Nomar’s arc before the injuries...

[DirtyDez]

97’ (23 years old)- 306/.342/.534 (ROY)

98’ - .323/.363/.584 - 7.3 fWAR

99’ - .357/.418/.603 - 6.3 fWAR (5 home runs in the 99’ playoffs)

00’ - .372/.434/.599 - 7.6 fWAR

In 01’ the wrist injury happens and he’s never the same but still put together a couple 5 WAR seasons.  How great would he have been if he stayed healthy?

[mse326]

Honestly I don't think the wrist was an issue. There were other injuries, it wasn't just the wrist. His body started breaking down at 30. It was an achilles injury that forced him out of Boston and then a pretty significant groin injury that combined to miss a lot of time and move off SS. He was still hitting fine when healthy so I think the career changing effect of the wrist injury is overstated. I think his early decline is much more about the lower body injuries since so much of hitting comes from there.

[GSUeagles14]

13 hours ago, mse326 said:

Honestly I don't think the wrist was an issue. There were other injuries, it wasn't just the wrist. His body started breaking down at 30. It was an achilles injury that forced him out of Boston and then a pretty significant groin injury that combined to miss a lot of time and move off SS. He was still hitting fine when healthy so I think the career changing effect of the wrist injury is overstated. I think his early decline is much more about the lower body injuries since so much of hitting comes from there.

theres undoubtedly a dropoff from when he was in his mid 20's pre wrist injury to late 20's post wrist/pre lower body. statistically, its almost the same dropoff from when he had his muscle/achilles issues . Im really confused when you say you dont think the wrist was an issue. Based on what? as i already said. theres a clear dropoff so is it just your guess?

 

to answer the op, he should have been a no doubt hofer. its sad that it didnt happen and was pretty much directly attributable to injuries. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

13 hours ago, mse326 said:

Honestly I don't think the wrist was an issue. There were other injuries, it wasn't just the wrist. His body started breaking down at 30. It was an achilles injury that forced him out of Boston and then a pretty significant groin injury that combined to miss a lot of time and move off SS. He was still hitting fine when healthy so I think the career changing effect of the wrist injury is overstated. I think his early decline is much more about the lower body injuries since so much of hitting comes from there.

If there's one guy who I think Nomar's arc resembles, it's Tulo. 

[mse326]

3 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

theres undoubtedly a dropoff from when he was in his mid 20's pre wrist injury to late 20's post wrist/pre lower body. statistically, its almost the same dropoff from when he had his muscle/achilles issues . Im really confused when you say you dont think the wrist was an issue. Based on what? as i already said. theres a clear dropoff so is it just your guess?

 

to answer the op, he should have been a no doubt hofer. its sad that it didnt happen and was pretty much directly attributable to injuries. 

The drop off wasn't anywhere close to the same as the leg issues.

rWAR pre injury 6.6, 7.1, 6.6, 7.4
rWAR in the 2 years inbetween wrist and lower body 6.8, 6.1

wRC+ pre 122, 139, 157, 154
post 127, 124

His ISO pre .228, .262, .246, .247
post .217, .223

There wasn't a major drop off if at all. Did you expect him to be a consistent .350 hitter? That just isn't reasonable. The biggest drop in those 2 years was on defense more than hitting which I don't know why you''d attribute to the wrist injury. Did the wrist have a small effect? Probably, but nothing major. He was still hitting over .300 with 25+ HRs and was a 6 WAR player.

[DirtyDez]

Went back to something other than Wiki regarding the wrist injury.  Sounds like it was an issue before 01’ when the tendon split and required surgery...
 

And then came the season Garciaparra turned 27 years old, in 2001. Nomar's career didn't go off the rails, but it definitely came to a fork -- in the form a split tendon in his wrist. Garciaparra had complained as far back as 1999 about discomfort in his wrist, but it wasn't anything that appeared to hamper his swing. He won consecutive batting titles in '99 and 2000. And then came the following spring training.

Morgan later described the damage, along with the amount of surgery required to fix it, as significant. After missing most of '01, Garcia returned in 2002 and '03 to have very good seasons -- All-Star seasons -- but his offensive output had gone from the stratosphere to something closer to Earth. He wasn't quite the same. Then came 2004, when Nomar had turned 30, and other injuries began to creep in, starting with a bad groin. He also was traded to the Cubs in the midst of what became Boston's first world championship season season since 1918. After playing in back-to-back 156-game seasons in 2002 and '03, he never again played in more than 122 games.

 

[DirtyDez]

8 hours ago, mse326 said:

The drop off wasn't anywhere close to the same as the leg issues.

rWAR pre injury 6.6, 7.1, 6.6, 7.4
rWAR in the 2 years inbetween wrist and lower body 6.8, 6.1

wRC+ pre 122, 139, 157, 154
post 127, 124

His ISO pre .228, .262, .246, .247
post .217, .223

There wasn't a major drop off if at all. Did you expect him to be a consistent .350 hitter? That just isn't reasonable. The biggest drop in those 2 years was on defense more than hitting which I don't know why you''d attribute to the wrist injury. Did the wrist have a small effect? Probably, but nothing major. He was still hitting over .300 with 25+ HRs and was a 6 WAR player.

So post injury Nomar = peak Jeter basically given the defensive drop off...

[GSUeagles14]

8 hours ago, mse326 said:

The drop off wasn't anywhere close to the same as the leg issues.

rWAR pre injury 6.6, 7.1, 6.6, 7.4
rWAR in the 2 years inbetween wrist and lower body 6.8, 6.1

wRC+ pre 122, 139, 157, 154
post 127, 124

His ISO pre .228, .262, .246, .247
post .217, .223

There wasn't a major drop off if at all. Did you expect him to be a consistent .350 hitter? That just isn't reasonable. The biggest drop in those 2 years was on defense more than hitting which I don't know why you''d attribute to the wrist injury. Did the wrist have a small effect? Probably, but nothing major. He was still hitting over .300 with 25+ HRs and was a 6 WAR player.

yes, it was reasonable to think that he would continue to post 150 wRC seasons, if not better. instead that was his peak, amd it fell 20% directly after.

 

20% isnt significant to you? and why arent you using fangraphs, which has pretty mich become the standard. unless you have an attachment to b reference, its because the war dropoff on fangraphs is steeper.

[mse326]

50 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

yes, it was reasonable to think that he would continue to post 150 wRC seasons, if not better. instead that was his peak, amd it fell 20% directly after.

 

20% isnt significant to you? and why arent you using fangraphs, which has pretty mich become the standard. unless you have an attachment to b reference, its because the war dropoff on fangraphs is steeper.

His wRC+ gain was was almost all due to BA. There have been a total of 54 seasons since 1945 that a player has hit .350 or above. Only 7 have done it more than the twice Nomar did. It is not reasonable to expect him to continue that. History strongly suggests otherwise.

I used rWAR because I had it open. For pitchers I prefer fWAR for seasons and rWAR for career. Don't have a strong feeling on either for offense. I prefer fWAR's use of wRC+ instead over OPS+ but rWAR's use of drs over UZR. But since I also posted wRC+ it isn't much of an issue. fWAR is only slightly less kind: 
6.4, 7.3, 6.3, 7.6 before and 4.8 and 5.8 after. So his first season back was a bit anomolous but it pretty much came back up in his 2nd where the difference was mostly defense based.

So to say it was the wrist you'd have to say 1. His previous 2 years are his normal which is highly speculative and counter to history and 2. That his 1st year back rather than his 2nd year back was going to be his new normal. I don't see either of those as accurate.

And to suggest it was the same drop as after the leg injuries is just absurd. at most you are looking at a 1.5 WAR drop from a MVP to All Star player for the wrist. And the leg was like a 4+ WAR drop to not even starting caliber. The degree of difference is far greater.

[GSUeagles14]

45 minutes ago, mse326 said:

His wRC+ gain was was almost all due to BA. There have been a total of 54 seasons since 1945 that a player has hit .350 or above. Only 7 have done it more than the twice Nomar did. It is not reasonable to expect him to continue that. History strongly suggests otherwise.

I used rWAR because I had it open. For pitchers I prefer fWAR for seasons and rWAR for career. Don't have a strong feeling on either for offense. I prefer fWAR's use of wRC+ instead over OPS+ but rWAR's use of drs over UZR. But since I also posted wRC+ it isn't much of an issue. fWAR is only slightly less kind: 
6.4, 7.3, 6.3, 7.6 before and 4.8 and 5.8 after. So his first season back was a bit anomolous but it pretty much came back up in his 2nd where the difference was mostly defense based.

So to say it was the wrist you'd have to say 1. His previous 2 years are his normal which is highly speculative and counter to history and 2. That his 1st year back rather than his 2nd year back was going to be his new normal. I don't see either of those as accurate.

And to suggest it was the same drop as after the leg injuries is just absurd. at most you are looking at a 1.5 WAR drop from a MVP to All Star player for the wrist. And the leg was like a 4+ WAR drop to not even starting caliber. The degree of difference is far greater.

yes, i think nomar was that special, hence the hof comment. how many hofers have done thing that are kind of irrelevant but the first or second to do them regardless. And even lets say his ba drops a little, its completely reasonable to think we see an uptick in power which tends to happen as guys mature. Instead, his highest iso was in his 25/26 season... kinda unusual.  Oh and in nomars 2nd year back, his war was inflated by a defensive rating that appear flukey given we had already seen decline with the glove at that point. on top of that, youre trying to ignore the age aspect. On average, defense gets worse as guys age, obviously nomars injuries played a part but who knows how much. Age certainly cant be ignored in the decline though.

 

But we're getting way too much into the unquantifiable at the point, ill just end it with i find it extremely foolish to say the wrist didnt affect him that much when we know he lost 20% of his production at the plate directly after. 

 

[redsoxsuck05]

On 8/21/2020 at 10:04 PM, DirtyDez said:

So post injury Nomar = peak Jeter basically given the defensive drop off...

No. He was never a better peak performer than Jeter, pre or post injury. His peak was more concentrated in his 20s while Jeter was more up-and-down, but Jeter's best seasons are on-par with Nomar's best seasons.

[DirtyDez]

On 8/23/2020 at 9:53 PM, redsoxsuck05 said:

No. He was never a better peak performer than Jeter, pre or post injury. His peak was more concentrated in his 20s while Jeter was more up-and-down, but Jeter's best seasons are on-par with Nomar's best seasons.

Nomar was a slugger so prime vs prime isn’t a fair fight.  

[Fresh Prince]

Would’ve been better than Jeter.

[mission27]

On 8/30/2020 at 6:23 PM, Fresh Prince said:

Would’ve been better than Jeter.

Never would've had Jeter's accomplishments though.

[DirtyDez]

On 9/10/2020 at 9:05 PM, mission27 said:

Never would've had Jeter's accomplishments though.

Shots fired at Mia Hamm...