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A LOOK AT A POST QUINTRICIA LIONS


Karnage84

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After being the Lions coach, here is where JC went:

2018: Was not hired in NFL. Consultant for XFL

2019 Season: Interviewed by Green Bay (Matt Lafleur), New York Jets (Adam Gase) and Cleveland Browns (Freddie Kitchens) for HC position. Wasn't hired. He was brought on as the Dolphins QB coach. Stepped down due to health reasons. Was not retained by Miami.

2020: Not in the NFL

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Playoff Record: 2-4 (0.333); 1 SB appearance - with Peyton Manning (IND - 2009); 3 WC Losses (IND - 2010); (DET - 2014 and 2016). Caldwell was also 26-63 as HC of Wake Forest from 1993 - 2000. 

Based on the bolded part, we would likely have been looking for a new HC for the 2020 season. Guys that were hired are:

- Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland)

- Joe Judge (New York Giants)

- Matt Rhule (Carolina)

- Ron Rivera (Washington)

- Mike McCarthy (Dallas)

 

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12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

After being the Lions coach, here is where JC went:

2018: Was not hired in NFL. Consultant for XFL

2019 Season: Interviewed by Green Bay (Matt Lafleur), New York Jets (Adam Gase) and Cleveland Browns (Freddie Kitchens) for HC position. Wasn't hired. He was brought on as the Dolphins QB coach. Stepped down due to health reasons. Was not retained by Miami.

2020: Not in the NFL

___ 

Playoff Record: 2-4 (0.333); 1 SB appearance - with Peyton Manning (IND - 2009); 3 WC Losses (IND - 2010); (DET - 2014 and 2016). Caldwell was also 26-63 as HC of Wake Forest from 1993 - 2000. 

Based on the bolded part, we would likely have been looking for a new HC for the 2020 season. Guys that were hired are:

- Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland)

- Joe Judge (New York Giants)

- Matt Rhule (Carolina)

- Ron Rivera (Washington)

- Mike McCarthy (Dallas)

 

My point (with evidence): Caldwell is a very good to great QB coach and an above average HC. However, he was not going to take the team over the hump. Even if the regular season record for 2018 and maybe 2019 would have been a touch better. As for 2020, we would be sitting here in year 1 of a new HC who has just stepped into things with COVID, shortened off-season, etc. 

You can pine for the days of Caldwell's past but they would have been limited and arguably not much different than the previous years results. Philly was the 6th seed with a 9-7 season against a 12-4 Chicago Bears. Over the period of 2016 - 2018, we were 2-4 against the Bears. At best, we're probably looking at another Wild Card Loss (and to a division rival) in 2018. 

Caldwell stepped down on July 13, 2019 from the Dolphins. So we would have been looking at either making a quick hire and/or finding an interim coach for 2019 with a full fledged search for 2020. Neither scenario would be ideal and set up the team for success. Assuming that the 2017 coaching staff was retained, either Ron Prince (Asst HC - no HC experience), Teryl Austin (DC - no HC experience) or Al Golden (TE's - HC at Temple and Miami) are likely candidates. Unlikely they would have exceeded Patricia's 3-13, especially with Stafford being injured for most of the season.

Maybe Quinn came in and wanted to hire his buddy. Maybe Quinn did make the wrong move in not retaining Caldwell. In either case, the Detroit Lions would not be in much of a different scenario right now if he had retained Caldwell instead of hiring Patricia. 

 

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In terms of Quinn, let's look at his draft vs pre-draft consensus (https://zonecoverage.com/2018/minnesota-vikings-news/draft-guide-arif-hasans-consensus-board/)

2018 DRAFT

1 - Pick 20: Frank Ragnow, OC (Consenus #42, #2 Position) = +22

2 - Pick 43: Kerryon Johnson, RB (Consensus #59, #6 position) = +16

3 - Pick 82: Tracy Walker, S (Consensus #280, #25 Position) = +198

4 - Pick 114: Da'Shawn Hand, DE (Consensus #95, #2 Position) = - 19

5 - Pick 153: Tyrell Crosby, OT (Consensus #49, #4 Position) = -104

7 - Pick 237: Nick Bawden, FB (Consensus #297, #4 Position) = - 60

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2019 Lions Draft vs TDN's Consensus Big Board (5 Analysts)

(Can't find another consensus board that isn't for a paid site - The Athletic) https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/tdn-big-board--top-300

1 - Pick #8: TJ Hockenson, TE (Consensus #8, #2 Position) = 0

2 - Pick #43: Jahlani Tavai, LB (Consensus #157) = +114

3 - Pick #81: Will Harris, S (Consensus #130) = +49

4 - Pick #117: Austin Bryant, DE (Consensus #223) = +106

5 - Pick #146: Amani Oruwariye, CB (Consensus #25) = - 121

6 - Pick #184: Travis Fulgham, WR (Consensus #251) = +67

6 - Pick #186: Ty Johnson, RB (Consensus #235) = +49

7 - Pick #224: Isaac Nauta, TE (Consensus #161) = -63

7 - Pick #229: PJ Johnson, DT (Consensus # Not in 300*) = +71*

 

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13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Maybe I'm actually @TL-TwoWinsAway but just logging in under a different name (*playing dramatic music* duh, duh duhhhhh)

You wouldn’t be the first, anyone else old enough to remember Bucky?  He got caught doing that.  Hopefully enough time has passed but I remember the Mods would ban you for even mentioning his name after that. 

Edited by BigC421/
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1 minute ago, BigC421/ said:

You wouldn’t be the first, anyone else old enough to remember Bucky?  He got caught doing that.  Hopefully enough time has passed but I remember the Mods would ban you for even mentioning his name after that. 

I wasn't around for that.. and no, TL and I are two very different people in two different countries. 

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2020 DETROIT LIONS DRAFT

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/pfn-big-board-top-300-consensus-2020-nfl-draft/ 

1 - Pick #3 - Jeffrey Okudah, CB (Consensus #2) = - 1

2 - Pick #35 - D'Andre Swift, RB (Consensus #20) = - 15

3 - Pick #67 - Julian Okwara, DE (Consensus #45) = -22

3 - Pick #75 - Jonah Jackson, OG (Consensus #151) = + 76

4 - Pick # 151 - Logan Stenberg, OG (Consensus # 162) = + 11

5 - Pick #166 - Quintez Cephus, WR (Consensus #155) = - 11

5 - Pick #172 - Jason Huntley, RB (Consensus # Not in top 300) = + 128*

6 - Pick #197 = John Penisini, DT (Consensus # 214) = + 17

7 - Pick #235 - Jashon Cornell, DE (Consensus # Not in top 300) = + 65

Edited by Karnage84
Updated to a Top 300 Consensu Big Board
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19 minutes ago, BigC421/ said:

I wasn’t really making any honest accusations the two of you just amuse me with your ability to make excuses for this franchise.  It’s all in good fun

I don't make excuses. My positions are pretty clear.

- Jim Caldwell is an average coach. He is "Lions good" which isn't and wasn't going to get it done. It was the right thing to move on from him and had we kept him, we would not be in much of a different position

- Any coach should be given 3 off-seasons to fulfill their vision for their team unless there's a complete meltdown and they go 0-16. With forward progress, year 5 is another benchmark on whether they are now a playoff and/or SB contender. If not, it's likely time to find someone else

Ultimately, I have practiced patience and allowed the process to unfold. Now that it has, the clear direction is that Patricia and possibly Quinn aren't the guys to get it done. They are linked but I would still want to look at both guys individually. Just because I didn't want to fire Matt Patricia on the first day of his hiring doesn't mean that I'm making excuses. 

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't make excuses. My positions are pretty clear.

- Jim Caldwell is an average coach. He is "Lions good" which isn't and wasn't going to get it done. It was the right thing to move on from him and had we kept him, we would not be in much of a different position

- Any coach should be given 3 off-seasons to fulfill their vision for their team unless there's a complete meltdown and they go 0-16. With forward progress, year 5 is another benchmark on whether they are now a playoff and/or SB contender. If not, it's likely time to find someone else

Ultimately, I have practiced patience and allowed the process to unfold. Now that it has, the clear direction is that Patricia and possibly Quinn aren't the guys to get it done. They are linked but I would still want to look at both guys individually. Just because I didn't want to fire Matt Patricia on the first day of his hiring doesn't mean that I'm making excuses. 

I’m pretty much in the same boat. Although, I think bq is the worst of the two.

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13 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't make excuses. My positions are pretty clear.

- Jim Caldwell is an average coach. He is "Lions good" which isn't and wasn't going to get it done. It was the right thing to move on from him and had we kept him, we would not be in much of a different position

- Any coach should be given 3 off-seasons to fulfill their vision for their team unless there's a complete meltdown and they go 0-16. With forward progress, year 5 is another benchmark on whether they are now a playoff and/or SB contender. If not, it's likely time to find someone else

Ultimately, I have practiced patience and allowed the process to unfold. Now that it has, the clear direction is that Patricia and possibly Quinn aren't the guys to get it done. They are linked but I would still want to look at both guys individually. Just because I didn't want to fire Matt Patricia on the first day of his hiring doesn't mean that I'm making excuses. 

Any coach that fails in years one and two is likely to be a failure in general.  Of course there are outliers like Kyle Shanahan last year but even he is struggling hard with some key injuries this year.  Good coaches show up in games, even if you don't win.  You see progress, you see them battle, and eventually they get over the hump.  You have to be innovative in the NFL and you have to not shun your stars because of ego (Patricia, Gase, O'Brien, McDaniels) oddly enough all are NE folks or Gase who worked under McDaniels in Denver.  Patricia took a 9-7 team and made us a 6 win team.  then he took us lower without Stafford but also had one of the worst defenses in the history of the league.  Then he ran our best defensive player out of town.  I agree a coach should have three years if they are trending in the right direction but why waste time if they are not.  I hate the Browns but at least they spotted failures early with Kitchens when they gave him a talented team and look where they are now.  We had a pretty talented roster and just needed a couple pieces.  Honestly most NFL rosters are just a couple pieces and a HC away so when you fail for two/three years, you have to move on. 

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10 hours ago, LionArkie said:

I’m pretty much in the same boat. Although, I think bq is the worst of the two.

The problem that I have in separating them out is:

- Record under Caldwell was 18-14

- He's really hit on some mid-round guys (A'Shawn, Glasgow, Dahl in '16; Kenny G in '17; Walker, Hand, Crosby in '18; Amani in '19; Jackson and Cephus in '20).

- He's also made some poorer picks in the upper rounds (Davis, Teez, Hock at #8, Tavai). The key to a good GM is getting it right with your top picks as well as hitting on some gems and good depth pieces with your lower end picks. 

- He generally does a really good job at structuring contracts and managing the cap. I looked at the Saints roster yesterday. That is a mess and it'll get worse next year while the Lions are in good shape and can roll some cap space over from this year to help even more

- He's given hefty contracts to former Patriots guys (even if well structured) that aren't playing to the standard of their contract value. I understood why they were brought on (position needs, scheme needs) but it has to work for people to buy in that they were the right moves

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19 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Any coach that fails in years one and two is likely to be a failure in general.  Of course there are outliers like Kyle Shanahan last year but even he is struggling hard with some key injuries this year.  Good coaches show up in games, even if you don't win.  You see progress, you see them battle, and eventually they get over the hump.  You have to be innovative in the NFL and you have to not shun your stars because of ego (Patricia, Gase, O'Brien, McDaniels) oddly enough all are NE folks or Gase who worked under McDaniels in Denver.  Patricia took a 9-7 team and made us a 6 win team.  then he took us lower without Stafford but also had one of the worst defenses in the history of the league.  Then he ran our best defensive player out of town.  I agree a coach should have three years if they are trending in the right direction but why waste time if they are not.  I hate the Browns but at least they spotted failures early with Kitchens when they gave him a talented team and look where they are now.  We had a pretty talented roster and just needed a couple pieces.  Honestly most NFL rosters are just a couple pieces and a HC away so when you fail for two/three years, you have to move on. 

I mostly agree with you here. There should be indicators in year two which we didn't have, buuuutttt losing Stafford makes it really hard to know what you have and evaluate accordingly.  Also, the drop off in play with Snacks last year didn't help matters either for the defense.  MP did show when he had the right pieces in place he could get a top 10 defense.  I think not enough is being made about this.  Does this overshadow the locker room issues? I don't think it does. I think MP is not a good coach and is made to look worse due to the roster BQ has given him. I also think MP isn't helping  BQ at all with running players off.

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