2021 Broncos Forum College Prospects Thread

[BroncoBruin]

Every time I watch Kyler Murray, I want to throw my remote thinking about Elway going on some diatribe about how important playing under center is when asked about Kyler before the draft.

Kinda unbelievable that he may have the opportunity to pick the QB of the future again. 

[broncofan48]

2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Every time I watch Kyler Murray, I want to throw my remote thinking about Elway going on some diatribe about how important playing under center is when asked about Kyler before the draft.

Kinda unbelievable that he may have the opportunity to pick the QB of the future again. 

Agreed.  Which is why I don’t think Elway goes draft for QB if Drew doesn’t work out.   He’s gotta have some realization that he can’t pick QBs for ****.

 

Maybe he will try FA or trade again.  Matt Stanford anyone?  Have to do some cap wizardry I’m sure , but with the cheap weapons on offense and a decent defense my guess is Elway won’t want to wait for another young QB to figure it out.  

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Agreed.  Which is why I don’t think Elway goes draft for QB if Drew doesn’t work out.   He’s gotta have some realization that he can’t pick QBs for ****.

 

Maybe he will try FA or trade again.  Matt Stanford anyone?  Have to do some cap wizardry I’m sure , but with the cheap weapons on offense and a decent defense my guess is Elway won’t want to wait for another young QB to figure it out.  

Stafford isn't going to leave DET, they're committed to him.  They're good enough to not go full rebuild.

Realistically, there are 3 guys you know will be available:   Winston (FA),  Fitzmagic (FA) and Darnold (NYJ trade likely asks for a 2nd, and takes the highest bidder).   I doubt Elway thinks Fitzmagic is plan A (no one does).    I do think Elway may look at going this route, depending on where we land in the draft.   

If we were in line to get Trask (I do not see us passing NYJ & JAX, so we can take Lawrence & Fields out IMO), though, I could see Elway going there.   The helium on him will be insane, though.   He's now neck and neck with Lawrence and pulled ahead of Fields (not enough games) to win the Heisman.  We're about to see a Burrow-like helium rise if FLA makes it to the SEC final, and he plays well vs. 'Bama (and if UNC can upset Notre Dame, then a path to the Final 4 still exists for them to make it to the Final 4 even without a W there).  But unlike Burrow, he's not climbing past Lawrence or Fields IMO, their body of work puts them well ahead.  The #3 QB and top 6-10 overall spot, though, is ripe for the taking.

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Broncofan

[bMiller031]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Realistically, there are 3 guys you know will be available:   Winston (FA),  Fitzmagic (FA) and Darnold (NYJ trade likely asks for a 2nd, and takes the highest bidder).

I’m no expert QB scout and haven’t watched much NYJ tape but Darnold for a 2nd or 3rd seems like a reasonable gamble to me. Albeit not cost controlled after 2022, the likelihood that he pans out as a serviceable to above average QB is higher than any QB in the draft besides Field or Lawrence, IMO... 
 

correct me if I’m wrong 

Edited November 17, 2020 by bMiller031

[BroncoBruin]

Ugh it’s really hard to stomach any vet option that isn’t Stafford, who I do think would be a good fit and would elevate the roster. I guess Winston and Darnold as rehabilitation projects are better investments than obviously fluky Keenum and obviously washed Flacco but it’s still so frustrating to stay in this cycle of not knowing if you have a starter beyond the current season.

Like everyone obviously I hoped Drew would progress and with all the injuries they could still land a great defensive prospect in the 1st. Right now it’s hard to think about anyone but Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Wilson or Trask. Very likely that they will have a chance to take one of those five without trading up, may even have a choice of two of them. And of course you have to explore trading up. Whatever it takes they need to figure this out. You’ve invested all this draft capital into a young offense and none of it will matter if they can’t find a guy in the next couple years. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by BroncoBruin

[Broncofan]

Personally if Lock fizzles out I’d look to go the Mia route and sign Fitzmagic and draft our QBOTF.   Or Winston if he’s cheap and we can't find a Rd1 target we like at our spot.  We can forget about trading up to get Trevor or Fields, NYJ/JAX are engaged in a tank-fest of epic proportions to lock those 2 guys down.   They're not trading out.  

All of Fitzmagic / Winston / Darnold are miles ahead of the corpses of Keenum / Flacco.   I’d definitely pay a 2nd for Darnold if we can’t get a Rd1 QB we like.  The Gase effect is well recognized and with the 5th year option (not cheap though) gives 3 years of control if he works out (EDIT:  Damn, it's only 1 cheap year plus option - makes the 2nd tougher value wise).   If he doesn’t a 2nd doesn’t hurt nearly as much.   Winston’s next 3-4 weeks as the starter in NO will set his FA price & market.

if we do draft a Rd1 QB I have no issues if we signed Fitzmagic (as long as money isn’t insane & only a 1-2 year deal) either.    Only as a temp caretaker but this is very possible ESP if it’s Lance - he likely needs a half season or more to catch up to NFL speed from FCS jump (Wentz really had a tough rookie year in the same spot). 

The beauty with a vet signing is if the rookie is ready to take over you can trade Fitzmagic at the deadline (MIA contention and insurance for Tua stopped them from offering, but CHI/DAL almost certainly would have been interested).   My objection with both vet signings with Keenum / Flacco was that the vets were awful AND we bypassed getting a QBOTF (and worse, we somehow traded for Flacco).   I’d be ok with Rd1 rookie / Fitz.  

Edited November 17, 2020 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

I’m no expert QB scout and haven’t watched much NYJ tape but Darnold for a 2nd or 3rd seems like a reasonable gamble to me. Albeit not cost controlled after 2022, the likelihood that he pans out as a serviceable to above average QB is higher than any QB in the draft besides Field or Lawrence, IMO... 
 

correct me if I’m wrong 

The things in Darnold's favor:

1.  He's shown flashes in game action of having the complete skill set.

2.  Gase's history in crushing talented players until they leave (or he does) is well-known at this stage.     

3.  He's still so very young - he's actually younger than Joe Burrow.   Let that sink in.

4.  His mobility and arm talent would work so well with our weapons.    It would also allow us to address T/CB in the draft Rd1, where I think we'd likely land BPA & need if we are in the  7-11 range (Surtain / Farley at CB, and whoever emerges from Leatherwood/Darrisaw/Mayfield/Cosmi at T).

The things against Darnold:

1.  The shoulder injury is much like Lock - so not a given he's still fully OK.   Then again, if that allows another discount (say a 3rd), even better.

2.  Because he's a top 10 pick, his 2023 option is pretty expensive (20M+).   So you're only getting him for 2021-2 cheaply (EDIT: as pointed out in replies he's only cheap for 2021, and 5th year option is 2022).

3.  He'd be on his 3rd OC in 4 years.

If somehow Trask / Lance fell to us at our spot, assuming Elway has both on the board, I think we go that way.  However, I see Darnold as a viable plan B so long as it's not higher than our Rd2 pick cost-wise, if we don't like who's left where we pick Rd1.   FWIW, I am warming on Trask, but I'd like to see him play vs. 'Bama and hopefully an elite D in bowl season (final 4 would be great) before reserving judgment.   He's really got major helium now.

Edited November 17, 2020 by Broncofan

[rcpbawler]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The things in Darnold's favor:

1.  He's shown flashes in game action of having the complete skill set.

2.  Gase's history in crushing talented players until they leave (or he does) is well-known at this stage.     

3.  He's still so very young - he's actually younger than Joe Burrow.   Let that sink in.

4.  His mobility and arm talent would work so well with our weapons.    It would also allow us to address T/CB in the draft Rd1, where I think we'd likely land BPA & need if we are in the  7-11 range (Surtain / Farley at CB, Leatherwood/Cosmi at T).

The things against Darnold:

1.  The shoulder injury is much like Lock - so not a give he's still fully OK.

2.  Because he's a top 10 pick, his 2023 option is pretty expensive (20M+).   So you're only getting him for 2021-2 cheaply.

3.  He'd be on his 3rd OC in 3 years.

If somehow Trask / Lance fell to us at our spot, assuming Elway has both on the board, I think we go that way.  However, I see Darnold as a viable plan B so long as it's not higher than our Rd2 pick cost-wise, if we don't like who's left where we pick Rd1.   FWIW, I am warming on Trask, but I'd like to see him play vs. 'Bama and hopefully an elite D in bowl season (final 4 would be great) before reserving judgment.   He's really got major helium now.

Darnold is in his third year currently so only one more "cheap" year. 

I was big on darnold so I'd be open to trading a second for him IF we were to bypass a first round QB. 

 

As for Trask, I still like Wilson quite a bit more but so might a few other teams. As always though, QBs tend to get overdrafted so I could see him being valued in that range by qb needy teams.

[Broncofan]

19 minutes ago, rcpbawler said:

Darnold is in his third year currently so only one more "cheap" year. 

I was big on darnold so I'd be open to trading a second for him IF we were to bypass a first round QB. 

 

As for Trask, I still like Wilson quite a bit more but so might a few other teams. As always though, QBs tend to get overdrafted so I could see him being valued in that range by qb needy teams.

Ah right, gotcha on year 3 - time travels quickly LOL.   So being cheap only for 2021 adds to the minuses, although 2022 isn't crazy in today's QB market, it's not longer cheap, either.    That might allow us to only pay a 3rd, and that would be an absolute bargain - but then again, it only takes 1 other team willing to pay a 2nd who's behind us, and we're stuck there too.   Given how many QB's are in the Rd1 mix, though, I think any Darnold trade doesn't happen until Rd2 of the draft, when teams who missed on QB then decide if they're willing to pay the 2nd for 1 year of Darnold.  The one thing in our favor - if we miss on Rd1 QB's, almost every team ahead of us won't be needing QB, and then our 2nd is likely tops value wise.   Heck, it might even be that our 3rd is tops value wise...but either way, Draft Day is when I think the Darnold situation plays itself out, not before.  For similar reasons I think Winston & Fitzmagic likely don't sign deals until after Draft Day, either (don't know how NO signs anyone early with their cap situation, and everyone else will be looking at draft first over those guys).

Wilson's big Q is that his opponents are probably on par with Lance's...if not worse.     He's put up amazing numbers, but the one game where he showed very real flaws, it was against the only team was average college-wise (HOU).   Everything else it's been like 'Bama playing against Alabama State.     It's like being a Big 12 QB, but facing D-II opponents.   Guys are open by 5 yards routinely.   Wilson is going to be toughest read IMO, even more so than Lance.

FWIW, I tend to agree with the belief that Elway won't have Wilson on his Rd1 board, given what he looks for in a QB.    Like it or not, Elway has a clear minimum threshold for size and arm strength / pocket ability projection (and sadly for us, sometimes over actual football skills - as it turns out, neither Lynch or Osweiler had anything but average arm skills, let alone awful in-between-the-ear traits).

Edited November 17, 2020 by Broncofan

[broncofan48]

Admittedly I don’t know much about the draft prospects at QB yet, but I don’t think there’s any way Elway goes back to that well if Drew doesn’t work out.  Doesn’t mean it’s the right decision or anything but I think Elway tries to replicate the one move that brought real success here and brings in a vet QB

[Dbrog24]

17 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Admittedly I don’t know much about the draft prospects at QB yet, but I don’t think there’s any way Elway goes back to that well if Drew doesn’t work out.  Doesn’t mean it’s the right decision or anything but I think Elway tries to replicate the one move that brought real success here and brings in a vet QB

Problem is, I don't think there's any way Elway is able to trade for Rodgers. The move that brought real success wasn't just some vet, it was one of the GOATS. I'd love a move for Darnold though as Broncofan brought up. That's breaking my brain to think he's younger than Burrow

Edited November 17, 2020 by Dbrog24

[broncofan48]

 

2 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

Problem is, I don't think there's any way Elway is able to trade for Rodgers. The move that brought real success wasn't just some vet, it was one of the GOATS. I'd love a move for Darnold though as Broncofan brought up. That's breaking my brain to think he's younger than Burrow

Oh I’d be on board for Darnold as well.  I just don’t think Elway will have enough patience to go back to the draft for the next QB.  Rodgers is impossible and @Broncofan brought up good points about Stanford as well.  
 

But Darnold, Winston, Fitzy, or maybe Brissett are all potential options.  And maybe none of them work either but I don’t see Elway wasting more draft capital on the position. 
 

Young, talented skill positions on offense.   Decent OL.   Solid defense with a good defensive mind.   Elway isn’t going to wait for a rookie to get up to speed and watch the window close.  You know he hates getting whipped by KC and now LV 

[rcpbawler]

33 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

 

Oh I’d be on board for Darnold as well.  I just don’t think Elway will have enough patience to go back to the draft for the next QB.  Rodgers is impossible and @Broncofan brought up good points about Stanford as well.  
 

But Darnold, Winston, Fitzy, or maybe Brissett are all potential options.  And maybe none of them work either but I don’t see Elway wasting more draft capital on the position. 
 

Young, talented skill positions on offense.   Decent OL.   Solid defense with a good defensive mind.   Elway isn’t going to wait for a rookie to get up to speed and watch the window close.  You know he hates getting whipped by KC and now LV 

If we went the journeyman route without drafting a qbotf I'd be livid. 

[bMiller031]

39 minutes ago, rcpbawler said:

If we went the journeyman route without drafting a qbotf I'd be livid. 

Elway hasn’t done it well and he knows that (hopefully)

I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Lock + FA signing + Day 2/3 QB competing for the job in 2021

[Dbrog24]

44 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Elway hasn’t done it well and he knows that (hopefully)

I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Lock + FA signing + Day 2/3 QB competing for the job in 2021

I hate that this does sound like something the management would do. Not only would this take away a key pick for filling a hole, it's literally the same mistake with going from Keenum to Flacco to signing a day 2 QB. 2022 can't come soon enough