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Analytics and Film breakdown on why Rodgers is no longer elite


TecmoSuperJoe

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While I’m willing to agree that Rodgers hasn’t been in his peak (which I consider 2011-2014). The concept of “elite” imo is such a subjective term that I don’t know if this proves it. Rodgers has always struggled in the areas the video is using. It’s just more apparent now because when you have less playmakers you need to be able to play more in the parameters of the scheme which he never has

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If we are talking first ballot HoF QB then he is that for sure. He is also still a very good QB at age 36 (37 in December)

If we are talking QB performance he is no longer a top 5 guy.

2019:

  • 12th in rating
  • 13th in TD%
  • 17th in ypa
  • 21st in completion%

2018

  • 13th in rating
  • 21st in TD%
  • 17th in ypa
  • 26th in completion%

 

Now check out way back in 2016 when he led the league in TDs

2016

  • 4th in rating
  • 2nd in TD%
  • 13th in ypa
  • 9th in completion%

You could even say he was elite before getting hurt in 2017 if you like (first 5 weeks)

 

He is a one trick pony at this point (TD/INT ratio) Its an awesome trick, but it does not always translate to on the field dominance

Green Bay's 3rd down conversion rate was 19th in 2019 and 22nd in 2018.

If you don't throw a pick on those downs but you throw incomplete, or get sacked, or get 6 yards on 3rd and 10; the other team still gets the ball.

Bad for the team, but not so bad for Aaron's TD/INT.

 

You also cant assume he is going to age like Brees and Brady because no one has aged like Brees and Brady before.

 

Note: I left out his INT% from his yearly stats because he is clearly the best. Its not even close.

If its the only thing you are the best at then you could be Neil O'Donnell or Donovan McNabb. (both were best at not throwing picks for a long stretch)

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The best Rodgers stat is this. He is a 78 rated passer over 4 NFCCGs (6 TDs to 7 picks) but people cry that Green Bay did not put a good enough team on the field for him. 

  • This does not include the 15-1 team from 2011.
    • He put up a 78.5 rating in that game
  • Man, the TV talking head idiots love to cry about victim Rodgers not having more Super Bowls.
  • He was amazing in his Super Bowl, but the misinformed scuttlebutt is about why he has only been to one.

The answer is the guy from the State Farm commercials was not good enough in those games.

If only his play on the field in NFCCGs was as good as his PR machine.

  • 1st half vs SF - 0 points
  • 1st half vs Atlanta - 0 points
  • 2nd half vs Chicago - 0 offensive points (Raji scored a defensive TD in a 21-14 win)
  • 2nd half vs Seattle - 6 points
Edited by SkippyX
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21 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

The best Rodgers stat is this. He is a 78 rated passer over 4 NFCCGs (6 TDs to 7 picks) but people cry that Green Bay did not put a good enough team on the field for him. 

  • This does not include the 15-1 team from 2011.
    • He put up a 78.5 rating in that game
  • Man, the TV talking head idiots love to cry about victim Rodgers not having more Super Bowls.
  • He was amazing in his Super Bowl, but the misinformed scuttlebutt is about why he has only been to one.

The answer is the guy from the State Farm commercials was not good enough in those games.

If only his play on the field in NFCCGs was as good as his PR machine.

  • 1st half vs SF - 0 points
  • 1st half vs Atlanta - 0 points
  • 2nd half vs Chicago - 0 offensive points (Raji scored a defensive TD in a 21-14 win)
  • 2nd half vs Seattle - 6 points

To be fair, both can be true. I won't argue that he was fantastic against San Fran, for instance, but at the same time, I don't know that there's anything he could've done that would've turned that game into a win with how the defense just straight up laid down and gave up.

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And to be absolutely clear there was some serious bad mojo in that Seahawks game

You also had a Kuhn fumble and a Crosby missed kick in the Falcons game.

He was still not good enough.

 

Also a GM that builds a Super Bowl champion that goes 15-1 the next year is not doing a bad job..

Edited by SkippyX
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I stopped watching when the person said "today, we will discover why, in the last 5 years, he has not been an elite QB" o.O (while ignoring factors)

His "decline" is still better than most QB's in the league.  It seems to me that Rodgers had set the bar so high for himself during his "prime"(and I use that loosely) that unless he continued to progress from that point most would see it as a let down . While, again, ignoring other factors.  

 

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16 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Is there even actual determination for "Elite" I mean a Pro Bowler is a Pro Bowler, All Pro is an All Pro, etc...but Elite is baseless term, much like Superstar.

Your guess is as good as mine. You're asking this to a bunch of people who also wanna label damn near every QB in the league as a "franchise Qb". 

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"When charting Rodgers' film, it's important to focus on his down-in, down-out consistency rather than his flashy highlights."

This was arguably the best line of the video. More casual fans judge him on the highlights. Anyone paying attention play to play and game to game can see that he hasn't been close to his peak for a few years now. And yes, most of the advanced passing stats bear this out. He hasn't been top 5 in DYAR or DVOA since 2014.

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8 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Is there even actual determination for "Elite" I mean a Pro Bowler is a Pro Bowler, All Pro is an All Pro, etc...but Elite is baseless term, much like Superstar.

The other terms you listed are also subjective. The only difference is that there is an "award" behind it via an unorthodox voting process. Just like the NFL Top 100. But each term denotes an individual or individuals who are supposedly the best players among their peers. If Alex Rollins had switched out the word "elite" for Pro Bowler or All Pro, I'm not sure why that should merit more credibility. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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41 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

The other terms you listed are also subjective. The only difference is that there is an "award" behind it via an unorthodox voting process. Just like the NFL Top 100. But each term denotes an individual or individuals who are supposedly the best players among their peers. If Alex Rollins had switched out the word "elite" for Pro Bowler or All Pro, I'm not sure why that should merit more credibility. 

If someone is a pro bowler you can call them a pro bowler and it cannot be refuted, same as All Pro. But Elite is baseless, it cannot be proven. 

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2 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

If someone is a pro bowler you can call them a pro bowler and it cannot be refuted, same as All Pro. But Elite is baseless, it cannot be proven. 

What do these QBs have in common?

  • Andy Dalton
  • Mitchell Trubisky
  • Matt Schaub
  • RG III
  • Matt Cassel
  • Vince Young
  • David Garrard
  • Tyrod Taylor
  • Teddy Bridgewater
  • Jameis Winston
    • The last three of these guys made the 2015 squad which had 11 pro bowl QBs

Winning a randomized popularity contest to play in a meaningless exhibition game where 2 of the top 6 QBs are typically busy playing in the Super Bowl is meaningless.

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On 8/17/2020 at 2:07 AM, SkippyX said:

The best Rodgers stat is this. He is a 78 rated passer over 4 NFCCGs (6 TDs to 7 picks) but people cry that Green Bay did not put a good enough team on the field for him. 

  • This does not include the 15-1 team from 2011.
    • He put up a 78.5 rating in that game
  • Man, the TV talking head idiots love to cry about victim Rodgers not having more Super Bowls.
  • He was amazing in his Super Bowl, but the misinformed scuttlebutt is about why he has only been to one.

The answer is the guy from the State Farm commercials was not good enough in those games.

If only his play on the field in NFCCGs was as good as his PR machine.

  • 1st half vs SF - 0 points
  • 1st half vs Atlanta - 0 points
  • 2nd half vs Chicago - 0 offensive points (Raji scored a defensive TD in a 21-14 win)
  • 2nd half vs Seattle - 6 points

Stats like this are annoying.. Against really good defenses on the road Rodgers had bad halves..... that is pretty much every QB... The only game of these that GB wasn't a 7 point underdog was vs Chicago, which they won (but oh man, he didn't throw for a TD so he sucks).

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