Pace Revisited

[dll2000]

We spent a lot of offseason debating Pace's track record which is ongoing.

A lot can change in a hurry.  And level of competition hasn't been great in a lot of areas thus far.  So 2020 Pace bows are very premature.  

But ... lets do a brief review:

2020 draft class is getting early returns and contributions in a year where that should not be the case due to Covid restrictions on practice.

Graham has been disappointing as an impact player, but provides a clear and present danger that must be respected by defense.   That is making a difference in way teams play us and cannot be ignored.

So many running plays were negated last two years by extremely poor TE blocking.   TE blocking hasn't been all world, but we have not seen the constant whiffs this year blowing up plays in back field.

Ifedi has been one of best FA acquisitions in the league to date.   In a year where many teams are really struggling at guard.

I think biggest change isn't personnel, but we are seeing clear dividends on a coaching staff Nagy is comfortable with and trusts for first time since Nagy got here.

Kmet looks to have some upside as a Y TE.

Mooney and Johnson, haven't played against great NFL players yet, but both are looking really good against middle of the road guys.   I have always said if you get two good players and a decent starter out of a draft class that is a real good class.    Bears may have end up having done that.  Without a first rounder to boot.  We'll see.  

The 2019 draft class is basically Khalil Mack and Montgomery.  That is two good starters (one exceptional).   But no one else really.  But that is price for a HOF acquisition.  Mack is worth 2 guys and at an impact position to boot. 

2018 draft class at this time is led by Smith, Nichols and Daniels with Wims contributing.    If you asked us after week 1 about Miller a lot of people would be pumped, after week 2 a lot of people are really down on him.   And he may see his snaps drop more.   

Roquan has been disappointing for his slot, but still flashes as a really good player and makes plays few people can.  I think he can put it together still and be a top player in the league.   If he was a 3rd round pick you would have to be really pleased with him.  

All in all 2018 class is pretty good as a whole and looks to be improving.  2018 brought in Allen Robinson on a relatively cheap deal as well who has been Bears best offensive player last two years and counting.    We don't have a lot of stellar play that we would like to see, but we have a lot of decent players contributing.   

2017 is year that Pace gets hammered on because he passed on best player of current era in Mahomes, but so did a number of other teams.   Obviously in a redraft Mahomes goes number 1.

2017 also saw Pace get Jackson and Cohen and he has resigned both.   Again a good player and a role player, its the could've beens that drive people insane.  

But you can't weigh that as a good draft because we blew a top 5 draft pick and a high 2nd rounder and our FAs were absolute garbage.   

2016 wasn't great either because Floyd was a wasted pick in top 10.  But we did get Whitehair, Bush and Howard who had a couple of very productive years.  

2015 saw Goldman and Amos join team, but again we blew a top 10 pick.   But we landed Hicks in FA.  

So using PFF grading scale of -2 to +2 in .5 increments.    I would give Pace:

2015:  -.5

2016:   -.5

2017:   -1.5 (for blowing two high picks and missing on generational players in process.  Saved from -2 by Jackson).  

2018:   +1 

2019:  +1 not a +1.5 because we had to give up a lot for Mack and it kept us from upgrading elsewhere.  

2020:  Undecided but looking good so far.  If deciding after 2 games it would be a +1.

So Pace seems to be trending upward and has managed to acquire a talented piece in each year.    

 Looking around the league Pace has done relatively well.  I think most GMs would have negative grades if I was grading.   Not stellar, but Bears could do a lot worse I think.   He does a pretty good job of managing the cap and not losing the team in situations where things are going poorly.  

I think his major failure has been the inability to acquire a good QB and he has only had one opportunity to do so early in a draft.   And the hit rate on those is bad for almost everyone and very few people can sign a good veteran QB as they decide where they go.   

I am in favor of keeping Pace around to try his hand at drafting another QB if need be.  He is good enough in enough other areas that I think it is worth it and seems to be getting better at his job as time goes on.    I could obviously be wrong about that though.

 

[soulman]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

So Pace seems to be trending upward and has managed to acquire a talented piece in each year.   

 

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I am in favor of keeping Pace around to try his hand at drafting another QB if need be.  He is good enough in enough other areas that I think it is worth it and seems to be getting better at his job as time goes on.

Despite his years of experience in NOLA Pace was an inexperienced GM heavily influenced by GMcC, Teddy Bears, and John Fox upon his arrival and was also handed a **** load of issues to deal with.  Rebuilding the defense was a priority but by virtue of Fox's mission to "change the culture" he was also faced with replacing Brandon Marshall as a #1 WR and others Fox had no use for on his team.  In truth having Fox foisted on him as his HC was already a major burden we soon learned.

I believe Amari Cooper was our guy all along and Oakland surprised many taking him over Kevin White.  Then Leonard Williams whom I believe we also would have taken goes to the Jets one pick before us and we end up with Kevin White as a booby prize.  Injuries were not his only problem.  He was about as far from being a polished NFL route runner as you could get and not even close to the type of WR in Marshall he was to replace.  Bad choice and also somewhat of an unlucky forced error but Pace could also have filled his need for a pass rusher with Vic Beasley or Dante Fowler instead of gambling hard on White.

But in the end Goldman, Amos and FA Sam Acho as a role player made 2015 a neutral in my book.  Hicks was signed in 2016.  Pernell McPhee came in 2015 but all we got out of him was one good year before injuries reduced him to a spot player.  And the Ray McDonald fiasco also left a black mark on a rookie GM's grade.

2016 was a bit crazy and because we'd ignored it in the 2015 draft we needed an Edge Rusher and talent was very thin at that position.  Post Fox and with a little more cap to pursue a better FA we may have passed on Floyd who I did not want us to draft as an Edge Rusher for all of the reasons which eventually proved accurate.  As an OLB he would have been a decent late 1st early 2nd round pick but never came close to living up to his worth as a top 10 pick.  But that draft also brought Whitehair, Bush, Howard, DH-C and Kwiatkoski who have all proven their worth in the NFL.  That's six keepers out of nine picks.

2016 FA brought us Hicks and Trevathan, Massie and Jerrell Freeman.   IMHO both Hicks and DT have given us production equivalent to that of 1st round picks and Massie while unspectacular has been reasonably steady and available.  He's about what most any OT drafted in the middle rounds can be expected to be.  Freeman, like McPhee, did give us one good year but couldn't stay off the "juice" and suspensions ended his career.   So I'd rate 2016 as at least a +.5 if not a +1.0.

To date I can't really dispute 2017s minus grade.  The offseason acquisitions were a nightmare made even worse by Cutler's departure following his estrangement from Fox the previous fall.  But maybe the biggest mistake was made by GMcC and Teddy Bears with their insistence Fox be retained despite his 4-12 season.  I don't believe Pace was out to intentionally sabotage Fox but I do believe his major plans were for the post Fox era knowing he'd be firing him after the season finished.  Much of what had been gained via rebuilding was worth zip as long as Fox remained HC and IMHO the 2017 offseason was a by product of that.

I can't think of a single thing right now that could convince me Mitch Trubisky will ever be worthy of being the #2 overall pick but he still has a chance of becoming an above average NFL QB if he can continue to mature mentally and become more consistent.  It's really Eddie Jackson who saves this draft from being rated much lower since he plays as well as any 1st round pick we might have made and Tarik Cohen is a nice bonus who simply needs to be schemed to be more productive offensively.

IMHO 2018/2019 was where Paced turned the corner and we finally could turn our backs on the Fox era.

We can start with the hiring of Matt Nagy and a number of his staff who still remain.  Then with the signing of ARob and a slick move in FA to keep Kyle Fuller from going to GB.  Others like Burton and Gabriel produced less than expected but the trade which brought Khalil Mack was when Pace showed he had brass balls and also kept Mack from signing with GB.  Six of our seven draft picks are one the 53 man roster four of them as starters.  Can't do much better than that.

The price to acquire Mack was high but getting a 2nd round 2020 pick back which was used to draft Cole Kmet who was ranked as the top TE in the 2020 draft in reality means that in exchange for a 2019 1st and 3rd and a 2020 1st and 6th we got both Mack and Kmet and an OL in 7th round pick Hambright who made the final roster. I don't think anyone should feel that we haven't done quite well for having made the trade.  We also recovered that 2019 3rd and drafted Montgomery.  +1.5 for both years.

2020 can't really be judges fairly yet but if we start with the revisions to the coaching staff so far it looks like a major positive.  Six of our seven picks are on the 53 man roster with both Johnson and Mooney showing up well so far and Kmet seeing some snaps.  The bigger issue will come later as we evaluate those UFAs we lost vs who we gained or kept and of course there's the trade for Foles as well. While keeping DT over Kwit and KPL may prove to be a mistake otherwise I'd have to call 2020 a positive so far as well.

Guess I'm a little more lenient grader of Pace than others may be if only when compared to others he's at least approached Jerry Vainisi territory and improving steadily since 2017.