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GDT: @ LA Rams


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1 hour ago, WizardHawk said:

Trouble linking with phone but,

Dallas on first down.... 17 runs to 12 passes runs averaged 4.8 YPC
passes avg'd 11.1 YPA

Dak completed 11 of 12 att

 

 


 

 

This doesnt shock me. Cowboys win when Dak has control. Cowboys lose when we rely on Zeke (to much). 

And its not just the Cowboys, its the entire NFL. Sure there are outliers, but as a rule of thumb, RBs are an outdated position that serve a limited need. 

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1 hour ago, Tony7188 said:

4th and 3 in the 4th quarter and you don't kick the FG.

I am not a Cowboy fan at all. But watching the game and the circumstance I thought no way they should've gone for it either. I think analytics is behind some other sports. ANyone cna make an excuse why the play doesn't work such as "If only the receiver went a few yards further." Or "if only the offensive line blocked better." Or "If only they called for a rollout." Or if only "Dak read the play right," etc. You can dream up any excuse but that game showed little indication that Dallas could overwhelm and make the play or the defense was so lousy you can't trust. You don't take that risk.   

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Everyone wants a "modern" coach who is into "Analytics", Well HERE YOU GO

There was 12 minutes left in the game, Lets not pretend the entire outcome wouldn't have been different had the Rams not held a 3 point lead vs being tied

4th_Down

Key Takeaways:

  1. On 4th and 3 or shorter, teams should be fielding offenses and attempting to gain another set of downs across the board.
  2. From your Own 32 to the Opponent 38, outside of field-goal range while also driving closer to the enemy end zone, offenses should be gradually getting more aggressive on fourth down.
  3. From the Opponent 37 to the Opponent 14, as field-goal percentage increases, offenses should be getting gradually less aggressive on fourth down.
  4. Inside the Opponent 14, when the odds of scoring a touchdown with just one more set of downs dramatically improves, the analytics suggest teams go for it on 4th and 4.
  5. These numbers will change within the context of the game, but the general rule of thumb is that teams should be getting more aggressive late in the game as they chase points, or should be getting less aggressive late in the game as they hold a lead.
Edited by TheGame316
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3 minutes ago, elevators_rule said:

^^^^

Does that chart take into account how much time is left in the game or what the score is? I feel like those are critical points to consider and this situation is more complicated than just field position and 1st down distance.

Written right there in key takeaways

There was 12 minutes left, lots of time (Cowboys had 2 more possessions, The Rams 3)

Advanced Analytics would actually suggest they go for it with even less time. Go for the 4 point lead late and try to secure the TD vs Tie it and give the Rams the ball needing only a FG to win (With a TD, The Rams have to go the entire field to get their own TD to beat you vs just getting a FG to beat you)

There could have been 2 minutes left and statistics would tell you that you're better off going for it on 4th and 3 and trying to get a TD (or at worst kill more clock) than taking the FG. Get MORE aggressive with less time on the clock, but every situation is different in terms of how much success you are having moving the ball and how well your defense is playing

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35 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

Everyone wants a "modern" coach who is into "Analytics", Well HERE YOU GO

There was 12 minutes left in the game, Lets not pretend the entire outcome wouldn't have been different had the Rams not held a 3 point lead vs being tied

4th_Down

Key Takeaways:

  1. On 4th and 3 or shorter, teams should be fielding offenses and attempting to gain another set of downs across the board.
  2. From your Own 32 to the Opponent 38, outside of field-goal range while also driving closer to the enemy end zone, offenses should be gradually getting more aggressive on fourth down.
  3. From the Opponent 37 to the Opponent 14, as field-goal percentage increases, offenses should be getting gradually less aggressive on fourth down.
  4. Inside the Opponent 14, when the odds of scoring a touchdown with just one more set of downs dramatically improves, the analytics suggest teams go for it on 4th and 4.
  5. These numbers will change within the context of the game, but the general rule of thumb is that teams should be getting more aggressive late in the game as they chase points, or should be getting less aggressive late in the game as they hold a lead.

And following this blindly without context is why teams lose. Taking 3 points off the board late in the game when you are down by three - vs a pretty good defensive team without much time left is a bad decision. These should be "guides" and not steadfast "rules." This absolutely was one cause why Cowboys lost the game. 

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6 minutes ago, JStar221 said:

And following this blindly without context is why teams lose. Taking 3 points off the board late in the game when you are down by three - vs a pretty good defensive team without much time left is a bad decision. These should be "guides" and not steadfast "rules." This absolutely was one cause why Cowboys lost the game. 

The reason analytics tell you to go for it late in that situation is

1) 3 yards should be easy to get. odds are 66% in your favour to get the 1st down 

2) If the game is tied, the Rams will be MORE aggressive and analytics suggest they will be able to get a FG to regain the lead. By going up 4 points with a TD, The rams are now required to get their own TD to regain the lead (Low %). You can't judge the fact the Rams didn't score any more points in the last 12 minutes. The game situation was completely different for them as they still had the lead the entire time

3) Even if you don't get it, you still have ample time and opportunity to get another FG chance later in the game to tie it up (Cowboys had 2 more drives)

All of this is factored in to the analysis that a 4th and 3 chance of a potential 24-20 lead is vastly more likely to help you win then being in a 20-20 tie (remember, you also have to factor in that the FG has a miss potential and is not 100%)

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8 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

This doesnt shock me. Cowboys win when Dak has control. Cowboys lose when we rely on Zeke (to much). 

And its not just the Cowboys, its the entire NFL. Sure there are outliers, but as a rule of thumb, RBs are an outdated position that serve a limited need. 

I just don’t get having a QB that can take over a game and relying on the run game when it clearly isn’t working. 
 

Our offense looked the best when we let Dak do his thing. Why go away from that? Screw the contract you gave Zeke.

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5 minutes ago, 5x10 said:

Taken from another member here

 

Dak was 9-19 for 68 yards In the 2nd half

This includes:

  • Dalton dropping a pass that hits him in his hands for a first down.
  • Cooper forgetting he is playing a game and having a pass bounce off his stomach that would have been a first down.
  • Gallup amazing catch that was ruled OPI.

I am super confused what this is trying to prove other than showing that you didn't watch the game. We had a lot of problems. Dak wasn't one of them.

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