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Pettine's Gone, but Outpost is Back


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1 hour ago, MantyWrestler said:

As bad as that was, if Rivers has a little more time to look down field the Colt score. That WR flies past ever DB with ease as well when the clip stops to show our DB’s on their heal just beyond the first down. 

that makes it even worse.  They can beat us underneath for a first down or they can beat us over the top for a TD if the protection holds up.  We've got the 20-30 yard pickup covered though.

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Maybe the silver lining in all of this is that the defense does manage to create the third and long opportunities in the first place?  I wonder what their numbers would look like if they held at a typical rate in these situations.

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10 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

Maybe the silver lining in all of this is that the defense does manage to create the third and long opportunities in the first place?  I wonder what their numbers would look like if they held at a typical rate in these situations.

Somehow, we are actually slightly above average (#13 in the leage) at third down conversion on defense. Will try to find a split by distance to see if there's something regarding long ones, but as much as I hate Pettine, we also convert third and longs on offense often so I think we probably underestimate the league wide conversion rate on those.

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14 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Image

This is the alignment Pettine decided was the right plan for 3rd and 3. Let's note the Colts put Jacoby in, basically guaranteeing a run play. Yet, despite this, Pettine decided, "hey, against 5 OL and 1 TE, I'll go with 2 DL, 2 stand up OLBs, neither of who play the run particularly well, one 230-lb LB and a 200-lb safety as the other "linebacker." Somehow who is smarter than I am please explain to me how this alignment is supposed to stop the run on 3rd and 3?  

It isn't. That's a pass stopping alignment. Savage is so far back he's not even visible on the screen. You have 6 defenders to fill 7 gaps.

This is on the drive they ran it the whole way. I can't tell if we got beat on the pressure package and just never got the right personnel back on the field due to the hurry up and just weren't willing to call a timeout, or if they were running this on purpose. 

Asking an injured Clark to clean up the mess when dealing with Quenton Nelson was . . . ill conceived

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13 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I couldn't even tell you what this is it's so bad, cover 6??

With a gun to my head and minimal confidence, got to be Cover-4, right? With an overly eager top side slot corner, ball watching and ending up way too deep and outside? 

And a busted vertical/in combination pass-off by the safety on that side.

Jesus I hate it.

 

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I was just trying to see if I was just imagining it.  Yesterday when I started to check, I added all players, even IR, and even those who don't even see the field.  Then I just stuck with the top 22 based on depth charts/snap counts.  I'm not finished yet, but I wanted to see if you could kinda correlate defensive performance to average draft position of the players on defense. 

I've believed for a long time that was Belichick's secret to success.  Just getting all these high draft picks that kinda fizzled out on other teams and then giving them one single job, one single responsibility on defense and not expecting them to do too much.  Just a raw talent approach. 

My Lord if the Steelers aren't doing this.  They've got like 27 former first round picks on that defense. 

I used 275 for undrafted players .  Then I just add these up, top 22 defensive players for each team as close as I can approximate.  So if they had the 1st overall pick (1), the 19th overall pick (19) and an undrafted rookie (275), that average would be 98th overall. 

So far this is what I've got:

*Defensive rank.  *Team - *Average draft position of top 22 defenders. 

1. Steelers - 112
2. Rams - 142
3. Ravens - 122
4. Dolphins - 162



17. Packers - 126


20. Bills - 152

 

32. Cowboys - 140

Scheme and coaching are more important than talent. 

I kinda just randomly picked the teams ranked lower than the Packers, but I'm sure this would show that it is NOT a lack of talent for the Packers.  Out of the top 4 defenses on the year, only 2 have higher draft average picks.  If I get time later today I'll finish this up. 

Bottom line is that the Packers aren't any less talented than other teams.  We could essentially drop Gary and Savage and replace them with undrafted picks and still have the same amount of talent as the Dolphins on our defense.  You can't blame Gute for drafting them and call them busts until you see what they could do with a different coordinator. 
 

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Let's talk about this bull**** 3rd quarter operning drive

Hrr5DNV.png

Colts come out in the 12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs)

2 TEs means there is 8 gaps that the defense needs to cover in run defense.

To counter, the Packers come out in a Dime with 2 DL, 2 OLBs, 1 ILB, and 6 DBs. 

This isn't light personnel. Light Personnel would be the nickel. This is some ultra light bull****.

In addition to the ultra light personnel, we're playing without a safey in the box.

There wasn't a personnel shift by either the offense of the defense for 7 plays until the Colts got to the Packers 25 and put Brisset in at QB. There also wasn't a shift to get a safety into the box to assist.

The Colts ran the following plays:

(15:00) J.Taylor left end to IND 30 for 5 yards (D.Savage, K.King).

14:25) J.Taylor up the middle to IND 38 for 8 yards (C.Kirksey; A.Amos).

(13:59) (Shotgun) J.Taylor up the middle to IND 42 for 4 yards (K.King).

(13:30) J.Taylor up the middle to GB 40 for 18 yards (A.Amos).

(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Taylor right tackle to GB 33 for 7 yards (R.Greene).

(12:16) J.Taylor up the middle to GB 33 for no gain (A.Amos).

(11:31) (Shotgun) J.Wilkins left tackle to GB 25 for 8 yards (C.Sullivan). #7 Brissett in at QB for IND.

SEVEN consecutive runs that went for 50 damn yards. Amazingly pathetic performance by this defense. 

This is gifting teams points. Staright up not even trying to stop them. This is insane. 

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Let's talk about this bull**** 3rd quarter operning drive

Hrr5DNV.png

Colts come out in the 12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs)

2 TEs means there is 8 gaps that the defense needs to cover in run defense.

To counter, the Packers come out in a Dime with 2 DL, 2 OLBs, 1 ILB, and 6 DBs. 

This isn't light personnel. Light Personnel would be the nickel. This is some ultra light bull****.

In addition to the ultra light personnel, we're playing without a safey in the box.

There wasn't a personnel shift by either the offense of the defense for 7 plays until the Colts got to the Packers 25 and put Brisset in at QB. There also wasn't a shift to get a safety into the box to assist.

The Colts ran the following plays:

(15:00) J.Taylor left end to IND 30 for 5 yards (D.Savage, K.King).

14:25) J.Taylor up the middle to IND 38 for 8 yards (C.Kirksey; A.Amos).

(13:59) (Shotgun) J.Taylor up the middle to IND 42 for 4 yards (K.King).

(13:30) J.Taylor up the middle to GB 40 for 18 yards (A.Amos).

(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Taylor right tackle to GB 33 for 7 yards (R.Greene).

(12:16) J.Taylor up the middle to GB 33 for no gain (A.Amos).

(11:31) (Shotgun) J.Wilkins left tackle to GB 25 for 8 yards (C.Sullivan). #7 Brissett in at QB for IND.

SEVEN consecutive runs that went for 50 damn yards. Amazingly pathetic performance by this defense. 

This is gifting teams points. Staright up not even trying to stop them. This is insane. 

 

 

 

Top that off with the fact all the tackles were made by DB’ with an assist by one LB ok one play. 

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11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

With a gun to my head and minimal confidence, got to be Cover-4, right? With an overly eager top side slot corner, ball watching and ending up way too deep and outside? 

And a busted vertical/in combination pass-off by the safety on that side.

Jesus I hate it.

 

Biggest thing I get from this is how bad this group is at feeling route combos in zone.  Doesn't look like anyone on the field really is sure what's coming, and everybody drifts a different way, easily manipulated by QB eyes, until they're just a big amoeba just past the first down marker.  But then, even when they get a throw short of the sticks, none of them is really ready to come up and make the tackle, they all seem sure someone else will be there.  It's bad top to bottom.

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Let's talk about this bull**** 3rd quarter operning drive

Hrr5DNV.png

Colts come out in the 12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs)

2 TEs means there is 8 gaps that the defense needs to cover in run defense.

To counter, the Packers come out in a Dime with 2 DL, 2 OLBs, 1 ILB, and 6 DBs. 

This isn't light personnel. Light Personnel would be the nickel. This is some ultra light bull****.

In addition to the ultra light personnel, we're playing without a safey in the box.

There wasn't a personnel shift by either the offense of the defense for 7 plays until the Colts got to the Packers 25 and put Brisset in at QB. There also wasn't a shift to get a safety into the box to assist.

The Colts ran the following plays:

(15:00) J.Taylor left end to IND 30 for 5 yards (D.Savage, K.King).

14:25) J.Taylor up the middle to IND 38 for 8 yards (C.Kirksey; A.Amos).

(13:59) (Shotgun) J.Taylor up the middle to IND 42 for 4 yards (K.King).

(13:30) J.Taylor up the middle to GB 40 for 18 yards (A.Amos).

(12:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Taylor right tackle to GB 33 for 7 yards (R.Greene).

(12:16) J.Taylor up the middle to GB 33 for no gain (A.Amos).

(11:31) (Shotgun) J.Wilkins left tackle to GB 25 for 8 yards (C.Sullivan). #7 Brissett in at QB for IND.

SEVEN consecutive runs that went for 50 damn yards. Amazingly pathetic performance by this defense. 

This is gifting teams points. Staright up not even trying to stop them. This is insane. 

 

 

 

Pettine really seems determined to go down with this ship.  His bizarre shift into an analytics only, "the data says deep passes can hurt you" coach is really odd.  I'd always heard that in general his players loved him, even when the teams weren't successful.  Can you imagine anybody on the team stepping up to defend Pettine that way this year?  

He has to see this isn't working.  It wastes the talents of most of the best players on his team; looking at that embarrassing 3rd and 13 above for example, who is this supposed to be utilizing?  The pass rush is going 4 on 6, no stunts, no real represented blitzes (Kirksey isn't fooling anyone), against a very good OL group.  So you've pretty much negated Z and Clark now, and for that you get a lot of your best DBs covering grass, often poorly.  

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