Predict Brady’s 2020 stats

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

So, included in your praise of their corp, was Gronk, who hasn't played in over a year, and arguably hasn't been an elite TE in over two, Justin Watson, who has 16 career catches to his name, and O.J. Howard, who isn't much more than a middling TE. If Howard is a top 10 TE, that says more about how quickly the talent level at TE falls off, than about his quality of play.. There are a lot of things that need to go the ideal way for that crew to enter that conversation. You need Gronk to go back to 2017 quality, you need someone to step up as a third receiver, you may need more out of Howard, especially if you don't get old Gronk. There's just a lot of projection to call them anything all-time level. As is, the only thing you know for sure, is you have a great WR duo, and a solid TE. That's all that's really set in stone, and plenty of teams in recent history can top that.

I'd definitely take the GSOT. Sure, the TEs are barely worth mentioning, but Faulk, Proehl, and Hakim are all huge wins at their spots. The recent Chiefs are worse at #2 WR and #2 TE, but they win so heavily at #1 TE, #3 WR, #4 WR, and, if we go with the 2018 crew, RB. I would take peak Broncos over the Bucs. Again, the difference between Wes Welker at #3 WR is far bigger than the gap between the second TEs. I would rather have 2013 DT, Decker, Welker, and Julius Thomas on the field than current Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Howard. Even a team like the 2012 Falcons, with Jones, White, Gonzalez, Douglas, Turner, and Rodgers. Couple of the recent Steelers iterations. Either Brown/Juju/James/McDonald/Conner, or going back a bit further to Brown/Sanders/Cotchery/Miller/Bell, or even further to Wallace/Ward/Sanders/Miller/Mendenhall. I feel like I could pick almost any year of Steelers history under Ben, and they'd have at least 3 good WRs, at least 1 solid TE, and a solid receiving back. The recent Rams don't have quite the top talent, but you have to go so far down the depth chart to hit someone who isn't quite good, with Cooks/Kupp/Woods/Higbee/Everett/Gurley. I might even consider something like the 08 Cardinals, who again have nothing at TE but that top 3 at WR was sooooooooo good that year. Or even some of the peak Moss Vikings. When you had Moss as the star, Burleson and Robinson as productive depth, and Wiggins being incredibly productive at TE. This is getting closer to a stretch, but I think that top four still has an argument against the Bucs top 4.

To me, just the lack of a third WR with any experience whatsoever, and the question mark that is Gronk, keeps them from being at that level. IF a receiver behind Evans/Godwin steps up, and IF either Gronk is old Gronk or Howard steps up his production, they could be there. But it's not that yet. Give me any of the receiving corps in recent history with a great third WR over this crew having a better second TE. I'd just rather have to cover O.J. Howard than Mecole Hardman or Wes Welker or Emmanuel Sanders or Cooper Kupp. It would be different if it was like Kittle and Kelce at TE, or something ridiculous like that. But it's really just a solid TE and a hopefully still good one.

I’d easily take 2019 Bucs over those Broncos 2013 squad. Thomas never went on to have success outside of Manning, he was clearly a Manning effect recipient. Decker prior to Manning was above average and after Manning was above average. Welker was on the decline and was above average to good. DT was the only guy that I would say was truly “that dude”. Even then his stats sharply declined without Manning. I’d put DT in the same tier as Evans/Godwin, better player but on that tier... only he benefited from the Manning effect.

Beyond that, you’re arguing RBs. There’s a reason I was careful not to say greatest skill position of all time. I specifically kept it to just WR/TE. So when you started bringing up RBs, I honestly stopped reading as it wasn’t relevant to what I suggested. But even then Jones, Fournette, and McCoy isn’t a scrub core.

In terms of “long way before saying they’re on that level”... that’s why I said “on paper”. Miss me with the “they need to prove themselves” line, all great lineups must prove themselves. This topic wouldn’t exist if we were only talking about proven, because that’s something only known AFTER it happens. This is a prediction thread. So based off the information at hand, this group of receivers is up there. I never claimed they were completely proven. I stated assembled talent. I’m not going to be dragged into arguing claims I never presented.

All I know is that if you give peak Brady, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees these weapons they’re putting up an all time great season. Current Brady? He’s in his 40s so I don’t anticipate that happening, but even in his 40s these are the kind of weapons you don’t fail with unless you’re a trash QB, like JaMarcus or Boller. If Brady performs poorly Father Time hit hard. But like I said from the jump, I’m more interested in if the team can be a winner... that’s the real standard I’ll measure him on.

[diamondbull424]

31 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

No it couldn't,  not even in the slightest.

It could. Without Gronk, those WRs and TEs put up crazy production with a mediocre QB. Add in Gronk to the equation and that’s next level destructive.

[Hunter2_1]

I'm torn.

 

On the one hand, it is a great and unfair receiving unit, with a super-computer of a QB - it SHOULD go completely off

On the other hand, there surely has to be growing pains? We don't know chemistry, Gronk may be a shell of his former self with live bullets, we don't know if TB has declined even more if he gets the playbook.

 

With that said, we know TB is smart, we know the WRs are awesome, we know Arians is a good coach

 

4850 yards at 63%

35 TDs

7 Int

 

Most like his 2012 season (poorer talent, but in prime TB)

[lancerman]

3 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I’d easily take 2019 Bucs over those Broncos 2013 squad. Thomas never went on to have success outside of Manning, he was clearly a Manning effect recipient. Decker prior to Manning was above average and after Manning was above average. Welker was on the decline and was above average to good. DT was the only guy that I would say was truly “that dude”. Even then his stats sharply declined without Manning. I’d put DT in the same tier as Evans/Godwin, better player but on that tier... only he benefited from the Manning effect.

Beyond that, you’re arguing RBs. There’s a reason I was careful not to say greatest skill position of all time. I specifically kept it to just WR/TE. So when you started bringing up RBs, I honestly stopped reading as it wasn’t relevant to what I suggested. But even then Jones, Fournette, and McCoy isn’t a scrub core.

In terms of “long way before saying they’re on that level”... that’s why I said “on paper”. Miss me with the “they need to prove themselves” line, all great lineups must prove themselves. This topic wouldn’t exist if we were only talking about proven, because that’s something only known AFTER it happens. This is a prediction thread. So based off the information at hand, this group of receivers is up there. I never claimed they were completely proven. I stated assembled talent. I’m not going to be dragged into arguing claims I never presented.

All I know is that if you give peak Brady, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees these weapons they’re putting up an all time great season. Current Brady? He’s in his 40s so I don’t anticipate that happening, but even in his 40s these are the kind of weapons you don’t fail with unless you’re a trash QB, like JaMarcus or Boller. If Brady performs poorly Father Time hit hard. But like I said from the jump, I’m more interested in if the team can be a winner... that’s the real standard I’ll measure him on.

Eric Decker’s 2015 with the Gets was just as good as anything he did with Manning. He got injured the next year and then retired the following season. DT was 1000 yard receiver in 2015 when Manning was shot and Brock played a good chunk of the season and was again in 2016 with Simian who was garbage and was close the next year with more issues at QB between a Lynch and Brock crapping the bed. He really declined in the last two years. And the difference with Welker in 2013 was he hasn’t declined yet (that was the next year) and he was a number 3 receiver at best. While with Brady, outside 2007 when Moss was tearing it up, Welker was generally considered the go to guy who got the offense running and in Denver he was just a nice luxury in the slot. 
 

Those weren’t Manning products. Decker and Thomas played well after him (unless you want hold Tebow against them in their first two seasons) and Welker made his name before coming there. 
 

Julius Thomas was the main guy who clearly was a Peyton product. And even then I would argue between the 3 receivers and Moreno having a career year it made 2013 an outlier for him that he never replicated because nobody could afford to worry about him. 
 

Evans and Godwin are the only non definitively great guys they have. Howard and Jones could take the next step. McCoy, Gronk and Fournette could live up to former glory. But really Gronk was a shell of himself the last time he played and missed a year which is typically a recipe for just getting too far behind, McCoy clearly declined, Howard is not some stud TE and he’s a guy they are hoping can put the pieces together, Fournette is really a volume back more than anything else and doubt they are going heavy run.

So really to me it comes down to Brady 

[sammymvpknight]

43 years old? I'm going to predict he falls off a cliff this season. He has already been better longer than anyone else in NFL history.

[PatriotsWin!]

9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I think it’s certainly in the argument. I can only recall a few in recent memory and none of them have the overall cache of this unit. I’ve seen better WRs and better TE cores. But someone will have to school me with a solid 5 better receiving cores overall that would remove this one from that conversation.

Howard when healthy is absolutely a TE in the top 10 IMO. The only problem with him has been his durability. Outside of that his YPT numbers and his production totals over the last three seasons certainly puts him on such a level. While other TEs may prove to be more healthy, there aren’t 10 TEs in the league I would deem as more talented than a healthy OJ Howard.

Also I didn’t remove any credit from Brady as this season has not happened. I said him putting up good passing numbers isn’t something unexpected with those weapons. I’d put it above the 07 and 11 Patriots cores. I’d put it above the 98 Vikings, 00 Rams, 06 Colts, 13 Broncos. At least on paper. Even if Brady isn’t as young as those squads, he’s still a good QB. Health as for all older QBs is the true impediment, but until Brady shows he no longer has durability, then I’m not going to assume he doesn’t.

The only QBs I think that could sink such weapons would be the likes of JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, Nathan Peterman, etc.

I got the impression you were saying unless Brady put up all time great numbers like 2013 Manning given the talent around him that it would somehow say something (negative) about Brady ... the only thing it would say is that Brady is 43 years old. Looked like you were preemptively trying to diminish a good season by Brady  if he doesn't put up those kind of numbers. And if be did put up great numbers, then chaulk that up to him having "all time great" talent around him. Not fair to have those standards for any QB... nevermind mind a 43 year old.

[August4th]

4,300

30 TD 12 int

I think this will be his last good season

[LieutenantGains]

4800

41 TD

9 INT

[FinSting]

Monster year, I'd expect. It's been a looooong time since Brady had receiver talent like this to work with. 

[SkippyX]

Just another perspective with PFF (I know, huge grain of salt)

Top season ranking between 2017-2019

• Gronk - 90.1 in 2017
• Evans - 85.7 in 2019
• Godwin - 90.7 in 2019
• Howard - 88.9 in 2019

These guys are ages 31, 27, 24, and 26.

Gronk was still good in 2018, he was just not a dominant pass catcher in a limited offense.

• He's had a full year off to rest up and get over lingering injuries. He can also medicate as he wants now with the rule changes.

You are free to bet against the best QB in NFL history, the best TE in NFL history, and 3 other very good weapons.

 

Its true that Brady is 43 but you can also make an winning argument that Brady after age 35 has had a HoF career even if you ignore the 35 and younger days.

• From age 39 on he has averaged 276 yards and 1.9 TDs a game.
  • That's with a mediocre WR core and Gronk missing about half of those 60 regular season games.
  • That's an average of 4400 and 31 over 16 before you put him in a pass-happy stretch-the -field offense with the best weapons in the league.

 

[diamondbull424]

7 hours ago, lancerman said:

McCoy, Gronk and Fournette could live up to former glory.

Fournette just put up nearly 1700 YFS last season. I’m confused as to what “former glory” he’s supposed to be reaching towards. He’s a head case but he’s still got talent.

Gronk is the same age as Travis Kelce and had a year off to recover, coaches say he looks like 2017 Gronk. Why would I question the validity of that statement? So excuse me if I believe he’ll still be THAT dude at TE upon returning, a top 5 TE in the league at least on that Mark Andrews, Ertz, Waller level of threat.

McCoy I don’t expect to be at his former glory. He’s an old RB, but I expect that he can provide some quality carries when needed as a quality 3rd RB in the rotation.

7 hours ago, lancerman said:

Julius Thomas was the main guy who clearly was a Peyton product.

Which I claimed him to be a Manning product. Switch out Julius Thomas for Justin Watson and great QBs make guys like that look better than they are regularly.

7 hours ago, lancerman said:

Eric Decker’s 2015 with the Gets was just as good as anything he did with Manning.

Just as good as nearly 1300 receiving yards and 11 scores with 1.5 less YPT? Point is he was an above average WR that was boosted. Are you taking Decker over Evans or Godwin? He was on a level or two below those guys, on that Marvin Jones Jr level of WR talent, quality receiver, but not someone special.

7 hours ago, lancerman said:

DT was 1000 yard receiver in 2015 when Manning was shot and Brock played a good chunk of the season and was again in 2016 with Simian who was garbage and was close the next year with more issues at QB between a Lynch and Brock crapping the bed. He really declined in the last two years.

I said DT was THAT dude. So him putting up numbers without Manning are to be expected. But even then he wasn’t putting up arguably All Pro type numbers like in 12-14. In 2015 when Manning fell off a cliff and Osweiler was the guy, DT’s YPT numbers fell sharply and his AV dropped from 16 down to 9. His AV stayed roughly on that same level before he too fell off. He was a PB level WR made to look like an AP level talent with a healthy Manning. So even though he was a beast, he too was a Manning product.

Welker was also a beast. But he was beginning to decline. His quickness was starting to go and made it more and more difficult for him to separate as easily, leading to more and more contested catch scenarios. He was still a good receiver though. He was not a product, I agree. But that’s not a claim I made. Simply that he was beginning to decline.

I would definitely take:
Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Howard, Brate, Watson
Over
DT, Decker, Welker, Thomas, Tamme, Caldwell

And the latter led to an All Time great season. So like I said give any prime GOAT QB these weapons and they’d lead to all time numbers. So giving a past his prime version these weapons and I’m still expecting them to produce just not be elevated.

[diamondbull424]

5 hours ago, PatriotsWin! said:

I got the impression you were saying unless Brady put up all time great numbers like 2013 Manning given the talent around him that it would somehow say something (negative) about Brady ... the only thing it would say is that Brady is 43 years old. Looked like you were preemptively trying to diminish a good season by Brady  if he doesn't put up those kind of numbers. And if be did put up great numbers, then chaulk that up to him having "all time great" talent around him. Not fair to have those standards for any QB... nevermind mind a 43 year old.

You got that impression, sure. I simply am not going to act like these weapons shouldn’t produce a good season for a QB, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. In terms of assembled talent, it’s IMO, the best in the league. I’d have Evans/Godwin both on the same level as Hill and I’m confident that Gronk will be on a similar level as Kelce, if not just one notch below. Add in the other two TEs with Howard/Brate, which was probably a top 10 TE duo prior to Gronk... and you’ve got an abundance. Better than the Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs, and Cowboys. It’s better than any of the recent Steelers units with the addition of Gronk, similar without.

So I said I won’t be expecting anything less than a very good statistical season with these weapons. It doesn’t matter who the QB was, if Lamar had these weapons... I would be expecting him to absolutely dominate. He may not be the best throwing outside the numbers, but just with that TE core alone I would expect him to do damage as it’s essentially what we had last season in 2019. Add in those receivers? Lamar better have an All Time type season, maybe 4000 yds passing with 1000 yds rushing.

Now Brady is older and not in his prime, so I’m not expecting all time great numbers so that’s what it would take to truly impress me. If he does that then I would certainly be impressed. But if he has a terrible season, with these weapons, it would tell me he’s likely done (unless of course he got injured or something that might otherwise provide context to the seasonal performance).

I think you (and others) are just triggered because it’s Brady. I don’t expect Brees not to get his either. He’s over 40 as well and while his receiving core isn’t quite as good as the Bucs, it’s still good enough that he should put up a very good season. If he has an All Time great season that would be incredibly impressive.

Edited September 8, 2020 by diamondbull424

[offbyone]

It might not be the best receiving corp, but it is pretty darn good and it might be the best tom brady has ever had.  I think he will start hot as he is prepared.  The more interesting question for me is whether he will carry his play through the season.

I think we will see 4000 yards.

Edited September 9, 2020 by offbyone

[Hunter2_1]

Just a quick note - although no one has mentioned it here yet, but I've seen it on other threads;

Brady's arm did NOT decline much, if at all. The arm is not an issue and it wasn't an issue last season. I've got video proof of lazer-ropes to the sideline, up the seam, a missile off one foot etc last season. Decision making was, at times, whack - probably frustrated with lack of separation. He actually had one of his better deep passing seasons stat-wise. The arm strength argument is a lazy one. If he's declined, it's other factors.

 

Still, I think it will be middle of the pack for a Brady season (which is still very good).

 

[Deadpulse]

Brady last year was:

60.8% 4057 yards 24 TDs 8 INTs