So it begins, do the Bears draft a 1st round QB in 2021?

[WindyCity]

1 off playoff appearance or possibly set yourself up for multiple playoff runs?

I am a long term investor. Lose out, get the QB who can make you a perennial contender and not a flash in the pan.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 hours ago, Bfan said:

Seeing as how I don't do a lot of research and mainly drop in here to read everyone's opinions I have a question, and it may seem like a dumb question but it is an honest one.  If the top offensive tackle in the draft is still available when the Bears draft but only the forth or fifth best quarterback is still available would you still draft the quarterback in the first?

I ask this as decent left tackles are never available in free agency so if a QB is drafted first either Leno or some aging vet will be on the left and maybe if we are lucky someone at least a little better then Massie will be on the right.  Now you put a rookie QB in there I am afraid that even if he survives he will get broken.

I think this would all depend on how the staff feel about each QB. 

If they like a QB then yes, you take him. But I don't wanna see them trading up and/or reaching on one either.

So unless a QB falls in their lap that they really like then I would prefer OT and then see if we can get lucky in the 2nd. 

We have to draft a QB regardless. 

It's going to be an interesting draft for sure.

Leno is done. Massie was actually playing well before he got hurt (again) but he's 32 and not reliable anymore so needs to be replaced. Idefi has been fine but he's not irreplaceable either. We also need a 3 down back and another TE to replace Graham. Oh and possibly another #1 WR to replace Arob too-- Miller and Mooney aren't ready for that role yet. 

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

As long as we have a chance at the playoffs, I want to win every game. The second that is eliminated, I'd rather lose every game for draft position.

Same. And if you look at the NFC right now alot of them have flaws too. 

[WindyCity]

Making the playoffs this season would be a disaster as dumb as that sounds.

Likely buys Pace and Nagy more time and we know one, or both, of them is not good. At a minimum we know they aren’t good together.

We would also be way out of range for a top QB or even a move for a top QB.

 

We would be treading water.

[JAF-N72EX]

12 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

1 off playoff appearance or possibly set yourself up for multiple playoff runs?

I am a long term investor. Lose out, get the QB who can make you a perennial contender and not a flash in the pan.

Or. We miss out on a opportunity in the playoffs AND get a QB that puts us behind again for the next 4 years. 

[Epyon]

2 hours ago, Bfan said:

Seeing as how I don't do a lot of research and mainly drop in here to read everyone's opinions I have a question, and it may seem like a dumb question but it is an honest one.  If the top offensive tackle in the draft is still available when the Bears draft but only the forth or fifth best quarterback is still available would you still draft the quarterback in the first?

I ask this as decent left tackles are never available in free agency so if a QB is drafted first either Leno or some aging vet will be on the left and maybe if we are lucky someone at least a little better then Massie will be on the right.  Now you put a rookie QB in there I am afraid that even if he survives he will get broken

Gonna preface this with a small rant..... I don't like using the term BPA, because there are serious positional and situational concerns that also have to be included......  For example, I'm simply not drafting a defensive player before round 3 in ANY of my mocks, unless it's basically a generational talent. They might be a "better" player than whatever offensive player I pick overall, but our offense has been neglected to the point where it simply cannot be ignored and picks have to be forced... I'd add, that I also believe that at least 2 of our first 3 picks have to come on the OL and QB positions, and I want a minimum of 3 OL from this draft, so my picks are largely going that direction.

With ^ that in mind...... I'm open to QB, OL, and/or even skill position players in the first...... With the skill positions, however, I'm still not weighing them evenly against QB and OL.  WR is actually my lowest desire here among skill positions, despite it being likely to have the "BPA" on most team big boards. Why? Because we can't pass downfield without a passer.  A RB (Specifically Etienne) I think offers the dynamic playmaker the offense needs, and a reliable check down option in the passing game, ala McCaffrey and he'd be my first choice among non OL and non QB picks..... TE I'd have to take a pretty hard look at Pitts and Freiermuth (the #1 and #2 ranked TEs) simply becase Kmet still hasn't shown a damn thing, but I don't particularly want to go that route either because TEs simply don't have that high of total yards from scrimmage.  I'd add, I also value RBs a hell of a lot higher than most people do, both because it was my position when I played, and because they nearly invariably end up being the offensive player with the most yards from scrimmage, and are the offensive player who simply touches the ball the most of the team behind the QB and Center.

Even if I felt forced to go for Etienne, however, that pick is going to further heavily limit my options later in the draft as I now have to likely burn future picks trading back up/into the early rounds for OL talent and QB talent since those both run out by the 3rd round, so I'm almost invariably going QB or OL (specifically OT) in my current mocks. I MIGHT consider Etienne on par with say an OG prospect, however, unless said OG prospect was basically Quenton Nelson level of a stud

 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Epyon

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, Bfan said:

Seeing as how I don't do a lot of research and mainly drop in here to read everyone's opinions I have a question, and it may seem like a dumb question but it is an honest one.  If the top offensive tackle in the draft is still available when the Bears draft but only the forth or fifth best quarterback is still available would you still draft the quarterback in the first?

I ask this as decent left tackles are never available in free agency so if a QB is drafted first either Leno or some aging vet will be on the left and maybe if we are lucky someone at least a little better then Massie will be on the right.  Now you put a rookie QB in there I am afraid that even if he survives he will get broken.

Depends on what you think the player can become. Only me, @G08 and maybe one or two other people really liked Mahomes in this subforum. None of us thought he would be on this kind of tear in any way, but there were a lot of people saying he was a 2nd -5th round prospect. FOX had Mahomes at 8th best QB (behind Peterman, Kaaya, Kizer, Jarod Evans, and Davis Webb). Zierlein had Mahomes as 3rd (and listed as the boom or bust guy) and Tru as the number one guy.USA Today had Mahomes as the 6th guy and a 3rd-4th round guy. You can go on and on. That doesn't mean we're better scouts than all these guys, we just saw something special and thought he was underrated. And that's my point.

If you think you have something special in a QB then to hell with everyone's rankings. Screw them and their draft profiles, screw other needs, and screw what the fans want. You get the QB you want. Every spot can be patched and compensated for individually except QB. You find something a guy CAN do well and run with it. OT can't control the edge? May be a solid OG. CB a good tackler but not fast enough to be a true cover safety? Maybe you have a FS or even a SS. You can make subs and such to cover average talent but without a franchise QB you will not have sustained success.

We will still have Foles next year, let him be the sacrificial lamb as the OL gets fixed. He is already being overpaid. Let him earn it by taking the beating.

Also I don't believe you tie yourself to a QB just because you take him in the 1st. If you make a big trade up for him, sure. But there is no reason to be afraid to take another swing the next year or every other year if you don't think you have someone who will be a top 10 QB. The worst thing you can do (minus ridiculous outlier moves) is over-commit to a mediocre QB IMO.

 

1 hour ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Or. We miss out on a opportunity in the playoffs AND get a QB that puts us behind again for the next 4 years. 

If it takes you 4 years with a QB to know they suck then you (as a coach and GM) suck at your job. If you see you made a mistake then you try to move on. Yes a lot of the NFL teams have flaws, but ours is literally almost the entire offense.

OTs can flop too, or worse you can waste their careers. Look at Joe Thomas, a top 5 QB in my entire lifetime IMO. His career record was 48 wins and 128 losses.

 

Let's be realistic. Foles isn't catching fire like when he did in PHI. We our best OL wouldn't start for them right now, their top 2 TEs are better than ours, better WR corps, better RBs, etc. We got our standout performance out of him already. He can't stretch that many good days from the wildcard through the Super Bowl.

 

1 hour ago, Epyon said:

Gonna preface this with a small rant..... I don't like using the term BPA, because there are serious positional and situational concerns that also have to be included......  For example, I'm simply not drafting a defensive player before round 3 in ANY of my mocks, unless it's basically a generational talent. They might be a "better" player than whatever offensive player I pick overall, but our offense has been neglected to the point where it simply cannot be ignored and picks have to be forced... I'd add, that I also believe that at least 2 of our first 3 picks have to come on the OL and QB positions, and I want a minimum of 3 OL from this draft, so my picks are largely going that direction.

With ^ that in mind...... I'm open to QB, OL, and/or even skill position players in the first...... With the skill positions, however, I'm still not weighing them evenly against QB and OL.  WR is actually my lowest desire here among skill positions, despite it being likely to have the "BPA" on most team big boards. Why? Because we can't pass downfield without a passer.  A RB (Specifically Etienne) I think offers the dynamic playmaker the offense needs, and a reliable check down option in the passing game, ala McCaffrey and he'd be my first choice among non OL and non QB picks..... TE I'd have to take a pretty hard look at Pitts and Freiermuth (the #1 and #2 ranked TEs) simply becase Kmet still hasn't shown a damn thing, but I don't particularly want to go that route either because TEs simply don't have that high of total yards from scrimmage.  I'd add, I also value RBs a hell of a lot higher than most people do, both because it was my position when I played, and because they nearly invariably end up being the offensive player with the most yards from scrimmage, and are the offensive player who simply touches the ball the most of the team behind the QB and Center.

Even if I felt forced to go for Etienne, however, that pick is going to further heavily limit my options later in the draft as I now have to likely burn future picks trading back up/into the early rounds for OL talent and QB talent since those both run out by the 3rd round, so I'm almost invariably going QB or OL (specifically OT) in my current mocks. I MIGHT consider Etienne on par with say an OG prospect, however, unless said OG prospect was basically Quenton Nelson level of a stud

 

Agreed, BPA is too vague. If you have the top WR corps in the NFL but a poor OL and the top players left go WR, WR, OT - then you go OT. Need, scheme, and contractual allocations need to all take a role. If you have Mahomes or Wilson and you rank a QB high the 1st then you don't even look the guy's way. QB - EDGE - OT - CB should almost always receive the nod over the other positions if all else is equal. Studs like Nelson are those HOF talents that can warrant being drafted so highly even if they aren't in one of the key positions.

Like you, I've said for years I'll take a player from any of the base 22 positions in the 1st, but to be top 5 you better be an elite HOF talent. I'm fine with trading back and getting more swings in most instances, even multiple times if needed. I basically look at it as 1) Can he pass really well? No? 2) Can he consistently get to the QB? No? 3) Can he block EDGE rushers? No? 4) Can he cover WRs really well? 5) Is he a mismatch nightmare or a playmaker? (WR that has something outstanding about him, super athletic TE, RB that is either a tank, super elusive or an elite receiver) 6) OK, what does he do then? And how well does he do it? I also am happy with drafting RBs regularly, because I'm not easily sold on giving them big deals since they are also the skill position player that takes the most abuse through the year.

 

[JAF-N72EX]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

1 hour ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Or. We miss out on a opportunity in the playoffs AND get a QB that puts us behind again for the next 4 years. 

If it takes you 4 years with a QB to know they suck then you (as a coach and GM) suck at your job. If you see you made a mistake then you try to move on. Yes a lot of the NFL teams have flaws, but ours is literally almost the entire offense.

OTs can flop too, or worse you can waste their careers. Look at Joe Thomas, a top 5 QB in my entire lifetime IMO. His career record was 48 wins and 128 losses.

 

Let's be realistic. Foles isn't catching fire like when he did in PHI. We our best OL wouldn't start for them right now, their top 2 TEs are better than ours, better WR corps, better RBs, etc. We got our standout performance out of him already. He can't stretch that many good days from the wildcard through the Super Bowl.

I think you may have missed my point. Some of you want us to lose out on a playoff opportunity so that we can get a QB, right? Well if that QB doesn't work out then all we lost in the end  was a chance (regardless of how small of a chance it may be) and we suddenly become the Jets with Sam Darnold.

You get to the playoffs and anything can happen. Look at the Packers when they won it (they needed a last second TD just to make it). Look at the Giants during their two SB wins. They didn't look anything close to being a real contender heading into the playoffs during neither of their runs. Hell they was on something like a 6-7 game losing streak during one of them.

Draft picks are not guaranteed people. Have we not learned anything from our own team and others?

 

[Sugashane]

1 minute ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I think you may have missed my point. Some of you want us to lose out on a playoff opportunity so that we can get a QB, right? Well if that QB doesn't work out then all we lost in the end  was a chance (regardless of how small of a chance it may be) and we suddenly become the Jets with Sam Darnold.

You get to the playoffs and anything can happen. Look at the Packers when they won it (they needed a last second TD just to make it). Look at the Giants during their two SB wins. They didn't look anything close to being a real contender heading into the playoffs during neither of their runs. Hell they was on something like a 6-7 game losing streak during one of them.

Draft picks are not guaranteed people. Have we not learned anything from our own team and others?

 

No I get it. Maybe you miss and become the Jets with Sam Darnold. But now look at them. They are lookin at getting Lawrence. That is a more enviable position then what Chicago is right now.

If you have a HOF QB, yes anything can happen. Green Bay has a top QB and should have multiple more Super Bowl appearances with how good their offense was, they blew it with stubborn a FO. The Bears will not walk through 4 playoff games with this offense. They've failed to even score 21 points in back to back games. The 2011 Giants were a top 10 offense and had early injuries that hurt their total season defensive statistics. When they got healthy they could get to any QB almost. The 2007 Giants were middle of the road so getting hot wasn't out of the question. They also lead the NFL in sacks so there was always a chance of them beating pocket passers. The Bears lack the offense and struggle to get to the QB in comparison. The Giants did have a 4 game losing streak in 2011 but didn't have a longer stretch then that in either run.

I'm not sure if the last one is aimed at me but assuming not since I constantly have stated that. Still, ignoring the position and not taking more real swings because Grossman and Tru busted is a poor approach. FAs and trades aren't guaranteed either. They can flop as quickly, but are often far more expensive than a draft pick.

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

15 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

No I get it. Maybe you miss and become the Jets with Sam Darnold. But now look at them. They are lookin at getting Lawrence. That is a more enviable position then what Chicago is right now.

If you have a HOF QB, yes anything can happen. Green Bay has a top QB and should have multiple more Super Bowl appearances with how good their offense was, they blew it with stubborn a FO. The Bears will not walk through 4 playoff games with this offense. They've failed to even score 21 points in back to back games. The 2011 Giants were a top 10 offense and had early injuries that hurt their total season defensive statistics. When they got healthy they could get to any QB almost. The 2007 Giants were middle of the road so getting hot wasn't out of the question. They also lead the NFL in sacks so there was always a chance of them beating pocket passers. The Bears lack the offense and struggle to get to the QB in comparison. The Giants did have a 4 game losing streak in 2011 but didn't have a longer stretch then that in either run.

I'm not sure if the last one is aimed at me but assuming not since I constantly have stated that. Still, ignoring the position and not taking more real swings because Grossman and Tru busted is a poor approach. FAs and trades aren't guaranteed either. They can flop as quickly, but are often far more expensive than a draft pick.

 

 

I'm watching the game so I don't wanna get into all of this so I'll address this part.

No the last part was not aimed at you. Just a general statement because it seems as if that's the illusion some fans seem to have. I'm not at all against drafting a QB just because of Mitch, Grossman, and Mirer.  I'm all for drafting a QB and getting to the playoffs does not stop this. We can do both. And if every QB is taken then we can easily use those picks to start rebuilding the offense in other areas (because god knows we have plenty to fill) since we have Foles for another year anyhow. If a QB doesn't fall, then use those picks to rebuild so that NEXT year we can draft a QB (after a full college season) and we are putting him a position to win right away. And if it comes down to it, we can sign a vet this year.

Edited November 16, 2020 by JAF-N72EX

[Epyon]

29 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Only me, @G08 and maybe one or two other people really liked Mahomes in this subforum. None of us thought he would be on this kind of tear in any way

I'll take my moment to flex that I'd been firmly on the Mahomes train, and said Mahomes was the best QB of that class "and it wasn't close".... but yeah his success so far is still beyond my wildest dreams.

I'll also come back and eat some humble pie because overall I've been a mixed bag on my QB evals...

I had Trubisky as the #2 over Watson that year (on the assumption that Watson threw too many 50/50 balls and would suffer from higher INT rates, and more concussions/injuries from being more reliant on his legs)

I was really high on Mariota

Didn't like Wentz (though that one might be proving more accurate over time)

Hated Herbert (and he's been a stud so far this year)

Hated Allen (and he's been decent)


Running backs, despite being my position, I'm equally a mixed bag...

-Right on McCaffrey

-Wrong on Kamara (thought he'd be decent, but nothing special)

-Wrong on Darrell Henderson (thought he'd be special, but he's been decent)

-Right on Antonio Gibson

-And super wrong (so very very wrong, and this probably my worst miss) I thought Dalvin Cook would outright suck after his athleticism scores basically put him in the bottom percentile of the entire league. I'm still absolutely baffled by him being so good.

 

 

[Sugashane]

9 minutes ago, Epyon said:

I'll take my moment to flex that I'd been firmly on the Mahomes train, and said Mahomes was the best QB of that class "and it wasn't close".... but yeah his success so far is still beyond my wildest dreams.

I'll also come back and eat some humble pie because overall I've been a mixed bag on my QB evals...

I had Trubisky as the #2 over Watson that year (on the assumption that Watson threw too many 50/50 balls and would suffer from higher INT rates, and more concussions/injuries from being more reliant on his legs)

I was really high on Mariota

Didn't like Wentz (though that one might be proving more accurate over time)

Hated Herbert (and he's been a stud so far this year)

Hated Allen (and he's been decent)


Running backs, despite being my position, I'm equally a mixed bag...

-Right on McCaffrey

-Wrong on Kamara (thought he'd be decent, but nothing special)

-Wrong on Darrell Henderson (thought he'd be special, but he's been decent)

-Right on Antonio Gibson

-And super wrong (so very very wrong, and this probably my worst miss) I thought Dalvin Cook would outright suck after his athleticism scores basically put him in the bottom percentile of the entire league. I'm still absolutely baffled by him being so good.

 

 

Ah, I knew there was at least one other, I'll remember that.

 

I'm a complete mixed bag too. I didn't like Mariota, Winston, or Allen at all. I did like Dak and in my real time draft got him in the 4th before DAL (since he was a comp pick), but I like Wentz and Tru too. Who knows if Tru could have been better with better development. IDk.

 

RB I was a fan of CMC, was banging the table that Henry wasn't just the Richardson clone, and was a Gibson fan too. I didn't like seeing Cook go to MIN since I liked his potential. That being said I don't even remember Kamara predraft. Maybe I watched him and just forgot, IDK. I've got a ton of horrific picks and scouting to try and forget. lol

 

We're just armchair GMs, we don't get to devote a ton of time to this since it isn't our real job. On top of that we get less quality film, not time to speak with others on them, etc so I think overall the forum does a good job with what we get to work with.

Edited November 16, 2020 by Sugashane

[jumbo]

I was looking at the draft picks for 2021 and imagining where to deploy them, assuming appropriate talent level is available (not reaching).  Here's what I came up with assuming Robinson gets franchised and signed (not sure if they will but obviously they should).  Also, resign Deon Bush as backup S.  

1  QB1 (starter of the future - if we were lucky Mitch would net a comp pick)

2  G1 (starter to replace Ifedi - also, extend James Daniels, he and Whitehair are by far the best OL on the roster)

3  T2 (starter of the future - both Massie and Leno will be on the roster next year)

4  Traded to Vikings for Trevis Gibson

5  RB2 (need a potential workhorse type to rotate with Montgomery, still let Cohen do his thing but get a real backup instead of Patterson)

6  TE-U (Graham should not be rostered again next season and will likely be a cut to save $7MM in cap space)

6 (Miami)  5T (RRH is out for the season and could net a comp pick for the Bears in FA.  I see Hicks, Nichols, Urban back, maybe Edwards, too.  Need to extend Nichols beyond 2021)

6 Comp  CB2 (not much on the roster as far as boundary CB depth - lots of almost good enough slot guys could push Skrine to the outside if Johnson or Fuller had to miss time - Also need to extend Fuller beyond 2021)

6 Comp  KR (not sure if Patterson gets resigned as a Kick Returner, Cohen should be back at PR)

7  Traded to Raiders for Eddy Piniero

[WindyCity]

8 minutes ago, jumbo said:

I was looking at the draft picks for 2021 and imagining where to deploy them, assuming appropriate talent level is available (not reaching).  Here's what I came up with assuming Robinson gets franchised and signed (not sure if they will but obviously they should).  Also, resign Deon Bush as backup S.  

1  QB1 (starter of the future - if we were lucky Mitch would net a comp pick)

2  G1 (starter to replace Ifedi - also, extend James Daniels, he and Whitehair are by far the best OL on the roster)

3  T2 (starter of the future - both Massie and Leno will be on the roster next year)

4  Traded to Vikings for Trevis Gibson

5  RB2 (need a potential workhorse type to rotate with Montgomery, still let Cohen do his thing but get a real backup instead of Patterson)

6  TE-U (Graham should not be rostered again next season and will likely be a cut to save $7MM in cap space)

6 (Miami)  5T (RRH is out for the season and could net a comp pick for the Bears in FA.  I see Hicks, Nichols, Urban back, maybe Edwards, too.  Need to extend Nichols beyond 2021)

6 Comp  CB2 (not much on the roster as far as boundary CB depth - lots of almost good enough slot guys could push Skrine to the outside if Johnson or Fuller had to miss time - Also need to extend Fuller beyond 2021)

6 Comp  KR (not sure if Patterson gets resigned as a Kick Returner, Cohen should be back at PR)

7  Traded to Raiders for Eddy Piniero

If Massie and Leno are both on the team then Halas Hall should be stormed and Pace should be dragged to face judgement in the town square.

[jumbo]

7 hours ago, WindyCity said:

If Massie and Leno are both on the team then Halas Hall should be stormed and Pace should be dragged to face judgement in the town square.

I don’t see how the team would have cap space to replace them both when Leno has two years left on his deal. Massie maybe gets replaced but it would cost resigning ARob or getting another starter. 
I get the sentiment though.