The Raider Appreciation Thread 📈

[Darbsk]

On 6/18/2021 at 11:58 PM, NYRaider said:

Former Raiders great PJ Hall was just arrested for assault. 

I really liked him as a prospect, looked explosive and stout too and I think I mocked him to us in the 5th round or thereabouts. I thought he'd be a really good player admittedly but seems like he is a little troubled in his personal life.

Such a shame he didn't assault the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs QBs on the field (legally of course 😁)

[Humble_Beast]

those PJ Hall and Brandon Parker picks were bad in that draft. crazy how many bad draft picks we made in recent years

[Darbsk]

15 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

those PJ Hall and Brandon Parker picks were bad in that draft. crazy how many bad draft picks we made in recent years

Yes and I think what's really killed us this last 2 decades is how little we've got from our first 2 round picks. We've had 21 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2010 (not including this year) and you could argue only Mack, Carr, Cooper, Jacobs and Miller have been productive whilst only really Mack and Carr have lived up to expectations.

I would have thought a good team would have around a 50% hit rate at Pro Bowl kind of level - though that's just a guess and of course our solitary big hit and All Pro we traded away 😂

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Yes and I think what's really killed us this last 2 decades is how little we've got from our first 2 round picks. We've had 21 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2010 (not including this year) and you could argue only Mack, Carr, Cooper, Jacobs and Miller have been productive whilst only really Mack and Carr have lived up to expectations.

I would have thought a good team would have around a 50% hit rate at Pro Bowl kind of level - though that's just a guess and of course our solitary big hit and All Pro we traded away 😂

Really what killed us is not hitting on many mid round picks. Good teams are able to identify starters in like rounds 2-4 which enables them to pay their star players because they have good starters on cheap rookie deals at other positions. 

[Darbsk]

20 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Really what killed us is not hitting on many mid round picks. Good teams are able to identify starters in like rounds 2-4 which enables them to pay their star players because they have good starters on cheap rookie deals at other positions. 

Nah, I disagree with this. We needed to hit on the big picks. They are the expensive ones and they are where most of your All Pros and Pro Bowlers come from. Ideally we'd be really good with mid rounders too but if we drafted a Carr or Miller or Cooper or Mack in every draft for the last 20 years we'd be in a much better position.

We've actually gotten some good production out of later rounders but the first and seconds are the Achilles heel I feel.

[Mr Raider]

5 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Nah, I disagree with this. We needed to hit on the big picks. They are the expensive ones and they are where most of your All Pros and Pro Bowlers come from. Ideally we'd be really good with mid rounders too but if we drafted a Carr or Miller or Cooper or Mack in every draft for the last 20 years we'd be in a much better position.

We've actually gotten some good production out of later rounders but the first and seconds are the Achilles heel I feel.

Yeah I don't think failing to hit on the mid round picks is our biggest issue. 

We obviously have not been good in that department either to be clear, but failing to hit on many 3-7 round picks is the type of issue that can keep a decent to good type of team from becoming a great team capable of competing for a super bowl. That's because those mid round picks can give you super cheap, high level play overall, and can be an alternative route to being handcuffed and overpaying other guys that have produced for your team because you have consistently brought in young players that can replace them. 

The lack of success in the first two rounds is the much bigger factor in our team having one legitimately good season in the past 18 years or so. Even if we drafted guys that didn't quite live up to the hype but were still really good players we would have had significantly more success since Grudens first stint here. But we regularly drafted guys in the first two rounds that were not only busts that failed to live up to expectations, we regularly drafted players that were massive busts that weren't even solid players for the most part. 

If you took our team and kept most of the same 3-7 round picks but let us go back and change selections of players like Russell, DHB, McClain, Hayden, Brayton, Washington, Ferrell, Conley, Edwards, Ward, Obi, Hall, Mitchell, Grove, Buchanon, Harris, etc, for guys like Calvin Johnson/Peterson/Joe Thomas instead of Russell in 07? Like basically anyone in the next 5-10 picks instead of Gallery? Tredavious White or TJ Watt instead of Conley, not trading for Palmer and using that pick on someone like Melvin Ingram, Harrison Smith, Chandler Jones, Hightower, etc. Taking Brandon Graham or Earl Thomas, Jason Pierre-Paul, Pouncey, Demaryus Thomas, or Dez Bryant, Devin McCourty, or even Jerry Hughes instead of McClain in 2010. In 2009 taking one of Orakpo, Crabtree, Malcolm Jenkins, Jeremy Maclin, Alex Mack, Michael Oher, Vontae Davis, Clay Matthews, or Hakeem Nicks instead of DHB. 07 taking Donte Whitner, Cutler, Ngata, Antonio Cromartie, Tamba Hali, Davin or Jonathan Joseph, or Nick Mangold instead of Huff... And literally on and on for virtually ever year besides 2014 (if you are talking first AND second especially).

Our biggest issue as to why we haven't even been remotely competitive and have been one of the most consistent losers in the NFL during this time frame has been instability in the front office and coaching staff and the stability that was provided was done by guys that weren't very good at their job. Whether that is Al in his later years, Hue Jackson, Reggie Mckenzie, Mayock and/or the head coaches like Shell, Kiffen, Cable, Jackson, etc. And a direct result of those biggest issues worked hand and hand with not being able to draft or develop talent with the premium assets we had. Failing to take advantage to use the resources given to the worst teams to help them not stay stuck there forever. Imo we have been bad in the mid and late rounds for a long time as well, but we've been better there then in the first and second. And had we drafted those same guys in the mid rounds onto well coached teams with talented players like the guys we passed on instead of playing next to the guys we did take may have had a huge impact on those mid round picks looking so bad. Mid and late round picks are far more a product of circumstance either for or against a team by playing around other talented players than first and second round picks (although they can still be effected by that too). 

Our biggest issue draft wise was the first and second round. It was not only taking the players we did and them being busts that failed to be what we drafted them to be, the even bigger problem has been we consistently draft those guys way earlier than almost everyone thinks they should to try and be the smartest guy in the room and they end up busting hard. So not only do we have a bust, we regularly have draft years where basically taking anyone but the guy we actually took would be a step up. We haven't just drafted the wrong guys in the first two rounds, we a lot of times have drafted guys that with hindsight look like the WORST possible selection of any players in those rounds. Seriously go back and look year by year, it seemed like with a quick browse there were at least a handful of drafts in that time span where we either had the worst player taken in the first, or at least in contention with another 3-5 teams. That just isn't something you can do with any type of regularity and expectat to win games. 

Our draft picks in rounds 3-7 have played a part in our struggles for sure, if we did better there regularly perhaps we are a 6 or 7 win team throughout a lot of those 4 win type seasons, but drafting better (at least what would be realistic and not expecting us to nail rounds 3-7 more than the best run franchises) in those rounds wouldn't have made us a good team. You just can't overcome the all time awful run we have had in the first 2 rounds over the past 20 years. Not only have we passed over better players, we have regularly taken guys that can't even be decent starters let alone a pro bowler, we have regularly taken guys that would have been upgraded by simply taking anyone else in the first round even guys that didn't live up to expectations instead. Heck with a couple guys I would argue we would have been better as a team just forfeiting the pick entirely in the first and second as opposed to taking the player and the skills we did take and having to pay them what we did. How terrible is that we have had a few first and second rounds picks that were so bad we would have been better off taking NOBODY because their play was such a negative just saving the money would have made our team at least a little better? That is the quickest way to keep a team in a 20+ year funk. Even more than being terrible from round 3 on. 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Mr Raider

[NYRaider]

5 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Nah, I disagree with this. We needed to hit on the big picks. They are the expensive ones and they are where most of your All Pros and Pro Bowlers come from. Ideally we'd be really good with mid rounders too but if we drafted a Carr or Miller or Cooper or Mack in every draft for the last 20 years we'd be in a much better position.

We've actually gotten some good production out of later rounders but the first and seconds are the Achilles heel I feel.

Our overall draft misses have hurt us but if you go back a decade how many guys drafted in round 3 or later have been good starters for us? Latavius Murray, Gabe Jackson, Justin Ellis, TJ Carrie, Johnny Townsend, Maxx Crosby, and Hunter Renfrow?

[MrOaktown_56]

11 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Nah, I disagree with this. We needed to hit on the big picks. They are the expensive ones and they are where most of your All Pros and Pro Bowlers come from. Ideally we'd be really good with mid rounders too but if we drafted a Carr or Miller or Cooper or Mack in every draft for the last 20 years we'd be in a much better position.

We've actually gotten some good production out of later rounders but the first and seconds are the Achilles heel I feel.

Yep I do think we have always tried to think outside the box too much. I think most of us would have had more success if we had picked our own 1st rounders. 

[Rolni]

When you hit on the big ones and they became All Pro guys, suddenly your mid round guys starts to be good.

Obviously not every time, but at a much higher rate.

When you have an All Pro QB, your mid round WRs will become a lot better...

When you have an All Pro LT and OC, your mid rounder OL picks start to work better...

When you have a great DE and a good DT, suddenly the mid/late round front 7 picks start to work better...

etc...

[Darbsk]

9 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Our overall draft misses have hurt us but if you go back a decade how many guys drafted in round 3 or later have been good starters for us? Latavius Murray, Gabe Jackson, Justin Ellis, TJ Carrie, Johnny Townsend, Maxx Crosby, and Hunter Renfrow?

Oh, I don't disagree that we've underperformed in nearly all aspects of the draft except maybe the 6th and 7th rounds. But we have got a number of part time starters and role players there like Mychal Rivera, Stacey McGee, Shelby Harris, Denarious Moore, DeAndre Washington, Brandon Myers plus the guys mentioned above who whilst not good starters have been complimentary players. The problem as I see it is that they've been pushed into starting roles and more expected of them due to our paucity of genuine quality starters drafted in the first two rounds. If we'd have had Calvin Johnson for example then Denarious Moore might have been a better complimentary guy rather than being thrust into a bigger role and ultimately failing. We've done poorly all round but failing to have even decent starters from our first 2 rounds has really killed us, especially as @Mr Raider points out we've drafted a number of complete busts and wasted very valuable, very high picks which generally have a good chance to be Pro Bowlers plus.

[NYRaider]

23 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Yep I do think we have always tried to think outside the box too much. I think most of us would have had more success if we had picked our own 1st rounders. 

Mayock and Gruden's biggest issue is that they're more so focused on college production rather than athletic traits. And most of the guys we've drafted had great college production because they came from big programs that were stacked with NFL talent. 

The perfect example of this is when we drafted Ferrell #4 over Josh Allen and Brian Burns. All 3 had good production in college, Burns and Allen did it on much worse teams. Ferrell was an average athlete at best while Burns and Allen were both top tier athletes. Allen has already had a 10+ sack season and Burns looks primed to be one of the elite pass rushers in the league. 

[G]

On 6/23/2021 at 2:56 AM, Darbsk said:

We've done poorly all round but failing to have even decent starters from our first 2 rounds has really killed us, especially as @Mr Raider points out we've drafted a number of complete busts and wasted very valuable, very high picks which generally have a good chance to be Pro Bowlers plus.

It would help if our needs weren't glaring weaknesses so BPA at another position could work out better. Had we gotten S Jamer over T Miller we probably would have taken Williams (G in Dallas) as he was a LT and athletic who slipped past our 2nd. Then Parker in the 3rd but Parker and Williams would both be at LT and Williams had the ability to switch to G. S wasn't a need but James when healthy is a bad man. Abram pick wouldn't have happened.

[NYRaider]

21 hours ago, G said:

It would help if our needs weren't glaring weaknesses so BPA at another position could work out better. Had we gotten S Jamer over T Miller we probably would have taken Williams (G in Dallas) as he was a LT and athletic who slipped past our 2nd. Then Parker in the 3rd but Parker and Williams would both be at LT and Williams had the ability to switch to G. S wasn't a need but James when healthy is a bad man. Abram pick wouldn't have happened.

If we would've taken Orlando Brown Jr over Parker we wouldn't have given Trent that massive contract, one of our biggest mistakes. 

[drfrey13]

On 6/24/2021 at 2:09 PM, G said:

It would help if our needs weren't glaring weaknesses so BPA at another position could work out better. Had we gotten S Jamer over T Miller we probably would have taken Williams (G in Dallas) as he was a LT and athletic who slipped past our 2nd. Then Parker in the 3rd but Parker and Williams would both be at LT and Williams had the ability to switch to G. S wasn't a need but James when healthy is a bad man. Abram pick wouldn't have happened.

Very true.  One of the reasons hy I wanted us to sign a capable player at RT before the draft.  Because we did not we were locked into that position.  I do not think anyone dislikes the Moerhig pick but everyone new that was our target.  I do not know how many people in here said we were going T and S in the first 2 rounds.

 

On 6/22/2021 at 4:34 PM, Mr Raider said:

Yeah I don't think failing to hit on the mid round picks is our biggest issue. 

We obviously have not been good in that department either to be clear, but failing to hit on many 3-7 round picks is the type of issue that can keep a decent to good type of team from becoming a great team capable of competing for a super bowl. That's because those mid round picks can give you super cheap, high level play overall, and can be an alternative route to being handcuffed and overpaying other guys that have produced for your team because you have consistently brought in young players that can replace them. 

The lack of success in the first two rounds is the much bigger factor in our team having one legitimately good season in the past 18 years or so. Even if we drafted guys that didn't quite live up to the hype but were still really good players we would have had significantly more success since Grudens first stint here. But we regularly drafted guys in the first two rounds that were not only busts that failed to live up to expectations, we regularly drafted players that were massive busts that weren't even solid players for the most part. 

If you took our team and kept most of the same 3-7 round picks but let us go back and change selections of players like Russell, DHB, McClain, Hayden, Brayton, Washington, Ferrell, Conley, Edwards, Ward, Obi, Hall, Mitchell, Grove, Buchanon, Harris, etc, for guys like Calvin Johnson/Peterson/Joe Thomas instead of Russell in 07? Like basically anyone in the next 5-10 picks instead of Gallery? Tredavious White or TJ Watt instead of Conley, not trading for Palmer and using that pick on someone like Melvin Ingram, Harrison Smith, Chandler Jones, Hightower, etc. Taking Brandon Graham or Earl Thomas, Jason Pierre-Paul, Pouncey, Demaryus Thomas, or Dez Bryant, Devin McCourty, or even Jerry Hughes instead of McClain in 2010. In 2009 taking one of Orakpo, Crabtree, Malcolm Jenkins, Jeremy Maclin, Alex Mack, Michael Oher, Vontae Davis, Clay Matthews, or Hakeem Nicks instead of DHB. 07 taking Donte Whitner, Cutler, Ngata, Antonio Cromartie, Tamba Hali, Davin or Jonathan Joseph, or Nick Mangold instead of Huff... And literally on and on for virtually ever year besides 2014 (if you are talking first AND second especially).

Our biggest issue as to why we haven't even been remotely competitive and have been one of the most consistent losers in the NFL during this time frame has been instability in the front office and coaching staff and the stability that was provided was done by guys that weren't very good at their job. Whether that is Al in his later years, Hue Jackson, Reggie Mckenzie, Mayock and/or the head coaches like Shell, Kiffen, Cable, Jackson, etc. And a direct result of those biggest issues worked hand and hand with not being able to draft or develop talent with the premium assets we had. Failing to take advantage to use the resources given to the worst teams to help them not stay stuck there forever. Imo we have been bad in the mid and late rounds for a long time as well, but we've been better there then in the first and second. And had we drafted those same guys in the mid rounds onto well coached teams with talented players like the guys we passed on instead of playing next to the guys we did take may have had a huge impact on those mid round picks looking so bad. Mid and late round picks are far more a product of circumstance either for or against a team by playing around other talented players than first and second round picks (although they can still be effected by that too). 

Our biggest issue draft wise was the first and second round. It was not only taking the players we did and them being busts that failed to be what we drafted them to be, the even bigger problem has been we consistently draft those guys way earlier than almost everyone thinks they should to try and be the smartest guy in the room and they end up busting hard. So not only do we have a bust, we regularly have draft years where basically taking anyone but the guy we actually took would be a step up. We haven't just drafted the wrong guys in the first two rounds, we a lot of times have drafted guys that with hindsight look like the WORST possible selection of any players in those rounds. Seriously go back and look year by year, it seemed like with a quick browse there were at least a handful of drafts in that time span where we either had the worst player taken in the first, or at least in contention with another 3-5 teams. That just isn't something you can do with any type of regularity and expectat to win games. 

Our draft picks in rounds 3-7 have played a part in our struggles for sure, if we did better there regularly perhaps we are a 6 or 7 win team throughout a lot of those 4 win type seasons, but drafting better (at least what would be realistic and not expecting us to nail rounds 3-7 more than the best run franchises) in those rounds wouldn't have made us a good team. You just can't overcome the all time awful run we have had in the first 2 rounds over the past 20 years. Not only have we passed over better players, we have regularly taken guys that can't even be decent starters let alone a pro bowler, we have regularly taken guys that would have been upgraded by simply taking anyone else in the first round even guys that didn't live up to expectations instead. Heck with a couple guys I would argue we would have been better as a team just forfeiting the pick entirely in the first and second as opposed to taking the player and the skills we did take and having to pay them what we did. How terrible is that we have had a few first and second rounds picks that were so bad we would have been better off taking NOBODY because their play was such a negative just saving the money would have made our team at least a little better? That is the quickest way to keep a team in a 20+ year funk. Even more than being terrible from round 3 on. 

2 words:  Arron Rodgers

We had made some bad picks before 2005 but that was the turning point for me.  I was sure he was going to be the pick that year when he fell.  If we draft Rodgers and let him sit behind Collins we do not draft Russell in 2007 a lot changes after that.  Even if we are drafting 5-10 we could have grabbed Peterson, Willis, or the hometown boy Lynch.  8 of the top 15 players were pro bowlers and would have been a lot cheaper.

[Darbsk]

On 6/24/2021 at 6:41 AM, NYRaider said:

Mayock and Gruden's biggest issue is that they're more so focused on college production rather than athletic traits. And most of the guys we've drafted had great college production because they came from big programs that were stacked with NFL talent. 

The perfect example of this is when we drafted Ferrell #4 over Josh Allen and Brian Burns. All 3 had good production in college, Burns and Allen did it on much worse teams. Ferrell was an average athlete at best while Burns and Allen were both top tier athletes. Allen has already had a 10+ sack season and Burns looks primed to be one of the elite pass rushers in the league. 

Not to dispute your point as I think you do have a point, but I think we were drafting specifically for 'fit' with Paul Guenther's system and clearly Allen and Burns were seen as too light in the pants by PG and not 'complete' DEs.

Sweat was the guy I thought would be the best overall DE and if we were drafting for fit then Ferrell seems to be the best fitting player - using the scheme we were going to be playing at that time. Of course when you draft a DE in the top 5 everyone is going to look at the sacks and pressures stats and rightly so as that is the big play aspect.

Ferrel was clearly the lesser pass rusher of the 4 options and I don't think even our FO would have thought he's a better pure pass rusher than the others so the justification I can see is that they thought the others wouldn't hold up as full time DEs in our particular scheme. Now, that may be proved wrong over time of course and Burns does look really good though not great against the run, not sold on Allen just yet. I wasn't mad at the Ferrell pick to be totally honest, thought he'd be much better than he's been but I do expect a big year from him this year, if not he will definitely deserve the 'bust' label.

I do think we did put too much stock in the 'Clemson' and championship link and it does seem to be a thing as we overdrafted Leatherwood this year too and have repeatedly gone back to the Clemson, Ohio St and Alabama 'wells'. We seem to over value that a little I guess but time will tell and this is a massive 3rd year for Allen, Sweat, Burns and Ferrell and could ultimately decide their pecking order and how they are perceived.

Of course we do have Crosby who from a purely stats perspective has outperformed them all 😁😁

Edited June 26, 2021 by Darbsk