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Dolphins release Josh Rosen


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1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

I think the rumors of Rosen rubbing people the wrong way are more to blame for this than anything.

Since 1980, only one QB drafted in the top 10 didn't make it to his second year with the team that drafted him.  That player was suspended due to gambling, so technically he was still with the team.

Rosen wasn't even in the bottom half of performances for a rookie QB drafted in the top 10, either. 

Out of all 69 top 10 QBs selected since 1980, Rosen ranked:

32nd in touchdown passes.
22nd in interceptions.
28th in yards.
32nd in completion percentage.

He was also the 6th most sacked. 

There's something more to it than talent and potential. 

Little harsh, imho. He didn't make it to year 2 because the Cardinals were utter trash and Kliff wanted his toy QB. Had the Cardinals hired anyone else, I truly believe Rosen would still be in Arizona.

Instead, he got sent to an openly tanking Dolphins team. Fitzpatrick isn't total trash and I don't hold it against Rosen too much that he got beaten out by him. But with that tank job, it was practically 100% assured they were going QB in round 1. And if Tua is as good as advertised, I don't hold it against Rosen for being the odd man out. 

The kid wasn't put in a position to succeed in either of his stops. For a young QB, I can't imagine the mental beating that must be- your first team bails in favor of a totally different scheme after year 1 after giving you garbage to work with, and ships you off to another team you already know isn't going to invest in you. 

Rosen is going to be forced to shed a "bust" label over the next few years, when the label isn't exactly fairly warranted in the first place. If anything, the Cardinals and Dolphins holding onto him til the last minute has been a double dose of massive trolling. 

My guess is that he's relieved to be hitting free agency, where he may not have great leverage but can at least seek stability. I don't think he's all-world, but as far as being put into a box to fail, he's had it about as bad as Alex Smith did in SF prior to Harbaugh. 

If I'm him, SF, LAR, Indy, NE, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans are my first targets. 

SF only has Mullens and Beathard. Both are likely gone after the season, and if Shanahan can't redeem him, ouch. 

LAR could be interesting too. Goff probably doesn't have a ton of leash himself. Maybe McVay could sprinkle some magic on him and find a cheaper replacement if things start going belly up.

Indy has Rivers and Brissett. I can't see them giving Brissett the starting job back without serious competition in the future. Rivers seems like he'd be a great mentor. Reich has a way with QBs. 

New England only because of The Hoody. Let him and Stidham duke it out. I can't see New England tanking for a QB so he'd probably have a shot to prove his worth. 

Tampa would seem to be an odd pairing because of Arians' usual philosophy. I get that Tom Brady is other-worldly, but clearly the offense is getting tailored to his current skillset- a dink and dunk, Brady friendly one where arm strength isn't everything. Arians also hhas a good track record with QBs. If the offense gells under Brady, Rosen could prove himself a similar skillset successor down the line.

New Orleans and Sean Payton can rehab QBs and can highlight abilities like crazy. The caveat here being that Jameis Winston would be the stiffest obstacle to a QB2 spot of the options listed, and with Hill, a QB3 is redundant.

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17 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Little harsh, imho. He didn't make it to year 2 because the Cardinals were utter trash and Kliff wanted his toy QB. Had the Cardinals hired anyone else, I truly believe Rosen would still be in Arizona.

Instead, he got sent to an openly tanking Dolphins team. Fitzpatrick isn't total trash and I don't hold it against Rosen too much that he got beaten out by him. But with that tank job, it was practically 100% assured they were going QB in round 1. And if Tua is as good as advertised, I don't hold it against Rosen for being the odd man out. 

The kid wasn't put in a position to succeed in either of his stops. For a young QB, I can't imagine the mental beating that must be- your first team bails in favor of a totally different scheme after year 1 after giving you garbage to work with, and ships you off to another team you already know isn't going to invest in you. 

Rosen is going to be forced to shed a "bust" label over the next few years, when the label isn't exactly fairly warranted in the first place. If anything, the Cardinals and Dolphins holding onto him til the last minute has been a double dose of massive trolling. 

My guess is that he's relieved to be hitting free agency, where he may not have great leverage but can at least seek stability. I don't think he's all-world, but as far as being put into a box to fail, he's had it about as bad as Alex Smith did in SF prior to Harbaugh. 

If I'm him, SF, LAR, Indy, NE, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans are my first targets. 

SF only has Mullens and Beathard. Both are likely gone after the season, and if Shanahan can't redeem him, ouch. 

LAR could be interesting too. Goff probably doesn't have a ton of leash himself. Maybe McVay could sprinkle some magic on him and find a cheaper replacement if things start going belly up.

Indy has Rivers and Brissett. I can't see them giving Brissett the starting job back without serious competition in the future. Rivers seems like he'd be a great mentor. Reich has a way with QBs. 

New England only because of The Hoody. Let him and Stidham duke it out. I can't see New England tanking for a QB so he'd probably have a shot to prove his worth. 

Tampa would seem to be an odd pairing because of Arians' usual philosophy. I get that Tom Brady is other-worldly, but clearly the offense is getting tailored to his current skillset- a dink and dunk, Brady friendly one where arm strength isn't everything. Arians also hhas a good track record with QBs. If the offense gells under Brady, Rosen could prove himself a similar skillset successor down the line.

New Orleans and Sean Payton can rehab QBs and can highlight abilities like crazy. The caveat here being that Jameis Winston would be the stiffest obstacle to a QB2 spot of the options listed, and with Hill, a QB3 is redundant.

Great post here.  Nothing much to add here.  There are so many options for Rosen to be in a good situation, and I agree that this isn't much of his fault either.  Both situations were pretty tough to be put in. 

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2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I think the rumors of Rosen rubbing people the wrong way are more to blame for this than anything.

Since 1980, only one QB drafted in the top 10 didn't make it to his second year with the team that drafted him.  That player was suspended due to gambling, so technically he was still with the team.

Rosen wasn't even in the bottom half of performances for a rookie QB drafted in the top 10, either. 

Out of all 69 top 10 QBs selected since 1980, Rosen ranked:

32nd in touchdown passes.
22nd in interceptions.
28th in yards.
32nd in completion percentage.

He was also the 6th most sacked. 

There's something more to it than talent and potential. 

Agreed.

He has the talent to be a solid QB if put in the right system and with talent around him.  Something else must be going on for him to just get released like this. 

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54 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

He was extremely overhyped 

If you thought he was a generational QB then yes.  However, I think he has more talent than the likes of Mitch Trubisky and Baker Mayfield.  He just hasn't been as fortunate as them when it comes to being surrounded by talent and being given a chance to develop.

Josh Rosen is not good enough to overcome bad talent and coaching.  However, if you surround him with good talent and a great offensive mind I think he can be a solid starting QB in the mold of a Matt Ryan or Eli Manning. 

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Wait and see who needs a QB. No rush and don't sign long term/no tag clause. Find the right coach next year. Would have liked him as a back up on the Raiders but Marcus is taking up that cap space this year. 

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4 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I think the rumors of Rosen rubbing people the wrong way are more to blame for this than anything.

Since 1980, only one QB drafted in the top 10 didn't make it to his second year with the team that drafted him.  That player was suspended due to gambling, so technically he was still with the team.

Rosen wasn't even in the bottom half of performances for a rookie QB drafted in the top 10, either. 

Out of all 69 top 10 QBs selected since 1980, Rosen ranked:

32nd in touchdown passes.
22nd in interceptions.
28th in yards.
32nd in completion percentage.

He was also the 6th most sacked. 

There's something more to it than talent and potential. 

While I agree with the conclusion about their being something more than just talent and potential. I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that you can’t use bulk stats to compare rookie QBs, especially considering opportunity and sample sizes can be vastly different. Patrick Mahomes was drafted top 10, but he’s going to rate lower than Trubisky and Rosen simply because he had such a small sample size with little opportunity.

When accounting for such top 10 QBs since 1980 that started in at least half their games and then looking at the efficiency stats (as the difference between 8 games and 16 games is still pronounced), Rosen comes in at:

Passing yards/game = 29/36
ANY/A = 32/36
Int% = 20/36
TD% = 27/36

So really outside of Int% he’s a bottom 10 QB in most of the categories, bottom 5 in probably the most important stat above.

Furthermore when accounting for Adjusted QB Passer Rating, there were 1604 qualifying QB performances since 1967 and of the list of performances, Josh Rosen scored as the 22nd worst QB performance since 1967

Recent QB performances of similar note to Josh Rosen (25.47 score, 2018) were JaMarcus Russell (20.14 score, 2009), Jared Goff (20.32 score, 2016), Ryan Leaf (21.06 score, 1998), and Jimmy Clausen (26.30 score, 2010). Rosen had the 5th worst QB performance of the last 20 years.

So while there was certainly more than just talent that impacted his ability to not make it to his second season with the Cardinals, I do think it’s fair to say that talent was just as big a part of the equation as other factors. 

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I'm not as down about the Jordan Love pick as some others are as a GB fan and Rosen has looked pretty unconvincing when he has seen the field, but if we had not gone QB in the first this year he would have been worth really looking at given the Rodgers comparisons when Rosen came out. 

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Id like to see him in KC; New Orleans, Tampa, Philly, or LAR where he can just take a Rodgers and learn for a year under smart people:.

I think Indy would make sense too.

Even those teams that already have 3 QBs can protect him on the practice squad with COVID rules.

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