Trade Rumors and Discussion

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, ravishingone said:

Why would the Texans sell cheap, this is an unprecedented potential trade when we consider the QBs age and resume.  Elway and Eli Manning trades were for rookies.

Stafford is 32 with less playoff wins then Watson.  Non Qbs have gone for 2 1st rds, so an in prime QB has to have significant value.  Essentially any team acquiring Watson has solved their QB position for a decade with his 2nd contract negotiated and already with 29 million already paid.  I consider that a  lot of value.  

I'm not sure it's selling him "cheap".  There's also the point of not robbing your franchise blind in order to get a franchise QB.  What exactly are the Panthers left with if they trade their 2 best DL on top of 3 FRPs?  They're back to rebuilding the DL, and they're stuck with no FRPs over the next 3 years.  That's hardly a recipe for success and probably ends up being a similar situation to what he currently has in Houston minus the FO issues.

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Does Bradley Chubb have that much value?  I feel like his trade value has gone down since the Broncos drafted him.

For some reason, he still does.   The bulk numbers are shiny.   But a more nuanced analysis says we'd be happy to part with him before he becomes pricey.   Teams looking for young players on rookie contracts should value guys like Burns or Brown higher than Chubb.  

He is a very spiritual Christian, though.  That's a matter of record.  And it is Houston's FO we're talking about.    And yes, I'm being serious here - it's Easterby.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[iknowcool]

2 minutes ago, ravishingone said:

Why would the Texans sell cheap, this is an unprecedented potential trade when we consider the QBs age and resume.  Elway and Eli Manning trades were for rookies.

Stafford is 32 with less playoff wins then Watson.  Non Qbs have gone for 2 1st rds, so an in prime QB has to have significant value.  Essentially any team acquiring Watson has solved their QB position for a decade with his 2nd contract negotiated and already with 29 million already paid.  I consider that a  lot of value.  

And if that is the position they hold, then fair enough.  I am just not sure what teams out there are going to be willing to offer the equivalent of 3 1st round picks, Derrick Brown, and Brian Burns, and that be the floor of a trade.

QBs are important.  Very important.  But there is also so much teams are gonna be willing to trade.  And 3 1st round picks, on top of possible 3rd and 4th round picks, and 2 defensive cornerstones is just too much for my team personally.

I mean what does the Dolphins best most reasonable offer look like?  They have their 2021 1sts and 2022 1st.  Throw in Tua.  And some 2nds.  But even that I wouldn't consider the same as the one you proposed for us, unless you really, really like Tua (which tbh I'm not sure I really do).  

[ravishingone]

2 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

And if that is the position they hold, then fair enough.  I am just not sure what teams out there are going to be willing to offer the equivalent of 3 1st round picks, Derrick Brown, and Brian Burns, and that be the floor of a trade.

QBs are important.  Very important.  But there is also so much teams are gonna be willing to trade.  And 3 1st round picks, on top of possible 3rd and 4th round picks, and 2 defensive cornerstones is just too much for my team personally.

I mean what does the Dolphins best most reasonable offer look like?  They have their 2021 1sts and 2022 1st.  Throw in Tua.  And some 2nds.  But even that I wouldn't consider the same as the one you proposed for us, unless you really, really like Tua (which tbh I'm not sure I really do).  

I have no issue with walking away from the poker table. The Texans are in no mandate to get this done anytime soon.  Watson can sit out the entire yr and his value won t go down.  Sean Gilbert as a DT got traded for 2 1st rds after sitting out a yr.  If the cap goes up significantly next season with the new TV deals in theory there would be more available bidders then this yr with the reduced cap.  

 

[Broncofan]

One notion I think that the Stafford & Wentz trades have demonstrated - teams aren't likely going to be getting QB's who are either difference-makers or have that ceiling without giving up more draft value (or rookie contract player value) than they'd like to pay in a vacuum.  

For all the talk that Houston doesn't have all the leverage - Watson's camp isn't going to narrow the list to only 1-2 teams.   And they aren't likely to only accept it to 1 bidder later on, unless Houston's FO is dumb enough to let this situation play out past the draft (at which point 3-4 teams who would be interested will be automatically eliminated, and a bunch of teams lost a lot of the certainty in their draft equity offer to bid competitively). 

In the end, it comes down to if there's competition among the teams Watson is willing to play for.   The best reports (which should be taken with a grain of salt) say DEN & SF are in, NYJ is out.  MIA/CAR are unknown, as all other teams.  MIA/CAR/DEN have the highest draft equity.   

The idea that teams should just say "I'll offer 2 1sts and player X, take it or leave it" - only works in a vacuum, when there are no other serious bidders.   That's what happens at the trade deadline, because the next day, the deal can't get done.  That's not what's happening here - at least not until the Draft happens.     

There's a ton of moving parts with Houston's FO posturing, and Watson's no-trade clause, they both have leverage.   But the teams with the least leverage right now are the buyers, at least until the buyer pool dwindles.   Now, Houston's FO could still misplay this horribly - I mean, they've done it before, and while Caserian is now the GM, Easterby & McNair are calling the shots, so anything is possible.   The simple Q buyers will have to ask - what bid are they willing to beat?   I think the floor of 2 1sts, 2 2nds (and 1 of those 1sts being a top 10 pick) and 1-2 rookie deal impact players is almost a given.   The Q is how much teams want to go over that to be the winner.  For a guy with Watson's top 6 level talent, him being 25, man, I have to say, I'd have no trouble meeting that price.  The question IMO is more will it be enough.

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[iknowcool]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 I think the floor of 2 1sts, 2 2nds (and 1 of those 1sts being a top 10 pick) and 1-2 rookie deal impact players is almost a given.   The Q is how much teams want to go over that to be the winner.  For a guy with Watson's top 6 level talent, him being 25, man, I have to say, I'd have no trouble meeting that price.  The question IMO is more will it be enough.

Teddy Bridgewater

Brian Burns (or Derrick Brown... LIS, no way though we are giving up both unless you remove picks, including the 3rd 1st)

Jeremy Chinn (or Yetur Gross-Matos.. preferably Chinn in this scenario so we aren't giving up both edge rushers unless the Texans take Brown/Gross-Matos or Brown/Chinn, but not sure why you don't go Burns over Brown unless you want that additional year of Brown's rookie contract)

2021 1st round pick (#8 overall)

2021 2nd round pick

2021 4th round pick

2022 1st round pick

2022 2nd round pick

2022 5th round pick

2023 1st round pick

I think that is the highest I would go and hopefully the Panthers would agree.  You get two very young talented players on rookie contracts.  Burns is entering his 3rd year and has a 5th-year option, while Chinn is entering his 2nd.  You get 3 1st-round picks, including a top 10 pick.  And 2 2nds and a couple of mid-round picks.

Defense takes the biggest hit in this scenario for us, obviously.  Brown or Burns would be far and away our best defensive player.  Best DB would be on the last year of his deal (Donte Jackson, who I considered throwing in), although Troy Pride showed a lot of potential and Elder was solid in the slot.  But adding Watson to this offense would, ideally, make up for it.  

But I don't see the Texans getting that much better of a deal than that.  Not that teams don't have more assets than us, but LIS there is only so much a team will ever wanna give up.  And 3 1st-round picks and 2 young good players will probably be about the max, give or take.  We'll see though this is an unprecedented situation, if the trade happens especially

Edited February 18, 2021 by iknowcool

[soflbillsfan]

Does the trade of Wentz impact Darnold's Market or no? To me Wentz move has zero impact if Houston ever decides to part ways with Watson but I was curious if this impacts Darnold if the Jets decide to move on from him and draft Wilson or Fields.

[soflbillsfan]

Just now, iknowcool said:

Teddy Bridgewater

Brian Burns (or Derrick Brown... LIS, no way though we are giving up both unless you remove picks, including the 3rd 1st)

Jeremy Chinn (or Yetur Gross-Matos.. preferably Chinn in this scenario so we aren't giving up both edge rushers)

2021 1st round pick (#8 overall)

2021 2nd round pick

2021 4th round pick

2022 1st round pick

2022 2nd round pick

2022 5th round pick

2023 1st round pick

I think that is the highest I would go and hopefully the Panthers would agree.  You get two very young talented players on rookie contracts.  Burns is entering his 3rd year and has a 5th-year option, while Chinn is entering his 2nd.  You get 3 1st-round picks, including a top 10 pick.  And 2 2nds and a couple of mid-round picks.

Defense takes the biggest hit in this scenario for us, obviously.  Brown or Burns would be far and away our best defensive player.  Best DB would be on the last year of his deal (Donte Jackson, who I considered throwing in), although Troy Pride showed a lot of potential and Elder was solid in the slot.  But adding Watson to this offense would, ideally, make up for it.  

But I don't see the Texans getting that much better of a deal than that.  Not that teams don't have more assets than us, but LIS there is only so much a team will ever wanna give up.  And 3 1st-round picks and 2 young good players will probably be about the max, give or take.  We'll see though this is an unprecedented situation, if the trade happens especially

I am one who is not a fan of Texans moving Watson but if this was offered you have to say yes to this but why would carolina want to give up that much? You going to be able to compete by giving up that much with key young pieces like Burns and Chinn?

[iknowcool]

4 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

I am one who is not a fan of Texans moving Watson but if this was offered you have to say yes to this but why would carolina want to give up that much? You going to be able to compete by giving up that much with key young pieces like Burns and Chinn?

Yeah it is a tough decision. You’re giving up a lot but you are getting a 100% guaranteed hard-working stud QB. One of those guys who probably won’t ever have a “bad” year ala Russ/Rodgers/Brees/etc.

I’d say it is worth it but I also have a lot of trust in Matt Rhule & how good our offense would be. If I wasn’t a fan of our coaches or offensive cast (especially keeping CMC) then I would pass.

[Broncofan]

23 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Does the trade of Wentz impact Darnold's Market or no? To me Wentz move has zero impact if Houston ever decides to part ways with Watson but I was curious if this impacts Darnold if the Jets decide to move on from him and draft Wilson or Fields.

It takes away 1 more buyer (although realistically Indy probably wasn't willing to be patient enough to go there).   Darnold hasn't had a season like Wentz did in 2017, or had a stretch run of comeback wins like Wentz did in 2019.    He's got a high ceiling, but an even lower floor.   A 2nd round pick would seem like a reach (which in this market, means that I think that's as high as it gets).

I doubt it would be a conditional pick with the similar terms as Wentz, though, given Darnold's unlikely going to a contender (unless he's being groomed to take over), so play/outcome based escalators are unlikely to be applied.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[soflbillsfan]

17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It takes away 1 more buyer (although realistically Indy probably wasn't willing to be patient enough to go there).   Darnold hasn't had a season like Wentz did in 2017, or had a stretch run of comeback wins like Wentz did in 2019.    He's got a high ceiling, but an even lower floor.   A 2nd round pick would seem like a reach (which in this market, means that I think that's as high as it gets).

I doubt it would be a conditional pick with the similar terms as Wentz, though, given Darnold's unlikely going to a contender (unless he's being groomed to take over), so play/outcome based escalators are unlikely to be applied.

The difference between Wentz and Darnold though is Darnold is still on his rookie deal in which teams have the ability to see at least 1 year if not 2 (depending on the timing of the ability to get the 5th year option locked in) before having to pay him. Where Wentz is going to cost the Colts 25 mil each year for the next 4 years, or a 1 year 25 mil this year with the ability to cut him next year at no cost while Darnold will cost a team 4.7 mil in a year where the cap is projected to be at 180 mil then he is free to sign somewhere else or they can extend him. Maybe the conditional pick is determined on whether or not he is on the roster of a team next year that traded for him can go to a 1st or 2nd if hes not on the team it cost them a 3rd. I think a cap strapped team like the Bears may want to pursue him and battle it out against Foles or niners to battle it out against Jimmy G

Edited February 18, 2021 by soflbillsfan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

The difference between Wentz and Darnold though is Darnold is still on his rookie deal in which teams have the ability to see at least 1 year if not 2 (depending on the timing of the ability to get the 5th year option locked in) before having to pay him. Where Wentz is going to cost the Colts 25 mil each year for the next 4 years, or a 1 year 25 mil this year with the ability to cut him next year at no cost while Darnold will cost a team 4.7 mil in a year where the cap is projected to be at 180 mil then he is free to sign somewhere else or they can extend him. Maybe the conditional pick is determined on whether or not he is on the roster of a team next year that traded for him can go to a 1st or 2nd if hes not on the team it cost them a 3rd. I think a cap strapped team like the Bears may want to pursue him and battle it out against Foles or niners to battle it out against Jimmy G

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30170065/could-browns-jets-move-baker-mayfield-sam-darnold-fifth-year-option-deadline-looms

With the new CBA teams have to commit to a FULLY guaranteed 25M (that's the QB number for 2022) for the 5th year when they take the option (March of this year), it's no longer guaranteed only for injury - teams are now locked in (see story above which confirms all the numbers and new full guarantee once the 5th year option is taken).  This is new for this year, BTW (last year, teams could take the option and still be only guaranteed for injury). 
 

This new change to the 5th year option is a huge devaluation to Darnold's potential risk/reward profile - the team can't walk away from the 25M+ 2022 commitment.   So if he's not the answer, they're still on the hook for 2 years.  It's basically a 2 year, 30M commitment for any team that trades for him, and (new for this class, but the way it goes from now on) - it's fully guaranteed.

Wentz's contract, in contrast - is only guaranteed for this year, and 15M of the 25M for next year.    It's basically a 2/47M deal (although they could eat 15M and save 10M next year if he's a total disaster, so say 2/37M guaranteed worst-case with horrendous play).   2023 & 2024 are completely non-guaranteed $.   The Colts can walk away with zero cap hit.

So they're both 2-year deals guaranteed-money wise.    Given one guy's had success at an elite level and a hot 2H to get his team to the playoffs in another season, the 7M difference in guaranteed money (if Wentz is just plain awful) doesn't really bridge that gap to make them appear like similar values.    IMO even a  2021 2nd straight up is a reach - but given the market is seller-friendly, a 2nd may be what they get.    The fact teams are locking into 2 years and 30M if they are acquiring Darnold is more likely to suppress the return, though.  It's hard to see it as a positive, given the risk.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[Mastercheddaar]

58 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Teddy Bridgewater

Brian Burns (or Derrick Brown... LIS, no way though we are giving up both unless you remove picks, including the 3rd 1st)

Jeremy Chinn (or Yetur Gross-Matos.. preferably Chinn in this scenario so we aren't giving up both edge rushers unless the Texans take Brown/Gross-Matos or Brown/Chinn, but not sure why you don't go Burns over Brown unless you want that additional year of Brown's rookie contract)

2021 1st round pick (#8 overall)

2021 2nd round pick

2021 4th round pick

2022 1st round pick

2022 2nd round pick

2022 5th round pick

2023 1st round pick

I think that is the highest I would go and hopefully the Panthers would agree.  You get two very young talented players on rookie contracts.  Burns is entering his 3rd year and has a 5th-year option, while Chinn is entering his 2nd.  You get 3 1st-round picks, including a top 10 pick.  And 2 2nds and a couple of mid-round picks.

Defense takes the biggest hit in this scenario for us, obviously.  Brown or Burns would be far and away our best defensive player.  Best DB would be on the last year of his deal (Donte Jackson, who I considered throwing in), although Troy Pride showed a lot of potential and Elder was solid in the slot.  But adding Watson to this offense would, ideally, make up for it.  

But I don't see the Texans getting that much better of a deal than that.  Not that teams don't have more assets than us, but LIS there is only so much a team will ever wanna give up.  And 3 1st-round picks and 2 young good players will probably be about the max, give or take.  We'll see though this is an unprecedented situation, if the trade happens especially

I understand Watson is a very good QB but... 3 1sts, 2 2nds, a 4th and a 5th thrown in for S and Giggles plus 3 players?!?!?! 

[Blackstar12]

The AFC south has defense? 😂 

[49ersfan]

https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/2/18/22289364/schefter-predicts-jimmy-garoppolo-will-be-the-49ers-starter-in-2021

FWIW - Adam Schefter predicts Watson will be the Panthers starting QB 

Other predictions - Justin Fields to the Texans (presumably using the Panthers 1st they would trade for Watson), Wilson to the Jets, Mariota to the Pats, and Darnold to the Bears