CBears019 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bowler1215 said: It would cost us $23.5 million to do that. Listening to sirius nfl radio(briefly) they said that the franchise tag or the transition tag are very unlikely to happen. That seems incredibly low. I thought the FT for QBs would be around $35m. Even Mitch’s 5th year option would have been about $24m Iirc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bowler1215 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 hours ago, WindyCity said: We have over spent at OLB already without tossing a premium pick at it. If they re-sign Trubiksy there first 3 picks should be LT QB RT I was thinking more DL than LB, our run D took a hit with Goldman opting out. I can see us drafting a WR in the first 3 picks as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bowler1215 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, CBears019 said: That seems incredibly low. I thought the FT for QBs would be around $35m. Even Mitch’s 5th year option would have been about $24m Iirc. I'm guessing that covid has made the FT lower since it's screwed up everything else. Looking up how much to FT a QB, this came up: 'For what it’s worth, CBS analyst Joel Corry, a former NFL agent, estimates the 2021 franchise tag cost for a quarterback will be $24.072 million.' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Anyone else wonder how much of Carson Wentz's contract is "real money"? If we don't truly trust Pace & Nagy with a rookie QB decision do we maybe trust them with an experienced one who maybe now needs a quality OL in front of him after getting hurt...1st round grab a LT...trade the 2nd for say Wentz and maybe a 4th on the way back then get a WR in the 3rd and another OL or ILB in the 4th...would make a lot of sense if we can protect him and get his confidence back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Drafting a first round QB is more likely to bust or be disappointing than not. Check out recent history below -(my own labels). Just 7 of last 40 first round QBs I would label as good or great for team that drafted them. 2 of those came in 2017. I think but for Mahomes and Watson going same year as MT and behind him, Bears fans would not be so nearly disappointed given long odds of finding a good one. 2019 1 1 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Jury still out 2 1 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Jury still out 3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Bust 2018 1 1 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns O Disappointing - possible bust 2 1 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets Disappointing - possible bust 3 1 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming Good 4 1 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals Bust 5 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Different, but good so far 2017 1 1 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears Disappointing - possible bust 2 1 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Great 3 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Good 2016: 1. Jared Goff, California, Rams Disappointing - one really good year 2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles Disappointing - one good year then injured - recently benched 26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos Bust ___ 2015: 1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers Disappointing 2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans Disappointing ___ 2014: 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars One decent year and bust 22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns Bust 32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings Injured - mostly disappointing ___ 2013: 16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills Bust ___ 2012: 1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts Good/borderline great. 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins Bust 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins Disappointing for Dolphins. 22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns Bust ___ 2011: 1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers One great year - rest I would argue are disappointing 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans Bust 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars Bust 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings Bust ___ 2010: 1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams Mostly disappointing - injury prone 25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos One good and unusual year - bust ___ 2009: 1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions Good 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets Bust 17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers Bust ___ 2008: 3. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons Good 18. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens One great year, but mostly disappointing ___ 2007: 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders Bust 22. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns Bust ___ 2006: 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans One good year and bust 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals Bust 11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos Good, but nobody in Denver really remembers him too fondly. They like their memories of Tebow better. ___ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bfan Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Kind of makes you wonder if drafting a QB in the 4th or 5th and trying to develop them isn't a better rout. Always keep two in the pipeline and if one look good but not better then the starter trade them for draft capital and keep the other as a back up. If one looks better then the starter trade the starter and plug the new guy in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, dll2000 said: Drafting a first round QB is more likely to bust or be disappointing than not. Check out recent history below -(my own labels). Just 7 of last 40 first round QBs I would label as good or great for team that drafted them. 2 of those came in 2017. I think but for Mahomes and Watson going same year as MT and behind him, Bears fans would not be so nearly disappointed given long odds of finding a good one. 2019 1 1 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Jury still out 2 1 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Jury still out 3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Bust 2018 1 1 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns O Disappointing - possible bust 2 1 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets Disappointing - possible bust 3 1 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming Good 4 1 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals Bust 5 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Different, but good so far 2017 1 1 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears Disappointing - possible bust 2 1 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Great 3 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Good 2016: 1. Jared Goff, California, Rams Disappointing - one really good year 2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles Disappointing - one good year then injured - recently benched 26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos Bust ___ 2015: 1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers Disappointing 2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans Disappointing ___ 2014: 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars One decent year and bust 22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns Bust 32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings Injured - mostly disappointing ___ 2013: 16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills Bust ___ 2012: 1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts Good/borderline great. 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins Bust 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins Disappointing for Dolphins. 22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns Bust ___ 2011: 1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers One great year - rest I would argue are disappointing 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans Bust 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars Bust 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings Bust ___ 2010: 1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams Mostly disappointing - injury prone 25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos One good and unusual year - bust ___ 2009: 1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions Good 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets Bust 17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers Bust ___ 2008: 3. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons Good 18. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens One great year, but mostly disappointing ___ 2007: 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders Bust 22. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns Bust ___ 2006: 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans One good year and bust 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals Bust 11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos Good, but nobody in Denver really remembers him too fondly. They like their memories of Tebow better. ___ lmao two of the QB's on your list have won the MVP (Ryan, Jackson) but you label them only "good." Same with Watson and Allen - both guys are top 10 QBs in the game right now, but they are merely good. Cam was a REALLY good qb for 5-6 years, not sure you can call him disappointing outside of 1 year. RG3 i wouldn't call a bust - dude won ROY but his torn knee completely derailed his career. Teddy was a good QB prior to the injury - Vikings thought they had found their long-term qb - not sure you can say he's been mostly disappointing. Jared Goff hasn't always looked great, but i wouldn't call him disappointing by any stretch of the imagination - the only disappointing thing about him would be his contract, but that's on the team not the player. Stafford is on a hall of fame track career - you put him on any team other than the lions and he starts to get the recognition that he actually deserves - he too is more than "good." Tannehill is "disappointing for the dolphins" but has played GREAT football for the titans, almost like coaching matters. Does he fall into the "1st round QBs are bad" category for you? Andrew luck was AT LEAST a very good QB, the beating he took just forced him to early retirement. Baker and Darnold i would put in a "too soon to tell category," baker has shown flashes of really good QB play, while darnold would fall into the stafford/tannehill category of "get him a different coach/team." Wentz was a good QB for the 3 years prior to this one - something is off there - like goff, you can be disappointed with the contract, but i doubt the teams that gave them those contracts did it because they were disappointed with their play on the field. tbh i think a lot of your descriptions are just being used to cater towards your opinion. It's still a much higher probability that a QB in the 1st round is better than a QB later in the draft. not saying it can't be done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, dll2000 said: 3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Bust I'm not sure you can say that with certainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 19 hours ago, CBears019 said: That seems incredibly low. I thought the FT for QBs would be around $35m. Even Mitch’s 5th year option would have been about $24m Iirc. https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders/ 2021 estimate is about 23.5M for 2021. It was 26.8M this year, so that's interesting, but 23-24 seems to be right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 On 12/29/2020 at 10:55 AM, Madmike90 said: Anyone else wonder how much of Carson Wentz's contract is "real money"? If we don't truly trust Pace & Nagy with a rookie QB decision do we maybe trust them with an experienced one who maybe now needs a quality OL in front of him after getting hurt...1st round grab a LT...trade the 2nd for say Wentz and maybe a 4th on the way back then get a WR in the 3rd and another OL or ILB in the 4th...would make a lot of sense if we can protect him and get his confidence back. So it's a little wonky because a lot depends on when he gets traded, and there is certain degree of muddiness to his actual salary. So, basically, he's going to have roughly 40 million in real dollar guarantees the next two years. But this is where it gets complicated. So, Wentz's roster bonus is 10 million for 2021 and I believe is paid the third day of the year. At that point, the eagles will pay it, but they wouldn't trade him after that because that would hit their money. So that's 10. Then there's his base salary which is really interesting because it's not talked about a lot right now. But apparently, his actual base salary is only 3.9 million, not 15.4 as you see on spotrac / over the cap. That's because he has a bunch of built in escalators for the year for as much as 11.5 million which spotrac states are "unlikely". These could be the MVP / AP team type incentives. So this may count against the cap in 2021 (I'm unsure if these are previous year escalators, meaning you know at the start of season where you stand, or if it's escalators are for 2021 which means you have to account for it same year, but the money gets bounced back when caps are reconciled at the end of the year / start of next league year. TL;DR, you may have that 11.9M in escalators count against the cap in 2021, but would get it back in 2022 as roll over when it doesn't hit). So then you have his 2022 salary, which he has a partial guarantee that hits third day of 2021. That's important to note. So that is 15M. That's going to hit no matter what, and I think will be the biggest sticking point for teams that may trade for him. Nobody is going to want to have him guaranteed for a second year; they are going to want to dump him if he flops. If he really wants out of Philly because he doesn't want to compete to be a starter and doesn't want to be a back up, I believe that this is the single most important thing that he will have to give back to a team that is trading for him. He's going to have to be willing to renegotiate that early vesting on his 2022 salary; maybe they keep the dollar amount the same and it just fully vests on the third day of the league year of 2022 instead. This isn't any sort of NFLPA violation or anything, so this can be wiggled around....if....Wentz is willing to do it. So long story that is only slightly shorter? The absolute minimum in real cash that a team could pay would be 13.9 million. That's his absolute lowest base salary + roster bonus with all escalators missed and the 2022 guarantees removed. I may need someone to go back and double check that, but I've done a lot of research on the Wentz contract because for months I've thought that pending apocalypse was fascinating and wanted to see if the team actually had the balls to get out of it now. Keep in mind, I'm speaking as to real cash only. His hits would still be considerably more at 25.4 in 2021. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 hours ago, Heinz D. said: I'm not sure you can say that with certainty. He got cut. He is bust for Redskins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 14 hours ago, HuskieBear said: lmao two of the QB's on your list have won the MVP (Ryan, Jackson) but you label them only "good." Same with Watson and Allen - both guys are top 10 QBs in the game right now, but they are merely good. Cam was a REALLY good qb for 5-6 years, not sure you can call him disappointing outside of 1 year. RG3 i wouldn't call a bust - dude won ROY but his torn knee completely derailed his career. Teddy was a good QB prior to the injury - Vikings thought they had found their long-term qb - not sure you can say he's been mostly disappointing. Jared Goff hasn't always looked great, but i wouldn't call him disappointing by any stretch of the imagination - the only disappointing thing about him would be his contract, but that's on the team not the player. Stafford is on a hall of fame track career - you put him on any team other than the lions and he starts to get the recognition that he actually deserves - he too is more than "good." Tannehill is "disappointing for the dolphins" but has played GREAT football for the titans, almost like coaching matters. Does he fall into the "1st round QBs are bad" category for you? Andrew luck was AT LEAST a very good QB, the beating he took just forced him to early retirement. Baker and Darnold i would put in a "too soon to tell category," baker has shown flashes of really good QB play, while darnold would fall into the stafford/tannehill category of "get him a different coach/team." Wentz was a good QB for the 3 years prior to this one - something is off there - like goff, you can be disappointed with the contract, but i doubt the teams that gave them those contracts did it because they were disappointed with their play on the field. tbh i think a lot of your descriptions are just being used to cater towards your opinion. It's still a much higher probability that a QB in the 1st round is better than a QB later in the draft. not saying it can't be done. I had to separate HOF from just good. So I used great and good. Good is a compliment. I would always take good. For example Ryan is a good player, but he isn’t top tier of his era and he has always been loaded with offensive talent and not always played well. Top is Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers and arguably Ben R. and Wilson. Lately Mahomes. If you were talking about 10th best tennis player you would describe him as good. Disappointing doesn’t mean suck or bust, but means, well disappointing. Bridgewater did not turn out how Vikings had hoped. Cam was best in game for a year (outside SB), but that was outlier it turns out. I have watched him play. Watched him close in Amazon Prime series. He is reason they lose as often as not for most of his career and especially in last years in Carolina. Blame it on injury perhaps, but he just didn’t play very good most years. He has been mostly disappointing in reality, but will still be remembered in Carolina fondly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, dll2000 said: He got cut. He is bust for Redskins. I guess if you want to look at it from that angle, then I suppose by definition he's a bust. I'd say he's a head case, but we still don't have a good idea what sort of QB he can be. I wouldn't mind if the Bears picked him up, actually. Was Brees a bust for San Diego? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blkwdw13 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Heinz D. said: I guess if you want to look at it from that angle, then I suppose by definition he's a bust. I'd say he's a head case, but we still don't have a good idea what sort of QB he can be. I wouldn't mind if the Bears picked him up, actually. Was Brees a bust for San Diego? Except Brees wasn’t cut by the Chargers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, blkwdw13 said: Except Brees wasn’t cut by the Chargers. He wasn't re-signed. I suppose if you want to parse stuff, there's that. It still doesn't mean that my original point is off--being cut isn't the sole determination if a QB is a bust. Rich Gannon? Fran Tarkenton? I'm skeptical that Haskins will ever amount to much, but I don't think we can put that down in ink yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.