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Microsoft purchases Bethesda


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14 minutes ago, elevators_rule said:

Surely, though, there is some exclusivity/timed exclusivity, though, right? Microsoft wouldn't have paid 7.5b just to put these on Game Pass. They undoubtedly could have done that for far less in a separate deal with Bethesda. And while those smaller game franchises are good, they definitely aren't worth 7.5b.

For sure. You dont buy one of the most popular gaming studios to just put it on your gamepass. I definitely expect some exclusives when it comes to their big games. Maybe timed exclusives like you stated

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18 minutes ago, elevators_rule said:

Surely, though, there is some exclusivity/timed exclusivity, though, right? Microsoft wouldn't have paid 7.5b just to put these on Game Pass. They undoubtedly could have done that for far less in a separate deal with Bethesda. And while those smaller game franchises are good, they definitely aren't worth 7.5b.

They're not paying $7.5b for the games, they're paying for the company that makes them, which are highly profitable. 

There is no way Elder Scrolls and Fallout are going to be exclusives. Just no way. They won't give up the $$ they will get from PS5 which will be the substantially better sold console imo. 

Wouldn't be shocked to see new IPs become exclusives though. I doubt Starfield as they are so far in development 

Edited by JBURGE
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54 minutes ago, Kiltman said:

Good god, didn’t expect this. What a move.

I think the beautiful move here is Microsoft doesn’t need to make everything exclusive. If you want to play on a PS5 or Switch that’s fine, franchises like Doom, Fallout and Elder Scrolls will be there. But you’ll buy the game at $60-$70 dollars per game. Or you can play all of them on Xbox and PC and pay $10-$15 dollars a month ($120-$180 a year) and the Xbox game studios games too. It gives you the choice but if you’re trying to not spend tons of money it makes sense to play on Xbox/PC. That will sway people.
 

I think long running franchise will definitely stay multiplat (Elder Scrolls, Doom, Fallout). But probably Arkane and any new IP will have a chance to be exclusive to Xbox/PC. Biggest question mark is Starfield.

So that brings Microsoft up to 22 teams now right? Crazy compared to where they were a couple years ago.

This is bang on. The rumours of MS removing the pay for online makes sense too. If they can prove enough value with their GamePass Ultimate, they can continue to charge $15 a month for it and people will pay it. Companies are getting favourable valuations based on consistent monthly revenue. This is why MS doesn't care about how these new consoles sell, they are changing their business model to be "Play anywhere, just pay us more each month" which is great for them and great for consumers. The consoles are just to make sure they still compete in that space and give gamers a more affordable gaming option than a PC. 

From every 1 million new customers they get to GamePass on PC at $10 ($120 per year) a month they make $1.2b in revenue, per year. 

Upgrades from Xbox Live to Ultimate  is $5 per month too.

One last edit... as of April this year Microsoft has 10 million GamePass subscribers, for those wondering. I think new subscribers in the coming years to the program will be measured in millions, hence my numbers above

Edited by JBURGE
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28 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

They're not paying $7.5b for the games, they're paying for the company that makes them, which are highly profitable. 

There is no way Elder Scrolls and Fallout are going to be exclusives. Just no way. They won't give up the $$ they will get from PS5 which will be the substantially better sold console imo. 

Wouldn't be shocked to see new IPs become exclusives though. I doubt Starfield as they are so far in development 

I don't think it's that cut and dry. Yes you would be giving up the money you'd get from PS5 software sales, but the idea is you'd leverage the exclusivity to sell more Xbox consoles or Game Pass subscriptions. Let's say 10 million (just for arguments sake) people would have bought Fallout 5 on the PS5 at $70 a copy for sales totaling $700m. By moving it to Xbox, you maybe bring over an additional 1 million fans who buy the console at some point just to play your game. That's $630m less in total $$. But now those 1m new fans are interacting with your eco system in new ways. Since they already own the console, they're much more likely to buy/play other Xbox exclusives. They're also much more likely to buy other non-exclusives on an Xbox platform where Microsoft makes $$ from each sale. The total money Microsoft gets from selling 1m additional consoles + 1m additional potential sales of several other exclusive titles + 1m sales of Game Pass for several months might incentivize them to make some exclusivity deal from a financial perspective. Plus, it's also worth stating again they don't have to make it a permanent exclusive. They could make it a timed exclusive where they cash in on everything I said above, but then still sell games to PS5 owners maybe 6 months after release.

I'd be shocked if Microsoft bought Bethesda only to make money via selling their IPs and nothing else.

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28 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

They're not paying $7.5b for the games, they're paying for the company that makes them, which are highly profitable. 

There is no way Elder Scrolls and Fallout are going to be exclusives. Just no way. They won't give up the $$ they will get from PS5 which will be the substantially better sold console imo. 

Wouldn't be shocked to see new IPs become exclusives though. I doubt Starfield as they are so far in development 

Was thinking, one thing I think you'll see is Ultimate members play them early. They did that with Gears 5 I think.
So Elder Scrolls 6 and Fallout 5 launch on a Friday in November like they have before, but Ultimate members play it maybe get it a couple days before on Tuesday.
It's like an accepted exclusive move that companies have done for awhile but don't get flax for like a month or longer exclusive does.

I wonder if they do let Obsidian do a Fallout New Vegas 2 or any other spinoffs happen if those would be exclusive though.
I Machinegames and Arkane might go full exclusive. I think this is great for Arkane, more people will play their games..they were kinda stuck from entering a higher tier. They do some interesting things.

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1 hour ago, JBURGE said:

This is bang on. The rumours of MS removing the pay for online makes sense too. If they can prove enough value with their GamePass Ultimate, they can continue to charge $15 a month for it and people will pay it. Companies are getting favourable valuations based on consistent monthly revenue. This is why MS doesn't care about how these new consoles sell, they are changing their business model to be "Play anywhere, just pay us more each month" which is great for them and great for consumers. The consoles are just to make sure they still compete in that space and give gamers a more affordable gaming option than a PC. 

From every 1 million new customers they get to GamePass on PC at $10 ($120 per year) a month they make $1.2b in revenue, per year. 

Upgrades from Xbox Live to Ultimate  is $5 per month too.

One last edit... as of April this year Microsoft has 10 million GamePass subscribers, for those wondering. I think new subscribers in the coming years to the program will be measured in millions, hence my numbers above

Microsoft just reported up to 15 million members for game pass 

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1 hour ago, elevators_rule said:

I don't think it's that cut and dry. Yes you would be giving up the money you'd get from PS5 software sales, but the idea is you'd leverage the exclusivity to sell more Xbox consoles or Game Pass subscriptions. Let's say 10 million (just for arguments sake) people would have bought Fallout 5 on the PS5 at $70 a copy for sales totaling $700m. By moving it to Xbox, you maybe bring over an additional 1 million fans who buy the console at some point just to play your game. That's $630m less in total $$. But now those 1m new fans are interacting with your eco system in new ways. Since they already own the console, they're much more likely to buy/play other Xbox exclusives. They're also much more likely to buy other non-exclusives on an Xbox platform where Microsoft makes $$ from each sale. The total money Microsoft gets from selling 1m additional consoles + 1m additional potential sales of several other exclusive titles + 1m sales of Game Pass for several months might incentivize them to make some exclusivity deal from a financial perspective. Plus, it's also worth stating again they don't have to make it a permanent exclusive. They could make it a timed exclusive where they cash in on everything I said above, but then still sell games to PS5 owners maybe 6 months after release.

I'd be shocked if Microsoft bought Bethesda only to make money via selling their IPs and nothing else.

You're right, it's not so cut and dry. I was arguing that they didn't buy the company for the IPs. It's the opposite imo. They are selling it to beef up their subscription service. Then they will also still profit off Bethesda selling the game to other platforms. You basically expanded on my point saying it will bring players over to their ecosystem because the value is great. Then the ones that don't want to they will still sell the games individually to PS5 because Fallout and Elder Scrolls are two of the biggest franchises of all time. I don't think the will do even a timed exclusive. MS has been cashing in on consumer support on this whole lead-up to the console launches. I think it's a brilliant move if they announce Fallout and Elder Scrolls are coming to other consoles too. MS is playing for the future while Sony is going to try to hang on to their exclusives for as long as they can. 

Your point about potential sales of other exclusive titles is also true - I think stubborn people will choose to buy Xbox exclusives rather than pay for the gamepass service because they feel that by buying one or two games a year is cheaper than gamepass, which it isn't anymore. 

Honestly I was kinda wondering what the hell MS was doing with with this huge shift away from the consoles, but this acquisition just brings it all together. Sony will destroy MS over the first few years again of console sales imo because of their exclusives and goodwill from the last generation (free upgrades with people with PS4s etc) but MS will be MUCH better equipped to handle the shift to subscription gaming service like Sony is going to be forced to go soon

Edited by JBURGE
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