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Hunter2_1

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That treats a double covered receiver on 3rd and 12 the same as a wide open TE in the flat on 1st and 10, right?

I'm not sure how useful that stat is in real game situations.

1 and 3 also scream Sean Payton and the New Orleans system with Michael Thomas to me.

 

Take a look at this list. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/top-plays/improbable-completions/2019/1

That's the 20 most unlikely completions each week.

  • Wilson is on the list 14 times
  • Rodgers is on it 12 times
  • Dak is on it 11 times
  • Jackson is on it 9 times
  • Cousins 8 times
  • Brady 7 times

Brees shows up 2x. Teddy 2x and Taysom Hill 2x. 

 

Also check out the page referenced in the tweet:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

Go to intended air yards per pass and you will find

  • Brees at 33 
  • Teddy at 32
  • Jimmy G at 31
  • Carr at 27

So dink and dunk = better accuracy.

Cousins is in the middle of the pack so he must be doing a great job.

Stafford and Winston are 1 and 2 while Wentz is 9  (throwing deep is hard)

Rudolph and Goff are middle of the pack and having bad years all-around.

One guy is learning and the other guys offense is melting.  So take those with a grain of salt.

 

 

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6 hours ago, SkippyX said:

Take a look at this list. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/top-plays/improbable-completions/2019/1

That's the 20 most unlikely completions each week.

Is it necessarily a good thing to be chucking improbable passes though? Top 5 overall doesn't exactly scream creme de la creme of quarterbacking with Russel Wilson, Mitch Trubisky, Luke Falk, Andy Dalton and Jared Goof. The list get better after that, but that doesn't fit my narrative so I choose to ignore it. 

Had Wilson thrown it a second earlier, he would've had a much easier completion to Lockett. Same with Goff to some extent as he had single coverage outside, but still decided to throw it to Kupp in double/triple coverage. Falk is more a great play by the WR, can't fault the decision making and the other two I don't get any video. I don't know, stat seems a bit dumb and arbitrary to me.  

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4 hours ago, evilflamingo said:

Is it necessarily a good thing to be chucking improbable passes though?  

No it’s not.  A majority of the time anyway.  

Almost all of those next gen stats can mean wildly separate things depending on context.

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1 minute ago, Split the Sticks said:

So there is something to be said for aggression, eh?  Nice.

It does send a message and winning is mostly mental domination.

This stat is so stupid but funny. We commit the most penalties every season, and more aren't "sending a message" like tough play. It's typically lining up offsides and PI.

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23 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

What do you do with that going forward? As a Bucs fan do you hope they bring Winston back long term or start looking for his replacement?

You have to replace it. 29 interceptions is unacceptable regardless of what your yardage and touchdowns accumulate to.

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25 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

What do you do with that going forward? As a Bucs fan do you hope they bring Winston back long term or start looking for his replacement?

I don't know how you could be looking at Winston long term and liking what you see. He's a turnover machine even with a "QB Guru" at HC.

 He's a backup moving forward IMO, maybe a stopgap for a crappy team. I see him becoming a Fitzmagic type. A guy who can come in and make some dazzling plays from time to time or he can come in and absolutely sink your team.

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