Ravens Training Camp 2020

[DreamKid]

3 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

because you can’t consistently beat out players like a 31 year old McPhee and a rookie Ferguson and hold down a starting OLB spot.

Fans need to stop referencing this point like it carries weight. Chuck Clark is essentially the leader of our defense right now and was held back behind the worst performing player on our defense in Tony Jefferson for years. Only an injury to TJ created his ascension. 

5 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

And i don’t particularly take stock in those advanced metric numbers for a guy who plays such a rotational role as Bowser. Of course your efficiency numbers are going to look better when you’re on a snap count

Bowser's efficency numbers increased once he was given more opportunity. And putting no stock into advanced metrics is a great way to constantly find yourself behind in the eight ball with player analysis. 

9 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

And I think “flawless” in pass coverage and good against the run is vey hyperbolic. Watch some of Edgar Allen’s film breakdowns on YouTube...almost all of his praise is for Tyus’s potential, and there are serious blemishes, especially in working the run against the edge. And he rarely finishes, even when he puts together good pass rush combos. Most of his good plays on film are “see, Tyus could have made a big play here, had the QB not gone the other way...”.

This is all untrue, blatantly so. And the burden of proof isn't on those saying Tyus is a good player, it's on you. There's no real debate at this point. Our own coaches, the All-22 community, the analytics- they're all behind Tyus. 

13 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Why would I be biased against a player on my own team, lol?

IDK, it doesn't make sense to me either. But when your arguments boil down to why didn't a 21 Year Old jellyfish raw rookie beat out all the veterans on his team for playing time immediately, advanced metrics don't matter in this case, or just spewing pure falsehoods- you can't blame others for such an interpretation. 

I'm not attacking you either. You're entitled to feel any way you want about a player. It's just I've seen consistent dismissals of Bowser's play from you, and they come off as being in bad faith/poorly reasoned. I could understand feeling the way you do if you had limited access to information/analysis on the team, but you appear to be a deeper more engaged fan. So I don't get the disconnect, and I don't really notice it for any other player besides Tyus.

[wackywabbit]

2 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

He’s my “Chris Moore” until proven otherwise on the field...always seems to have good camps/potential and when the actual action comes we’re left wanting more...a lot more.

Hopefully he’ll ball out in a contract year though, and we get a 3rd round comp pick

I don't remember him getting too much buzz in camps past. We do have a history of these contract year pass rusher breakouts. He could certainly be the next Paul Kruger. 

[DreamKid]

9 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I don't remember him getting too much buzz in camps past.

There was praise here and there, but nothing substantial. He was always a top Preseason performer though. This is his most "hype-ey" camp yet.

I like Tyus, but I still don't see him getting inundated with snaps unless Judon gets hurt. They play the same position, and Judon is now pulling a 17 Mill cap hit. Plus Wink doesn't like fielding 2 Sam LBs at the same time for whatever reason. Then if we were to sign someone like Clowney too, I'd anticipate seeing even less of Tyus. 

Bowser's future with team hinges upon what happens with Judon going forward. 

21 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

He could certainly be the next Paul Kruger. 

IDK if he even gets enough time to build up that level of hype, let alone a ZDS max deal scenario. Plus he's not a scheme fit for every team. 

[Boodgyman5220]

Man, I feel like Tyus has been our most mismanaged players over the past 3 years. When I watch him play, I see a very instinctual player in all facets of the game. I legitimately don’t understand why he isn’t the starter at the other OLB position. Seems like the team wants to typecast him as judon’s replacement. He does everything well. Sure he might not be A+ everywhere but it just seems like when he’s on the field he makes an impact. I will be sad when he balls out this year and we can’t match what he’ll command on the market. I’ll feel worse If we let him go and sign Judon long term.

[Ray Reed]

2 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Fans need to stop referencing this point like it carries weight. Chuck Clark is essentially the leader of our defense right now and was held back behind the worst performing player on our defense in Tony Jefferson for years. Only an injury to TJ created his ascension. 

Bowser's efficency numbers increased once he was given more opportunity. And putting no stock into advanced metrics is a great way to constantly find yourself behind in the eight ball with player analysis. 

This is all untrue, blatantly so. And the burden of proof isn't on those saying Tyus is a good player, it's on you. There's no real debate at this point. Our own coaches, the All-22 community, the analytics- they're all behind Tyus. 

IDK, it doesn't make sense to me either. But when your arguments boil down to why didn't a 21 Year Old jellyfish raw rookie beat out all the veterans on his team for playing time immediately, advanced metrics don't matter in this case, or just spewing pure falsehoods- you can't blame others for such an interpretation. 

I'm not attacking you either. You're entitled to feel any way you want about a player. It's just I've seen consistent dismissals of Bowser's play from you, and they come off as being in bad faith/poorly reasoned. I could understand feeling the way you do if you had limited access to information/analysis on the team, but you appear to be a deeper more engaged fan. So I don't get the disconnect, and I don't really notice it for any other player besides Tyus.

I couldn’t wholeheartedly disagree more that it’s incumbent upon me - on my end - to prove that the #47 overall pick in the draft has been more potential than production and value at this point in his career when he’s heading into his 4th year with 46 career tackles, 8.5 career sacks, and 1 career INT/FF/FR.

I hope he proves me wrong. We’ll revisit this at the end of the season. But my guess? Another year of 40-50% of defensive snaps played, about 4-6 sacks, maybe a few PDs, and his next NFL team’s fans hyping themselves on mostly potential/athletic traits next offseason.

We’ll see. And I don’t mean to sound like i’m attacking you either - and I agree he has potential. That’s kind of my point though, that’s what most people base these high expectations of Tyus on. I just fundamentally disagree on whether he’s flipped that potential into actual 2nd round worthy value/impact/production up to this point in his career with the Ravens, and that’s a point I doubt either of us will come off of. 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by Ray Reed

[DreamKid]

4 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

to prove that the #47 overall pick in the draft has been more potential than production/value at this point in his career when he’s heading into his 4th year with 46 career tackles, 8.5 career sacks, and 1 career INT/FF/FR.

For me, saying "Tyus Bowser has flashed and played good on the snaps given to him, but I'd still like to see him in a starting role while producing at the same or a greater clip" is perfectly fine. I'd agree with that statement. I can't agree with sentiments like "Yea in your opinion Tyus flashed/displayed value but that doesn't matter/isn't true because of X,Y,Z and if he doesn't reach X thresholds regardless of context then he's failing". That's where I feel it's not fair to the player. 

13 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

I hope he proves me wrong. We’ll revisit this at the end of the season. But my guess? Another year of 40-50% of defensive snaps played, about 4-6 sacks, maybe a few PDs, and his next NFL team’s fans hyping themselves on mostly potential/athletic traits next offseason.

Honestly, I've mentioned it before but I don't think he plays all that much either. The difference is, I don't view that as a total indictment of his overall ability as you seem to. Which is where we have the disconnect. Like if Chuck Clark never got a starting nod or Jefferson never got injured and we watched Clark walk in FA. I wouldn't then call Clark a failure or place the blame on his shoulders. Good players can find themselves in bad situations. Trapped behind incumbents, favored Vets, etc. 

Bowser is really athletic, but his growth technically has been impressive to me. As has as his improved mental grasp of the game. Harbaugh himself said last year that "Tyus knows the defense as well as anybody on the team", which is in stark contrast to how he was as an up and down Rookie. He's diversified his pass rush skill set, you see the rip, long arm, speed to power. He's now reliable against the run(Some great stuffs in the Seahawks game) too. IDK, I'm just proud of how far he's come despite being given very limited opportunity. He has the kind of ethic I like to see in these young guys.

All that said, if he does under perform on a big or small sample size- I'll call him out for it. 

26 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

We’ll see. And I don’t mean to sound like i’m attacking you either - and I agree he has potential. I just fundamentally disagree on whether he’s flipped that potential into actual 2nd round worthy value/impact/production up to this point in his career with the Ravens, and that’s a point I doubt either of us will come off of. 

 

Yea, no. I didn't take it any bad way. I don't think his play has reached 2nd Round value/impact/production either. But I also don't think he's been given that kind of opportunity either, so you can't judge him based on that. I saw Bowser as a high potential project/raw young player we spent a 2nd Round Pick on. Now I see him as an ascending young player making great strides with both his impact and displayed development/growth- relative to opportunity and in many ways in spite of it. Which is all or more than we could've asked of him or any player in his situation.

IMO Best case scenario is EDC extends Bowser early for cheap. Tyus turns in a really promising 2020 season. We let Judon walk, and then use the saved money to pursue or extend another good player. 

Worst case scenario would be both Bowser and Judon take steps forward, only to have both walk in free agency. Leaving us with no established outside rusher. 

Our EDGE room could look insanely different in 2021. 

[diamondbull424]

 

[Danand]

I am mostly with RR here. We like to see the potential convert to more production "but he also has to be given the chance", well that is a conversation we have had before, and this is where I put some trust in the coaching staff (which might make me a sheep, but so be it).

I would like to see a new contract to Bowser in the mold of the one we gave Chuck Clark though. Judon has the more production but with all he does well, I can't get over how very little he wins 1on1 against tackles. Bowser on a 3 year cheaper deal would secure us a player ascending and have that outside linebacker with the ability to drop into coverage, and we would avoid throwing gold on the street by paying a little more now rather than waiting.

[diamondbull424]

7 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

The fact of the matter is Tyus Bowser is a lot closer to a Paul Kruger than he is to a Zadarius Smith in terms of impact at this point in his career.

I think its more fair to say he’s pretty evenly in the middle and thats mainly only because he didn’t see much of any playing time in 2018. It wasn’t like he was Kruger where all of his first two seasons were consistent in their low impact/production, then had a decent season in his 3rd. Bowser’s 2017 and 2019 seasons compare favorably in impact to Smith’s 2016 and either 2015/2017 seasons.

It’s worth noting that Bowser’s 2018 season where he had nonexistent impact that deflates his numbers had him in by far the deepest positional battle of the below guys within their first three seasons. Really when accounting for the number of sack artists they had to compete with off the edge over their first three seasons and comparing their production over that time, Bowser compares far more favorably to Smith in that level of sack density than Kruger.

Quote

Paul Kruger
Solos: 17
Notable Competition: Suggs, JJ, Barnes, McPhee
Personal vs Team Edge Sacks by year: 
0/13.5, 1/13.5, 5.5/27.5 = 6.5/55
Sack Density: 0.16
Best Season AV: 2

Za’Darius Smith
Solos: 45
Notable Competition: Suggs, Judon, Dumervil, Bowser, Williams
Personal vs Team Edge Sacks by year:
5.5/14.5, 1/17, 3.5/25.5 = 10/57
Sack Density: 0.29
Best Season AV: 3

Tyus Bowser
Solos: 35
Notable Competition: Suggs, Judon, Smith, Bowser, Williams, Ferguson, McPhee
Personal vs Team Edge Sacks by year:
3/25.5, 0.5/25, 5/20 = 8.5/70
Sack Density: 0.28
Best Season AV: 3

Both Kruger and ZDS alike doubled their highest AV in their contract season. If Bowser compares to either player then it spells plenty of impact in 2020 and we can anticipate him to be right around that double digit sack area. Personally, I’m in camp Bowser.

I think he’s shown more in limited snaps than Kruger had ever displayed in his first few seasons. Tbqh, I feel Bowser’s shown more with his limited opportunities than ZDS had shown when considering the additional opportunities. ZDS felt like hindsight was 20/20 regarding his ability, whereas Bowser feels like foresight is 20/20... similar to Chuck Clark. When Clark got in the game and received opportunities, he produced nearly every time with plays. We constantly heard excellent things about him in practice and his study habits were top notch. Bowser’s situation Is very parallel at this point. Hopefully it doesn’t take an injury to Judon for Bowser to finally get a true chance to shine on the field.

Edited August 26, 2020 by diamondbull424
Formatting errors

[DreamKid]

If you're comparing Smith's final year with us and Bowser last season. ZDS had more versatility as a pass rusher than Bowser, was obviously worse in coverage and I'd say they were about equal as run defenders. Again though, a lot more opportunity for Smith. 

They're similar in the technical leaps they've displayed on tape from year to year though. Which is why letting Bowser hit FA scares me.

2 hours ago, Danand said:

I would like to see a new contract to Bowser in the mold of the one we gave Chuck Clark though. Judon has the more production but with all he does well, I can't get over how very little he wins 1on1 against tackles. Bowser on a 3 year cheaper deal would secure us a player ascending and have that outside linebacker with the ability to drop into coverage, and we would avoid throwing gold on the street by paying a little more now rather than waiting.

^^^I think this is the prudent move. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

11 hours ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

Man, I feel like Tyus has been our most mismanaged players over the past 3 years. When I watch him play, I see a very instinctual player in all facets of the game. I legitimately don’t understand why he isn’t the starter at the other OLB position. Seems like the team wants to typecast him as judon’s replacement. He does everything well. Sure he might not be A+ everywhere but it just seems like when he’s on the field he makes an impact. I will be sad when he balls out this year and we can’t match what he’ll command on the market. I’ll feel worse If we let him go and sign Judon long term.

I'll never forget Pees essentially benching him for the rest of the season after he won ROTW in week 2 against the Browns with a pick and a sack. Our coaching staff over the last several years has mismanged several defensive players, not just Bowser. Whether it's drafting guys and converting them to positions they don't play, or just simply benching them in favor of worse people. We don't really have a good track record right now of managing our talent well on the defensive side of the ball, I don't think.

[M.10.E]

I've always disagreed with this topic. There's a LOT that can go on that we don't know about.

[DreamKid]

It sucks for a guy like Huntley that even though McSorley has faltered the Ravens could default to him regardless. COVID has given a big advantage to experienced players, even if it's just one year of experience like in Trace's case. 

 

 

[diamondbull424]

16 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

It sucks for a guy like Huntley that even though McSorley has faltered the Ravens could default to him regardless. COVID has given a big advantage to experienced players, even if it's just one year of experience like in Trace's case. 

Yeah that was my prediction. After watching Huntley it looked like he would bring more to the table, but the fact that McSorely has more experience within the offense, its hard not to feel he’d make for the more “reliable” backup in terms of being able to operate the entirety of the offense. While Huntley has superior ability from what I’ve scouted of them in college and from what the reports are from out of camp.

Hopefully no team has it in their plans to steal him off of our practice squad, if thats the route we’re ultimately forced to take. I suppose in a way COVID-19 might be a benefit in a situation like this as well where we could potentially get away with stashing one of the guys on the practice squad and opposing teams not know JUST how good they are with no preseason games to notice the talent.

[wackywabbit]

I don't see why we should McSorley on the 53 man roster. Are we worried another team will sign him in this weird season?