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So it begins, do the Bears draft a 1st round QB in 2021?


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On 9/30/2020 at 11:20 AM, WindyCity said:

The problem if we are picking 20-24, which I think is looking realistic we are too far to trade up for Lawrence, Fields, Lance.

We are also probably too low in round 2 for Trask, Newman.

What are you even getting at, dude? Who are the teams involved, and do they need a quarterback? How do you envision any scenario as "too far" to trade up?

And Trask is a first round pick, by the way. Just like Love was.

21 hours ago, G08 said:

Mahomes would have busted in Chicago. 10/10 times.

Not a chance in hell. The guy is too good. 

18 hours ago, soulman said:

I would still not call Mitch a bust.  He's been a disappointment mostly because he's not a fit for Nagy's offensive scheme.  

If Mitch is not actually a bust (as a starter), I'll be absolutely stunned. He's mentally weak. He completely freaks out (at times), on the field. And his deep accuracy is ****. He's maybe a backup going forward. Maybe. 

10 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Again you keep missing my point, you are consistently naming QBs who were drafted after the first round.  I'm not against drafting QBs after the first, I'm not against drafting a QB in the first provides it's a top 10 talent.  I'm against reaching in the first round to draft a 2nd round talent QB.  That's what teams do when they draft a QB in the first round outside the top 10.  Take a look at the history of what I'm talking about.  

There is no "history". How do teams know what will happen with a QB when they draft him? Look at how far Rodgers fell. Some teams probably had him way, way, down on their boards. Were they right? 

8 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think it probably goes Darnold, Tua, Herbert, Minshew in order of desire from Bears.  Fans anyway.

The Dolphins aren't shopping Tua and the Chargers aren't shopping Herbert. Minshew is looking like he may be out of the equation too. Darnold...maybe? But I doubt it. 

How is Lawrence undeniably better than Tua? Or even Herbert (who has looked good thus far)?

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The Bears should just draft 2 QBs next season and pray.

No more dumpster diving and no more massive trade ups, not that they can anyway from in the late teens or twenties.

Again, the bolded is simply nonsensical. You don't have any better idea as to how this season will shake out than anybody else. The Bears can trade up, although they may not feel the need to. And getting Mitch wasn't a "massive trade up" anyway. 

But, yeah, since Pace was an idiot and didn't draft a guy this year, if they're looking to move on next season, then why not draft two? Makes tons of sense to me. 

Edited by Heinz D.
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5 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

Mitch played his best ball in preseason 2017.  He's still at his best when a play breaks down and he's feeling confident to get something done.  I am quite sad for him, as he seems like a good guy who just can't handle the mental game when the lights are on. 

I think you've nailed it about as good as it can be nailed.

Whether under Fox and Loggains or under Nagy and his OCs Mitch can often look like a champ when he's forced to improvise like his 45 yard scramble or that TD pass to Mooney.  It's when he forced to play from the pocket, read the coverages, make the correct read, then deliver an accurate throw then he falls short at times and that has to be really annoying to a scheme oriented HC like Nagy.  He's never 100% sure what play to call he believes Mitch will succeed with.  That's gotta be frustrating.

This is year four and he still can't read coverage properly.  That pick he threw that got him yanked was a perfect example.  Graham wasn't open.  The DB was just laying off waiting to jump the pass.  If Mitch hadn't caught and tackled him it could have been a pick six at a time when we were already playing catch up.  Didn't we just go through all of that for 8 years with Cutler and he didn't have even half the weapons or the coaching Mitch has gotten.  Nagy's patience finally ran out last Sunday.

Some QBs never learn to read defenses well.  Elway was one of them.  It really wasn't 'til Shanahan came along and opened up the offense for Elway to play his kind of improvised playground football that Elway finally hit his highest marks.  Under Reeves he chafed.  Maybe Mitch will find just the right offense for his improvisational skills somewhere but my sense is it will never be here playing for Matt Nagy.  Mitch tried.  I'll give him that but he just doesn't seem to get it.  He doesn't fit.

JMHO

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8 hours ago, dll2000 said:

But I don't see Bears doing any of that to be honest.  Not really a Bears move.   Maybe Darnold would make sense if demands aren't too high or maybe Darnold in 2022.  But Bears may end up in a bidding war for Darnold with another desperate team.   Darnold could be broken and be a mental bust by that time as well even though he has talent.    

I think its more likely Bears draft a later prospect in next couple of years and keep plugging in veteran QBs as needed until they find a down draft QB they like or have an awful season and get a really high pick.

This is what I believe some here are over looking.  If were gonna bother to play "what if" games at least make them realistic.

We already traded up for Mitch and Pace took all kinds of media and fan heat for that even before Mitch through a single pass.  So how likely is it Pace would give up far more draft booty or picks and a key player to trade up 20 picks or even 10 picks?  I'd say it's about as likely as an 90 degree heat wave hitting Chicago in January.

Provided Foles proves he can operate the offense efficiently enough to keep us competitive, in the playoffs, and at least in the hunt for a championship it seems far more likely we'll lower our risk by drafting a QB later or possibly more than one and look to DeFilippo and Lazor to develop him for Nagy's schemes.  IMHO that's the key.

Mitch isn't a God awful football player but for whatever reason or reasons he's not able to grasp Nagy's schemes and run his offense.  Foles has far less physical talent but Nagy believe he can operate his offense and it will allow him to become more creative again.  Right now I can't see it any other way than this.

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1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:
19 hours ago, soulman said:

I would still not call Mitch a bust.  He's been a disappointment mostly because he's not a fit for Nagy's offensive scheme.  

If Mitch is not actually a bust (as a starter), I'll be absolutely stunned. He's mentally weak. He completely freaks out (at times), on the field. And his deep accuracy is ****. He's maybe a backup going forward. Maybe. 

I'd attribute it to two things Heinz.

1) He's not matured mentally in ways that are required of an NFL QB.

2) He's a poor fit for any offense that currently requires precise pre-snap decisions based on his ability to diagnose coverages correctly.

How his career goes from here I can't say but IMHO he's gonna have to "grow up" some.  I like the guy but even in his pressers he still sounds like a rookie QB.

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25 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Yup.  I am serious and his greatest success came at the end of his career.

His greatest strength tactically was his ability scramble and improvise.  He had three fast undersized WRs who could also scramble around and get open when he got chased from the pocket who would often bail him out.  Earlier in his career when very good teams could force him to play from the pocket they could beat him.

 

So here's a PM for you as a friend because I just want you to know what's happening.  And of course you may already have seen it and what got a thread closed.

Lemme wrap this up by telling you that I'm having some disagreements with the powers that be so after tonight I plan to take another sabbatical from this place and once again evaluate whether or not I'm the right fit for here.  I enjoy 90% of the members and 90% of our discussions and debates but there always seems to be someone who has to fling poo and start something and I'm too old to just smile and let 'em do it.  I post as honestly as I'm able based on both knowledge and gut feelings and I do not typically have a problem reading or understanding common English.  When insulted I respond in kind both here and in real life and I'm not likely to change my ways now.

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2 minutes ago, soulman said:

Yup.  I am serious and his greatest success came at the end of his career.

His greatest strength tactically was his ability scramble and improvise.  He had three fast undersized WRs who could also scramble around and get open when he got chased from the pocket who would often bail him out.  Earlier in his career when very good teams could force him to play from the pocket they could beat him.

He had a really good run game at the end of his career, too. And a defense that wasn't undersized, and that could only stop AFC teams. 

It's an interesting argument to have. Either way, Elway should never have retired when he did. I mean...sure, maybe he'd had enough, mentally. But he wasn't done physically.

2 minutes ago, soulman said:

So here's a PM for you as a friend because I just want you to know what's happening.  And of course you may already have seen it and what got a thread closed.

Lemme wrap this up by telling you that I'm having some disagreements with the powers that be so after tonight I plan to take another sabbatical from this place and once again evaluate whether or not I'm the right fit for here.  I enjoy 90% of the members and 90% of our discussions and debates but there always seems to be someone who has to fling poo and start something and I'm too old to just smile and let 'em do it.  I post as honestly as I'm able based on both knowledge and gut feelings and I do not typically have a problem reading or understanding common English.  When insulted I respond in kind both here and in real life and I'm not likely to change my ways now.

I think that was all just a weird mishmash. Hopefully you change your mind, dude. This season will be far too compelling, even if I'm wrong about the Bears...

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12 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

I wouldn’t limit it to pre-snap decisions. Mitch seems generally bad with his post-snap progressions too.

Can't argue with that but it's often his failure to correctly diagnose what type of coverage he's likely to see post snap that often causes him to make poor decisions or hold the ball too long while trying to figure out what he's facing.  This was an issue Nagy emphasized a need for Mitch to overcome in the offseason and he hasn't been able to do it.  Zone coverages still give him trouble.  And yeah, he's still far too dependent on locking onto ARob and willing to go to him even when he's well covered.

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1 minute ago, Heinz D. said:

He had a really good run game at the end of his career, too. And a defense that wasn't undersized, and that could only stop AFC teams. 

It's an interesting argument to have. Either way, Elway should never have retired when he did. I mean...sure, maybe he'd had enough, mentally. But he wasn't done physically.

I think that was all just a weird mishmash. Hopefully you change your mind, dude. This season will be far too compelling, even if I'm wrong about the Bears...

Elway had an interesting career to say the least.  And for the rest of my days I will always wonder how much differently Cutler's career may have turned out had Shanahan not been fired and Cutler played under him in Denver.  To Shanny he was his Elway v2.0.

As for the rest I dunno.  I can enjoy football without a need to talk about it every day.  Analyzing current events is fun at times whereas analyzing events 6 months or more in the future without the proper data not so much.  It's tough to do that these day even for an old investment analyst like me.  Too much guesswork is never good.

Other than that I have my own belief system as far as how disagreements can be worked out when parties are willing and dislike feeling I have to put others on ignore just to keep the peace.  Having spent a whole lot of time as a moderator myself I want to respect anyone who moderates here as well but I also have my own limits when it comes to being overly picky about expressions posted as abbreviations or intentional misspellings in a room full of adults.  It's not a 3rd grade Bible Camp.

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1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

There is no "history". How do teams know what will happen with a QB when they draft him? Look at how far Rodgers fell. Some teams probably had him way, way, down on their boards. Were they 

There is plenty of history.  I've already gone over the reasons why Rodgers and Marino were exceptions.  They were extraordinary circumstances.  Marino was going to go #3 until rumors about drug use started circulating the night before the draft (think Tunsil but no video).  Rodgers was widely considered the likely #1 overall pick going back to his sophomore year at Cal.  About a week before the draft the story broke that the 9ers weren't going to take him bc they had concerns about bringing in the hometown kid as the "savior" for the franchise.  It's not like there was any other QBs taken in front of him.  Nobody who had any modicum of football knowledge questioned Rodgers talent as a QB.  

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On 10/1/2020 at 8:47 AM, Superman(DH23) said:

Find me an example of a QB taken from 11-28, not under some extraordinary circumstance of inexplicably falling not due to talent (this eliminates Rodgers and Marino) that went on to be a franchise QB

idk why you stopped it at 28, but the league MVP went in the first round. Teddy bridge looked like the guy in minny before his knee exploded, and he went in the end of the 1st as well. those are the two most recent examples. Also, Watson went 12th, so technically he fits into your range.

i could be completely misunderstanding you though - "not under some extraordinary circumstance of inexplicably falling not due to talent" is slightly confusing me with the "nots" and different adjectives thrown in there

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2 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

idk why you stopped it at 28, but the league MVP went in the first round. Teddy bridge looked like the guy in minny before his knee exploded, and he went in the end of the 1st as well. those are the two most recent examples. Also, Watson went 12th, so technically he fits into your range.

i could be completely misunderstanding you though - "not under some extraordinary circumstance of inexplicably falling not due to talent" is slightly confusing me with the "nots" and different adjectives thrown in there

I stopped at 28 bc I think we can all agree that 28-32 are 2nd round equivalents.  Especially considering 20 years ago they were 2nd round picks.  And Watson was a top 10 talent, who just barely made it out of the top 10 (I said we should take him at 3).  Again what I'm talking about as top 10 are the guys who "should" go in the top 10.  If you like at the guys taken from 11-28 ( granted there are exceptions, but very few and usually some highly unusual circumstances surrounding it) they are almost always 2nd round talents who rose on draft day bc QB.  Those are bad moves.  Those hurt the franchise long term

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17 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

What are you even getting at, dude? Who are the teams involved, and do they need a quarterback? How do you envision any scenario as "too far" to trade up?

And Trask is a first round pick, by the way. Just like Love was.

Not a chance in hell. The guy is too good. 

If Mitch is not actually a bust (as a starter), I'll be absolutely stunned. He's mentally weak. He completely freaks out (at times), on the field. And his deep accuracy is ****. He's maybe a backup going forward. Maybe. 

There is no "history". How do teams know what will happen with a QB when they draft him? Look at how far Rodgers fell. Some teams probably had him way, way, down on their boards. Were they right? 

The Dolphins aren't shopping Tua and the Chargers aren't shopping Herbert. Minshew is looking like he may be out of the equation too. Darnold...maybe? But I doubt it. 

How is Lawrence undeniably better than Tua? Or even Herbert (who has looked good thus far)?

Again, the bolded is simply nonsensical. You don't have any better idea as to how this season will shake out than anybody else. The Bears can trade up, although they may not feel the need to. And getting Mitch wasn't a "massive trade up" anyway. 

But, yeah, since Pace was an idiot and didn't draft a guy this year, if they're looking to move on next season, then why not draft two? Makes tons of sense to me. 

Find me a trade where a team moved down from the top 5 to the late teens or twenties.

There are at least 5 teams in the top 10 that could go QB.

Pace sucks at drafting QBs, so if you take 2, you increase your odds.

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