Microsoft purchases Bethesda

[Kiltman]

9 minutes ago, OkeyDoke21 said:

Where is that statistic coming from?  That seems absurdly high.  Is that accounting for overlap of XBox/PC gamers?  I probably don't understand the mobile portion, but wouldn't that number just include people who already own an XBox or PC to have access to XCloud, or are there mobile players that don't have either XBox or PC, and strictly play xcloud on mobile?

I'll try and find the stats/study, the ESO makes it harder to find. I don't think it was counting overlap and was swayed by other regions. Like in the US console players are higher than some other places. The numbers I wrote were  probably high if you include last gen into it, though it doesn't seem like any of these Bethesda games are coming to last gen so it doesn't matter what last gen was. 

Was a breakdown of how and where people play. Basically globally gamers play a lot more on PC and Mobile...and how cloud transforms mobile (tv/streaming apps), to being an equal platform to PC and consoles. There are a ton of mobile players who don't play anything else, partly do to barrier to entry. Like mostly everyone will buy a phone, so all they need to do is sign up for xCloud and they can play whatever the console and pc can. You take out that $500 or $300 console, take out the $700+ PC cost and you get an influx of players wanting to try your games/service.

It's also tough to really decipher with xCloud and streaming just now becoming viable, with the help of speeds going up and 5G coming online
Like those number could change a lot this next decade as the tech gets better.

I don't think Sony's marketshare is nothing, and this new gen will still be huge for them, you are leaving money on the table by not releasing those games there.
But the question is would they at least equal out that money by keeping it to themselves? Probably they would.

[Kiltman]

15 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I can also see them with the marketing tactic of "Starfield is coming to all consoles this Fall, but is included for free with GamePass Ultimate on Xbox consoles and PC." This is still keeping the revenue from PS5 owners but also a big bonus to those who own an Xbox or PC. They win either way, but one way gives them access to 100% of the market. 

These numbers will obviously not be accurate now because these were just launch numbers, but Fallout 4 sold 5.19 million units in its first week across all platforms, and 58% of those were on PS4. (source https://www.psu.com/news/fallout-4-sold-over-5-million-in-first-week-ps4-sales-ahead-of-xbox-one-version/). This is less than 2 years after the PS4 launched. We wont know what the PS5 - Series X split is for a while since they are still pretty much unavailable, but this is just to show that your 15% number is wildly unrealistic. 

If this helps, estimates show so far world wide sales of PS5 and Xbox are 4.5 million for PS5 and 2.4 million Seriex X|S units (source https://www.techspot.com/news/88336-ps5-sold-nearly-twice-many-units-2020-xbsx.html).

It is also NOT like the Mandalorian going on Netflix. It would be like Disney partners with Samsung and says you can only watch the Mandalorian on Samsung TVs. That's not even a great example, it's not comparable because you can access Disney+ and Netflix on any device. There is a piece of hardware here that the average Joe will not be buying another console just to access if they already own a PS5. This is why MS doing all of this on PC too is brilliant - they've given up competing with Sony on console sales. 

Oh yeah I agree that's totally a way they can go, even better for them would be releasing it this fall as a big marketing push with Halo Infinite. and releasing it Fall 2022 on PS5. They get more people to come to their platforms for the game, while eventually cashing in on the holdouts. 

The thing is as great as Gamepass is, it still costs money. Like theoretically they need to release 3 games a year you'd spend $60 on (or some combination of smaller games) to make the $180 Gamepass Ultimate cost be worth it. So Starfield, Halo, etc is what they are selling you on. The bonus comes in on everyone's $180 would be spent different and you get the stuff that other people are putting worth towards. Like Some people will get it to play Forza every year. I'd never buy Forza as good of a racing game it is, because it's not really my thing, but I get to play them because of other people putting that worth into it.

I remember those Fallout stats, and yeah it could go that way again in terms of console sale breakdown.
But it's hard to with how that gen started to this one, as well as the end of year 2 of a gen to the end of year 1.  
But even using the numbers of Fallout 4's launch. They sold a little over 3 mil at launch on PS4, at $60 a pop. that $180 million. Not a small amount.
But if they can get a million subs from the move to gamepass it's a wash, even moreso when you throw in console sales, them spending money in ecosystem, etc.

 

I messed up with the figure, I think I double counted just the xbox numbers. The graph I remember seeing was like 65% Pc/Mobile, 20% PS. 10% Xbox, 5% Nintendo.
The larger point was PC/Mobile/Xbox is a fairly large part of the marketshare.

The Mandalorian example was about the content and launching a service. Gamepass has been around for a bit but they've yet to have a huge wide reaching AAA game launch day and date. Starfield would be the be that Mandalorian level product that makes people move to a platform. Yeah the translation gets a little lost, but given you can by the time Starfield launches just pay $15 an stream it with xCloud, it's not a huge barrier to entry.

[showtime]

There's def going to be games that are exclusive to Xbox and PC, as their should be. Good for them.

[rob_shadows]

I wonder if they might try to use it as leverage to almost trade exclusives... Like go to Sony and say "we'll release elder scrolls 6 on ps5 if you release God of War (for example) on Series X.

[showtime]

3 hours ago, rob_shadows said:

I wonder if they might try to use it as leverage to almost trade exclusives... Like go to Sony and say "we'll release elder scrolls 6 on ps5 if you release God of War (for example) on Series X.

I don't think that will happen. God of War on Xbox? Lol

I still think that Game Pass will eventually be accessible for PS players in some way in the distant future. I think ideally, MS would love to have all their stuff on PS because they care more about software sales and not as much hardware.

[Kiltman]

1 hour ago, showtime said:

I don't think that will happen. God of War on Xbox? Lol

I still think that Game Pass will eventually be accessible for PS players in some way in the distant future. I think ideally, MS would love to have all their stuff on PS because they care more about software sales and not as much hardware.

Would be a great world to live in if everything did come to the other platforms eventually. But I doubt it until they are all streaming services.
I'm just happy Sony is starting to put them on PC, even if it's years later. I hope someday gamepass/xcloud come to nintendo...absolute perfect setup.

I do too, lots has to happen to get them to that point though. 
Xbox has to land this 1st slate of games, if they don't all they've been building towards will fall short.
If not one of Halo Infinite, Hellblade 2, Avowed, Fable. Perfect dark, etc are must have games they simply can't compete aside from buying huge publishers.
Like the next step would probably be to buy EA, 2K or re-enter discussions with WB... with no end in sight if they were committed to making gaming work.
And no one should want that.

If they nail these games, and make all their games including Bethesda's slate exclusive to Gamepass...they make it a lot harder for Sony to say no.
Xbox being able to say "Hey we'll put Elder Scrolls on Playstation but Sony won't let us." is a pretty convincing way to strongarm Sony if the demand was loud enough.
 

[Kiltman]

Phil pretty much puts an end to it.

Bethesda will be exclusive to platforms Gamepass exists, so for now Xbox, PC and xCloud.
Outside of any contractual obligations (Deathloop, Ghostwire) or ongoing games (Fallout 76, TESO) 

Doesn't answer anything specifically but about as definite an answer we'll get til the summer.
Which they teased would be a show.

 

These games will be put into gamepass tomorrow, Aaron Greenberg mentioned they are looking into FPS boost and other enhancements for a lot of the Bethesda titles.

[y*so*blu]

Meh. Bethesda wasn't getting business from me anyway (memories of Skyrim on PS3 are still fresh), and this news is unlikely to change that. 😐

[JBURGE]

Right so again no confirmation, just more hints. I will believe it when I hear them say that it will be exclusive. It's not terribly difficult for him to have said Starfield will be exclusive, and I don't know why he wouldn't. 

[Kiltman]

To the actual acquisition, I'm excited for Arkane.
They make great games that never seem to sell. Should be a big spotlight for them to be on gampass.
Deathloop looks awesome, can't wait to play it next year. Along with whatever the other studio is doing.
Was interesting  those two newer studios got secretive callouts like they did, I thought they'd be smaller games...maybe not?

I think stuff like that, giving their games more time to cook and not having to turn towards heavy monetization are all benefits that should come out of this for the studios.
 

[Kiltman]

Just now, JBURGE said:

Right so again no confirmation, just more hints. I will believe it when I hear them say that it will be exclusive. It's not terribly difficult for him to have said Starfield will be exclusive, and I don't know why he wouldn't. 

It's sounded fairly definitive in terms of the future. They'll address the games like Starfield and Indiana Jones individually. The contracts he was addressing for sure were Deathloop and Ghostwire being PS exclusive for a year. But yeah could be Starfield and Indy too, we'll find out in the summer. Not really sure what contracts those would be given how far out they were when talks started and no platforms were promised. (Which was cited as one of the reasons Psychonauts 2 is multiplat)

Beyond that though it seems nothing will come to "systems without gamepass".
So some of the newer stuff is up in the air but it certainly sounded like Elder Scrolls 6 isn't coming to PS5 unless gamepass is too.
So it could be the opposite a lot of people thought, where the big series (Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Doom, Wolfenstein) are all exclusive but some of these new IPs coming out soon will be multiplat.

[JBURGE]

Just now, Kiltman said:

It's sounded fairly definitive in terms of the future. They'll address the games like Starfield and Indiana Jones individually. The contracts he was addressing for sure were Deathloop and Ghostwire being PS exclusive for a year. But yeah could be Starfield and Indy too, we'll find out in the summer. Not really sure what contracts those would be given how far out they were when talks started and no platforms were promised. (Which was cited as one of the reasons Psychonauts 2 is multiplat)

Beyond that though it seems nothing will come to "systems without gamepass".
So some of the newer stuff is up in the air but it certainly sounded like Elder Scrolls 6 isn't coming to PS5 unless gamepass is too.
So it could be the opposite a lot of people thought, where the big series (Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Doom, Wolfenstein) are all exclusive but some of these new IPs coming out soon will be multiplat.

I hate exclusives, man. I was a 360 guy, then PS4 and 5, and I wish all of the Sony stuff wasn't exclusive. 

[Kiltman]

1 minute ago, JBURGE said:

I hate exclusives, man. I was a 360 guy, then PS4 and 5, and I wish all of the Sony stuff wasn't exclusive. 

Ideally they just are services and you can play where you want. I'd like to see everyone be able to play everything.

Given the state of Bethesda and how the industry is, I'm fine with this one. Would rather this full immersed culture merge that will get more games made and let them cook longer than the old approach of just throwing money to keep things away from players. That includes exclusive in-game content, which can sometimes be more annoying. Bethesda was starting to struggle a bit with having to push stuff out, look into ways to monetize their games. This took that away.

But you go down each studio and there is a clear benefit for them to do this, and vice versa...I think they are going to help xbox a lot.
Like just in that video Erin Losi seemed to kinda pump the brakes that her counterpart at Xbox Aaron Greenberg usually overhypes. Which has been a problem for them.

I think more games focused though, they talked about idTech and how the technology will flow through all the xbox owned studios. They are building a huge RPG and FPS group of studios. So we will see them affecting each other, see some team ups for smaller games between studios. As an RPG fan that makes me excited. Bethesda on their own probably doesn't get out a Fallout 5 until 2030 or later, but now you could see one of the other studios take that over and breath some fresh life into it.

Like you look at the sectors like this and it'll be interesting to see the cross pollination and games that could come from it.

        Shooters | 343, The Coalition, id, MachineGames

                  RPG | Bethesda, Obsidian, Zenimax Online, Playground (2), inXile, Undead Labs

Action/Story | Arkane, The Initiative, Ninja Theory, Tango, Compulsion, (Roundhouse and Alpha Dog too?)

             Racing | Turn 10, Playground (1)

With Double Fine and Rare roaming game to game.

[elevators_rule]

I think it makes the most sense for Microsoft to make all Bethesda games for the next 2-4 years Xbox exclusives. These are the years where most people are deciding which console to get. The entire point of the Bethesda purchase is seemingly to use it as an incentive for people to integrate into the Xbox ecosystem- for console players that means trying to lure them into buying an Xbox (and likely signing up for Game Pass). If they announce at E3 this year that their games will be on PS5, then there's not too much extra incentive for players to choose the Xbox over the PS5. A lot of people would be happy just buying a PS5 and buying Bethesda games on there.

In the future, maybe in 5-6+ years, I think the dust will have settled more and console sales will be slowing down. At that point, I could see them releasing Bethesda games onto competing platforms either on release or maybe delayed a bit.

Great move by Microsoft again. This is the first time they've had a good group of exclusives to be excited for since... well I actually don't remember when. Maybe like 2007-2010? This is going to be very good for competition.

[Danger]

20 hours ago, rob_shadows said:

I wonder if they might try to use it as leverage to almost trade exclusives... Like go to Sony and say "we'll release elder scrolls 6 on ps5 if you release God of War (for example) on Series X.

This is what would be best for everyone.