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Pastor Dillon

Cap Situation moving forward

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We all knew that we had big deals coming for Watson, Tunsil, and Cunningham

but we are really cap strapped now, starting next season, which is before the bulk of Watson's deal kicks in. Currently we are about 10 million over next years cap, which is probably gonna be lower than they are currently saying. Watson only has a 16 million cap number next year. 

So we have to clear 10 million before we even think about resigning or signing guys. 

JJ Watt, we love him, but this is his last year in Houston unless he takes a massive restructuring. He's a 17.5 million hit, with no dead money in the final year of his deal. Perhaps we could get him to sign a 3 year 30 million dollar restructure with say 20 million in guarantees. I am sure he can make more money somewhere, but he is 100% not worth it, unless he really turns things around big time this season. 

Brandin Cooks 12 million is going to come off the board. I honestly dont think we can keep him, which is why a 2nd round pick for a 1 year rental for a number 2 WR is a bad deal. Assuming that Fuller has a very solid year and can stay healthy, I think we are basically going to give him around 12 million per season average cap hit for probably 4 years. 4 years 48 million seems reasonable to me. Diggs got 5/72 million and his cap hit only tops 12.5 million once and is mostly under 12. So at this point, we are still 3 million over the cap with Watt restructured and Cooks released and fuller signed. 

To get us under the cap, we have to do something with David Johnson. I wish we had drafted a young RB at any point the last few seasons. Johnson is owed a cap hit of 9 million next year, but with just 2 million in dead money....the other johnson is owed 5 million and no dead money. I suspect we can only keep one of them with the cuts we are going to have to make. we can cut David, keep Duke, be under the cap with about 4 million to spend on a vet running back.

So this just gets us to even, with most of the big stuff out of the way. 

We are still going to have to do some things moving forward. 

Mckinney has a cap hit of 8.5, and we can save 7 million by cutting him. 8.5 is not a big hit, so if he is startable, I would prefer to keep him around another year. 
Nick Martin has a cap hit of 8.75 but just 2.5 in deal money, so we could get some relief there, but again with no picks, 8.75 for a serviceable center is fine
Kelemete gets cut saving us 5 million
Fulton graded out a lot higher than I thought he should. Hes only a 3.75 cap hit next year, so Hes probably safe unless he becomes dangerous to watsons health
Jacob Martin would be due for an extension if he had a break out year, but I dont see that happening. 

So all that, and we are cap strapped with very few draft picks coming up and this list of guys who will be free agents:
Kenny Stills
Brennen Scarlett
Dylan Cole
Gareon Conley
PJ Hall
Carlos watkins

I would like to keep Hall, Conley, and Cole, but at what cost?

Next year is gonna be a stretch for us. I will make another post looking at the following year, which hopefully will be under new management, as I suspect BOB has this year and next to make the AFC championship. 

 

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looking at 2022

Watson's full extension kicks in and we have some big time pay roll expenses:

Watson - 40 million
Tunsil - 21 million
Cunningham - 13 million
Fuller's extension will be on here as well

The good news is that beyond those 3, we have NOTHING

in fact Tunsil can be cut for a big savings, and so can Cunningham

it is amazing how well set up we are to start completely over in 2022. we still have a lot of guys on contracts, but with virtually no dead money to cut any of them. It could be a complete rebuild with a QB, WR, LT already in the pipeline. 

We will also have our starting C, LG, RT all locked in still, though Scharping and Howard will be looking for extensions about this time. martin will be making 9 million but with only 2 million in dead cap. 

Mercilus will be on the books for 14 million but with just 3 million in dead.
Roby has an 11 million hit but just 1 million dead money
 

We can basically bring in a brand new GM and HC and tell them they have 3 pro bowlers on offense (I assume Fuller will make it if we give him a big extension) and a clean slate on defense. 

The good news is that we don't really have the cap space in 2021 for BOB to go making long term deals with people 

I think he has to have been told that he had 2 seasons to get something accomplished. its set up perfectly for a quick rebuild. 

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2022 is a good year for a "rebuild" I guess. Truth is, the players we'll have in 2022 under contract will be enough to edge by continuously to .500 I believe. 

Billy O really messed up giving some big deals to Cobb and Eric Murray. 

I want a rebuild with a defensive minded coach like Saleh. Our offense is completely fine even if we lose Stills or Cooks, Fuller (if he finally plays 16 this season and next) should finally be hitting his potential and peak and possible two consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. We know hes deadly in the red zone too. Tunsil is a franchise LT, he'll be here a long time I believe, Schraping and Howard are both good enough and will be solid starters by then and I am HOPING that our o-line is clicking and protecting at a high level. If we're rebuilding though, finally our disastrous o-line coach can leave. Ugh.

JJ hopefully should retire as a Texan by then (I am hoping next year... I don't want him to go somewhere else), we could draft a young future pass rusher in 2022 as well, freeing up a ton of cap. I say we free as much cap as possible that Billy O wasted on second class players, if Cobb isn't worth it and cutting him frees, cut him, same with Eric Murray. We need to focus on defense. If we had Deshaun throwing to Dre with Fuller as a #2 when we were a super bowl caliber defense, we'd have our first ring. I honestly believe defense is more important than offense and the fact Bill hasn't really cared about defense all that much and decided to only make his side of the ball game better is really bad for us.

Edited by Drained

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4 hours ago, Drained said:

2022 is a good year for a "rebuild" I guess. Truth is, the players we'll have in 2022 under contract will be enough to edge by continuously to .500 I believe. 

Billy O really messed up giving some big deals to Cobb and Eric Murray. 

I want a rebuild with a defensive minded coach like Saleh. Our offense is completely fine even if we lose Stills or Cooks, Fuller (if he finally plays 16 this season and next) should finally be hitting his potential and peak and possible two consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. We know hes deadly in the red zone too. Tunsil is a franchise LT, he'll be here a long time I believe, Schraping and Howard are both good enough and will be solid starters by then and I am HOPING that our o-line is clicking and protecting at a high level. If we're rebuilding though, finally our disastrous o-line coach can leave. Ugh.

JJ hopefully should retire as a Texan by then (I am hoping next year... I don't want him to go somewhere else), we could draft a young future pass rusher in 2022 as well, freeing up a ton of cap. I say we free as much cap as possible that Billy O wasted on second class players, if Cobb isn't worth it and cutting him frees, cut him, same with Eric Murray. We need to focus on defense. If we had Deshaun throwing to Dre with Fuller as a #2 when we were a super bowl caliber defense, we'd have our first ring. I honestly believe defense is more important than offense and the fact Bill hasn't really cared about defense all that much and decided to only make his side of the ball game better is really bad for us.

i think Murray is fine. He was decent enough in week 1 that i am not mad about his contract. its not like we had other options. 

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Fuller is officially in the “better sign for cheap or we let him walk” category for next year. 
 

JJ Watts performance yesterday puts him in position to have a year where he makes himself a nice paycheck this off season. 

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This topic is more real and relevant than ever before. There are a lot of potential changes, but the following is a list of guys who will be on our roster next year:

Tunsil 19.4 million
Watson 15.9 million
Mercilus 12 million
Cunningham 11.4 million 
Roby 11 million
Cobb 10.6 million
Murray 6.7 million
 

Those are the only guys that we will take a big hit in order to cut. The following are guys and their savings:

Watt 17 million
Cooks 12 million
David Johnson 7 million
Nick Martin 6 million
Duke Johnson 5 million
Dunn 3 million
Fulton 3 million
 

Those are the roster moves we have available. We simply can't bring back JJ Watt because of the cap crunch. Same thing with David Johnson. We have to cut him and save the 7 million. Cooks has to be on his way out without a doubt as well. Fulton and Dunn are both probably worth 3 million. Duke Johnson is worth 5 million

we are going to need to draft really smart next year because we will have lots of needs, but I think a 3rd round running back will be a need. 

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Posted (edited)

Really looking like a sunk cost situation. We'll just have to accept the trades were bad, cut Cooks, let DJ walk, let Stills walk. Hopefully the new FO can get some good restructures.

Edited by Drained
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Because of the cap situation, I think we should look to trade either Stills or Cooks mid season. Maybe get a 4th or 5th for cooks and a 6th for Stills. Heck trade them both. 
 

Our cap problems mean we need to see if there is anyway to develop Coutee, Carter, Coulter to be a valuable player next year. Cobb and hopefully a resigned Will Fuller will be the top 2 options but we need options 3 and 4 to be cheap. 
 

we saw such huge promise in Coutee but he just couldn’t play under BOB for some reason.  We need to give him time. 
 

same with Blacklock, Greenard, and Reid. 
 

at this point I wouldn’t even mind giving heck some snaps at RT and moving Howard in to guard. Lots of players have been drafted at Tackles and struggled badly, only to move to guard a few years later and be really good. 

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There's enough moves we can make to get back down and keep JJ. It would make sense for both of us to extend him and help get that cap number down in return for guaranteed years. It'll leave talent a bit depleted for 2021, but it clears up in 2022. Obviously, try to trade who you can now, but if you can't get anything back, cut them in the off-season. I could see us getting potentially a 4th or 5th for Cooks and McKinney, but not too many others. Here are some cuts that would clear up some space.

Brandin Cooks - $12 million

Benardrick McKinney - $7 million

David Johnson - $6.9 million

Senio Kelemete - $5.5 million

Duke Johnson - $5.15 million

Brandon Dunn - $3.25 million

Zach Fulton - $3 million

Darren Fells - $2.3 million

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