The Raider Appreciation Thread 📈

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

If you're one of the best edge players in the league you shouldn't be coming off the field in passing situations for Arden Key. 

32nd is not one of the “best” players in the league lol. That’s basically average. 

[NYRaider]

10 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

32nd is not one of the “best” players in the league lol. That’s basically average. 

Assuming every team has about 5 defensive ends on their roster wouldn't that put him in like the 75th-80th percentile? 

[Mr Raider]

On 5/28/2021 at 2:34 PM, NYRaider said:

Assuming every team has about 5 defensive ends on their roster wouldn't that put him in like the 75th-80th percentile? 

It makes him a starter or starting caliber player. 

On the scale of everyone in the entire world and their ability to play DE sure that would slot in Ferell (and Crosby and basically every guy in the NFL on a game day roster) better than great, in the ultra elite category. 

But when, I at least, use the word great, that's a small notch below elite on my scale. Great to me means that you are not only a starter in the league, you are a pro bowl caliber talent and your production backs it up. But when I use those words it's in comparison to other NFL caliber players, not the population as a whole or even the guys at the very end of the roster, those guys are graded differently IMO. On my scale it goes like this

Elite - one of the best handful or so at your position in the NFL. Potential HOF type player depending on their longevity.

Great -  Top 10-15 (15 being generous because that would mainly be the deepest positions in the league during a strong era at that position, WR at times, CB, DE, it's usually closer to top 10 depending on the position.) Pro bowl caliber player. Guys that go in the Hall of very good type players. Some of these guys get put into the current HOF because of post season success or playing a ridiculously long career that gives a bunch of bulk stats. Or both. And at times guys I would consider great but not elite are young and progress into the elite category. It's rare with how I rank players to see someone that has been in the league 5-6+ to make the leap from great to elite because it's probably the biggest cliff to overcome in how I view players. But usually with these types of guys it's pretty clear to see the differences between a great and elite player. Think the gap between a player like prime Philip Rivers and prime Peyton Manning/Tom Brady. 

Good - is an above average starter that isn't a liability but isn't someone people game plan against. These guys may make the odd pro bowl or two because of how many guys pass now, and they may very well have a long NFL career, but they are never among the best at their position or one of the biggest factors in a team winning a super bowl or more. Usually this is where players that end up being great or elite start their careers as good players. There are rare exceptions like Adrian Peterson who was arguably elite year one. Most of the time the best rookie in a year is someone I would consider a good but not great or elite player until they improve or at least show it for multiple seasons. 

Average - Not a liability but not an asset. Could be a guy that the team looks to replace sooner than later. Won't keep you from winning games but not going to be what drives your team. As many good plays as bad. These guys are your worst starting type of player on offense or defense. This is closer to where I think most rookies that see significant starts begin their career in year one and sometimes year two before progressing. Though the guys that end up busting hard don't ever play at even an average level. 

Below Average - More mistakes than positive plays, but not a total liability either. These are your spot starters that can hold the fort down for a couple of games but any longer it becomes a huge problem. These are your depth guys and possibly great special teams players. 

Bad - These are your bottom of the roster players and guys that are strictly on the team for special teams (where they can be great at). Typically young guys that could just as easily be practice squad or cut one week to the next. 

Obviously the guys I consider below average and bad players are in comparison to other NFL caliber players not all football players in general. And I would grade on a curve for guys that are depth players/bottom of the roster/special teams guys if they are forced into significant starter snaps for long stretches. They may play very poorly, but they have much lower expectations. 

So even though Ferrell is a starter or whatever, he's far from proven he is a great NFL DE. His ceiling might be that of a great player, a guy that is very well rounded, but I am confident in saying that he has shown enough for me to feel confident in saying he will never be an elite DE overall. 

And I don't think saying a guy is 32nd or in that ball park means he's a great player just because he's an NFL starter. Obviously it means among the entire population he's a great athlete because very few could even be as good as him at the NFL level. But obviously when we talk about these guys on this forum and compare them, we are comparing them to other NFL players (and in this case other NFL starting caliber players). 

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Mr Raider

[Mr Raider]

On a semi related note, I'll go ahead and share my thoughts on Ferrell to this point, my opinion on his future outlook, and the front 4 in a kind of general sense...

Perception and where guys were drafted play a huge part obviously. Ferrell was perceived as a huge reach on draft day, and he was a reach that was selected in the top 5. So I would argue that anyone drafted in the top 5 has enormous expectations put on them by fans, media, the coaching staff and front offices. When you are a guy that was deemed as such a massive reach I believe the expectations become significantly more magnified to an almost impossible to reach level because you not only need to prove you are worthy of your lofty draft selection by being a good player overall you also need to prove the front office right in drafting you much higher than people expected and thus better than everyone else drafted at your position after you. So being a good player isn't enough you have to be better than 2 or 3 guys drafted after you that were expected to go in front of you. That isn't the case for every single draft selection. Essentially I think Ferrell when he was drafted by us in the top 5 he was instantly put in a position where the pressure and expectations were greater on him than had we taken Allen or Burns (I'd argue maybe even Sweat before the first round was finished). Had we taken any of those other guys and they played at Farrells level they would still be under a lot of pressure and have fans ready to label them a bust, but their play wouldn't have as much of a direct impact on the GM and HC and their future as Ferrell has had because they would be seen as guys that were drafted closer to where the media and fans expected so them busting is just your every year more typical bust. Had we drafted any of those guys they would just need to be a good player, even if we drafted Allen and he had been solid but not as great as Burns it wouldn't be viewed like that as much.

Ferrell has shown flashes. I would argue he has been very good in run defense. But one DE being a good run defender means very little if the rest of the front 7 is bad in run defense. Ferrell has shown flashes in like 3 or 4 games of being an extremely disruptive player that has a big impact on games rushing the passer. And if he could show closer to that with more consistency he would be a great DE. But 3 or 4 games in 2 seasons just isn't enough. If he takes the steps and shows up as that guy more often this season it won't result in 12+ sacks. That just isn't his game. But it could mean 7-9 sacks and one of the best run defenders in the NFL at his position. Which would make him one of the most well rounded in the NFL as well. Would it make the majority feel he was worth a top 5 pick? Probably not, especially if Burns/Sweat/Allen become elite pass rushers. But if he can become that type of player he is a guy that you can continue to want to keep around and build up the other spots as opposed to feeling pressure to replace him to get better play and also to try and get everyone to kind of forget about the mistake made taking him so high on draft day. That is kind of shaping up to be the best win the front office can have with Ferrell at this point. Fair or not. 

I wouldn't say Ferrell is currently "great" in any aspect. I would say he's a good run defender, he's decent in terms of versatility, I would say he's solid when it comes to technique, I would say he's good good strength, but below average to bad explosiveness and quickness for a DE (thus the attempts to use him inside where I would say among 3T he has really good explosiveness and quickness). 

I am not ready to write Ferrell off yet. I think he's played with humongous expectations, he's played under poor NFL coaching, with very little talent around him as a whole and especially on the DL and in coverage which goes hand and hand with pass rushers level of play, and he played last year banged up and slowed by covid in a year where a lot of first and second year guys saw an uphill battle worse than almost every other first and second year players in modern NFL history. I do think Bradley is capable of getting his full potential out of him by understanding the role that is going to suit him best. Can he be a lesser Michael Bennett type of inside out presence? I absolutely still think there's hope there. But we all should be accepting of the fact he will never be the dominant EDGE rusher that gets you 12+ sacks every year you expect when drafting someone in the top 5. That is unfortunate but doesn't mean Ferrell can't have a positive impact. But he, like a lot of guys on the roster currently are entering a year where they won't get much more benefit of the doubt. Excuses aren't going to be accepted. They won't be guaranteed many more opportunities and significant game day reps. He needs to show more, at least take a step forward and show more consistency. Bradley and Yannick will be the biggest things to help Ferrell take that leap IMO. In terms of sacks and pressure there is a WIDE open opportunity for Ferrell as our best and primary interior rusher if he's up to the task. Nobody is entrenched there and everyone else has at least as many question marks and need to put it together as Ferrell. I do think our best pure pass rushing set could end up being 

Yannick

Ferrell

Thomas

Crosby

And IMO that could be a very productive and effective NASCAR type package. Though obviously would be really weak against the run. But a set of

Yannick

Ferrell

Hankins/Jefferson

Crosby/Thomas 

Could be a solid more well rounded DL that can get to the QB without being so open to being ran on. 

And then obviously you can mix and match and put out something like

Ferrell

Jefferson

Hankins

Thomas 

Out there as a bigger pure run stuffing DL and/or try and get creative and put Yannick at the SLB role and try and cause confusion and create pressure that way. 

Our DL has a ton of question marks and guys that need to show some signs of life/development. But the one thing I do think could end up being our biggest strength overall is the versatility in the group. A lot of these guys will be given chances to show what they can do, and not only at one very specific spot but at multiple spots. But that only becomes a real asset if the guys are good at the spots they offer versatility. But I do get the approach of bringing in a group of guys that all have question marks but on paper have the potential to fill multiple roles if the role they originally envisioned in doesn't work out. We have a bunch of scratch off tickets but we bought scratch offs that allow us to play multiple winning numbers on every scratch off lol. 

[BayRaider]

13 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Assuming every team has about 5 defensive ends on their roster wouldn't that put him in like the 75th-80th percentile? 

There are 64 starters. Backups are all below average. So you’re saying every starter is really good? 
 

Are all 32 QBs good since there are 96 QBs?
 

Your logic is awful. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by BayRaider

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

There are 64 starters. Backups are all below average. So you’re saying every starter is really good? 
 

Are all 32 QBs good since there are 96 QBs?
 

Your logic is awful. 

Your logic is awful comparing QB and DE because players actually rotate in and out at DE.

[reddevil]

4 hours ago, Mr Raider said:

On a semi related note, I'll go ahead and share my thoughts on Ferrell to this point, my opinion on his future outlook, and the front 4 in a kind of general sense...

Perception and where guys were drafted play a huge part obviously. Ferrell was perceived as a huge reach on draft day, and he was a reach that was selected in the top 5. So I would argue that anyone drafted in the top 5 has enormous expectations put on them by fans, media, the coaching staff and front offices. When you are a guy that was deemed as such a massive reach I believe the expectations become significantly more magnified to an almost impossible to reach level because you not only need to prove you are worthy of your lofty draft selection by being a good player overall you also need to prove the front office right in drafting you much higher than people expected and thus better than everyone else drafted at your position after you. So being a good player isn't enough you have to be better than 2 or 3 guys drafted after you that were expected to go in front of you. That isn't the case for every single draft selection. Essentially I think Ferrell when he was drafted by us in the top 5 he was instantly put in a position where the pressure and expectations were greater on him than had we taken Allen or Burns (I'd argue maybe even Sweat before the first round was finished). Had we taken any of those other guys and they played at Farrells level they would still be under a lot of pressure and have fans ready to label them a bust, but their play wouldn't have as much of a direct impact on the GM and HC and their future as Ferrell has had because they would be seen as guys that were drafted closer to where the media and fans expected so them busting is just your every year more typical bust. Had we drafted any of those guys they would just need to be a good player, even if we drafted Allen and he had been solid but not as great as Burns it wouldn't be viewed like that as much.

Ferrell has shown flashes. I would argue he has been very good in run defense. But one DE being a good run defender means very little if the rest of the front 7 is bad in run defense. Ferrell has shown flashes in like 3 or 4 games of being an extremely disruptive player that has a big impact on games rushing the passer. And if he could show closer to that with more consistency he would be a great DE. But 3 or 4 games in 2 seasons just isn't enough. If he takes the steps and shows up as that guy more often this season it won't result in 12+ sacks. That just isn't his game. But it could mean 7-9 sacks and one of the best run defenders in the NFL at his position. Which would make him one of the most well rounded in the NFL as well. Would it make the majority feel he was worth a top 5 pick? Probably not, especially if Burns/Sweat/Allen become elite pass rushers. But if he can become that type of player he is a guy that you can continue to want to keep around and build up the other spots as opposed to feeling pressure to replace him to get better play and also to try and get everyone to kind of forget about the mistake made taking him so high on draft day. That is kind of shaping up to be the best win the front office can have with Ferrell at this point. Fair or not. 

I wouldn't say Ferrell is currently "great" in any aspect. I would say he's a good run defender, he's decent in terms of versatility, I would say he's solid when it comes to technique, I would say he's good good strength, but below average to bad explosiveness and quickness for a DE (thus the attempts to use him inside where I would say among 3T he has really good explosiveness and quickness). 

I am not ready to write Ferrell off yet. I think he's played with humongous expectations, he's played under poor NFL coaching, with very little talent around him as a whole and especially on the DL and in coverage which goes hand and hand with pass rushers level of play, and he played last year banged up and slowed by covid in a year where a lot of first and second year guys saw an uphill battle worse than almost every other first and second year players in modern NFL history. I do think Bradley is capable of getting his full potential out of him by understanding the role that is going to suit him best. Can he be a lesser Michael Bennett type of inside out presence? I absolutely still think there's hope there. But we all should be accepting of the fact he will never be the dominant EDGE rusher that gets you 12+ sacks every year you expect when drafting someone in the top 5. That is unfortunate but doesn't mean Ferrell can't have a positive impact. But he, like a lot of guys on the roster currently are entering a year where they won't get much more benefit of the doubt. Excuses aren't going to be accepted. They won't be guaranteed many more opportunities and significant game day reps. He needs to show more, at least take a step forward and show more consistency. Bradley and Yannick will be the biggest things to help Ferrell take that leap IMO. In terms of sacks and pressure there is a WIDE open opportunity for Ferrell as our best and primary interior rusher if he's up to the task. Nobody is entrenched there and everyone else has at least as many question marks and need to put it together as Ferrell. I do think our best pure pass rushing set could end up being 

Yannick

Ferrell

Thomas

Crosby

And IMO that could be a very productive and effective NASCAR type package. Though obviously would be really weak against the run. But a set of

Yannick

Ferrell

Hankins/Jefferson

Crosby/Thomas 

Could be a solid more well rounded DL that can get to the QB without being so open to being ran on. 

And then obviously you can mix and match and put out something like

Ferrell

Jefferson

Hankins

Thomas 

Out there as a bigger pure run stuffing DL and/or try and get creative and put Yannick at the SLB role and try and cause confusion and create pressure that way. 

Our DL has a ton of question marks and guys that need to show some signs of life/development. But the one thing I do think could end up being our biggest strength overall is the versatility in the group. A lot of these guys will be given chances to show what they can do, and not only at one very specific spot but at multiple spots. But that only becomes a real asset if the guys are good at the spots they offer versatility. But I do get the approach of bringing in a group of guys that all have question marks but on paper have the potential to fill multiple roles if the role they originally envisioned in doesn't work out. We have a bunch of scratch off tickets but we bought scratch offs that allow us to play multiple winning numbers on every scratch off lol. 

Excellent post and raise some interesting points.

I really do think that one of the most overlooked parts of drafting a player higher than where he was projected is the pressure it directly puts on them. It sets in motion (as you describe) a burden for the player to be forever compared to higher ranked players picked after them.

It also puts a strain on the relationship from the FO and coaches who will put additional pressure on said player to live up to the high pick status they themselves put on them. So, in a sense, it amplifies the internal pressure on the coaches to make the player more than he actually is.

The other issue with being picked high is the 5th year option. Even if Ferrell plays well next year and earns the right for a new contract and to become a ‘foundation piece’ as a solid player, will it be enough for him to warrant the 5th year option at the position he was drafted at? 

 

[Mr Raider]

5 hours ago, reddevil said:

Excellent post and raise some interesting points.

I really do think that one of the most overlooked parts of drafting a player higher than where he was projected is the pressure it directly puts on them. It sets in motion (as you describe) a burden for the player to be forever compared to higher ranked players picked after them.

It also puts a strain on the relationship from the FO and coaches who will put additional pressure on said player to live up to the high pick status they themselves put on them. So, in a sense, it amplifies the internal pressure on the coaches to make the player more than he actually is.

The other issue with being picked high is the 5th year option. Even if Ferrell plays well next year and earns the right for a new contract and to become a ‘foundation piece’ as a solid player, will it be enough for him to warrant the 5th year option at the position he was drafted at? 

 

That's a very good point on the 5th year option. I believe it would be something like 9 million to pick up his option. Which would only be on par with like the 30th highest paid DE, but 9 million isn't chump change by any means and while it might not be enough to get a high end DE, 9 million and change most certainly can get you a decent to good starter at a number of positions like CB, S, G, TE, LB, etc. 

Ferrell will have to take a pretty substantial step in order for me to feel confident in the idea that picking up his option would be the best decision and use of that type of money. He doesn't need to become that 10+ sack guy, but I would like to see 7 or 8. If he can come closer to that type of play and the improvement it would mean he showed it would make that decision a much simpler one. 

[BayRaider]

11 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Your logic is awful comparing QB and DE because players actually rotate in and out at DE.

Yes and the 3 backup DE’s on a team are backups because they are below-average. Lol go make a thread in NFL Gen if you think my logic is wrong. I’m not in the minority here. 32nd Ranked DE = Average. 
 

I’d probably say 

1-12 Studs

13-26 Above Average

27-40 Average

41-onwards Below-Average

Not every starter is average. Saying every starter is average is asinine. And backups are not starters for a reason, they are not good enough. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by BayRaider

[KlenlyKenny]

Clelin Ferrell's a interesting case, first thing to note is he was drafted to high. He's got to prove his worth right away this season in order to see there being a big impact coming from him. Just way too much inconsistency on his part and as a starter he should be performing at a higher rate. 

[NYRaider]

On 5/29/2021 at 12:12 PM, BayRaider said:

Yes and the 3 backup DE’s on a team are backups because they are below-average. Lol go make a thread in NFL Gen if you think my logic is wrong. I’m not in the minority here. 32nd Ranked DE = Average. 
 

I’d probably say 

1-12 Studs

13-26 Above Average

27-40 Average

41-onwards Below-Average

Not every starter is average. Saying every starter is average is asinine. And backups are not starters for a reason, they are not good enough. 

I wouldn't even say Ferrell is average at this point. Solid run defender for sure but pretty much a non-pass rusher. 

[oakdb36]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-cornerback-rankings-the-32-best-outside-cornerbacks-entering-the-2021-nfl-season

Quote

Hayward has been one of the highest-graded cornerbacks in the league for much of his career, spanning across time spent with both the Packers and the Los Angeles Chargers. He graded at 75.0 or higher in every season that he saw more than 100 snaps from 2012 through 2019, and he did it all while posting the highest forced incompletion rate in the NFL.

That all came to a halt with the Chargers in 2020, as Hayward earned a PFF grade of just 59.5 while allowing nearly 17 yards per reception into his coverage. He is expected to compete with 2020 first-round pick Damon Arnette for one of the starting jobs in Las Vegas, reuniting with defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. It shouldn’t come as a shock if he wins that starting job and rebounds from a down 2020 season.

 

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-cornerback-rankings-the-32-best-outside-cornerbacks-entering-the-2021-nfl-season

 

#32 we made it baby, surprised that Jaylon Johnson didn't make the list since everyone here acts like he's Revis 2.0.

[NYRaider]

For PFF's top 32 players lists we have: 

Darren Waller: #3 TE

Josh Jacobs: #9 RB

Derek Carr: #13 QB

Nick Kwit: #18 LB

Richie Incognito: #18 OG

Cory Littleton: #22 LB

Kolton Miller: #23 OT

Yannick Ngakoue: #23 DE

Kenyan Drake: #31 RB

Andre James: #32 C

Clelin Ferrell: #32 DE

Casey Hayward: #32 CB

 

[oakdb36]

24 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

#32 we made it baby, surprised that Jaylon Johnson didn't make the list since everyone here acts like he's Revis 2.0.

Hayward was probably top 10 on the same list last year.

Edited June 1, 2021 by oakdb36