Week 4 GDT: Bills (3-0) @ Raiders (2-1)

[Jerry]

9 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Record when the opposing team scores 30+ points.

Mahomes: 4-7

Rodgers: 12-33

Watson: 2-11

Wilson: 7-16

Prescott: 3-8

Jackson: 0-3 

Brady: 17-30

Carr: 7-31

 

It's so crazy how Carr has literally 9 games less than Brady where his defense gave up 30+ points and he's literally played roughly 12 years less (Brady lost for that one season).  Just insane.  I wonder if our defense will ever be ranked in the top 10.

[holyghost]

39 minutes ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

You're dreaming if you think the Raiders can get a better QB then Carr. 

 

Certainly not midseason.

I can't understand what you're saying though. Other teams have better QBs than Carr. How did they get them, insanity? We can't beat teams with better QBs unless we have the better QB. So no way we can get better than Carr, but 10-15 teams already are with more in the way - as Herbert and Burrow are now looking like they might have better trajectories going forward. And we can never get to where they are... I'll tell you straight out we might have been better off with Brady or Newton, the returned draft capital for Carr, the cap space. So right there, we'd have a better QB than Carr and they were ripe for the plucking this very offseason. 

Who is our developmental QB, who are we drafting, what is the plan to be better here? No plan. Carr or bust, which means bust.

Shifting to Mayock, this past draft is looking to be a useless class for us. Too early to tell if it's because of no preseason. But overall Mayock is definitely not killing it. We're the same dumb middling team we've already been, at best. At worst, we're another injury or two from picking top 10, again.

[Jerry]

1 minute ago, holyghost said:

Certainly not midseason.

I can't understand what you're saying though. Other teams have better QBs than Carr. How did they get them, insanity? We can't beat teams with better QBs unless we have the better QB. So no way we can get better than Carr, but 10-15 teams already are with more in the way - as Herbert and Burrow are now looking like they might have better trajectories going forward. And we can never get to where they are... I'll tell you straight out we might have been better off with Brady or Newton, the returned draft capital for Carr, the cap space. So right there, we'd have a better QB than Carr and they were ripe for the plucking this very offseason. 

Who is our developmental QB, who are we drafting, what is the plan to be better here? No plan. Carr or bust, which means bust.

Shifting to Mayock, this past draft is looking to be a useless class for us. Too early to tell if it's because of no preseason. But overall Mayock is definitely not killing it. We're the same dumb middling team we've already been, at best. At worst, we're another injury or two from picking top 10, again.

So a top 5 defense wouldn't help us at all?  Crappy QBs have won the SB.  The bolded isn't always true.

[agarcia34]

Just now, Jerry said:

So a top 5 defense wouldn't help us at all?  Crappy QBs have won the SB.  The bolded isn't always true.

With the way football is headed now and where it’s going. No. If that was the case the Niners would have won last year. You need ELITE QB play. The days of winning with a QB being a game manager are over. 

 

[Bitty 2.0]

1 hour ago, holyghost said:

Certainly not midseason.

I can't understand what you're saying though. Other teams have better QBs than Carr. How did they get them, insanity? We can't beat teams with better QBs unless we have the better QB. So no way we can get better than Carr, but 10-15 teams already are with more in the way - as Herbert and Burrow are now looking like they might have better trajectories going forward. And we can never get to where they are... I'll tell you straight out we might have been better off with Brady or Newton, the returned draft capital for Carr, the cap space. So right there, we'd have a better QB than Carr and they were ripe for the plucking this very offseason. 

Who is our developmental QB, who are we drafting, what is the plan to be better here? No plan. Carr or bust, which means bust.

Shifting to Mayock, this past draft is looking to be a useless class for us. Too early to tell if it's because of no preseason. But overall Mayock is definitely not killing it. We're the same dumb middling team we've already been, at best. At worst, we're another injury or two from picking top 10, again.

I'm saying that it's a crapshoot. How many quarterbacks drafted in the last 7 years are actually better than Carr?

[holyghost]

2 hours ago, Jerry said:

So a top 5 defense wouldn't help us at all?  Crappy QBs have won the SB.  The bolded isn't always true.

Top 5 defense..... Yeesh. Do we look anywhere close to a top 5 defense? How long has it been since a crappy QB won the Super Bowl? Even Joe Flacco 9 years ago with an amazing defense couldn't be considered a crappy QB at the time, he was hot during the playoffs. You have to go back to Trent Dilfer 18 years ago, with an amazing defense. So yeah, you'r right, crappy QBs have won the Super Bowl before a few times with amazing defenses. 95% of the rest of the time HOF QBs win the Super Bowl. Great odds.

So all we need is a historically great defense to put around Carr to win one Super Bowl. Which Oakland/LV hasn't put on the field in 40 years. And can never do again because it's no longer about the Oakland Raiders aggression of the 70s, it's about incredible discipline, team play, and amazing talent. All that to prop up Carr's limitations.

[holyghost]

51 minutes ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

I'm saying that it's a crapshoot. How many quarterbacks drafted in the last 7 years are actually better than Carr?

Jeez, do I really have to go through the draft just to argue this? Chances are good he meets a QB better than him more than half the time. Which means we probably lose because none of the rest of our team can shoulder the load either. Game winning teams make game winning plays. Who do we have to do that, Jacobs and that's it?

Edited October 5, 2020 by holyghost

[BackinBlack]

6 minutes ago, holyghost said:

Top 5 defense..... Yeesh. Do we look anywhere close to a top 5 defense? How long has it been since a crappy QB won the Super Bowl?

well id say you could argue Nick Foles, Peyton manning (den), and Flacco.
but those def arent Crappy QBs. 
But I think Carr is a better player than they are (not manning in general obviously but at that stage in his career)

[holyghost]

3 minutes ago, BackinBlack said:

well id say you could argue Nick Foles, Peyton manning (den), and Flacco.
but those def arent Crappy QBs. 
But I think Carr is a better player than they are (not manning in general obviously but at that stage in his career)

Alright, so fleshing this out -

That's 4 in more than 20 years. 3 of the 4 had literally the best defense in football that year. 20% of the time, average QBs won the Super Bowl. 5% of the time it was without the best defense in football. And Nick Foles was really good in the playoffs in what was an all around team effort. 

Peyton Manning, arm deficiencies aside was NOT a bad QB at all. Come on now. And Flacco like I said, had a great playoff run. All in all how do these odds look for Carr when guys like Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers, Jackson are on the opposing sidelines? Especially in the playoffs. And it won't be long before you can add Allen, possibly Burrow, Herbert, to the list. Among others like Brady, Newton, Garoppolo, and others who can likely beat Carr with better play and better overall teams.

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

I'm saying that it's a crapshoot. How many quarterbacks drafted in the last 7 years are actually better than Carr?

Going back to 2010 there have been 28 QB's selected in the 1st round. And I'd only take 6 over Carr for sure: Murray, Allen, Jackson, Watson, and Mahomes. And then maybe take 4 others over him: Goff, Wentz, Newton, Tannehill. 

[drfrey13]

Peyton Manning had to play game manager in 2015 because his arm was shot but he was a good enough QB to not lose it.  

Flacco after his rookie and 2nd year was a beast in the playoffs.  In the 10 playoff games his stats are as good if not better per game than Carr in 2016.  His Super Bowl run he averaged 286 yards 2.75 TDs and 0 Ints per game.

Nick Foles in 2017 threw for almost 1000 yards 6 TDs and 1 Int in 3 playoff games.  All the TDs came in the NFC championship and the Super Bowl.

So now we are left with Dilfer and Manning.  Dilfer had arguably the best defense of all time and Manning had a surrounding cast the allowed Osweiler to 5-2 as a starter that year.  This does not mean Carr can not win a Super Bowl but shows that it might be easier to just get a better QB.  I would like to see how well he can play when everyone is healthy but I think we can all agree that we are not 100% satisfied with a QB that needs his environment to be optimal.

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

Peyton Manning had to play game manager in 2015 because his arm was shot but he was a good enough QB to not lose it.  

Flacco after his rookie and 2nd year was a beast in the playoffs.  In the 10 playoff games his stats are as good if not better per game than Carr in 2016.  His Super Bowl run he averaged 286 yards 2.75 TDs and 0 Ints per game.

Nick Foles in 2017 threw for almost 1000 yards 6 TDs and 1 Int in 3 playoff games.  All the TDs came in the NFC championship and the Super Bowl.

So now we are left with Dilfer and Manning.  Dilfer had arguably the best defense of all time and Manning had a surrounding cast the allowed Osweiler to 5-2 as a starter that year.  This does not mean Carr can not win a Super Bowl but shows that it might be easier to just get a better QB.  I would like to see how well he can play when everyone is healthy but I think we can all agree that we are not 100% satisfied with a QB that needs his environment to be optimal.

If you look back at the last 7 Super Bowl champions none of them have allowed more than 20.5 ppg (18.0 avg) and they've all had 23+ takeaways (28.0 avg). 

I'd say Carr is more than capable of playing at a similar level to Brady ('15, '17, '19), Foles ('18), Manning ('16), and Wilson ('14). None of those guys were particularly dynamic they just made enough plays and had elite defenses to lean on. 

[Jerry]

59 minutes ago, holyghost said:

Alright, so fleshing this out -

That's 4 in more than 20 years. 3 of the 4 had literally the best defense in football that year. 20% of the time, average QBs won the Super Bowl. 5% of the time it was without the best defense in football. And Nick Foles was really good in the playoffs in what was an all around team effort. 

Peyton Manning, arm deficiencies aside was NOT a bad QB at all. Come on now. And Flacco like I said, had a great playoff run. All in all how do these odds look for Carr when guys like Mahomes, Watson, Wilson, Rodgers, Jackson are on the opposing sidelines? Especially in the playoffs. And it won't be long before you can add Allen, possibly Burrow, Herbert, to the list. Among others like Brady, Newton, Garoppolo, and others who can likely beat Carr with better play and better overall teams.

For what its worth, Watson is on a 0-4 team with his "elite QB play" and Lamar Jackson was stomped by the Chief's defense.  Rodgers is playing on a team with a running game and a defense, Mahomes and Wilson are the best in the game, Mahomes has the best offense in the NFL.  You listed 5 QBs out of 32.  Regarding your Peyton Manning comment, he was benched that season, remember?  Flacco had a great playoff run on a team that got him there with their run game and defense.  Both those teams, the Broncos and the Ravens, were IMO, launched into the superbowl because two hall of famers were retiring.  Both of those defenses were going to carry Peyton Manning and Ray Lewis to the championship and win them those games.  Players play hard for hall of famers, always kind of noticed that.  Manning's limp noodle arm (at that time) had very little to do with that win in comparison to Von Miller's out of this world game he had against the Panthers. 

Either way, we need a better defense.  Defense should be addressed and built into a top 15 unit.  I don't get why our offense is harped on so hard when our defense might as well sit the game.

[drfrey13]

44 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

If you look back at the last 7 Super Bowl champions none of them have allowed more than 20.5 ppg (18.0 avg) and they've all had 23+ takeaways (28.0 avg). 

I'd say Carr is more than capable of playing at a similar level to Brady ('15, '17, '19), Foles ('18), Manning ('16), and Wilson ('14). None of those guys were particularly dynamic they just made enough plays and had elite defenses to lean on. 

My point was about which is easier to obtain.  Improving the pieces around the QB or improving the QB.  I have been saying it since 2017 that we might need to go a different direction at the QB position.  Carr still does stuff that bothers me but has improved in other areas.  I just think we might be spinning our wheels with Carr if our goal is to win a championship.

[drfrey13]

14 minutes ago, Jerry said:

Either way, we need a better defense.  Defense should be addressed and built into a top 15 unit.  I don't get why our offense is harped on so hard when our defense might as well sit the game.

I do not think anyone is happy with the defense and the holes are obvious.  I think the offense catches a lot of criticism because they are suppose to be our strength and the primary reason we gave a head coach $100 million over ten years.  If we gave that to BB I would probably criticize the defense a lot more than the offense.  We need to start by getting a good DC to see what we have on defense but I do not think Gruden wants a top tier defense.  It would be a shot to his ego if his DC could carry the team and the offense was not the reason we won.