ronjon1990 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, BowlesDawgDX said: Could, let's just say, Washington make it happen for 19 + 114 for Darnold and 23? That's roughly pick 61 Darnold ranks just about with Wentz for me, just without ever actually proving he's particularly good. If the Jets get anywhere near that type of deal, they'll make Detroit look like amateurs. At this point I'd be telling the Jets "I'll give you a 3rd and save you from the potential embarrassment of a top 5 pick at QB not being able to beat out the multi year starter and impending QB controversy. Take it or enjoy watching Woody and Buzz go at it while you attempt to rebuild." When a team has a recent history of dysfunction like the Jets, it loses bargaining power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 35 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Yeah I agree with point. If this was like the 6th vs 10th pick, that might be different, but not really this low in the 1st imo. Yeah, in that situation you're getting either a QB or an EDGE-type guy, or a D-leader (LT would be the other example, but not with Becton). Impact position or generational-talent guys, anyone would consider moving up. On the other hand, if the Jets don't have that guy at the spot they're drafting, they're in fact more likely to move down if there's demand. If there's no demand, they just take the BPA, but don't burn draft value on a nonimal upgrade alone. The 23 to 19 moves happen when teams that think they can be contenders are 1 guy away at a need position, and they need a specific guy. That's not the Jets' situation at all. They need help in a lot of spots, the diff between the 23 and 19 guy isn't worth burning value on. Not yet, anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said: At this point I'd be telling the Jets "I'll give you a 3rd and save you from the potential embarrassment of a top 5 pick at QB not being able to beat out the multi year starter and impending QB controversy. Take it or enjoy watching Woody and Buzz go at it while you attempt to rebuild." When a team has a recent history of dysfunction like the Jets, it loses bargaining power. That offer only works if there isn't competition. If there's competition, then it's a matter of beating the best offer. I don't think it's going any higher than a 2nd, and a 3rd might be the best the Jets can do - especially since the 5th year option is now FULLY guaranteed once it's exercised, and for 2022 & Darnold, it's been reported as 25M for 2022. Teams are willing to take on projects with minimal risk and insane upside - when the risk goes up financially, the pick return goes down (and vice-versa). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 The Texans are screwed because you never want an unhappy QB. Its pretty rare and almost never on purpose. It took Jack Easterby in Houston. (This is deliberate by McNair the Lesser valuing Easterby over Watson) It took attempted murder by bad teammates for Wentz. Not the teams fault, injuries happen Dak is not unhappy, he just wants to be paid. The problem with the Texans is this. Deshaun is paid to play QB, not to lead. He can show up and do the bare minimum and then go home 1 day before the season starts. He comes back in week 7 or week 10, whatever the minimum he needs to play. The team goes nowhere, he gets half of his salary or whatever and earns a year less of the contract. He just repeats this for 5 years and the team has zero shot at winning, They might even have a half full stadium by year 2 (Its Texas, so 64% full) They might be able to win a partial signing bonus return but only partial because he's still playing games for them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Broncofan said: That offer only works if there isn't competition. If there's competition, then it's a matter of beating the best offer. I don't think it's going any higher than a 2nd, and a 3rd might be the best the Jets can do - especially since the 5th year option is now FULLY guaranteed once it's exercised, and for 2022 & Darnold, it's been reported as 25M for 2022. Teams are willing to take on projects with minimal risk and insane upside - when the risk goes up financially, the pick return goes down (and vice-versa). You're right. I should've prefaced with "I don't think Darnold is going to have a very robust trade market at the end of the day." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said: You're right. I should've prefaced with "I don't think Darnold is going to have a very robust trade market at the end of the day." Yeah, the change in how the 5th year option works means a team trading for him now assumes a 2 year, 30M guaranteed money hit (since it's doubtful a team wouldn't see it out 2 years if your'e giving up a 3rd). Before, it was a 1 year, sub-5M risk, and if Darnold was awful, they could walk away unless there was a serious injury, as the 2nd year was 20M and only guaranteed for injury. What it means - teams trading for him are likely either going to have to be completely sold to take the risk AND pay a 2nd rounder.....or they're willing to take on the increased financial risk with less certainty, but only at a lower pick price. When looking at acquiring boom-bust guys, the risk assumed always matters. If the money risk is low, the pick price increases. If the money risk is higher, the pick price decreases. But in the end, it only takes 2 teams to be interested, to turn it into a competition. With the change to the 5th year option, though - I don't think we're getting beyond the 2nd, and an early 3rd might be the winner. As you mentioned, Darnold doesn't have a record of NFL success - he's got really good reasons for that (being stuck with Gase year 2-3 when the normal improvements occurs) - but there's still a lot more risk than with Wentz. Which is a pretty incredible thing to say (a QB is both sought after, yet comes with more risk than Wentz presents). Edited February 19, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, SkippyX said: The Texans are screwed because you never want an unhappy QB. Its pretty rare and almost never on purpose. It took Jack Easterby in Houston. (This is deliberate by McNair the Lesser valuing Easterby over Watson) It took attempted murder by bad teammates for Wentz. Not the teams fault, injuries happen Dak is not unhappy, he just wants to be paid. The problem with the Texans is this. Deshaun is paid to play QB, not to lead. He can show up and do the bare minimum and then go home 1 day before the season starts. He comes back in week 7 or week 10, whatever the minimum he needs to play. The team goes nowhere, he gets half of his salary or whatever and earns a year less of the contract. He just repeats this for 5 years and the team has zero shot at winning, They might even have a half full stadium by year 2 (Its Texas, so 64% full) They might be able to win a partial signing bonus return but only partial because he's still playing games for them. I think the longer the Texans keep pretending he'll come back, the uglier it's going to get for them, for sure. There's a few differences in the contract and situations, but it reminds me of Tampa Bay and Jake Plummer. Gruden was convinced he could eventually just come play, but he never did. Truth is, teams already know Watson is pissed and wants out. He could show up and chuck ducks all season until they have to make the choice of cutting him, trading him, or having the 2nd most expensive player in NFL history as a backup. And I guarantee he would still have plenty of suitors lined up. He's got the upper hand and it's not even close. As for Wentz and Prescott, they both screwed themselves more than anything. Wentz's attitude was awful. Without that, my gut tells me he would've been guaranteed a hard reset with a new coach. But he clearly lost the lockeroom as much as Pederson did. Dak could've gotten paid already and balked while wanting money he hadn't proven himself worth yet. He's just a cautionary tale about leaving money on the table and gambling. Not to say players shouldn't negotiate and try to play themselves into a bigger contract, but at some point you've got to realize that chasing $'s is pointless in the NFL and take what is offered before you get hurt or your play drops off. He wanted to be one of like the top 3 or 4 paid QBs, IIRC. That's great, but we all know that would've lasted all of a season or so before whatever he got sank back to 10th or so anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 44 minutes ago, SkippyX said: He can show up and do the bare minimum and then go home 1 day before the season starts. He comes back in week 7 or week 10, whatever the minimum he needs to play. The team goes nowhere, he gets half of his salary or whatever and earns a year less of the contract. He just repeats this for 5 years and the team has zero shot at winning, They might even have a half full stadium by year 2 (Its Texas, so 64% full) I don't disagree in principle - but this isn't in Deshaun Watson. He's finished out games with a torn ACL, he's chartered a bus to Jacksonville when doctors told him he couldn't fly because his lungs were too bruised, he once got kicked in the eye and didn't miss a snap as blood poured from his eye socket... I simply don't see him mailing it in at any point. If he's not traded, he'll play - he may hate the organization, but he loves the other 52 guys on the team and he doesn't quit. (At least he hasn't yet - maybe this is the scenario where you see him break character, you never know). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew39k Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 51 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Yeah, the change in how the 5th year option works means a team trading for him now assumes a 2 year, 30M guaranteed money hit (since it's doubtful a team wouldn't see it out 2 years if your'e giving up a 3rd). Before, it was a 1 year, sub-5M risk, and if Darnold was awful, they could walk away unless there was a serious injury, as the 2nd year was 20M and only guaranteed for injury. What it means - teams trading for him are likely either going to have to be completely sold to take the risk AND pay a 2nd rounder.....or they're willing to take on the increased financial risk with less certainty, but only at a lower pick price. When looking at acquiring boom-bust guys, the risk assumed always matters. If the money risk is low, the pick price increases. If the money risk is higher, the pick price decreases. But in the end, it only takes 2 teams to be interested, to turn it into a competition. With the change to the 5th year option, though - I don't think we're getting beyond the 2nd, and an early 3rd might be the winner. As you mentioned, Darnold doesn't have a record of NFL success - he's got really good reasons for that (being stuck with Gase year 2-3 when the normal improvements occurs) - but there's still a lot more risk than with Wentz. Which is a pretty incredible thing to say (a QB is both sought after, yet comes with more risk than Wentz presents). Id wager that any team trading for Darnold would not pickup the 5th year option and instead negotiate a new three year deal paying him in the 10-15 mil per year. This helps avoid the sort of bit cap hit you are referring to while also ensuring that if Darnold bounces back you have him on a team friendly deal for a short period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, drew39k said: Id wager that any team trading for Darnold would not pickup the 5th year option and instead negotiate a new three year deal paying him in the 10-15 mil per year. This helps avoid the sort of bit cap hit you are referring to while also ensuring that if Darnold bounces back you have him on a team friendly deal for a short period. The deadline to pick up the option is in early May, so that's entirely possible. It's just that there's going to be more risk associated with taking him on regardless. Before this year, you could acquire him, and if he was a complete train wreck year 1, you walk away with 1/5M burnt, and whatever pick you spent. And you could reload into the draft, no opportunity cost either. Now, you're pretty much buying in for more guaranteed money, and most lost years where you don't consider someone else in all likelihood. If you're totally sold that he's going to succeed, none of that matters - but I think we're going to find there aren't that many teams that are sold to that extent - and why the pick return may underwhelm even below a straight 2nd round return. Then again, if 2 teams are left out of the QB carousel and the Fitz/Dalton tier of FA's doesn't appeal...well, you get the idea. It's just the zero-risk acquisition scenario (outside of pick spent) doesn't apply nearly as much anymore. Edited February 19, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I see no problem with the way Wentz handled his situation. He took the high road and went off the grid. Meanwhile, the media was releasing bad report after bad report slinging hri character and name through the mud. He was concerned about his career he now has a chance to revive it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 19 hours ago, SkippyX said: Denver was a 5-10 team with 6 losses by 1 score. That was with Lock (13) Drisklel (1), and Rypien (1) at QB Lets be real about the pathetic game the NFL forced them to play without a QB. This is with their #1 WR playing 31 total snaps in 1 game all year. Sure, but they were also a 5-11 team where 4 of the 5 wins were by one score. The 5th was a 9 point win against the Jets. 4-6 in one score games is not really some outlier or indication that they're better than what their record was. Let's not act like they got super unlucky in last minute losses in close games, or something. Their 5-11 record hit their expected W/L on the dot. They had a bottom 5 scoring O and a bottom 10 scoring D. They had the 4th worst point differential in the league last year. They weren't quite with the bottom feeders like the Jets or Jags, but they were also pretty clearly worse than the Chargers, Raiders, etc., throughout the year. They were a 5-11 team, that looked like a 5-11 team. That's why they got largely got blown out by the good teams, beat the really bad team on their schedule (the Jets), and played close games with most of the other subpar teams on their schedule. Don't get me wrong, Denver has some talent on the offensive side, and Watson would showcase that. But with Lock last year, they were absolutely just a bad, 5-11 caliber, football team. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Jets PFF O-line rankings since Darnold joined the team: 2018 - 25th 2019 - 28th 2020 - 29th Jets top 3 WRs in Darnold's 3 seasons: 2018 - Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse 2019 - Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, The Ghost of Demarius Thomas 2020 - Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Braxton Berrios Jets run game in Darnold's 3 seasons: 2018 - 26th in yards 29th in ypa 2019 - 31st in yards 32nd in ypa 2020 - 23rd in yards 24th in ypa We have no idea if Darnold can play. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Darnold's Jets had 26 rushing TDs in 3 years. He had 5 of those so 21. Stafford's Lions had 35 and none were from Stafford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 1 hour ago, SkippyX said: Jets PFF O-line rankings since Darnold joined the team: 2018 - 25th 2019 - 28th 2020 - 29th Jets top 3 WRs in Darnold's 3 seasons: 2018 - Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse 2019 - Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, The Ghost of Demarius Thomas 2020 - Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Braxton Berrios Jets run game in Darnold's 3 seasons: 2018 - 26th in yards 29th in ypa 2019 - 31st in yards 32nd in ypa 2020 - 23rd in yards 24th in ypa We have no idea if Darnold can play. Then why don't the Jets get him Jamarr Chase or Penei Sewell or something? Why would Zach Wilson do better in the same support system (obviously new hc). He's 23 years old it's not like the age difference is significant. If the answer is get your guy, then why would a team trade for him instead of get their guy? Money or bust into backup mode is on the table for Darnold and the Jets would know him better than any other team. If they'd rather get the other-than-Lawrence QB instead of an elite WR prospect then that's gotta ding his value. I almost feel like Jets keep Darnold and wait for an injury to maximize value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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