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Rookie RBs


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2 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Is he going to get his big payday if he doesnt ball out though? I think him playing 16 games to not get hurt means he loses money as well

I’d say yes. If he plays and gets hurt, let’s say it’s the knee again, he’s really gonna be damaged goods. Against balling out for 6 games (plus maybe playoffs) and adding that to his monster year last year? I think the risk of getting hurt during the course of a 16 is too great to jeopardize his next contract.  Just my opinion, he might feel differently and go out and play regardless, I think him sitting at least some games is a possibility 

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7 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

But the deadline to opt out is done? Also Schefter said this about cook: If he doesn't have a deal before week 1 then drafting Cook would give him some pause...

I may have missed it but I thought I read that players had until the deadline “or later” to opt out. Did that change?

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6 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Is he going to get his big payday if he doesnt ball out though? I think him playing 16 games to not get hurt means he loses money as well

Maybe he does.  It's a stacked free agent RB class so he's likely not feeling fantastic about getting banks regardless.  For that reason, I feel like there's still leverage to be realized on his part, but that comes largely from balling out early - and the Vikings possibly being in a position where they're in the thick of it for a top seed in the NFC.  If, in that situation, Cook becomes a bit more conservative about how hard he's willing to push through on strains or bone bruises, fan pressure may get him some push for that extension.  Ultimately he's still got to feel like his best chance at the most money will come from Minny - the money/flexibility will be they once Cousins contract is either off the book or renegotiated as part of a further extension.

 

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Amazing post, fantastic context, thank you!

On 8/25/2020 at 6:24 PM, The LBC said:

Akers... the Rams OL isn't bad.

I expect the rams to be committed to running the ball this year. They were in 2017 and 18 but in 19 Mcvay was pass happy, especially mid-later in the season. By the end he started running more, and the team played better, but there was a solid month where the rams abandoned the run game very early in games.  

I expect whit being a G will be a plus, its a natural move for him now because he does not move well. So I am with you that the rams OL will be better this year than last.

I liked what I saw of henderson in the preseason last year iirc. @jrry32 likes to blame him for that *** kicking the niners gave the rams in week 5, because he fumbled. Mcvay hardly used him after that game and then fired his RB coach this offseason. I argue that not giving this kid more run and committing to the run game was the single biggest mistake mcvay made last year

Malcom Brown is unspectacular. He isnt actually good at anything. Hes just kinda there. No real skills imo. He will certainly be the best pass blocker of the bunch, the 'reliability' factor is probably the only thing he has going for him in real life, which really limits his fantasy upside imo

So prior to akers getting drafted, I was all over henderson for fantasy this year. Then they drafted akers, and spent a relatively premium pick on him to boot. Its really hard for me to see them not give akers a lot of run this year as the year goes on. I think they realize now how much of a mistake it was to not play henderson more last year, because he lacks a lot of game experience despite a year with the playbook, and so its possible they will try and rotate guys more than they have in the past. Its also possible they flat out dont trust henderson and didnt like him as much once they got him in the building

Akers is a perfect scheme fit and is the best receiver of the three of them. He is worth an upside pick in a lot of scenarios after snagging two better runners early. Sometimes you need to weather the storm early so that you can have horses you can ride at the end of the year come playoff time. there is certainly a lot of risk there, but the shanahan scheme puts up numbers so I think its worth a shot here

(I did see Aaron Donald treat Cam Akers like he usually treats Matt Breida on hardknocks. Threw him like a rag doll while ripping the ball out of his hands. Honestly, donald making breida look like a child was the beginning of the end for Breida in SF. Was also fitting to see soft goff worried about the pressure in a scrimmage where no one will tackle him LOL)  

 

On 8/25/2020 at 6:24 PM, The LBC said:

Moss... they've practically confirmed his getting Frank Gore's snaps and I'd expect near identical usage. 

This guy really grew on me as draft season went on. He is big, strong, and moves very well. Hes a better receiver than singletary, on an offense that will run the ball a lot yes, but they also have some better weapons to throw the ball with diggs now. Diggs/brown are good deep threats and teams will have to respect allens arm strength in passing situations. Moss is going to start on 3rd down duty and I think he will have some space underneath. I think he is going to make some plays in this offense and I am planning on taking him in the 10th or 11th

 

Also, while I have you here @The LBC, which runner do you prefer taking a late round flier on, Justin Jackson or Boston Scott? I will even add Kareem Hunt in there for a bonus round. curious to hear @Forges take on this as well. Thanks guys

 

Here is a question for this thread, how does no preseason affect the 'rookie wall' that some running backs can find themselves hitting in week 13 or so as the college season would normally be ending?

 

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12 minutes ago, N4L said:

Amazing post, fantastic context, thank you!

I expect the rams to be committed to running the ball this year. They were in 2017 and 18 but in 19 Mcvay was pass happy, especially mid-later in the season. By the end he started running more, and the team played better, but there was a solid month where the rams abandoned the run game very early in games.  

I expect whit being a G will be a plus, its a natural move for him now because he does not move well. So I am with you that the rams OL will be better this year than last.

I liked what I saw of henderson in the preseason last year iirc. @jrry32 likes to blame him for that *** kicking the niners gave the rams in week 5, because he fumbled. Mcvay hardly used him after that game and then fired his RB coach this offseason. I argue that not giving this kid more run and committing to the run game was the single biggest mistake mcvay made last year

Malcom Brown is unspectacular. He isnt actually good at anything. Hes just kinda there. No real skills imo. He will certainly be the best pass blocker of the bunch, the 'reliability' factor is probably the only thing he has going for him in real life, which really limits his fantasy upside imo

So prior to akers getting drafted, I was all over henderson for fantasy this year. Then they drafted akers, and spent a relatively premium pick on him to boot. Its really hard for me to see them not give akers a lot of run this year as the year goes on. I think they realize now how much of a mistake it was to not play henderson more last year, because he lacks a lot of game experience despite a year with the playbook, and so its possible they will try and rotate guys more than they have in the past. Its also possible they flat out dont trust henderson and didnt like him as much once they got him in the building

Akers is a perfect scheme fit and is the best receiver of the three of them. He is worth an upside pick in a lot of scenarios after snagging two better runners early. Sometimes you need to weather the storm early so that you can have horses you can ride at the end of the year come playoff time. there is certainly a lot of risk there, but the shanahan scheme puts up numbers so I think its worth a shot here

(I did see Aaron Donald treat Cam Akers like he usually treats Matt Breida on hardknocks. Threw him like a rag doll while ripping the ball out of his hands. Honestly, donald making breida look like a child was the beginning of the end for Breida in SF. Was also fitting to see soft goff worried about the pressure in a scrimmage where no one will tackle him LOL)  

1. Henderson wasn't ready for more run last year. That was obvious. I don't hate the kid, but the truth is the truth. Dropping that pitch was 10 to 14 point swing. I'm still hopeful on him. You can't teach his explosiveness, and he's not an easy guy to tackle.

2. You're selling Brown short. He's a very average player, but saying he has no skills isn't accurate. He blocks and catches the ball well. Plodding runner, but he gets what's blocked.

3. Whitworth isn't moving to OG, as far as I know. And his movement skills are still quite impressive.

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CEH I would take in the late first.  I like his upside better than Chubb, Jacobs, Mixon etc.  

I am higher on Taylor than most I think, and would consider him in the 3rd compared to some of the duds that are being drafted there.  His size and speed combo will get him snaps and I think he has a great year.  I am not touching Mack as I think he sort of fades away as the season goes on.  

Swift I am nervous on just because the Lions are likely going to Lion and blow his knees out or just never run the ball.  

Vaughn is likely one who will be dropped this year, wouldnt touch him if not in a dynasty league.  

Moss I would definitely like as a handcuff to DS but and would consider him late as a bench RB with upside.  

Akers I am iffy on.  I didn't love him as a prospect and I dont love his situation in LA.  I would rather ride Henderson at a much cheaper price.  Just because they spent a high pick on him doesnt mean he will play, similar to Penny in Seattle, if someone is better than him and I think Henderson is. 

Other rookie RBs I like:
Antonio Gibson - With Guice gone and AP aging, I think he has a chance to make some waves.  He has crazy speed and should at least be a great check down guy for Haskins.  

Darrynton Evans - I loved him as a prospect and then he went to the Titans and it killed a lot of that excitement.  I think he still gets a few carries a game behind Henry and will be an easy add if Henry gets hurt or if they try to save Henry's legs some.  

 

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12 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I’d say yes. If he plays and gets hurt, let’s say it’s the knee again, he’s really gonna be damaged goods. Against balling out for 6 games (plus maybe playoffs) and adding that to his monster year last year? I think the risk of getting hurt during the course of a 16 is too great to jeopardize his next contract.  Just my opinion, he might feel differently and go out and play regardless, I think him sitting at least some games is a possibility 

First off, if he misses the 1st 10 games, you really think Minnesota makes the playoffs?

2nd if he sits out all those games, I cant imagine he'll be 100% ready to go. He'll be starting off much slower. Can he afford 1-2 bad games because he's not up to game speed and then maybe a bad in the next 4 just because it happens?

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12 hours ago, titanrick said:

I may have missed it but I thought I read that players had until the deadline “or later” to opt out. Did that change?

Just to finish this thought, I found what I was recalling.

https://www.nfl.com/news/list-of-nfl-players-to-opt-out-of-2020-season

Quote

If a player wished to opt out, he must have provided his club with written notification by August 6 at 4 p.m. ET.

A player can still opt out later if one of the following applies: if that player gets a new diagnosis that he has a high-risk condition; or if a player's family member dies, is hospitalized or otherwise moves to a medical facility because of COVID-19 or related condition.

To be designated a voluntary opt-out, a player must be under contract or subject to a tender. The player's contract will toll and all provisions of that contract for the tolled year will be applicable the following season; however, he will not receive an accrued season. The player will be eligible for a stipend of $150,000 to be treated as a salary advance against his tolled contract; an undrafted free agent, however, is not eligible for the stipend.

So I think my concerns with Cook are not entirely valid.  He can only opt-out if he or a family member gets ill and he doesn't have much financial incentive to do that because he'd be back in the exact same situation next year.

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10 hours ago, N4L said:

Also, while I have you here @The LBC, which runner do you prefer taking a late round flier on, Justin Jackson or Boston Scott? I will even add Kareem Hunt in there for a bonus round. curious to hear @Forges take on this as well. Thanks guys

As late round lottery tickets go, Boston Scott.  I think he's got value in PPR leagues as a match-up-dependent flex or a bye-week filler.  And I say this as someone who, as I've already made clear, is comfortable having Miles Sanders as his RB1 if it came down to it.  Hunt, barring a Chubb injury, I worry about the same thing I do with Jackson, when there's a clear plan (as there seemed to be to close the season for Cleveland last year) to define the timeshare, it's incredibly difficult to peg the week-to-week dependability.  You'll get some weeks where he pays off mightily against his ADP and a number of others where he nets you 2 points (outside of PPR formats, but adjust for what you'd likely have gotten in terms of points from receptions off others on your bench and it's basically the same setup) which isn't a goose-egg, but it's damn close.  Not having preseason to get some semblance of their usage is making things difficult.

That said, I also like Damian Harris and Chris Thompson (yes, old *** CT back with Jay Gruden and behind Fournette) as last-pick lottery tickets at RB, if you go in expecting to very likely not have them rostered after Week 3 or 4.  Thompson, when he was healthy (the guy was unfortunately like the Jordan Reed of RB's and rarely healthy), was nearly as productive in Jay Gruden's offense as James White has been in McDaniels'.  Am I expecting him to see more than 50% of snaps?  Likely not.  Is he someone who could put up enough (he posted 10+ points in 2 out of the first 3 weeks last season) early in the season that you can coax something-of-return out of the Fournette owner suddenly worried that he may need the handcuff or out of the guy who misjudged in the draft and didn't come away deep enough at the RB position and feels like he needs more depth?  I think so.

As far as guys who you'd probably keep rostered longer, and probably nets you a floor of 2-3 points a week in standard with the TD upside for boom weeks, consider Tony Pollard.  If the Boys get up by 14+ on teams (which their receiving corps gives them potential to do), i won't be surprised in the slightest if Pollard is the preferred late-game closer to preserve Zeke (it's something I've had to concern myself with as a Zeke owner).  He's also someone who, in the event of a Zeke injury, has Top 10 upside.

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4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

First off, if he misses the 1st 10 games, you really think Minnesota makes the playoffs?

2nd if he sits out all those games, I cant imagine he'll be 100% ready to go. He'll be starting off much slower. Can he afford 1-2 bad games because he's not up to game speed and then maybe a bad in the next 4 just because it happens?

I’m just saying, is he willing to risk injury on this contract knowing if he gets hurt he’s gonna have to play on prove-it deals?  We’ve seen it before with Bell and last year Gordon, granted it didn’t really work out for either guy.  

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1 hour ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I’m just saying, is he willing to risk injury on this contract knowing if he gets hurt he’s gonna have to play on prove-it deals?  We’ve seen it before with Bell and last year Gordon, granted it didn’t really work out for either guy.  

Yea history isnt on his side. I totally understand why he wants to do that bc his position is being lessened alot by teams strapped for cash

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1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Yea history isnt on his side. I totally understand why he wants to do that bc his position is being lessened alot by teams strapped for cash

Titan Rick in the other thread just said by all accounts Cook is going hard in practice.  That’s a good sign, I would assume if he planned on holding out and not risking injury, he wouldn’t be putting himself out there like that.  

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Just now, BoltsFan937 said:

Titan Rick in the other thread just said by all accounts Cook is going hard in practice.  That’s a good sign, I would assume if he planned on holding out and not risking injury, he wouldn’t be putting himself out there like that.  

If he was holding out he wouldn't be in practice at all right....so has this whole conversation been for nothing? lol

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