Who are “your guys” this year?

[SmittyBacall]

Simply put, who are your guys this year? They don’t necessarily have to be “sleepers”, per se. Just guys you are targeting heavily that you suspect will have a great year. 

Who are going to be the guys that emerge as dominant breakout players? Who are guys you’re targeting going much lower than their deserved ADP?

I’ll start:

1.) Courtland Sutton (Denver - WR): His current ADP (according to Yahoo) is 57.7 overall, or WR22, which is a round late IMO. He’s quietly dominated Broncos camp. I think he emerges as a legitimate top 10 receiver in 2020, he certainly has the talent to do so. He’s also no longer tied to the likes of Flacco or Allen, and should see improved QB play with Lock at the helm. He finished 2020 with 125 targets, 72 receptions, 1112 yards and 6 TDs. I envision all of these numbers increasing coming into his 3rd year as the lead dog in Denver. I think he produces similar to Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson 20 picks later.

2.) Kyler Murray (Arizona - QB): I see the possibility of the 2nd-year-QB-for-MVP trend continuing with Murray. I loved him coming out of Oklahoma and think he’s got a good shot to set the league on fire in his 2nd year in Kingbury’s offense. 

3.) Tyler Higbee (LA Rams - TE): He finished the 2019 season on fire, finishing with double-digit targets in the final four games before seasons end and producing at an elite level. 

4.) Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati - WR): A bit biased of a pick? Maybe. But a legitimate target at his current ADP (87.8) nonetheless. Boyd is a poor mans Cooper Kupp that can be had nearly 40 picks later. He’s a reliable volume hog who will rack up receptions and score at a decent rate. With Burrow now at the helm, I expect Boyd’s numbers to keep rising. Very underrated player, both in fantasy and on the football field. 

5.) Raheem Mostert (RB - San Francisco) After tearing up the end of 2019, including a record setting 4 TDs and 220+ rush yards in the NFC Championship, Mostert is flying under the radar in comparison to other RBs floating around his current ADP (53.4). Yes, he is tied to a committee with Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon, but I believe Mostert is the best of the bunch and has the surest path to significant carries. San Francisco has one of the league better rushing attacks, and even if he only sees 12-15 touches a week, he can still haul like an effective RB2 with some big upside. He is, however, limited as a receiver in comparison to McKinnon. 

Other notable “guys”: Devante Parker, Darren Waller, Desean Jackson, Matt Stafford, Matt Brieda, Joe Mixon, Marquise Brown, Will Fuller, Kenyan Drake.

Edited September 4, 2020 by SmittyBacall

[AFF]

1)Will Fuller

2)Stafford

3)Tyler Boyd 

4)Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf

5)Jonathan Taylor

[Forge]

1. Will Fuller...I've come all the way around on him. At first, I sided with Cooks (they were going next to one another) as the Injuries always scare me, but then I heard this nugget on a podcast about how his ADP this year is nearly identical to his ADP the previous 3 years or whatever, and this year he suddenly doesn't have Hopkins taking 10 targets. So I'm all in on him. Given his chemistry with Watson, he's poised to explode. He's going in the wr 30 group and has legit top 10 wr upside. 

2. Raheem Mostert - this is sort of a weird one because I'm not drafting him early, but I've basically harped on the fact that he's much better value than someone like Jonathan Taylor and you should skip the former and take Mostert a round or two later. 

3. Michael Gallup - He's going as wr 30+, meanwhile Cooper is going in the 30's overall. Now go back and look at each receiver in 2019 and tell me something isn't weird about that. 

4. Robert Woods - He's a very good WR2 with potential Wr1 upside if he has positive touchdown regression. He's going as WR20 and will outplay that ADP. 

5. James Connor - Another health player. When Connor plays, he's a top 10 RB. Last year, he was banged up and still finished top 20 in PPG, and if you account for games where he was active and played very little (13 and 9 snaps in two of his 10 games), his ppg was similar to Kamara's. That's not a joke. Remove the 5 points from those games, he's 17+ points per game. Keep those 5 points in there and he's sitting  between Barkley and Kamara. The year before, he was 6th in points, 7th in PPG. This is a top 10 running back when healthy and he's going as RB 19 barely in the top 50. 

 

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

3. Michael Gallup - He's going as wr 30+, meanwhile Cooper is going in the 30's overall. Now go back and look at each receiver in 2019 and tell me something isn't weird about that. 

I like Gallup a lot as a player, but not so much convinced as a fantasy asset. It just feels like there’s too many mouths to feed in Dallas. You think there’s enough to go around?

1 hour ago, Forge said:

4. Robert Woods - He's a very good WR2 with potential Wr1 upside if he has positive touchdown regression. He's going as WR20 and will outplay that ADP. 

Agreed.

1 hour ago, Forge said:

5. James Connor - Another health player. When Connor plays, he's a top 10 RB. Last year, he was banged up and still finished top 20 in PPG, and if you account for games where he was active and played very little (13 and 9 snaps in two of his 10 games), his ppg was similar to Kamara's. That's not a joke. Remove the 5 points from those games, he's 17+ points per game. Keep those 5 points in there and he's sitting  between Barkley and Kamara. The year before, he was 6th in points, 7th in PPG. This is a top 10 running back when healthy and he's going as RB 19 barely in the top 50. 

Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. waiting in the wings worries me a bit. But that offense should finish top 10 easily, if not higher. 

[AFF]

@SmittyBacall

Gallup was pretty much the same player as Cooper last year on a PPG basis...heck of a value given his ADP of roughly 4-5 rounds later than Cooper.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like Gallup a lot as a player, but not so much convinced as a fantasy asset. It just feels like there’s too many mouths to feed in Dallas. You think there’s enough to go around?

The volume thing isn't even a consideration. There's 166 targets to disperse between the losses of Witten and Cobb. 

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. waiting in the wings worries me a bit. But that offense should finish top 10 easily, if not higher

I'm not worried about mcfarland. I'm slightly worried about Snell, who has reportedly looked good. I'm banking on tomlin's history of using one running back. But we are largely talking fifth round or so. Risk is minimal

[Forge]

1 hour ago, AlanFanecaFan said:

@SmittyBacall

Gallup was pretty much the same player as Cooper last year on a PPG basis...heck of a value given his ADP of roughly 4-5 rounds later than Cooper.

Exactly

[AFF]

24 minutes ago, Forge said:

The volume thing isn't even a consideration. There's 166 targets to disperse between the losses of Witten and Cobb. 

I'm not worried about mcfarland. I'm slightly worried about Snell, who has reportedly looked good. I'm banking on tomlin's history of using one running back. But we are largely talking fifth round or so. Risk is minimal

Off hand both Gallup and Cooper were on pace for ~120~ targets last year...Cobb got 80 something...Witten I wanna say 90 something.

Its why I consider Jarwin a nice late TE target.

In terms of Snell, if/when Conner were to go down, it’ll be him....Snell looking at 15 carries/a few targets per game...Tomlin one of the few remaining “1 back” type of guys. McFarland might see handful of touches per game.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Based on ADP:

DJ Chark- LOVE him, we are terrible and his 1000-8 from last year is probably his floor

Raheem Mostert- although I'm aware there is risk

Tyler Higbee

Chris Carson-why isn't he rated higher?

Mark Ingram-I'm aware Dobbins is a threat but also L-Jax is going to be running alot less. I dont necessarily think Baltimore runs less

DK Metcalf

 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Chris Carson-why isn't he rated higher?

 

In standard, he's a steal. In PPR, he loses a decent amount of value in my opinion. 

[titanrick]

I've been grabbing Darrel Williams late in my drafts.  Reports are that he's had an outstanding camp, is running with the 1's and is only an injury, poorly-timed fumble or missed pass block by a rookie away from being the main back in the league's best offense.  He could be a league winner this year.  I love CEH but this insurance policy is dirt cheap and could pay off huge.

In PPR, I'm all over Chris Thompson.  With all the question marks in the backfield and the likelihood the Jags will be playing from behind often, I think he sees a ton of work this year.

If I don't end up with Kelce or Kittle, I've been taking Chris Herndon late.  So many glowing reports out of camp, a team that will be behind and forced to throw often and a young QB (younger than Burrow!) who may find it easier to dump it to a TE.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

In standard, he's a steal. In PPR, he loses a decent amount of value in my opinion. 

I play almost exclusively standard so thats why

[Scoundrel]

DJ Moore is my guy. Leads the league in receiving yards this year. Yep I said it. 

[N4L]

7 hours ago, Counselor said:

DJ Moore is my guy. Leads the league in receiving yards this year. Yep I said it. 

I came here to say this 

I also LOVE Zach moss this year. He is going to have a big role in that offense

[101Raider]

At RB I love Kareem Hunt. Browns are going to run, run and run some more, Chubb and Hunt are going to eat.  In a PPR, Hunt is startable as a low end rb2/flex and if Chubb goes down, LOOKOUT Hunt could be a top 3 RB.  Heard the other day on a Podcast that Hunt is the only player in the league that if the starter were to go out, he'd be considered a more valuable asset than the original player starter.  That's the kind of upside I want in my 3rd rostered rb.

At WR, I'm digging Chark, Fuller, Woods and Desean Jackson.  Chark is going to be fed the ball in Jacksonville with that poor defense. Fuller now absorbs a bunch of targets vacated from Hopkins (though injury is a huge consideration), Woods is perpetually undervalued and Desean Jackson is now the only viable wr (not including TEs) in Philly-that's a great person to have in the late rounds.

TE: I targeted Hurst in all my leagues.  Loosing out to Andrews is not an indictment against him in my opinion.  Hurst is more athletic and profiles purely as pass-catcher were as Andrews is the complete package making Hurst expendable.  It's clear that Atlanta values his skillset highly as they traded a 2nd round pick and let Hooper walk.  I'm anticipating that Hurst essentially vacuums up Hoopers vacated targets and outperforms his 9th/10th round draft status.

QB: I'm going deep here lol.  In a 2QB or large league, I like Bridgewater.  I think I got him as like the 26th or 27th QB drafted in my Superflex. That's crazy for a QB with the top pass catching RB, very good WRs and a TERRIBLE defense.  Not saying he's going to be a top 10 guy, but he'll greatly outplay his ADP.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by 101Raider