Buy Low / Sell High / Hold guys

[titanrick]

Looking for input on who you guys are looking to buy and sell now that we have stats in the book.

I'm worried about Chris Carson, who had fewer carries than Carlos Hyde in a game they pretty much led throughout.  I don't see him catching TDs all year and I think he's a perfect Sell High candidate.

I'm also selling high on Cam Newton.  I don't think they have the weapons for him to put up good numbers week in and week out.

As for a Buy Low guy, with Hines' big day yesterday, this might be the last chance you have to get Taylor at a reasonable cost. I think Indy realizes he's their meal ticket this year behind that OLine but one could also argue they'll be playing from behind a lot which would hurt his value.  I just think Frank Reich figures it out and they compete this year.

Edited September 15, 2020 by titanrick

[Forge]

1 hour ago, titanrick said:

Looking for input on who you guys are looking to buy and sell now that we have stats in the book.

I'm worried about Chris Carson, who had fewer carries than Carlos Hyde in a game they pretty much led throughout.  I don't see him catching TDs all year and I think he's a perfect Sell High candidate.

I'm also selling high on Cam Newton.  I don't think they have the weapons for him to put up good numbers week in and week out.

As for a Buy Low guy, with Hines' big day yesterday, this might be the last chance you have to get Taylor at a reasonable cost. I think Indy realizes he's their meal ticket this year behind that OLine but one could also argue they'll be playing from behind a lot which would hurt his value.  I just think Frank Reich figures it out and they compete this year.

You should edit this to include a "hold " category, tbh. That's what I have done in previous years. Sometimes, it does make sense to just hold. Like, I'm not selling high on Calvin Ridley following that monster game, because I have been bullish on him all off season. So for me, if you have him, I keep him for now. See where it levels out. 

As for your recommendations: 

Chris Carson - I mostly agree there. If you ca flip him for a more promising running back, I think that makes a ton of sense. He's not a great receiver, won't get you two TD receptions week in and week out, and he's prone to injury. Not sure what kind of upgrade you can get this early, but I'd target someone who was largely meh in week 1. If you can flip Carson for Drake, for example, I'm in on that all day. 

Cam Newton - this actually depends on your league settings for me (and your roster). If it's patd 4 points, payds 1 for 25, I'm keeping him. He ran the ball 15 times yesterday. QBs who run are a cheat code...and likely you got him super late. Value like that is how you win leagues. And he's always had a legit shot of double digit rushing touchdowns. That being said, if you're sitting on like Newton and Mahomes, I could see testing the market out and selling high on him for sure. 

I'll post some of my own in a bit. 

[Forge]

Week one is always kind of hard to get a true buy low on because people aren't ready to cash in high picks at 80 cents on the dollar, but if you want to take a stab at it: 

You may have to wait a couple of weeks for that high ankle sprain to really kick in and screw someone's season, but if you have a deep roster, I think you can make a play on Michael Thomas. Maybe "buy low" isn't the most accurate way to state it, but I think people would be more willing to take a quantity for quality approach, if you know what I mean. 

If the person who drafted Joe Mixon didn't love the selection to start with because of his struggles last year, great opportunity to get him after a very meh performance yesterday. He was mostly a mid - late second round pick in the drafts I saw, so people won't have the first round attachment to him. He's risky though, that's not a good team. You're banking on volume to make up for possible inefficiency. 

Austin Ekeler got a ton of volume on the ground, and even though Taylor isn't known for using his running backs a ton, I'm pretty sure, he has a long history of checking down. While this will favor Hunter Henry the most, I have to believe that Ekeler will get more involved in the passing game as we move forward. The lack of passing game work was a common concern regarding him for his draft status going into the season, so you may be able to prey on that if someone had the concern. 

In two quarterback leagues, I do believe that Jared Goff likely just had one of his worst fantasy days for the year. He's worth a guy to target if you're holding someone like Jimmy G or something. 

Guys I would NOT buy low on: 

OBJ I'm just out on. Checked out, I have no faith in Baker whatsoever. The buy low would have to be low. I wouldn't give up a number of guys who were drafted after him up in a straight up trade right now (IE, I wouldn't trade Robert Woods straight up for Beckham right now). 

Pretty much the entire lions backfield. Yeah, that's just going to be a mess all year I feel like. I wasn't big on Swift going into the year, I think second day running backs are typically a bad investment but there's too much going on there without an offense that is elite. They are all basically rosterable and never startable until someone gets hurt. 

 

[BayRaider]

Got offered Kittle for Allen Robinson and TJ Hockenson. Seems like a no brainer to me? I was originally targeting Kittle in the 2nd but he went 15th overall. Got ARob in the 4th (which was a steal!). 
 

Edit: Ahhh he canceled it! 

Edited September 15, 2020 by BayRaider

[Forge]

39 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Got offered Kittle for Allen Robinson and TJ Hockenson. Seems like a no brainer to me? I was originally targeting Kittle in the 2nd but he went 15th overall. Got ARob in the 4th (which was a steal!). 
 

Edit: Ahhh he canceled it! 

I think you would want to see what the deal is on Kittles injury is but if it comes up again, I think yes, you take it

[Pool]

Hold-James Robinson

Sell-Aaron Rodgers

Buy low-Mixon

Drop-James Conner,Leveon Bell

[HvacRaider]

Hold. Try to buy low. 

  M Brown RB Rams. If he becomes the touch leader then you have the steal RB that wins the championships

[BayRaider]

Buy low on Chubb?

[Forge]

On 9/14/2020 at 9:22 PM, BayRaider said:

Buy low on Chubb?

Very tricky. I think that's a legit timeshare, tbh. I feel like I'd rather try to buy hunt at a slightly lower cost. 

[Forge]

Kind of feeling like I should be selling any shares of Drake at this point if I can get close to 100% value. Tough to gauge given the first two opponents and their defense, but 100% do not love his usage in the passing game at all and he's been quite inefficient on the ground. 

[squire12]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Kind of feeling like I should be selling any shares of Drake at this point if I can get close to 100% value. Tough to gauge given the first two opponents and their defense, but 100% do not love his usage in the passing game at all and he's been quite inefficient on the ground. 

there are a lot of RB that are in similar situations.   Game script and the RBBC going with the hot hand

[Forge]

Just now, squire12 said:

there are a lot of RB that are in similar situations.   Game script and the RBBC going with the hot hand

Yeah, it's snowing. Wondering if I should do that with Cook as well. He's putting up points, but hell it's ugly

[squire12]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Yeah, it's snowing. Wondering if I should do that with Cook as well. He's putting up points, but hell it's ugly

RB is so frustrating to navigate.  Outside of a few, it is feels like a crap shoot weekly.  

Week 2 for BALT:

Ingram 9 carries
Edwards 10 carries
Dobbins 2 carries
Lamar with 16 carries (not sure how many of those were read option or scrambles)

 

MIN might not be good this season.  There D is missing a lot and Diggs is a lot to replace.  

[Dr LBC]

DJ Moore is a prime Buy Low candidate.  He and Robby Anderson are seeing 54% of the targets for Carolina (and that was with CMC healthy for 5 quarters).  He's rising in xPPR.  And he's set to draw Casey Heyward this upcoming week - which may make his owner unsure about trotting him out when he's been below what expected in Week 1-2.  I don't know that I'd want to bank on him as more than a mid/low WR2 against the Chargers, but rest of season in a likely-to-be-constantly-chasing offense, with touches standing to increase at least over the next 4-6 weeks, there's a lot to like.

[keysersoze3421]

Sell - Cam Newton, Josh Allen, or any other later-round, high-performing QB.  This assumes the price is right.  I like the idea of moving one for some help at WR and RB, especially given the rash of injuries.  You likely drafted them relatively late and can probably throw in a Minshew or Tannehill off waivers, both of whom will give you respectable production.

If you can get a decent return for Joe Mixon, I would pull the trigger.  Besides only playing 54% of the team's offensive snaps (16th among RBs) through two weeks, the Cincinnati line looks abysmal.  You might still be able to sell Mixon on his draft value and the fact that he isn't injured.  

 

Buy - If you're sitting at 2-0, and an 0-2 owner has Michael Thomas or Christian McCaffrey, throw out a feeler offer.  If you can get Josh Robinson for a decent price, do it.  The Jaguars' offense looks revitalized, and Robinson is 8th in snap percentage through two weeks among RBs.  He figures to continue his bellcow status even when Ryquell Armstead returns.

 

Hold - I think Nyheim Hines's production and snap count were heavily affected by the game script.  Rivers uses his RBs on drop-offs a ton, and there is ample precedence for that.  I would play Hines in games in which the Colts figure to be trailing.  I would also continue to hold Zach Ertz just because of the nature of the position and the possibility of a trade.