Notable Stats and Observations

[AlexGreen#20]

On 1/23/2020 at 6:04 PM, Shanedorf said:

In this article from OverTheCap, they are making the argument that going for 2 is almost always better than kicking the PAT

I'm not bright enough to fully understand the stats around this, so I was hoping that some of you can shed some light on it
The part I am confused by is that they look at PAT success rate of 94 % chance of getting 1 pt and suggest that you're actually better off to have a 49 % chance of getting 2 pts

Where I struggle is how do you account for the fact that you either get 2 or 0 if you come up short, vs a 94 % chance of getting 1pt with the PAT ?

https://overthecap.com/two-point-conversions-look-into-it/

Here's the Expected Points Added data
"Over the course of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, kickers combined to make 94.1% of extra point attempts,
meaning the Expected Points Added (EPA) for that play is 0.941 "

During those same two seasons, the NFL’s two-point conversion rate was 49.4%, which is an EPA of 0.988 "

So in my thinking, you have a greater than 50% chance of getting no points at all. So the only way to make it work is to go for 2 on every TD
Over the course of an entire season, these numbers average out - but in a single instance, I'm not sure it makes as much sense as they claim

You assume over a large enough sample size that the data will carry out for the more expected points.

94.1% of successfully converting the PAT  X   1 Point if attempt is successful = .941 average points per PAT attempt.

49.4% of successfully converting the 2PT  X  2 Points if attempt is successful = .988 average points per 2PT attempt.

However it's such a small difference that it doesn't matter. 

Over 10 attempts, you would score less than half of a point more. You would need 24 attempts to make a single point of difference. Essentially the greatest offense of all time would get less than a FGs worth of points out of this change over a full season. 

At some point, the predictability from a game planning perspective is more valuable than a tiny amount of points. 

[wackywabbit]

2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

You assume over a large enough sample size that the data will carry out for the more expected points.

94.1% of successfully converting the PAT  X   1 Point if attempt is successful = .941 average points per PAT attempt.

49.4% of successfully converting the 2PT  X  2 Points if attempt is successful = .988 average points per 2PT attempt.

However it's such a small difference that it doesn't matter. 

Over 10 attempts, you would score less than half of a point more. You would need 24 attempts to make a single point of difference. Essentially the greatest offense of all time would get less than a FGs worth of points out of this change over a full season. 

At some point, the predictability from a game planning perspective is more valuable than a tiny amount of points. 

Yea, that's such a small margin that it will probably be outweighted by some intangible like showing a goal line play that you like that your opponents may learn to defend better.

[Jakuvious]

The fact that this is even possible kind of blows my mind.

[iknowcool]

26 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

The fact that this is even possible kind of blows my mind.

Not to mention they didn't just win but won by double digit points themselves in all 3 postseason games.  Ridiculous.  

How often has that even happened?  A team winning all three of their playoff games by double digits?  And the Chiefs did it despite going down double digits in those games.

Edited February 3, 2020 by iknowcool

[tyler735]

 

[SkippyX]

McCaffrey had 10 more TDs and 676 more yards from scrimmage than Thomas.

He had 116 catches himself while also carrying the ball 287 times.

McCaffrey should have won that award with Thomas in 2nd place.

Are we saying Offensive Player of the Year is about being on a winning team now?

 

Thomas was about 90th in targeted air yards.

He was 40th in YAC per catch.

[Jakuvious]

 

[SalvadorsDeli]

Obviously they're small sample sizes in their own right but the 'Mahomes when trailing by 10+ points' stats and the 'Mahomes on 3rd and 15 stats' help paint a nice picture of the dangers of playing prevent defense. You play aggressive to go and put him in that bad position to begin with and then you stop doing what got you that far in the first place and play not to lose once you see the goal in sight. Against a transcendent QB like Mahomes you can see exactly why that ends up setting yourself up for failure. 

[SkippyX]

Timeline:

41 years ago Warren Moon went undrafted and was not given the chance to play QB in the NFL.

34 years ago the first QB taken in the draft, Cunningham,  had to wait until the 9th pick of round 2.

EDIT: 32 years ago Doug Williams was Super Bowl MVP

EDIT:  24 years ago Steve McNair went #3 overall in the draft and led his team to a Super Bowl appearance

20 years ago McNabb went #2 overall in the draft and led his team to a Super Bowl appearance

18 years ago Michael Vick went #1 overall

In 2019 the League MVP and SB MVP are both 1st round QBs who are now able to play based only on their ability.

Edited February 3, 2020 by SkippyX

[goldfishwars]

In 2017, these players were all selected before Patrick Mahomes:

• Mitchell Trubisky
• Solomon Thomas 
• Leonard Fournette 
• Corey Davis 
• Mike Williams 
• John Ross 
   

[Matts4313]

6 hours ago, SkippyX said:

Timeline:

41 years ago Warren Moon went undrafted and was not given the chance to play QB in the NFL.

34 years ago the first QB taken in the draft, Cunningham,  had to wait until the 9th pick of round 2.

EDIT: 32 years ago Doug Williams was Super Bowl MVP

EDIT:  24 years ago Steve McNair went #3 overall in the draft and led his team to a Super Bowl appearance

20 years ago McNabb went #2 overall in the draft and led his team to a Super Bowl appearance

18 years ago Michael Vick went #1 overall

In 2019 the League MVP and SB MVP are both 1st round QBs who are now able to play based only on their ability.

Historically a lot of AA were pressured into playing non-QB positions. I mean, we still see it today on occasion. 

[Matts4313]

 

The ~7  closest teams to the Cowboys all made it past the 1st round in the playoffs. And we went 8-8. Crazy.

[SkippyX]

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Historically a lot of AA were pressured into playing non-QB positions. I mean, we still see it today on occasion. 

Big mouth Bill Polian went all '70s GM on Lamar Jackson during the draft leadup.

[SkippyX]

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

 

The ~7  closest teams to the Cowboys all made it past the 1st round in the playoffs. And we went 8-8. Crazy.

We all know why.

They killed the bad teams.

Dak was bad in 3 quarters and great in the 4th (but not enough to win) or Dak was great for 3 quarters and did not get it done in the 4th.

 

Its not all on him, and its not the only reason by a long shot but it was a big factor in a high efficiency team with a mediocre record.

 

Good news is the humiliation of Green Bay in SF shows that it was likely more Rodgers than McCarthy so lets see how Dak does under his new coach.

[Matts4313]

1 minute ago, SkippyX said:

We all know why.

They killed the bad teams.

Dak was bad in 3 quarters and great in the 4th (but not enough to win) or Dak was great for 3 quarters and did not get it done in the 4th.

 

Its not all on him, and its not the only reason by a long shot but it was a big factor in a high efficiency team with a mediocre record.

 

Good news is the humiliation of Green Bay in SF shows that it was likely more Rodgers than McCarthy so lets see how Dak does under his new coach.

Whats your thoughts on QBR. Need to know before I get into a big debate with you that will go no where