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Rack's 2021 Mock Draft - 4th Edition up now (Feb 26) - 3 Rounds w/ Full Writeups


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On 11/21/2020 at 5:45 AM, Danish49ers said:

Nice pick for 49ers in round 1 - find it hard to see them pass on Mac Jones in round 2.

On 11/21/2020 at 11:43 AM, Forge said:

Agree with this. If the draft falls like this, I'd be very surprised if they didn't take Mac (or Trask) in round 2 

Fair enough. I had heard about Shanahan basically saying Jimmy G is his guy. I also saw a stat about how good the 49ers record is when Garoppolo is in versus when he's not. But I suppose that's the issue is that he can't stay healthy. I'll remember that for the next mock. If one of the top 4 is there in the first do you think they take a QB?

On 11/21/2020 at 4:49 PM, Jason_Bengal_Fl said:

Has Leatherwood really fallen that far?

9 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

Mostly due to being projected a guard

I'm lower on him than most probably but yes I think he's a guard at the next level for sure but I don't even think he's going to be very good at that either honestly. I'm very interested for when we get to draft season and we start getting reports on how teams actually view him both position and talent wise.

1 hour ago, ny92mike said:

I loved the Bradberry pick up and after being burnt in the draft by several cornerback pickups.  Wouldn't be surprised if they don't continue to fill via the free agency.  

I'd really like to see the Giants pick up a top edge player, but the line seems to be playing tough football on defense, so I'm leaning wide out if it doesn't require reaching.  Golden Tate is likely gone after this year and while I like the other receivers none of them at least this point in their careers would be considered an elite receiver.

Anyway that's my 2 cents and as always appreciate you taking the time to do these.

Definitely things will change a lot once we get to FAs and teams fill some holes that way. I've been hearing from Giants fans that CB2 and EDGE might be their two biggest needs so I definitely tried to address those in the first two rounds.

12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

When the Lions pick in the top 10 (not even a question of it) they're going to be picking a new franchise QB thanks to a regime change. 

We'll see. Stafford has survived many regime changes already and he's far from the problem. I still think he's a QB you can win a championship with if you can actually put a good team around him. I certainly wouldn't be surprised but I wouldn't bet on it either.

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1 minute ago, rackcs said:

We'll see. Stafford has survived many regime changes already and he's far from the problem. I still think he's a QB you can win a championship with if you can actually put a good team around him. I certainly wouldn't be surprised but I wouldn't bet on it either.

He's 32. He has 5-6 really good years of football left in him. This Lions team is going to need yet another rebuild which is a 2-3 year process. At the end of that 3 year process, Stafford is going to be 35 years old going on 36. He costs a lot of money which makes it difficult (but far from impossible) to build a team around. He seems to be more of a guy that can join a team that has all of the pieces and just needs decent QB play to get them over the hump (ex. Rivers and Indy is a good, recent example) as opposed to being a guy you spend the next 3 years rebuilding around. By the time you have the team around him he'll be starting on his decline with a short window. 

 

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36 minutes ago, rackcs said:

Fair enough. I had heard about Shanahan basically saying Jimmy G is his guy. I also saw a stat about how good the 49ers record is when Garoppolo is in versus when he's not. But I suppose that's the issue is that he can't stay healthy. I'll remember that for the next mock. If one of the top 4 is there in the first do you think they take a QB? 

On 11/21/2020 at 1:49 PM, Jason_Bengal_Fl said:

 

Depends..Shanny is somewhat prickly over his Qbs...I doubt that he would like all of them and that's the tricky part. I think he'll love Wilson. I don't know that he'd love Lance, for example. And that's just my own opinion. 

Ultimately, we could acquire a QB in another manner (another vet), but I think there is a big desire to get another QB in the building. Even if Jimmy is back, I think most acknowledge the writing is on the wall that he's not the long term guy. It's also problematic that we have limited cap space and a lot of free agents, which makes finding a cheaper, similarly productive QB of paramount importance. He has no guaranteed money left on his deal, and we have absolutely refused to restructure his deal, instead restructuring guys with likely no long term future with the team. Over the last year, we have restructured Kwon (already traded), Weston Richburg (oft injured, aging center who may never play again at this point?), Dee Ford (29 years old, often injured who's played in 12 out of a possible 26 games and even with the restructure may not be on the team next year) and a very small restructure of Laken Tomlinson. I mean, that speaks voluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuumes about their feelings on Jimmy imo. So if it's Jimmy, no doubt that there is a guy drafted in the first couple of rounds to replace him. If we dump Jimmy for a vet, the draft could vary depending on who we acquire (You may not draft a guy if you trade for Stafford, for example, who is 32 years old and could probably pay another 5 years, but may draft a guy if you traded for Matt Ryan) 

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2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

He's 32. He has 5-6 really good years of football left in him. This Lions team is going to need yet another rebuild which is a 2-3 year process. At the end of that 3 year process, Stafford is going to be 35 years old going on 36. He costs a lot of money which makes it difficult (but far from impossible) to build a team around. He seems to be more of a guy that can join a team that has all of the pieces and just needs decent QB play to get them over the hump (ex. Rivers and Indy is a good, recent example) as opposed to being a guy you spend the next 3 years rebuilding around. By the time you have the team around him he'll be starting on his decline with a short window. 

 

2 hours ago, Forge said:
 

Depends..Shanny is somewhat prickly over his Qbs...I doubt that he would like all of them and that's the tricky part. I think he'll love Wilson. I don't know that he'd love Lance, for example. And that's just my own opinion. 

Ultimately, we could acquire a QB in another manner (another vet), but I think there is a big desire to get another QB in the building. Even if Jimmy is back, I think most acknowledge the writing is on the wall that he's not the long term guy. It's also problematic that we have limited cap space and a lot of free agents, which makes finding a cheaper, similarly productive QB of paramount importance. He has no guaranteed money left on his deal, and we have absolutely refused to restructure his deal, instead restructuring guys with likely no long term future with the team. Over the last year, we have restructured Kwon (already traded), Weston Richburg (oft injured, aging center who may never play again at this point?), Dee Ford (29 years old, often injured who's played in 12 out of a possible 26 games and even with the restructure may not be on the team next year) and a very small restructure of Laken Tomlinson. I mean, that speaks voluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuumes about their feelings on Jimmy imo. So if it's Jimmy, no doubt that there is a guy drafted in the first couple of rounds to replace him. If we dump Jimmy for a vet, the draft could vary depending on who we acquire (You may not draft a guy if you trade for Stafford, for example, who is 32 years old and could probably pay another 5 years, but may draft a guy if you traded for Matt Ryan) 

I appreciate the in depth responses. One of my favorite things about making these mocks is hearing about the state of teams from various fans. I obviously can't be an expert on every team so it's good getting insight from those who know what's really going on.

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1 hour ago, rackcs said:

I appreciate the in depth responses. One of my favorite things about making these mocks is hearing about the state of teams from various fans. I obviously can't be an expert on every team so it's good getting insight from those who know what's really going on.

Well let's see how much better you do in version 4

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1 hour ago, rackcs said:

I appreciate the in depth responses. One of my favorite things about making these mocks is hearing about the state of teams from various fans. I obviously can't be an expert on every team so it's good getting insight from those who know what's really going on.

Absolutely agree. It's a nice exercise to figure out different perspectives on players, teams, team needs, etc. 

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On 11/19/2020 at 3:51 PM, rackcs said:

15. New England Patriots: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - DeVonta Smith is extremely good and I think could also go higher than his draft slot here. He does so many things so well and I think that's what Belichick will love about him. Their WR group right now is abysmal and needs an infusion of actual talent.

Nice. We really struggle drafting WRs but with the pick we're expected to have this year you'd think one of Waddle/Smith might still be there and it's as close to a sure thing as we'll get. The only reason I wouldn't go WR in the first is if Zach Wilson is somehow available. If he's still there or there's a team (Bengals?) listening to offers, we absolutely have to try.

On 11/20/2020 at 2:56 AM, rackcs said:

We'll see about Baker. Iirc, he wasn't exactly a difference maker even before all of that stuff went down. And interesting thought about doubling down on OG. C is a need for you guys as well correct?

Idk I just don't think Belichick is going to want to go full rebuild around some 2nd round QBs. He's nearing the end of his coaching career most likely and I don't think he's going to want to wait for those guys to fully develop to be competitive. And as for the Pitts vs Smith thing, I've heard many Pats fans say they prefer a WR to a TE. And also I think you've got more interesting young talent at TE than at WR.

I'll keep that in mind.

I see where you're coming from, the only thing i'll say is that Bill hates paying players and got lucky with Brady taking team friendly deals. He's also flirted with Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert if you believe the reports and drafted Jimmy/Stidham in recent years so there's the cost to consider of keeping Newton/signing another vet vs. taking a player in the draft.

I like Mac Jones, hate Kyle Trask. I'd be stunned if BB went WR, QB in the first two rounds though, he'll likely go defensive players with both or trade back but we can dream.

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2 hours ago, ToonPatriot said:

Nice. We really struggle drafting WRs but with the pick we're expected to have this year you'd think one of Waddle/Smith might still be there and it's as close to a sure thing as we'll get. The only reason I wouldn't go WR in the first is if Zach Wilson is somehow available. If he's still there or there's a team (Bengals?) listening to offers, we absolutely have to try.

 

With the Burrow injury and Finley starting, I don't think we win another game, and we are already in the #3 spot.  So unless something drastic happens ( a team trading over us, or Finley actually winning games) I think it's safe to assume we grab Sewell.  Now, if he isn't there (I could see Jax trading to fourth with a team wanting penei knowing that team and us won't be looking QB), then I think we are open for business trading back.  

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On 11/26/2020 at 2:21 PM, SteelKing728 said:

Minnesota really should trade up to get a DT. I'm a Pitt fan so I'd be ecstatic for Twyman.

Problem is a lot of INT guys have kinda fallen off so as of right now I don't know if there's really any INT guys who belong in the top half of the first near you. So with me not doing trades in my mock, you pretty much need to wait for the second. Luckily I think there are some talented guys in that round for you.

14 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Can you be our GM?

Always good to hear, thanks!

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On 9/5/2020 at 9:27 PM, rackcs said:

Lance and Fields are the same size, according to their team websites Lance has 1 inch on Fields which is nothing. And scouting helmits is absolutely the wackest ****. It's lazy and means absolutely nothing.

I personally rate Smith higher than those other two, he's much more proven than both with I think equal or at least very slightly less playmaking ability. I think he's gonna ball out this year as the number 1 option. I certainly understand that that's not the consensus right now so I get why you'd prefer the other two. Humphrey was as much a value pick there as it was a fit thing but definitely if Karras plays well and they resign him they'd look elsewhere. It sounds like their 2020 OL draft picks have all looked good so far.

On 9/5/2020 at 9:58 PM, Tetsujin said:

In my opinion, Waddle and Moore are on a different level as playmakers than Smith. Waddle, especially, the sky's the limit.

On 9/5/2020 at 10:05 PM, rackcs said:

To me, Smith has the same playmaking ability as those Waddle, slightly less than Moore but has shown to be able to do it consistently with high usage. Waddle was the 4th option behind Smith and Moore hasn't been able to stay healthy. This is me calling my shot here that he's going to absolutely feast this season as the number 1 guy in that Alabama offense. He's got plenty of speed, plays big, is great at adjusting to get to the ball. I like him a lot.

Edit for hot take: The gap between Smith and Chase is smaller than the gap between Smith and Waddle/Moore.

2nd edit for selective stats that help my argument: Derek Stingley gave up only 624 yards last year and 211 of those were from DeVonta Smith.

Working on my next mock and wanted to go back and look at feedback from previous ones and saw this. I'll pat myself on the back for this take, although even I didn't think Smith would be as good as he was.

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