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The Raider Depreciation Thread 📉


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12 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Oh, I don't disagree. Sometimes it is worth it if there is a specific guy there or an absence of options if we stand pat. A small trade down IMO is usually beneficial but that's assuming someone wants to trade up of course. 

We've been in position to draft great players without moving quite often recently. Our Me v Mayock threads show it. We just have to do better in the big ticket rounds IMO.

that's true. I just really wanted the trade up of Bosa and Parsons, would have been so worth it. we did pass Devin White and Jaelin Phillips who are studs....

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On 1/12/2022 at 3:24 AM, Darbsk said:

Oh, I don't disagree. Sometimes it is worth it if there is a specific guy there or an absence of options if we stand pat. A small trade down IMO is usually beneficial but that's assuming someone wants to trade up of course. 

We've been in position to draft great players without moving quite often recently. Our Me v Mayock threads show it. We just have to do better in the big ticket rounds IMO.

We've also missed on a ton of guys later in the draft which is a back breaker if you have to start extended your better players.

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On 1/12/2022 at 3:38 PM, Humble_Beast said:

that's true. I just really wanted the trade up of Bosa and Parsons, would have been so worth it. we did pass Devin White and Jaelin Phillips who are studs....

Jaelan Phillips was my man crush during the draft last season.

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On 1/18/2022 at 5:32 AM, NYRaider said:

We've also missed on a ton of guys later in the draft which is a back breaker if you have to start extended your better players.

To be fair, after round 3 it's only something like 20 percent of those players actually make any meaningful contributions league wide, I think someone posted the stats a while ago and it was really surprising. Most round 3 to 7 players never make any impact at all. I think we've done pretty well in the mud to late rounds to be fair.

Edited to add I think it was @Mr Raider who posted the actual stats. 👍

Edited by Darbsk
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8 hours ago, Darbsk said:

To be fair, after round 3 it's only something like 20 percent of those players actually make any meaningful contributions league wide, I think someone posted the stats a while ago and it was really surprising. Most round 3 to 7 players never make any impact at all. I think we've done pretty well in the mud to late rounds to be fair.

Edited to add I think it was @Mr Raider who posted the actual stats. 👍

Most draft picks don't pan out but good teams hit on more mid-round picks than bad teams which is how they're able to sign their star players to mega deals. How many starting caliber players have we even drafted in general over the last few years?

We've made 41 picks since 2017 and only 7 (Miller, Mullen, Renfrow, Crosby, Moehrig, Hobbs, Deablo) look like sure fire starters next season.

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12 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Most draft picks don't pan out but good teams hit on more mid-round picks than bad teams which is how they're able to sign their star players to mega deals. How many starting caliber players have we even drafted in general over the last few years?

We've made 41 picks since 2017 and only 7 (Miller, Mullen, Renfrow, Crosby, Moehrig, Hobbs, Deablo) look like sure fire starters next season.

Dam 7 out of 41 is really bad 

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On 1/20/2022 at 2:48 AM, NYRaider said:

Most draft picks don't pan out but good teams hit on more mid-round picks than bad teams which is how they're able to sign their star players to mega deals. How many starting caliber players have we even drafted in general over the last few years?

We've made 41 picks since 2017 and only 7 (Miller, Mullen, Renfrow, Crosby, Moehrig, Hobbs, Deablo) look like sure fire starters next season.

You're not wrong, however, I think the bigger issue is we have no star players from all the first and second round picks we've recently had. We should have a handful of Pro Bowlers that are the spine of the team. That is the bigger issue to me and where really good teams don't waste valuable capital. I actually think we've been as good or better than most in the 4th round onwards recently.

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2 hours ago, Darbsk said:

You're not wrong, however, I think the bigger issue is we have no star players from all the first and second round picks we've recently had. We should have a handful of Pro Bowlers that are the spine of the team. That is the bigger issue to me and where really good teams don't waste valuable capital. I actually think we've been as good or better than most in the 4th round onwards recently.

I was just about to say there is only 3 players from the 1st two rounds on the list and that is not acceptable.  You could go back to 2016 and that number is 3 out of 14 picks.  It is actually pretty pathetic just going back decades.  

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1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

I was just about to say there is only 3 players from the 1st two rounds on the list and that is not acceptable.  You could go back to 2016 and that number is 3 out of 14 picks.  It is actually pretty pathetic just going back decades.  

Yeh, I think our first rounds in particular have been the biggest problem. You simply can't keep missing on those as that's 5 years of relatively good value production we've been missing out on 

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3 hours ago, Darbsk said:

You're not wrong, however, I think the bigger issue is we have no star players from all the first and second round picks we've recently had. We should have a handful of Pro Bowlers that are the spine of the team. That is the bigger issue to me and where really good teams don't waste valuable capital. I actually think we've been as good or better than most in the 4th round onwards recently.

Exactly. 

If you really look in depth at the success rate from round 4-7 for the NFL as a whole we have been at least average if not outright good in that area. IMO we have done a good enough job in the Mayock/Gruden era in rounds 4-7 to be a team that wins a lot of games. 

The issue is, that is IMO obviously the lowest importance in the equation of what makes a team successful long term. IMO hitting on your first round picks finding a pro bowl or better talent at like a 50-60% ratio and as close as you can get to the other 40-50 percent of the time drafting guys that aren't outright busts that don't contribute positively at all (like a Ferrell, Arnette) is the biggest part of the puzzle. You can find value all throughout the draft, you can even find star/elite players all throughout the draft, however it's still the overwhelming majority of the elite players coming from the first round of the draft, that in combination with the cost controlled benefit of getting elite play at a discount makes it paramount and the biggest factor in long term success IMO.

Next is smart free agent decisions. Overspending because its the nature of the beast on players that aren't giving you play to justify their pay is a lot to overcome. You don't typically find elite players on the free agent market. But if you can find more Yannicks than Littletons it's the second biggest factor. 

The draft from round 4-7 has a shockingly low level of success league wide, you can build a long term winning team with what we have done the past 3 or so years in rounds 4-7. You obviously need to do your best to avoid drafting the Bowden type guys that do nothing, but I actually think when looking at how common it is for guys drafted in that type range to do virtually nothing it was actually a pretty solid job by Mayock to immediately recognize it and get a same range draft pick back immediately for a guy that hasn't done much for the Dolphins either. If we did a better job in round 1 and 2 and had more Jacobs, Ruggs (before his life changing decisione), Moehrig, and even Mullen and were closer to that when we selected Ferrell, Arnette, Leatherwood, etc we would be doing well when adding Renfrow, Crosby, Hobbs, Deablo, etc and didn't have so many free agent blunders we would be so much better off. 

If you look at the actual data in rounds 4-7 it's probably the area we have done closest to better than most teams over the past several years. Unfortunately the type of players that equal success there dont give a level of play high enough outside of the biggest outliers to offset the blunders we have made in the more important areas to long term success of hitting on first and second round picks and making smart free agent decisions.

We could thrive with a Mayock level round 4-7 success level if we can actually start finding an elite player or two and long term building blocks in round 1 and 2 and stop making bad free agent decisions. 

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On 1/23/2022 at 7:02 AM, Darbsk said:

You're not wrong, however, I think the bigger issue is we have no star players from all the first and second round picks we've recently had. We should have a handful of Pro Bowlers that are the spine of the team. That is the bigger issue to me and where really good teams don't waste valuable capital. I actually think we've been as good or better than most in the 4th round onwards recently.

We've also missed on a ton of big FA signings and good teams typically don't spend a ton of money in free agency because most of their cap is tied up when they extend their own guys. Going back to 2010 we've selected 23 players in the 1/2 rounds and only Carr, Mack, Cooper, Miller, and Jacobs have been impact players for us. It's insane to even look at the list of guys we've whiffed on, lol.

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On 1/26/2022 at 12:34 PM, NYRaider said:

We've also missed on a ton of big FA signings and good teams typically don't spend a ton of money in free agency because most of their cap is tied up when they extend their own guys. Going back to 2010 we've selected 23 players in the 1/2 rounds and only Carr, Mack, Cooper, Miller, and Jacobs have been impact players for us. It's insane to even look at the list of guys we've whiffed on, lol.

When I glance at the wikipedia entry of any given draft and you see all those Pro-Bowl shaded players behind our selection it makes me wince. 

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On 1/27/2022 at 5:40 PM, Jraider91 said:

When I glance at the wikipedia entry of any given draft and you see all those Pro-Bowl shaded players behind our selection it makes me wince. 

Yeah, Mayock and Gruden really screwed us, lol.

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3 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

so much wasted draft capital. should be loaded 

Yeah we traded away studs like Cooper, Mack, Hudson, Brown, and Jackson then wasted the draft capital yet we're still in a pretty meh cap situation, it's insane.

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