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Pastor Dillon

2020 Stat Watch

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I am really a fan of having Fuller and Cooks at WR, obviously we can't pay both of them next year, but perhaps we can get cooks to renegotiate his deal....maybe give him  3/27 type deal and give Fuller a 4/48 million deal.....that would still put us on the hook for a lot of money for our 3 WRs, but I really like the dynamic. 

Here is the current pace of our 3 WRs

Fuller 1,213 yards
Cooks 978
Cobb 738

That all includes the games with BOB, and the offense has clearly opened up more since then....if we looked at just the last 2 games, and projected that for the next 10, we would see could realistically see numbers like this:

Fuller 1,360
Cooks 1,512
Cobb 597

I really don't think cooks is gonna get those kind of numbers, but its clear that Watson is wanting to feed him the ball more. 

There is probably not anyway we can keep all 3, if we wanted to, here is the way

Cooks 12 million
Cobb 10.6 million
Fuller (Franchise Tag) about 18 million

thats 40 million tied up in those 3 guys....that can't happen

This season we have 

Cooks 8 million
Cobb 6 million
Fuller 10 million
Stills 7 million

thats 31 million tied up

we can not cut Cobb, so hes a lock. Stills will be gone

So assuming we get a 4th WR that is Coulter, Carter, or Coutee who makes very little, the only way we can keep the current payroll is to get Fuller and Cooks to both sign for about 10 million per season. If we did that, we would be just as well off as we are today.

Otherwise we are choosing between Fuller who will be 27 and cooks who will be 28

To see how hard that would be to manage, here are some of the recent signings of good WRs

Diggs is a 14 million cap hit
AJ Green is a 18 million Cap hit
Julio Jones is a 20 million cap hit
Amri Cooper is a 12 million cap hit

 

 

I would say Cooper is the most comparable to Cooks. About the same age, played on multiple teams, several thousand yard seasons but never considered one of the best. 
Cooper signed a 5/100 million deal that only has a 12 million hit this year, but jumps to 20 million the next several years. The numbers say they are alike but I really dont think cooks will have the market that Cooper had. 

Diggs is a good comp for Fuller, assuming Fuller stays healthy this season and produces. Diggs is about the same age, and had several sub 1,000 yard seasons early on before turning it  on. Diggs got a 5/72 million deal that has a 14 million cap hit this season and drops into the 11s the next couple years. I would not mind this exact deal for Fuller.

Either way, it looks like we will lose one of them after this season, which is why a 2nd round pick was a waste for Cooks. He was worth it if we had the ability to keep him long term. 

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Another look at Cooks contract

He's got 3 years 36 million left on his deal, but no guaranteed money

If we were to change that to a 3/30 but give him 6 million signing and 20 million guaranteed, he gets to know hes getting paid, and his cap hit becomes 10 million per season instead of 12, 13, 14 knowing hes a few concussions away from not getting paid ever again. 

I think we have to keep cooks if we can get that cap hit down to 10 million. 10 million a year for a 1,000 yard WR is reasonable. Unless he wants to force us to cut him thinking he can get more on the open market. We could always offer him a 4/36 million deal with 8 million in bonus money....gets his cap hit to an average of 9 million per season and gives him more security. Or we could simply pay him 12 million next year and let fuller walk away. 

but either way, Fuller is probably gonna want an insane amount of money, and while cooks might be overpaid, hes under value for 1,000 yard guys. 

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Watson is unofficially number 2 in the league in passing yards now. I say unofficially because Dak is still ahead of him, so he’s technically 3rd but since he’s out that won’t hold. I want him to get that passing title!

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If the Texans were currently 5-1 or 4-2, Watson would be in the MVP talk. (or maybe not, cus billy o would be hc/gm)

2nd in the league in passing yards as Pastor previously noted, leads the league in downfield attempts with a shocking 27 attempts for more than 20 yards, only one that is close is Dak who is another player that we would be calling a MVP candidate if he wasn't injured + his team had a better record, he's also a league-best with 8.93 yards per attempt, last four games its been 9.0. He has never been able to do that before even in 2017. He's also been on fire since that dumpster fire of a Ravens game, 11 TD's - 3 INTs, the best four game stretch of his career + since losing BoB, hes been averaging fourty more yards a game.

Houston Chronicle pointed out he's currently on 2017 pace. The team hasn't had three consecutive games with an offense this productive since then, the Texans have struggled to even go back to back scoring 30 points, going 16 in a row.

We already cut off a cancerous tumor when we got rid of Bill, now its time to reshape this defense somehow. It's clearly the reason we're losing.

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Watson is number 2 in the league. He’s gonna fall behind for a while because of the bye week but he’s on pace for a franchise record in yards and TDs. He is also right at 70% completion and a 3 to 1 TD:Int ratio. That helps recruiting. 
 

the way we are picking WRs each week, has 3 guys on pace for big seasons. 
 

Fuller on pacer for 1100
cooks on pace for 950
cobb on pace for 850 

man I’d love to abandon the run over the last 9 games and get 3 1,000 yard WR and get Watson 5,000 passing yards. 
 

I’d like to see him make the pro bowl but that’s virtually out of the picture since we aren’t making the playoffs and the pro bowl is just an award and guys won’t be dropping out. 

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QB rating when throwing to the guy Phillip Gaines is covering: 158.3

Yes. QBs have a perfect rating when targeting Gaines.

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I want to see watson lead the league in passing yards and I want to see both Fuller and cooks post 1,000 yard seasons but I wonder if that will increase fullers value. 
 

im gonna stay on record wanting to keep our cooks/Fuller duo at WR moving forward. 

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1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said:

im gonna stay on record wanting to keep our cooks/Fuller duo at WR moving forward. 

I'm warming up to this idea, contingent on how much both will cost. If we could bring Cooks down to $8-10mm and then sign Fuller to a $10-11mm deal, it would be ideal.

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Will Fuller is increasing his value - with his TD today, he's scored in six straight games, a Texans franchise record.

If you think about some of the guys we've had - Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Arian Foster - that's a pretty impressive accomplishment.

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Watson has now gone 3 straight without an int, hes at 17-5 ratio on the season, which is really good

Watson is on pace for 4,752 yards and 34 TDs

Looking at our WRs and we have a real possibility of getting two 1,000 yard WRs this year. 

Fuller is now sitting at 36 catches 590 yards 6 TDs, a pace of 72 catches, 1,180 yards and 12 TDs
Cooks i now sitting at 37 catches 510 yards 3 TDs, a pace of 74 catches, 1,020 yards 6 TDs
 

 

Also Watt got his 100th sack of his career today. I really hope we can trade him this off season for a decent haul. Clearing his cap would really help us, and as much loved as he is in Houston, Hes just not the player he once was, and he's not worth the money. We are most likely going to be a bottom 5 NFL defense next year as well, so no need to keep him around for that. 

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It’s interesting that PFF and the eye test don’t line up on Lonnie Johnson. Last year I believe he had a 39.1 rating 

this season he’s sitting at 62.2 which is a huge improvement. The eye test says that he just as bad as he ever was. 
 

the thing with the eye test though, is it’s hard to tell by watching a game on TV who it is that has messed up. Sometimes you can see a CB getting beat for a long pass and you just assume they are to blame when in reality they could be making a great TD saving play after someone else screwed up. Really only the coaching staff knows whether a guy is sucking or not. Of course sometimes it’s obvious. 

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2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

Of course sometimes it’s obvious. 

For example, that Chark TD last week. That was Cover 3, and Vernon Hargreaves was playing press - it was an incredibly stupid play by Hargreaves, Johnson flashing in late to try to stop the play was because of a stupid decision made away from his assignment.

I'm not fully sold on Johnson at FS, and I'd like to see Johnson in box and Reid on the roof for a change - but I'm willing to give it another season, on a short leash.

Physically, Johnson is exactly what you want in a S...

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