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Pastor Dillon

2020 Stat Watch

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Just to pour salt in an open wound, Hopkins leads the nfl in catches and yards after 3 games. 
 

im happy for him. With the airraid offense in Arizona, he’s gonna shoot up all time lists. He will always be one of my favorite players. 

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59 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Just to pour salt in an open wound, Hopkins leads the nfl in catches and yards after 3 games. 
 

im happy for him. With the airraid offense in Arizona, he’s gonna shoot up all time lists. He will always be one of my favorite players. 

I knew this was the future - Hopkins was motivated to show BoB up.

Right now, unless Blacklock or Johnson start putting together a string of All Pro games, this trade is a lopsided win for Arizona. There's really no way this can turn around for BoB.

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I am renewed in my love for stats now that they aren't empty stats that are enabling a poor coach. I am all in on wanting our guys to do big numbers this year, especially Watson, he has a chance to be an all time great at QB and every season, his numbers matter for where he will be at in 10 years. 

Let's dive into PFF rankings 1/4 of the way through the season, they aren't good:

Watson 75.0 (13th)
David Johnson 62.9 (34th)
Will Fuller 75.8 (20th)
Cooks 66.8 (67th)
Cobb 71.4 (40th)
Akins 72.4 (16th)

We have ZERO skilled players who rank top 10 at their position

Tunsil 82.6 (8th)
Howard 58.1 (60th)
Fulton 63.7 (30th)
Scharping 49.1 (68th)
Kelemete 64.2 (28th)
Martin 66.4 (19th)

The line has struggled, but we rank better than I would expect with Kelemete and Martin. Tunsil is a beast with 0 penalties and 0 sacks allowed. Howard and Scharping have regressed. Hopefully this firing will light a fire in them. 

 

Defense is bad as well

Hall 67.7 (46th)
Dunn 41.9 (112th)
Watkins 59.2 (76th)
Blacklock 40.1 (unranked)
Watt 69.5 (27th)
Omenihu 51.4 (96th)
This is about what you would expect from the worst run defense in football

Mercilus 48.4 (105th)
Cunningham 31.7 (73rd)
Think about those two who have 50 million in dead money if we cut them
Martin 70.1 (25th) for reference Clowney is at 72.9(15th) 
Scarlett 49.4 (102nd)
McKinney 53.4 (39th)

The seconday has been trash, like we all knew it would be
Roby 60.1 (58th)
Hargreaves 41.5 (103rd)
Lonnie Johnson 51.2 (60th)
Justin Reid 62.4 (35th)
Eric Murray 66.7 (19th) I found this one interesting because people have been knocking the Murray signing, but hes been our most consistent player in the secondary. 

 

PFF is not the end all be all of football ratings, but they do seem to be fairly accurate. The only top 10 player we have at any position is Tunsil. That seems more than fair. 
 

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Also with the Quarter of the year stats and awards:

MVP: Deshaun Watson
ROY: John Reid (by default)
DPOY: Jamie Martin
 

here is a look at stat PROJECTIONS, based on current stats times 4:

 

Watson 4,368 passing 24 TDs, 12Ints
These numbers aren't bad, but I would like to see 30 TDs and 10ints

David Johnson 788 yards rushing 400 yards receiving 8 TDs (would be a failure of a season)

Will Fuller 1,096 yards 8 TDs 
I would like these numbers. it means he stays healthy but also doesn't price himself out of our range this off season

Cobb 852 yards 4 TDs (good number 2 WR numbers)
Cooks 552 yards (not worth a 2nd round pick)
Akins 672 yards 4 TDs (decent season for a TE)

On defense, we currently don't have anyone trending for more than 8 sacks, though Omenihu would be considered a success at 8 sacks. 

Roby is on pace for 12 PDs 

no one is on pace for a turnover. 

 

at our current pace, Tunsil will make the pro bowl, and Watson might make it if guys drop out. in the AFC you have Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson looking like the 3 pro bowlers, one of which will drop out most likely due to the Super Bowl. That leaves several guys fighting over that last spot. If you just look at passing yards, watson trails Minshew, Burrow, and Carr....then there is Big Ben, and Phillip Rivers who could get the old man call ups to the pro bowl. 

lot of season left to play though! 

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8 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

MVP: Deshaun Watson

I'd actually give it to Tunsil. He's been the best player on offense and is probably the only reason Watson isn't sacked 10 times a game.

Watson should move up and have a great 2Q run to stabilize his numbers, but he's really scattershot right now. I can't say in good faith he's our most valuable player...

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9 hours ago, ET80 said:

I'd actually give it to Tunsil. He's been the best player on offense and is probably the only reason Watson isn't sacked 10 times a game.

Watson should move up and have a great 2Q run to stabilize his numbers, but he's really scattershot right now. I can't say in good faith he's our most valuable player...

I could see giving it to Tunsil. Honestly didn’t cross my mind to give it to a linemen but you are correct, he’s been our best player. 

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5 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

I could see giving it to Tunsil. Honestly didn’t cross my mind to give it to a linemen but you are correct, he’s been our best player. 

It's rare, but that's what you get at 0-4.

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Ill have more to say stay wise later but now that Prescott is out, Watson is 5th in the league in passing yards, just 52 yards out of first. If we are gonna let him sling it, he’s got a legit chance at finishing number 1

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Tunsil is the number 1 pass blocking tackle in the NFL according to PFF. That’s what you want for that kind of money. He struggles in the run game but I’m not as worried about it. 

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Ill have more to say later this week I am sure, but off the top of my head, one thing that sticks out is that Watson has only been sacked 6 times the last 3 games...which would be a pace for 32 sacks in a season...he was sacked 44 times last year....so that would be a huge improvement....as it stands today, hes on pace to be sacked 50 for the year, but hopefully the improvement continues. 

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Season goal alert: Watson is on pace to throw for 4,762 yards....the all time texans record is 4770 yards.....id very much like to see him break that 

Remember the better he looks, the more appealing our head coaching job becomes

Just FYI, in the 2 games post BOB Watson has 694 yards passing 7 TDs 2 INTs and has completed over 70% of his passes

 

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1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Season goal alert: Watson is on pace to throw for 4,762 yards....the all time texans record is 4770 yards.....id very much like to see him break that 

Remember the better he looks, the more appealing our head coaching job becomes

Just FYI, in the 2 games post BOB Watson has 694 yards passing 7 TDs 2 INTs and has completed over 70% of his passes

 

He is also now on pace to be the first Texans QB to throw 30 or more touchdowns in a season.

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Deshaun Watson, post BoB:

53/72 (73.6) 694 yards 7 TDs/*2 INTs.

(*Both INTs were on tipped balls)

It's only two games in, but it seems like BoB WAS holding Watson back - by a lot. 

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Deshaun Watson, post BoB:

53/72 (73.6) 694 yards 7 TDs/*2 INTs.

(*Both INTs were on tipped balls)

It's only two games in, but it seems like BoB WAS holding Watson back - by a lot. 

When we just let him sling it, he’s unstoppable. 

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I'll post this in the GDT, but wanted to post it here as well - yesterday, the 601 yards that the Texans defense gave up is the most this team has given up in franchise history.

That's enough to get folks fired - and it should be the case. I was high on him, but Anthony Weaver is a disaster as a DC.

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