JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 So most of you have an idea of where you're picking and/or a strategy but what are your best and worst case scenarios? Be realistic, you aren't getting CMC at 4 Round 1: #8 overall Best Case: 2-3 Non-RBs get drafted in the first 7 picks and I'm left with the best RB available Worst Case: RBs all go 1-7 and I'm stuck in a RB purgatory of no real difference between #8 and #12 or take Michael Thomas Likelihood?: Somewhere in between, I do think its very possible that RB goes 1-7 however this league is weird with QBs. LJax was phenomenal last year and could go early but his ADP might make people think twice(I hate online drafts for this reason) Michael Thomas is also very good Round 2: #17 overall Best Case: 2 QBs are off the board and the run on WR begins leaving either Travis Kelce or one of the best RBs Worst Case: Kelce is gone, people are still waiting on taking QBs, they realize the dropoff at RB is coming before the end of round 2 and also that the difference between the 2nd best WR and the 8th best is small Likelihood? I think Kelce lasts, this league tends to devalue TEs a bit. Last year I got Julio at 17 last year so I think the WRs will continue to fall. I do think I'll be fine this round assuming 2 Non-RBs are drafted in the first 16 picks How do you guys see your big drafts playing out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 31 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: So most of you have an idea of where you're picking and/or a strategy but what are your best and worst case scenarios? Be realistic, you aren't getting CMC at 4 Round 1: #8 overall Best Case: 2-3 Non-RBs get drafted in the first 7 picks and I'm left with the best RB available Worst Case: RBs all go 1-7 and I'm stuck in a RB purgatory of no real difference between #8 and #12 or take Michael Thomas Likelihood?: Somewhere in between, I do think its very possible that RB goes 1-7 however this league is weird with QBs. LJax was phenomenal last year and could go early but his ADP might make people think twice(I hate online drafts for this reason) Michael Thomas is also very good Round 2: #17 overall Best Case: 2 QBs are off the board and the run on WR begins leaving either Travis Kelce or one of the best RBs Worst Case: Kelce is gone, people are still waiting on taking QBs, they realize the dropoff at RB is coming before the end of round 2 and also that the difference between the 2nd best WR and the 8th best is small Likelihood? I think Kelce lasts, this league tends to devalue TEs a bit. Last year I got Julio at 17 last year so I think the WRs will continue to fall. I do think I'll be fine this round assuming 2 Non-RBs are drafted in the first 16 picks How do you guys see your big drafts playing out? Tbh my worst case is at 4-7 I hate those spots in mock drafts. Tbh I'm not to worried if I miss out if RBs go 1-7 which I doubt will happen. But if it does just take Thomas and move on. As long as your drafting tier base you should be fine moving on to another position. I think making sure you have RB depth after Thomas is more important then getting Kelce. I'm only drafting Kelce or kittle in the 2nd if I'm in a 10 team league or they fall badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 11 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: So most of you have an idea of where you're picking and/or a strategy but what are your best and worst case scenarios? Be realistic, you aren't getting CMC at 4 Round 1: #8 overall Best Case: 2-3 Non-RBs get drafted in the first 7 picks and I'm left with the best RB available Worst Case: RBs all go 1-7 and I'm stuck in a RB purgatory of no real difference between #8 and #12 or take Michael Thomas Likelihood?: Somewhere in between, I do think its very possible that RB goes 1-7 however this league is weird with QBs. LJax was phenomenal last year and could go early but his ADP might make people think twice(I hate online drafts for this reason) Michael Thomas is also very good Round 2: #17 overall Best Case: 2 QBs are off the board and the run on WR begins leaving either Travis Kelce or one of the best RBs Worst Case: Kelce is gone, people are still waiting on taking QBs, they realize the dropoff at RB is coming before the end of round 2 and also that the difference between the 2nd best WR and the 8th best is small Likelihood? I think Kelce lasts, this league tends to devalue TEs a bit. Last year I got Julio at 17 last year so I think the WRs will continue to fall. I do think I'll be fine this round assuming 2 Non-RBs are drafted in the first 16 picks How do you guys see your big drafts playing out? R1: 7th overall Best Case: CEH or Josh Jacobs. CEH is going to be a monster in PPR leagues and I think LVR is a hair better so Jacobs will get more work, probably more carries than receptions. We get .5 per carry. I'll add Ekeler here too as I see him as the only other RB I'd consider in R1. Worst Case: All three RBs I am looking at are gone and I have to "settle" for Kelce. Likelihood: I think a mix of both cases. I'll have to make a choice between Kelce or Ekeler R2: 18th overall I think overall since the WR position is so deep, I see a RB/RB/TE start for me. I'd be ok if I have to pick a QB, prefer Lamar but he's due for some regression so it makes me lean Mahomes. I love me some Arob, Thielen or DJ Moore but I think Elite TE > mid-range WR1. Best Case: Kittle(if I pass or miss out on Kelce), one of the remaining top 12 WRs(Theilen, Moore, Arob) Worst Case: Lamar Jackson or Mahomes. I miss out on the three RBs in R1 so in R2, I have to take a chance on Bell, David Johnson or Melvin Gordon(Since I would like to at-least have 2 RBs after R2). Another Worst case scenario is missing out on Thielen, Moore and Arob. Likelihood: By pick 18, I'll have Ekeler and Chubb(Keeper). Kittle is there at 18th and I make him the pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 18, 2020 Author Share Posted August 18, 2020 (edited) 22 hours ago, 49erurtaza said: Tbh my worst case is at 4-7 I hate those spots in mock drafts. Tbh I'm not to worried if I miss out if RBs go 1-7 which I doubt will happen. But if it does just take Thomas and move on. As long as your drafting tier base you should be fine moving on to another position. I think making sure you have RB depth after Thomas is more important then getting Kelce. I'm only drafting Kelce or kittle in the 2nd if I'm in a 10 team league or they fall badly. I know Thomas is good but every mock ive done the WRs are there later. I certainly wouldn't take Kelce if I went with Thomas round 1 though. Why do you hate Pick 4? I think Pick 4 is a great spot to be in Edited August 18, 2020 by JaguarCrazy2832 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I know Thomas is good but every mock ive done the WRs are there later. I certainly wouldn't take Kelce if I went with Thomas round 1 though. Why do you hate Pick 4? I think Pick 4 is a great spot to be in It's more on the rest of the draft, I feel like my teams better with later pick. I'm not a fan of being towards the back end in the 2nd if I don't get one of the top 3 RBs in the 1st. You know what I mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said: It's more on the rest of the draft, I feel like my teams better with later pick. I'm not a fan of being towards the back end in the 2nd if I don't get one of the top 3 RBs in the 1st. You know what I mean. I guess so but im guessing you play PPR because I’d love my 2nd/3rd round options picking 4th in a standard league as well as my 1st Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I guess so but im guessing you play PPR because I’d love my 2nd/3rd round options picking 4th in a standard league as well as my 1st Yeah I play half point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 9 hours ago, 49erurtaza said: Yeah I play half point Who dont you like in that 22-28 range though? on my board, I have 27 players that I'd love to start and would love to draft in the first 3 rounds. I know the 3rd for #4 is 28 but I have a few guys with ADPs not in the Top-30 that are in my Top-27 so I wouldn't have worried Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 How early is too early for Kittle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: How early is too early for Kittle? To be honest, I think Kittle is one of the more risky pickups early this year. San Francisco does not have much at WR especially after the injuries so Kittle could either get a ton of targets or will be the main key for defenses and struggle for looks. I would probably stay away until the early 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 20, 2020 Author Share Posted August 20, 2020 37 minutes ago, winitall said: To be honest, I think Kittle is one of the more risky pickups early this year. San Francisco does not have much at WR especially after the injuries so Kittle could either get a ton of targets or will be the main key for defenses and struggle for looks. I would probably stay away until the early 3rd. I get that but at the same time wasn't he pretty keyed on last year too? Plus their OL/running game is so good and important that I'd think defenses cant afford to double team Kittle for too long. I think Ertz had a similar situation last year and he still did fine. Eagles had no WRs at all and a lesser running game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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