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Notable Stats and Observations

Hunter2_1

By Hunter2_1
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Jakuvious

Jakuvious

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Hasnt this 3rd and 15 thing been posted a bunch of times in different charts/tweets? I feel like I have seen this 10 times. 

Couple variations. I posted a Trey Wingo tweet a few pages back about Pat's QBR versus the league's as a whole this year on 3rd and long. This one goes back a bit further, makes a better visual out of it, and has some better metrics than QBR.

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Uncle Buck

Uncle Buck

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5
8 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Here is a simple way to explain it, because I think you are trying to view it like passer rating. In the Saints game Dak had a 70 QBR. Which means Daks play gave us a 70% chance of winning. "But Dak only scored 10 points" - - the Saints only scored 12. If the Saints has scored 30, Daks QBR would have been later. 

So because the score was 12-10, Daks play still gave us a 70% chance of winning. 

 

Daks play in the Vikings game was superb. Based on him alone, we had an 85% chance of winning. Ask @Uncle Buck if you dont believe me. He literally drove us down to the ~10 yard line in an absolutely perfect drive. Then Zeke lost yardage 2 plays in a row. The next play was a designed pass to Zeke who was covered tightly by a LB. Zeke didnt make a play on the ball, LB did.. INT game over. 

 

Do you understand it better now? 

I might be misunderstanding your numbers in the whole QB rating thing, but I don't know if the Cowboys had an 85% chance of winning the game.  One thing I will say, Matts4313, is that you are right about Dak's performance in that game as whole.  The guy was majestic in that game. 

If I were to look at anything to find a reason why the Cowboys lost, I would point to the playcalling on that last drive.  Zak was destroying our secondary all the way up the field and then when it really mattered, The Clapper (or whoever was calling the plays) decided to rush the ball on 1st and 2nd down and then tried throwing to the running back on third and long.  When your quarterback has the hot hand, keep letting him pass to his receivers and let him win the game for you.  The Cowboys outsmarted themselves with that playcalling, and IMO, that's what lost the game for them.  There is NO WAY anyone can blame Dak for losing that game as far as I'm concerned.

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Matts4313

Matts4313

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

I might be misunderstanding your numbers in the whole QB rating thing, but I don't know if the Cowboys had an 85% chance of winning the game.  One thing I will say, Matts4313, is that you are right about Dak's performance in that game as whole.  The guy was majestic in that game. 

If I were to look at anything to find a reason why the Cowboys lost, I would point to the playcalling on that last drive.  Zak was destroying our secondary all the way up the field and then when it really mattered, The Clapper (or whoever was calling the plays) decided to rush the ball on 1st and 2nd down and then tried throwing to the running back on third and long.  When your quarterback has the hot hand, keep letting him pass to his receivers and let him win the game for you.  The Cowboys outsmarted themselves with that playcalling, and IMO, that's what lost the game for them.  There is NO WAY anyone can blame Dak for losing that game as far as I'm concerned.

I was just trying to explain why Daks QBR was so high. Its not that the Cowboys had an 85% chance of winning, its that Daks performance in a vacuum (excluding defense, special teams, coaching, etc)  was good enough for a 85QBR. QBR tries to measure how well the QB is doing to put his team in a position to win. So Dak could of had an 85 and Kirk could of had a 95QBR. 

An example: QB1 can have 300 yards all on check downs who keeps throwing for 9 yards on 3rd and 10. They are not giving their team a chance to win.

Another QB2 could have 150 yards, but every throw is for is for a 1st down. They are doing a lot more to help their team win. 

 

The first QB will have a better passer rating (stat compilation). The second QB will have a higher QBR (putting his team in a position to win). 

 

Neither is perfect.

Edited by Matts4313
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SkippyX

SkippyX

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Here is a simple way to explain it, because I think you are trying to view it like passer rating. In the Saints game Dak had a 70 QBR. Which means Daks play gave us a 70% chance of winning. "But Dak only scored 10 points" - - the Saints only scored 12. If the Saints has scored 30, Daks QBR would have been later. 

So because the score was 12-10, Daks play still gave us a 70% chance of winning. 

 

Daks play in the Vikings game was superb. Based on him alone, we had an 85% chance of winning. Ask @Uncle Buck if you dont believe me. He literally drove us down to the ~10 yard line in an absolutely perfect drive. Then Zeke lost yardage 2 plays in a row. The next play was a designed pass to Zeke who was covered tightly by a LB. Zeke didnt make a play on the ball, LB did.. INT game over. 

 

Do you understand it better now? 

Yes, its a completely useless stat that has no bearing on anything.

Thanks for clearing it up.

A QBs job is to score points and win, not kinda suck but its OK if the other team's QB sucked too.

Dak is a trailer. xD

 

There is a stat for QBs who have a bad game but turn it on late and win and lead their teams to a winning record.

Its called Game Winning Drives and Dak had none this year.

Josh Allen had 5

Allen probably leads the 2019 Cowboys to the playoffs. I am sure he beats Buffalo on Thanksgiving anyway. 

Edited by SkippyX
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Matts4313

Matts4313

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1 minute ago, SkippyX said:

Yes, its a completely useless stat that has no bearing on anything.

Thanks for clearing it up.

A QBs job is to score points and win, not kinda suck but its OK if the other team's QB sucked too.

Dak is a trailer. xD

#2 most correlated stat to winning. 

And you saying it sucks it literally the most ironic thing in the entire world. Its the same stat that tries to do what *YOU* try to do all the damn time. Which is prove if a QBs play is positively affecting the teams chance at winning. 

 

QBR = @SkippyX in a nutshell. But its done with professional analytics from large sports company. So its like, a much better version of you. 

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Shanedorf

Shanedorf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

I’m not familiar with this. What does this mean? Why can’t you just buy season tickets every year?

For some of the stadiums, they sold Personal Seat Licenses that give you the privilege... to buy season tickets
Its quite an amazing racket.
The owners used that PSL money to pay for stadium renovations & expansions among other things.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_seat_license

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Matts4313

Matts4313

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

I’m not familiar with this. What does this mean? Why can’t you just buy season tickets every year?

 

12 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

For some of the stadiums, they sold Personal Seat Licenses that give you the privilege... to buy season tickets
Its quite an amazing racket.
The owners used that PSL money to pay for stadium renovations & expansions among other things.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_seat_license

You are kinda simplifying it. You are owning the rights to that seat. So any event at that venue, you own that seat. For  Cowboys stadium, that includes concerts, boxing matches, college games, concerts, etc

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bigbadbuff

bigbadbuff

Posted
Posted
Just now, Matts4313 said:

 

You are kinda simplifying it. You are owning the rights to that seat. So any event at that venue, you own that seat. For  Cowboys stadium, that includes concerts, boxing matches, college games, concerts, etc

You own the seat, but then have to buy tickets on top of that?

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Matts4313

Matts4313

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

You own the seat, but then have to buy tickets on top of that?

Right. But you get the tickets at face value and are guaranteed a seat. I am pretty sure you also own the seat "forever". So it could be in your family for 30 years.

 

Most people who do it end up making some/most of the money back by ticket resales. So lets say you have 50 yard line, 10 rows up tickets. Its Cowboys Steelers, SNF. Those tickets are probably ~$1000-2000 on the open market. Because you own the seat, you get to buy them at face (~$500) and then sell them for a big profit. 

Now do that, but include final 4 basketball games. Alabama has played there. Floyd Mayweather (I think - it was some big name boxing match) has fought there. All the sudden you are making a $10-20 grand a year in profit on events you dont want to go to. 

 

Also, *most* of those seats are bought by large corporations. They are spifs for execs. 

Edited by Matts4313
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Matts4313

Matts4313

Posted
Posted (edited)

My coworkers dad did 4 seats in the Cowboys stadium when it opened up. He lives in Chicago. I think they said it took something like ~2 years to recoup all the money. So its been pure profit for the last 8 years. Ofcourse, they dont really go to any of the events. 

 

Edit: Actually,  now that I am thinking about it, I think they said the superbowl was the point they paid it off and made a profit. 

Edited by Matts4313
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