QB 2022 and beyond

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Some comparably awful starts to the season on paper since 1990 (1st 8 games, minimum of 150 pass attempts) for franchise QBs at similar stage in their careers (4th to 10th season in NFL). I did my best to figure out what may have went wrong for these guys. Just some food for thought.... Not many comparisons though. Wentz's start certainly isn't the worst ever (given the previously mentioned parameters, his passer rating ranks 80th worst), but the 79 guys ahead of him are mostly journeymen, QBs who started declining early, and QBs who simply were never that good (Joe Flacco for example).

2020 Carson Wentz (27 years old)

• Numbers:
  • 1,883 yards, 58% completions, 12 TDs, 12 INTs, 73.2 passer rating
  • 7 fumbles (4 lost), 202 rush yards, 5 rush TDs
  • 3-4-1 record, offense averaging 23.3 PPG
  • 2020 league wide passer rating: 94.3

 

2015 Andrew Luck (26 years old)

• Had made pro bowl in his 1st 3 years, looking like he'd become next big thing.
• Numbers:
  • 1,629 yards, 55% completions, 13 TDs, 12 INTs, 71.6 passer rating
  • 3 fumbles (1 lost), 162 rush yards, 0 rush TDs
  • 1-5 record, offense averaging 21.7 PPG
  • 2015 league wide passer rating: 90.2
• Did he get better in 2015?
  • No, missed rest of season.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Yes, came back in 2016 w/ great year.
• What Happened?
  • Hurt his shoulder in week 3. Came back in week 6 but would suffer lacerated kidney that ended season a few weeks later.
  • This shoulder injury would prove to be lingering. He played through it the following season, but would miss entire 2017 due to it.
  • OC Hamilton was fired mid year.

 

2003 Donovan McNabb (26 years old... year #5... Eagles QB...)

• Coming off 3 pro bowls and 2 NFCC appearances
• Numbers:
  • 1,307 yards, 52% completions, 4 TDs, 7 INTs, 61.5 passer rating
  • 9 fumbles (3 lost), 213 rush yards, 0 rush TDs
  • 5-3 record, offense averaging 17.8 PPG
  • 2003 league wide passer rating: 78.3
• Did he get better in 2003?
  • Yes. Over the final 8 games he posted a 98.9 passer rating, didn't fumble a single time, and the offense averaged 29 PPG en route to 7-1 finish, and another NFCC trip.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Yes.
• What Happened?
  • Bad OL play, McNabb was scrambling for life. Sacked 28x (Carson has been sacked 32x fwiw)
  • Weapons were bad, although that was a constant of his entire tenure.
  • Likely just a slump paired w/ poor OL play, in hindsight.

 

2005 Daunte Culpepper (28 years old)

• Fresh off MVP caliber 2004, and was perennial pro bowler
• Numbers: (6.5 games)
  • 1,564 yards, 64% completions, 6 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.0 passer rating
  • 4 fumbles (3 lost), 147 rush yards, 1 rush TD
  • 2-5 record, offense averaging 14.7 PPG
  • 2005 league wide passer rating: 80.1
• Did he get better in 2005?
  • Missed rest of year after tearing up knee.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Nope, was never again a good QB. This is usually attributed to the knee injury.
• What Happened?
  • Randy Moss was traded
  • Poor OL play (sacked 31x)

 

1999 Brett Favre (29 years old)

• 3x MVP between 95-97, arguably best QB in football
• Numbers:
  • 2,055 yards, 54% completions, 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 71.7 passer rating
  • 6 fumbles (3 lost), 59 rush yards, 0 rush TDs
  • 4-4 record, offense averaging 19.1 PPG
  • 1999 league wide passer rating: 77.1 (really was only playing a bit below league average, of course still a huge and unexpected drop off for a 3x MVP)
• Did he get better in 1999?
  • No. He finished the year with only marginally better numbers and Packers went 8-8.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Yes, after another down year in 2000, Favre returned to all-pro status.
• What Happened?
  • Both Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid departed.
  • Favre dealt with a thumb injury all year which he now describes as worst injury of his career.
  • Turnover at interior OL and TE?

 

 

Ironically enough, it's 2003 McNabb who is probably the most comparable and most reason to have some sort of hope. McNabb of course had a substantially better track record than Wentz, w/ no injury history, playoff success and several pro bowls.

[Jroc04]

Good stuff. I’d feel better if we’ve seen some sort of consistency first but through injuries and a revolving door of backup weapons, its hard trusting Wentz will “bounce back”. The biggest indictment to me is that last year, he was arguably in a worse situation and played very well considering. I think it was the best performance of his career everything considered. He’s just not this year. I have a hard time swallowing the fact that he’s so careless with the ball. I wouldn’t mind if he was taking a lot of sacks, quick to leave the pocket, or simply trying to do too much. But he’s just turning the ball over so damn much. It’s the oldest stat in the NFL. You win more times when you turn the ball over less than the other team at a very high rate. I just don’t understand. And he’s already said it again, “I’m not going to change how aggressive I am.”  I love the attitude but it doesn’t have to be deployed every play. He can pick and choose where to extend plays or make risky throws. But running into three defenders and trying to stiff arm his way to a first down, not tucking the ball while being sacked, and throwing chance balls on the opposite side of the 50 and turning the ball over whilst leaving points on the field is just inexcusable. I’m willing to ride with him for the year but things need to improve. Hopefully once we get healthy but I just have no confidence. 

[ninjapirate]

1 hour ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Some comparably awful starts to the season on paper since 1990 (1st 8 games, minimum of 150 pass attempts) for franchise QBs at similar stage in their careers (4th to 10th season in NFL). I did my best to figure out what may have went wrong for these guys. Just some food for thought.... Not many comparisons though. Wentz's start certainly isn't the worst ever (given the previously mentioned parameters, his passer rating ranks 80th worst), but the 79 guys ahead of him are mostly journeymen, QBs who started declining early, and QBs who simply were never that good (Joe Flacco for example).

2020 Carson Wentz (27 years old)

• Numbers:
  • 1,883 yards, 58% completions, 12 TDs, 12 INTs, 73.2 passer rating
  • 7 fumbles (4 lost), 202 rush yards, 5 rush TDs
  • 3-4-1 record, offense averaging 23.3 PPG
  • 2020 league wide passer rating: 94.3

 

2015 Andrew Luck (26 years old)

• Had made pro bowl in his 1st 3 years, looking like he'd become next big thing.
• Numbers:
  • 1,629 yards, 55% completions, 13 TDs, 12 INTs, 71.6 passer rating
  • 3 fumbles (1 lost), 162 rush yards, 0 rush TDs
  • 1-5 record, offense averaging 21.7 PPG
  • 2015 league wide passer rating: 90.2
• Did he get better in 2015?
  • No, missed rest of season.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Yes, came back in 2016 w/ great year.
• What Happened?
  • Hurt his shoulder in week 3. Came back in week 6 but would suffer lacerated kidney that ended season a few weeks later.
  • This shoulder injury would prove to be lingering. He played through it the following season, but would miss entire 2017 due to it.
  • OC Hamilton was fired mid year.

 

2003 Donovan McNabb (26 years old... year #5... Eagles QB...)

• Coming off 3 pro bowls and 2 NFCC appearances
• Numbers:
  • 1,307 yards, 52% completions, 4 TDs, 7 INTs, 61.5 passer rating
  • 9 fumbles (3 lost), 213 rush yards, 0 rush TDs
  • 5-3 record, offense averaging 17.8 PPG
  • 2003 league wide passer rating: 78.3
• Did he get better in 2003?
  • Yes. Over the final 8 games he posted a 98.9 passer rating, didn't fumble a single time, and the offense averaged 29 PPG en route to 7-1 finish, and another NFCC trip.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Yes.
• What Happened?
  • Bad OL play, McNabb was scrambling for life. Sacked 28x (Carson has been sacked 32x fwiw)
  • Weapons were bad, although that was a constant of his entire tenure.
  • Likely just a slump paired w/ poor OL play, in hindsight.

 

2005 Daunte Culpepper (28 years old)

• Fresh off MVP caliber 2004, and was perennial pro bowler
• Numbers: (6.5 games)
  • 1,564 yards, 64% completions, 6 TDs, 12 INTs, 72.0 passer rating
  • 4 fumbles (3 lost), 147 rush yards, 1 rush TD
  • 2-5 record, offense averaging 14.7 PPG
  • 2005 league wide passer rating: 80.1
• Did he get better in 2005?
  • Missed rest of year after tearing up knee.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Nope, was never again a good QB. This is usually attributed to the knee injury.
• What Happened?
  • Randy Moss was traded
  • Poor OL play (sacked 31x)

 

1999 Brett Favre (29 years old)

• 3x MVP between 95-97, arguably best QB in football
• Numbers:
  • 2,055 yards, 54% completions, 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 71.7 passer rating
  • 6 fumbles (3 lost), 59 rush yards, 0 rush TDs
  • 4-4 record, offense averaging 19.1 PPG
  • 1999 league wide passer rating: 77.1 (really was only playing a bit below league average, of course still a huge and unexpected drop off for a 3x MVP)
• Did he get better in 1999?
  • No. He finished the year with only marginally better numbers and Packers went 8-8.
• Did he get better long term?
  • Yes, after another down year in 2000, Favre returned to all-pro status.
• What Happened?
  • Both Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid departed.
  • Favre dealt with a thumb injury all year which he now describes as worst injury of his career.
  • Turnover at interior OL and TE?

 

 

Ironically enough, it's 2003 McNabb who is probably the most comparable and most reason to have some sort of hope. McNabb of course had a substantially better track record than Wentz, w/ no injury history, playoff success and several pro bowls.

I'd actually say that Daunte Culpepper drop off is the most similar one.

[ninjapirate]

1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

Good stuff. I’d feel better if we’ve seen some sort of consistency first but through injuries and a revolving door of backup weapons, its hard trusting Wentz will “bounce back”. The biggest indictment to me is that last year, he was arguably in a worse situation and played very well considering. I think it was the best performance of his career everything considered. He’s just not this year. I have a hard time swallowing the fact that he’s so careless with the ball. I wouldn’t mind if he was taking a lot of sacks, quick to leave the pocket, or simply trying to do too much. But he’s just turning the ball over so damn much. It’s the oldest stat in the NFL. You win more times when you turn the ball over less than the other team at a very high rate. I just don’t understand. And he’s already said it again, “I’m not going to change how aggressive I am.”  I love the attitude but it doesn’t have to be deployed every play. He can pick and choose where to extend plays or make risky throws. But running into three defenders and trying to stiff arm his way to a first down, not tucking the ball while being sacked, and throwing chance balls on the opposite side of the 50 and turning the ball over whilst leaving points on the field is just inexcusable. I’m willing to ride with him for the year but things need to improve. Hopefully once we get healthy but I just have no confidence. 

I don't think weapons is even a good excuse right now. Travis Fulgham is the best receiver he's ever played with and it's not close.

[eagles26]

Someone out there with too much time on their hands should do a study on the impact of having a newborn child on a pro athlete's performance.

Not saying it's the silver bullet explanation, just something else to add to the long list of possible contributors to his implosion.

[ninjapirate]

Just now, eagles26 said:

Someone out there with too much time on their hands should do a study on the impact of having a newborn child on a pro athlete's performance.

Not saying it's the silver bullet explanation, just something else to add to the long list of possible contributors to his implosion.

Brian Dawkins had an off year after his twins were born but he had to stay up all night to make sure one of his daughters kept breathing and would have to rub her foot to keep her breathing. So that one makes sense. Carson should have his mom down from dakota in his large estate and never have to see the child.

[Nabbs4u]

2 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

The biggest indictment to me is that last year, he was arguably in a worse situation and played very well considering.

 

Was he? He had most of his OL, TE's and RB's for the majority of the season. The only singular position you can say is improved this year, is WR. However that improvement is still littered with Rookies and inexperienced 2nd year players. 

Doug's last PE.com PC around the 16 minute mark explains a lot of it.

[RandyMossIsBoss]

1 hour ago, ninjapirate said:

I don't think weapons is even a good excuse right now. Travis Fulgham is the best receiver he's ever played with and it's not close.

Yeah it's not, Fulgham has emerged as a legitimately good WR. Reagor, Ward, Hightower round out what is at least a respectable group. Not saying it's even top 20, but it's not comparable to the WRs he was playing w/ last year or early this year. 

[EAGLES3658]

2 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

 

Was he? He had most of his OL, TE's and RB's for the majority of the season. The only singular position you can say is improved this year, is WR. However that improvement is still littered with Rookies and inexperienced 2nd year players. 

Doug's last PE.com PC around the 16 minute mark explains a lot of it.

Yes, the offense was awful around Wentz last year. Not a single threat to get open down the field. Defenses didn't respect any WR on the Eagles and they had no speed whatsoever. Defenses could sit on short routes because they knew no one was beating them deep. That is why the few successful drives always seemed to be 12+ plays since the team had to nickel and dime its way down the field. I'd say these offense is much more talented this year, Wentz seems to be the one holding it back.

[Nabbs4u]

1 hour ago, EAGLES3658 said:

Yes, the offense was awful around Wentz last year. Not a single threat to get open down the field. Defenses didn't respect any WR on the Eagles and they had no speed whatsoever. Defenses could sit on short routes because they knew no one was beating them deep. That is why the few successful drives always seemed to be 12+ plays since the team had to nickel and dime its way down the field. I'd say these offense is much more talented this year, Wentz seems to be the one holding it back.

You said "Offense", Not WR's. There's a difference.  

The overall "Offense " which included  Ertz, Goedert and Sanders as weapons are far better options then Rodgers, Croom and Scott? We weren't missing 4 starters on the OL like we are currently. That's 7 players of the 11?

All of these supposed deep threats are doing is having Doug over compensating for last years struggles. Constantly throwing deep routes rather then the short quick passing attack that gets the ball into playmakers hands and out of Wentz's. 

They even showed a stat Sunday night comparing Wentz numbers under 20 yds  (2 TD) and over which included (2 INT's). You pointed out the 12+ play drives but are ignoring the fact both TD drives Sunday, were methodical 8 to 10 play type drives. It's what works.

Yes the WR are absolutely better then the crap thrown out there the last 4 gms of the 2019 season. However the rest of the supporting cast, is not. 

Somehow 🙏🙏 give me Lane, Isaac, Sanders, Ertz and Goedert back for the 2nd 1 /2 of the season and I'll take my chances. If Wentz is still playing this poorly, I'll happily jump on the he sucks wagon.

That's not even including Alshon or DeSean which let's be real are still better options or at worst takes attention away from others as decoys over say....Burnett, JJ or Watkins. 

This offense is Fulgham,  🙏 Hightower can catch 1 bomb and Scott. Hardly call that a powerhouse of options.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Nabbs4u

[aussie_eagle]

Why does he feel the need to play hero ball every single down? Look at how Brady plays....Sometimes a field goal attempt is fine

[Nabbs4u]

7 minutes ago, aussie_eagle said:

Why does he feel the need to play hero ball every single down? Look at how Brady plays....Sometimes a field goal attempt is fine

Wonder if Brady was playing for field goal attempts 15 years ago? I mean he did have Vinatieri?

With age ,comes wisdom.

Without an ounce of athleticism you rely on intelligence. 

The difference between the GOAT and the masses.

[Art_Vandalay]

3 hours ago, aussie_eagle said:

Why does he feel the need to play hero ball every single down? Look at how Brady plays....Sometimes a field goal attempt is fine

This is what worries me. You'd expect this from a 1st or 2nd year player. He's been in the league long enough to understand the concept of living to play another down. Especially against a Ben DiNucci-led team that can't move the ball. If there was ever a game where overall sentiment should've been "We will win if we don't make any dumb mistakes", that was the game.

The play where Carson escapes to the left where none of his receivers are, then proceeds to just effing stand there for a few seconds before getting stripped sacked is the dumbest thing I've seen a QB do in recent memory.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Art_Vandalay

[EAGLES3658]

8 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

You said "Offense", Not WR's. There's a difference.  

The overall "Offense " which included  Ertz, Goedert and Sanders as weapons are far better options then Rodgers, Croom and Scott? We weren't missing 4 starters on the OL like we are currently. That's 7 players of the 11?

All of these supposed deep threats are doing is having Doug over compensating for last years struggles. Constantly throwing deep routes rather then the short quick passing attack that gets the ball into playmakers hands and out of Wentz's. 

They even showed a stat Sunday night comparing Wentz numbers under 20 yds  (2 TD) and over which included (2 INT's). You pointed out the 12+ play drives but are ignoring the fact both TD drives Sunday, were methodical 8 to 10 play type drives. It's what works.

Yes the WR are absolutely better then the crap thrown out there the last 4 gms of the 2019 season. However the rest of the supporting cast, is not. 

Somehow 🙏🙏 give me Lane, Isaac, Sanders, Ertz and Goedert back for the 2nd 1 /2 of the season and I'll take my chances. If Wentz is still playing this poorly, I'll happily jump on the he sucks wagon.

That's not even including Alshon or DeSean which let's be real are still better options or at worst takes attention away from others as decoys over say....Burnett, JJ or Watkins. 

This offense is Fulgham,  🙏 Hightower can catch 1 bomb and Scott. Hardly call that a powerhouse of options.

Do you forget what happened last year? It was a struggle to get any breathing room at all. When there was no speed and the only threat was Ertz and he isn't doing anything past 10 yards down the field, it felt like every yard was a grind. Defenses played up and didn't respect the deep ball at all. WRs got little separation. You are just throwing names out there at this point. Be objective, stop looking at the names and look at the play. All things considering, after the Washington game, the o-line has played as well as you could expect them. Wentz just holds the ball all day. It is year 5 in the same system for Wentz now, it is time to stop blaming everyone else around him but him. Wentz needs to be held accountable. Even if you solely judged Wentz on plays where pass protection was great, he has been awful. Bad decision after bad decision or he will hold the ball for 5 seconds until he takes a sack. He has been flat out bad this year and it isn't because the rest of the team. 

[Nabbs4u]

Never once have I said Wentz isnt accountable for his play. However pretending the endless carrosal of ever changing players isn't,  hasn't and wouldn't effect a QB and his overall play is a Joke!

We're not talking about a player here or a player there but every single positional starter  on offense but Jason Kelce and some of their back ups too!!! You do that to any other QB including everyones QB Gods they want to pimp in Rodgers, Mahomes and Brady and their play too will suffer.

He didn't go from throwing INT on a yearly basis like Rodgers, Young and Brady to Winston Justice over night for no reason. 

I'll revisit this in 8 weeks if Wentz survives that long and playing this bad. Which I doubt. Then we can watch Doug simplify and dumb down his  Offense for Hurts to succeed,  but not Wentz. It's like watching Andy/Donovan all over again.