Things to Watch 2020: Offense

[G08]

3 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

You're really going to let 1 quarter against the Lions change your opinion of the offense? Like, do you think they are a non-garbage offense now? Let's see them score 27+ a few more times this year before we insinuate that they're even average

Hi.

We won the game.

Smile

[beardown3231]

5 minutes ago, G08 said:

Hi.

We won the game.

Smile

Of course I'm happy. They're just going to play a better team next week, so they'll need a better effort from the offense and defense. I'm already past this game. I'm thrilled, but today's effort from all phases won't work vs GB, MIN, etc over the next few months

I moved on per your request, so why don't you? I gave a take on Ifedi.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, Sugashane said:

This is why him drafting so few OTs is an issue to me. They need time develop and trying to draft that stud RT means you're going against your own odds. 

 

Get OTs, develop them, and scatter OTs all along the OL is my belief. You can put athletic guys that do well in space anywhere practically. It's what they did with Whitehair, and I fully believe he could have played RT if that was where they wanted to put him (though agree OG was a better spot). 

To a degree he has.  Hambright and Simmons were both college OTs as was Bars too I believe and we picked up Spriggs as a UFA and Traore as an UDFA.  That's four we added this year plus Bars last year along with a couple others we cut.  Ifedi was another OT we moved to RG and Hambright and Bars are listed as #2 and #3 at LG.  So from what I can see they're doing what you suggest aren't they?

Whether or not we get a shot at a top OT prospect will depend on where finish.  It we can win 10-11 games we don't have much of a shot at one of the better prospects so we need to just keep doing what we are hoping we find another "Big Cat" Williams to replace Massie.   I think Leno is safe through 2021 but we need someone coming up behind him.  Spriggs is listed as his #2 right now and that doesn't fill me with confidence.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Bears are 4-9 over the last 2 seasons when allowing 20+ points.

Now 5-9.  😛

[beardown3231]

Yikes

[G08]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Of course I'm happy. They're just going to play a better team next week, so they'll need a better effort from the offense and defense. I'm already past this game. I'm thrilled, but today's effort from all phases won't work vs GB, MIN, etc over the next few months

I moved on per your request, so why don't you? I gave a take on Ifedi.

Because it's 2 hours after they won and I'm still riding the high

[topwop1]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Of course I'm happy. They're just going to play a better team next week, so they'll need a better effort from the offense and defense. I'm already past this game. I'm thrilled, but today's effort from all phases won't work vs GB, MIN, etc over the next few months

I moved on per your request, so why don't you? I gave a take on Ifedi.

I wouldn't say Giants are better than Lions.

Stafford is obviously way better than Daniel Jones and Detroit has a better defense IMO.

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

To a degree he has.  Hambright and Simmons were both college OTs as was Bars too I believe and we picked up Spriggs as a UFA and Traore as an UDFA.  That's four we added this year plus Bars last year along with a couple others we cut.  Ifedi was another OT we moved to RG and Hambright and Bars are listed as #2 and #3 at LG.  So from what I can see they're doing what you suggest aren't they?

Whether or not we get a shot at a top OT prospect will depend on where finish.  It we can win 10-11 games we don't have much of a shot at one of the better prospects so we need to just keep doing what we are hoping we find another "Big Cat" Williams to replace Massie.   I think Leno is safe through 2021 but we need someone coming up behind him.  Spriggs is listed as his #2 right now and that doesn't fill me with confidence.

Not really. Investing 6th round and vet min guys isn't the same as making a real investment. They invested in HB with a 3rd, 7th, 4th, 5th, and another 4th. That is a concentrated effort. Going 6th, 7th, 7th and FAs making under $1 mil is just filling out a roster and hoping one can be a decent reserve. 

 

It goes back to the 401K comment I made. You can say it is an investment and will be 100% correct, but is is a lazy one that likely bears no fruits. Making safety a bigger priority than OT is something Pace has done that baffles me. 

 

I am happy to add FAs like Ifdei and Spriggs but it was a move needed due to negligence imo. Regardless the OL did much better today and I hope they can maintain that level against better defenses. It was nice to some of our OL actually having to get off the ground after a play. Definitely a much better effort bu the whole group. 

 

I still believe Trubisky will be gone after the season unless he really balls out. Foles is a great vet to bring a rookie in but I'd like to see (way too early and subject to change) us make a move for a QB in the 1st and OT in the 2nd. If we win 10 or more then it would be a struggle to move up. 

Edited September 13, 2020 by Sugashane

[beardown3231]

59 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I wouldn't say Giants are better than Lions.

Stafford is obviously way better than Daniel Jones and Detroit has a better defense IMO.

Not much better, but better. For now we can only go off of last year, and the Giants were 25th overall in D while the Lions were 31st

I agree Stafford > Jones

[soulman]

41 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Not really. Investing 6th round and vet min guys isn't the same as making a real investment. They invested in HB with a 3rd, 7th, 4th, 5th, and another 4th. That is a concentrated effort. Going 6th, 7th, 7th and FAs making under $1 mil is just filling out a roster and hoping one can be a decent reserve. 

 

It goes back to the 401K comment I made. You can say it is an investment and will be 100% correct, but is is a lazy one that likely bears no fruits. Making safety a bigger priority than OT is something Pace has done that baffles me. 

 

I am happy to add FAs like Ifdei and Spriggs but it was a move needed due to negligence imo. Regardless the OL did much better today and I hope they can maintain that level against better defenses. It was nice to some of our OL actually having to get off the ground after a play. Definitely a much better effort bu the whole group. 

 

I still believe Trubisky will be gone after the season unless he really balls out. Foles is a great vet to bring a rookie in but I'd like to see (way too early and subject to change) us make a move for a QB in the 1st and OT in the 2nd. If we win 10 or more then it would be a struggle to move up. 

You're missing my point which is once you get beyond those first few top OT prospects you can figuratively start pulling names out of hat and have just as much chance in round six or seven as you have in round three or four.  And you're hoping you might find another Leno or one of many others who are starting on NFL OL who weren't top draft picks and some even UDFA.  To get a sure fire top OT prospect you need to draft him early and we've lacked a top pick for two years running.

I've made low risk high reward investments before both for myself and my clients which is what a late round pick or an UDFA is.  But I also placed the majority of the money in positions that gave me higher than average returns for the risk I took.  Those are guys Pace has selected after round one and in the middle rounds who are now or are becoming core players.  Two second round picks made the difference between a win and a loss today.  Jaylon Johnson and Anthony Miller.

I'm not downplaying the need to continue rebuilding the OL only counseling patience.

You want to trade the Eddie Jackson pick for a 4th round OT who may be languishing on the bench or have been released by now?

Would you rather we'd drafted a 3rd round OT who might have been ranked 10th or 12th among OTs or the guy who was the 2nd or 3rd best RB?

We did pick up two good interior OL in the 2nd round and if Spriggs ups his game under Castillo we may have another decent OT who was a 2nd round pick but cost us nothing but some paychecks.  Coward has shown some promise as has Ifedi as a rookie playing RG.  So I'm gonna disagree with you in saying the OL has not be completely ignored.  If Ifedi gels at RG our interior has been rebuilt with some younger guys who can be a very solid unit and with luck another one or two will show up as good depth.

RT needs a younger body and my guess is we'll spend some draft booty on at least one OT but I can't say who or where.  We finally have a full compliment of picks again and IIRC maybe one or two more compensatory or conditional picks.  If there a low hanging fruit stud OT ranked higher than we pick I don't doubt Pace will shop around his picks looking to move up for him IF he's convinced he's his guy.  He does it in nearly every draft.  But for now Leno and Massie are it and we all know why.  So even if Pace had drafted an OT earlier Leno and Massie would still be starting and we miss out on Johnson and/or Kmet?

Let's see where this season goes.  Right now we still don't know if we're gonna need to spend a top pick on a QB or an OT.

 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

You're missing my point which is once you get beyond those first few top OT prospects you can figuratively start pulling names out of hat and have just as much chance in round six or seven as you have in round three or four.  And you're hoping you might find another Leno or one of many others who are starting on NFL OL who weren't top draft picks and some even UDFA.  To get a sure fire top OT prospect you need to draft him early and we've lacked a top pick for two years running.

I've made low risk high reward investments before both for myself and my clients which is what a late round pick or an UDFA is.  But I also placed the majority of the money in positions that gave me higher than average returns for the risk I took.  Those are guys Pace has selected after round one and in the middle rounds who are now or are becoming core players.  Two second round picks made the difference between a win and a loss today.  Jaylon Johnson and Anthony Miller.

I'm not downplaying the need to continue rebuilding the OL only counseling patience.

You want to trade the Eddie Jackson pick for a 4th round OT who may be languishing on the bench or have been released by now?

Would you rather we'd drafted a 3rd round OT who might have been ranked 10th or 12th among OTs or the guy who was the 2nd or 3rd best RB?

We did pick up two good interior OL in the 2nd round and if Spriggs ups his game under Castillo we may have another decent OT who was a 2nd round pick but cost us nothing but some paychecks.  Coward has shown some promise as has Ifedi as a rookie playing RG.  So I'm gonna disagree with you in saying the OL has not be completely ignored.  If Ifedi gels at RG our interior has been rebuilt with some younger guys who can be a very solid unit and with luck another one or two will show up as good depth.

RT needs a younger body and my guess is we'll spend some draft booty on at least one OT but I can't say who or where.  We finally have a full compliment of picks again and IIRC maybe one or two more compensatory or conditional picks.  If there a low hanging fruit stud OT ranked higher than we pick I don't doubt Pace will shop around his picks looking to move up for him IF he's convinced he's his guy.  He does it in nearly every draft.  But for now Leno and Massie are it and we all know why.  So even if Pace had drafted an OT earlier Leno and Massie would still be starting and we miss out on Johnson and/or Kmet?

Let's see where this season goes.  Right now we still don't know if we're gonna need to spend a top pick on a QB or an OT.

 

I just don't believe that at all and have seen little to support it (though I won't say there isn't evidence to prove me wrong, I've just yet to see it). Your approach (if you believe that) and Pace's approach is what is hoping for Leno. I am hoping for more. As far as a surefire thing that isn't happening. JA proved that alone an there are always busts. 

For the best returns you simply draft higher, especially on OL. A KC article did a little study into it. 

Quote

 

Of the 421 players drafted, 147 wound up as starters for at least half their career.

The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).

The later round success rates hold up well (5th and 6th - 16%, 7th - 9%)

 

So I am taking 70% and 40% success rates over 16% and 9%. I'm nowhere near as literate as you in financials or mathematics but that is a clearly better deal and far from just pulling names from a hat. 

While two 2nd rounders did make huge impacts, it is irrelevant for just a 1 game scenario. Kmet did nothing but that isn't a reason to bash 2nd round draft slots. You already know who really made a big impact from the 2nd round, Daniels and Whitehair both opened a lot of lanes and helped keep Tru clean to the tune of one sack while going against a respectable DL. Draft position is more than first round or nothing with OL and OT in particular, and when you're trying to hold up a middling QB you need really good protection and a damn good run game. If the OL coach and scouts thought the OL was a solid future OT and was ranked 10-12 I'd take him over the 3rd or 4th RB in a heartbeat. OTs you get exposed for a weakness, RBs you can plug and play if they do just one thing well. THAT is the position that you take later. 

Quote

Of the 207 players drafted 33 have become starters for half their careers. This gives an indication that there is a lot of Running Back By Committee (RBBC).
There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
If you rank the rounds by the total RBs drafted you find that the greatest number are drafted in the 7th, followed by the 4th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 5th.

Those scenarios work against you more than they help you Soul. Maybe we could have had a starting caliber OT rather than having Iggy stand on the sidelines, or Shaheen wasting space on the roster for years, Hall making zero starts, or Shelley or Ridley being sideline decorations, etc. 

Coward showed for more cause for concern than promise. Having some good practices is one thing, being exposed repeatedly in games is another and that one takes precedent. 

I'm fine with Pace doing as he sees fit, but he has still yet to have a really good OL in his 6 years. 2018 they did well passblocking but were poor as runblockers, and last year they sucked at both. I hope he hits 100% of his drafts but that is the point of the forum, for us to debate and have fun doing it. I'll happily eat my crow as long as I get to crow about when I'm right. lol

 

 

Here is one more tidbit from that article and why I firmly believe one OL per draft is needed in nearly any draft. 

Quote

 

Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Sugashane

[soulman]

I already know we don't see it the same.  And as for the study it's concerns all players not just OTs.

Leno is an above average pass blocker and an average run blocker.  He's most definitely a finesse type who could only survive in a zone scheme.  He also can't play RT at all.

So while I agree we should shoot higher to do that and have hope of being successful our odds improve if we can draft one of the top 2-3 OTs .  To do that we'd almost certainly need a top 15 pick and in some years even that wouldn't be high enough.  Once you get into even round two your odds of finding a stud OT go down drastically which is why that round is filled with more interior OL and other positions.

Then, depending on the strength of the OT position in any given draft in round 3 or early in 4 you may see a run on those left who rank not only lower as OTs but also below other positions drafted before them.  It happens almost every draft so I can't be crazy.  Some may turn out to be good OTs but far more won't even last out their rookie year or end up on someones PS hoping they can be developed just like we do.

So phuc the guys we did draft.  I'm gonna take the position that all of them ranked higher on our board than any available OT and if you believe we could have drafted an OT during the last two drafts who might be starting now in place of Leno or Massie I think you're dreaming.  If I'm running the Bears draft and need an OT I would do just as Pace has done.  I would wait 'til I had a pick that would reasonably assure me of getting a top shelf football player.

No more Chris Williams or Gabe Carimi picks based solely on need.  That didn't get us anywhere either did it?

I grant you that Pace has made a few bad picks but so has every other NFL GM.  There's always more risk of that with early picks.  But he's also made some nice scores in the 2nd and mid rounds and as it stands our OTs are serviceable at worst and due to their contracts they weren't going to be replaced anyway so why spend higher picks on OTs to sit instead of others who can contribute now?

It's an important position but a singular one.  They don't score TDs, they don't pick off passes or create turnovers, and they don't play ST.  They block on offense and that's it and furthermore while you need depth you hope like hell you don't need to use it.  So my bother I will take all of the improvements Pace has made to the very worst Bears defense I ever saw in my life under Trestman/Tucker and the improvements in our receiver core over a couple of 2nd-5th round OT backups.  JMHO

Edited September 14, 2020 by soulman

[abstract_thought]

From what I saw, the Lions were down to 3rd string DBs due to injuries. It’s a win but I think we should take it with a grain of salt when drawing conclusions about the offensive performance today.

[Sugashane]

The improvements to the Bears defense wasn't due to good drafting overall. Just look at last year's defense.

Here before Pace - Fuller

Traded for - Mack

FA - Hicks, DT, Amukamara, HHCD

Drafted -  EJax, Goldman, Smith, Floyd, RRH, Nichols

 

So in 5 drafts there were 6 guys he drafted. 2 great picks. 3 of our top 4 players were not drafted by Pace. Offensively neither OT was drafted by Pace, the former star OG wasn't, the top WR wasn't, etc. Pace has gotten his playmakers mostly outside of the draft. He ad to upgrade from Floyd too this season. 

 

Carimi and Williams weren't solely on need. They were both rated for the 1st by most draft "gurus" and would have gone soon after. Saying otherwise is revisionist history. If that was the case Kmet and Johnson in this last draft were need picks too. 

As for the OL being singular and not putting points on the board, disagree again. They block on every throw and run, and when they fail a play is almost bound to be doomed. Our OL let our RBs get hit in the backfields and one of the worst in the league in yards before contact. They were a massive reason for the 4th lowest PPG in the league. That's pretty standard for the Bears though, brag on defense that does well and watch mostly disappointing offensive drives. Most of the guys backing up aren't scoring TDs, getting INTs, or otherwise make any contributions outside of ST. The best guy we have on ST wasn't drafted by us either though. Sitting on the bench at S, CB, and other spots is somehow better than OL that can play OT AND OG though. As for being better than Massie, last year Cornelius Lucas DID outplay him. Just saying, Massie being overpaid last year doesn't mean he is actually better and doesn't absolve Pace for having an average at best RT there. You may not want to use depth, but we actually improved in a spot because of depth coming in to replace him. 

[dll2000]

On 9/8/2020 at 2:48 PM, WindyCity said:

*I am not including the QB spot because that is obvious.

1. Does the increased 12 Personnel Work

It is clear the Bears are going more 12 personnel and the good camps by both Kmet and Graham did nothing to dispel that. This means they are likely to look more like Philadelphia than they are KC. This is fine and should make things better in the run game and easier on the QBs. It would be a fundamental shift and would require monitoring as Graham is a serious cap target next offseason.

Run game was better.   Jury is still out.  

2. Does Cohen Bounce Back

This is going to be a serious cap debate, does Cohen offer enough to the offense to pay him 6-7 million/season or does Nagy over used him again and kill his producitivity.

Cohen played well.  Real story was Patterson though.  

3. Darnell Mooney

The Bears need some speed and dynamic after the catch ability in the offense, that was suppose to be Gabriel, but he was so damn small and generated next to no YAC yards. If Mooney wanted to be good that would be awesome. Cheap and young speed at WR would be a huge find.

He was only Bear to get real separation multiple times on Sunday.  I believe he was targeted 3x and caught 3 balls.   Very positive.  

4. Does the OL Bounce Back

They are better at RG. They do not have the Daniels at C foolishness, and both OTs cannot suck again can they? Massie and Leno are playing for their Bears careers as both have juicy cap room that can be saved in 2021. Can Ifedi stabilize RG and maybe earn himself a mid season pay bump and extension? The QB and offense are OL dependent and these guys simply cannot be as bad as they were a year ago.

OL looked good.  No real complaints.  Some bad blocks obviously but nobody goes a whole game without any bad plays.  Compare it to last years debut.  Go ahead. Go back and watch game 1 of last year.   Light years apart.  

And I have been bashing him, but Massie played pretty well in that game.