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So it begins, do the Bears draft a 1st round QB in 2021?


dafreak

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Part I: 

Here is a list of QBs that have been drafted from 1980 to 2017 (see notes) and then placed into 4 different simple categories based on what I believe would be the consensus opinion. 

  • Note 1) *The only QB drafted from 2018-2020 that is included is Josh Rosen (it's pretty safe to say that he's a bust at this point).
  • Note 2) *You could argue Josh Allen could be considered 'good' and list Darnold and Mayfield as 'busts'. But I'm not going to include any of them. Too early.
  • Note 3) *Jared Goff + Carson Wentz are considered "too early tell". I wouldn't put Goff here, personally, but some may argue that if Wentz is listed here then Goff should be as well and that would be somewhat of a fair statement to make IMO.   

Categories
Good = Good players who have played up to their draft selection
Bust = Self explanatory
ACBM = A legit 'Argument Could Be Made' for or against. 
JISO = Jury Is Still Out. (See note 3 -- only includes Goff and Wentz)


52 QBs have been drafted between picks 1-10 from 1980-2017

  • 31 are widely considered 'bust' -- 59.6% bust rate. 
  • 14 are widely considered 'Good' -- 26.9% success rate.
  • 5  are listed as ACBM -- 9.6% (Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Jim McMahon)
  • 2  are listed as JISO -- 3.8% (Wentz, Goff)

*Are we going to label Lamar Jackson as a 'good' pick or 'too early to tell'?*
Personally, I would say 'too early' but I think most would consider Lamar as 'good' so that's how I'll play it. 

36 QBs between picks 11-32 combined (Lamar included) 

  • 28 are widely considered 'bust' -- 77.8% bust rate.
  • 8  are widely considered 'Good' -- 22.2% success rate.


17 QBs have been drafted between picks 11-20

  • 12 are widely considered 'bust' -- 70.6% bust rate
  • 5  are widely considered 'Good' -- 29.4% success rate


19 QBs have been drafted between picks 21-32

  • 16 are widely considered 'bust' -- 84.2% bust rate
  • 3  are widely considered 'Good' -- 15.8% success rate


BONUS: (Based strictly on this data)

  • Chances of drafting a 'good' QB anywhere in the 1st round--- 25%
  • Chances of drafting a 'bust' QB anywhere in the 1st round--- 67%

 

Part II: 

 The data above spans over 3 decades and I think we can all agree that the NFL is not the same now as it was 30 years ago since ALOT of changes have been made during that time with one of the major changes being the rookie contracts that were first introduced in the 2011 CBA. 

I don't think I need to go too much into too much detail on how big of a game changer this was for teams and QBs alike. In the past, QBs were getting 5-7 year mega deals before even taking a snap in the NFL and that . GMs are now drafting a QB and using those 4 rookie years (at a MUCH lower cost) to build a SB team around him and if he doesn't pan out then you can easily press the reset button without being obligated to keep him or being hindered by the cap. Hell, they don't even need to wait the whole 4 years if they don't want to (Josh Rosen is a good example here). 

So even though it's a smaller sample size, I think it's only fair to look at info that ONLY pertains to the modern day NFL when talking about the draft in 2021 and not how it was 30 years ago. Starting with QBs drafted since 2011. 

***Same rules and notes from above still apply here*** 

14 QBs have been drafted in the top-10 since 2011

  • 8 are widely considered 'bust' -- 57.1% bust rate 
  • 2 are widely considered 'Good' -- 14.3% success rate 
  • 2 are listed as ACBM -- 14.3%
  • 2 are listed as JISO -- 14.3%

8 QBs have been drafted between 11-32

  • 6 are widely considered 'bust' -- 75% bust rate
  • 2 are widely considered 'Good' -- 25% success rate

BONUS: (Based strictly on this data)
Chances of drafting a 'good' QB anywhere in the 1st round--- 18.2%
Chances of drafting a 'bust' QB anywhere in the 1st round--- 63.6%


In the end, while there is some truth that drafting a QB with picks 1-3 usually being more successful (ofcourse), drafting a QB in the top-10 does not guarantee any more success than later picks do and draft position should not be used to  predetermine whether or not to take a QB.

I can't imagine any GM with the 11th, 12th pick or whatever (who is in need of QB) just ignoring the position all because they don't have a top-10 pick. That's foolish. 

Here's some more trivia. The last time a 9th overall pick was used to draft a QB was in 1969 by the Chargers (Marty Domres).  

The draft is part skill and part luck.  For every 1 Mahomes drafted, there are 4 Jamarcus Russell's.  Good QB's are hard to find. 

Part III will be about round 2 and more. Because that's another silly notion. 

 

Edited by JAF-N72EX
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17 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I like how many Bears fans solution to the QB decision is to put Pace at the kid's table and let Nagy make the pick.

 

I don't think anyone is saying that. That's an exaggeration. It's Nagy's offense, he knows how he wants to run it and what he needs for it to run right. Why would he not be involved? 

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40 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I don't think anyone is saying that. That's an exaggeration. It's Nagy's offense, he knows how he wants to run it and what he needs for it to run right. Why would he not be involved? 

I think Nagy will be heavily involved.

Not sure why we need Pace involved at all. Lets bring in someone who has some recent success with drafting and developing a QB. To me Pace's record drafting OGs is not good enough that I do not want someone to support Nagy in the QB decision.

Edited by WindyCity
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25 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I think Nagy will be heavily involved.

Not sure why we need Pace involved at all. Lets bring in someone who has some recent success with drafting and developing a QB. To me Pace's record drafting OGs is not good enough that I do not want someone to support Nagy in the QB decision.

He also wanted Marcus Mariota as QB. I just don't think he knows what to look for. He also needs to do a better job of listening to his scouts and coaching staff.

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Just now, Nads786 said:

He also wanted Marcus Mariota as QB. I just don't think he knows what to look for. He also needs to do a better job of listening to his scouts and coaching staff.

Or... fire him and bring in someone with some actual recent experience in drafting and developing a successful QB?

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Just now, WindyCity said:

Or... fire him and bring in someone with some actual recent experience in drafting and developing a successful QB?

This is the right answer. I don't care if we get to the playoffs this year, we will never be a consistent team without a consistent QB. 

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Just now, Nads786 said:

This is the right answer. I don't care if we get to the playoffs this year, we will never be a consistent team without a consistent QB. 

I would like to get a GM from a team with recent success at the QB spot who can be an asset to the scouting of the next QB.

I do not see any value in keeping a guy who is dead weight when it comes to making the most important decision of the next 5 years.

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2 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I would like to get a GM from a team with recent success at the QB spot who can be an asset to the scouting of the next QB.

I do not see any value in keeping a guy who is dead weight when it comes to making the most important decision of the next 5 years.

What if that GM will only sign if he gets to bring in his own HC? Would you let Nagy go too?

Say something like Mike Borgonzi would only take the job if he got to hire Bieniemy or Joe Horitz wanted to bring in Roman.

 

I think I'd do it, especially if the offense isn't markedly better against the better defenses in the league this season with Foles at the helm. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

What if that GM will only sign if he gets to bring in his own HC? Would you let Nagy go too?

Say something like Mike Borgonzi would only take the job if he got to hire Bieniemy or Joe Horitz wanted to bring in Roman.

 

I think I'd do it, especially if the offense isn't markedly better against the better defenses in the league this season with Foles at the helm. 

 

If the offense isn't clearly better with Foles or we do not make the playoffs, I am fine with Nagy going as well.

Picking the next QB is the biggest decision the Bears will make over the next 5 years. Yet, we are going to do it with a GM who brings nothing to the table? Seems weird, I would want as many guys in the room who can add to the discussion and evalation.

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18 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

There is plenty of history.  I've already gone over the reasons why Rodgers and Marino were exceptions.  They were extraordinary circumstances.  Marino was going to go #3 until rumors about drug use started circulating the night before the draft (think Tunsil but no video).  Rodgers was widely considered the likely #1 overall pick going back to his sophomore year at Cal.  About a week before the draft the story broke that the 9ers weren't going to take him bc they had concerns about bringing in the hometown kid as the "savior" for the franchise.  It's not like there was any other QBs taken in front of him.  Nobody who had any modicum of football knowledge questioned Rodgers talent as a QB.  

I was talking in a broader sense. The greatest quarterback of all time was a sixth round pick that was, basically, an afterthought by the team that drafted him. 

The 49ers drafted Alex Smith #1, by the way. And a lot of teams were afraid of Rodgers because they felt they'd have to have him re-learn a lot of things, breaking bad play habits.

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Find me a trade where a team moved down from the top 5 to the late teens or twenties.

Why? Is there a point to that? I've explained multiple times that this upcoming draft is shaping up to be a different animal. if that's not the case, there will be a ton of free agents and cheap trade options...

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

There are at least 5 teams in the top 10 that could go QB.

And there may only be one. 

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Pace sucks at drafting QBs, so if you take 2, you increase your odds.

True. They also will, probably, need two. 

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19 hours ago, soulman said:

Other than that I have my own belief system as far as how disagreements can be worked out when parties are willing and dislike feeling I have to put others on ignore just to keep the peace.  Having spent a whole lot of time as a moderator myself I want to respect anyone who moderates here as well but I also have my own limits when it comes to being overly picky about expressions posted as abbreviations or intentional misspellings in a room full of adults.  It's not a 3rd grade Bible Camp.

Pool's a good dude, with very good insight into football matters. It was just a misunderstanding. 

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I like how many Bears fans solution to the QB decision is to put Pace at the kid's table and let Nagy make the pick.

 

If you are putting your GM at the kiddy table for the biggest decision in the franchise why are you keeping him?

Nagy will simply have more influence over the pick than he usually would. Not a weird situation at all, really.

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

If the offense isn't clearly better with Foles or we do not make the playoffs, I am fine with Nagy going as well.

If the offense is as bad as last year and the Bears don't make the playoffs, Pace and Nagy both need to be fired. There's too much talent on the team to accept that sort of result. Again. 

Edited by Heinz D.
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2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think Nagy will be heavily involved.

Then what was your point? 

 

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Not sure why we need Pace involved at all. Lets bring in someone who has some recent success with drafting and developing a QB. To me Pace's record drafting OGs is not good enough that I do not want someone to support Nagy in the QB decision.

We have one and you want him fired.  You have already been shown this before during one of your previous circular discussions. You just selectively choose to ignore facts that don't fit your agenda. 

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Lets fire Pace and hire a GM who is good at drafting QBs but is terrible at everything else and everyone will be happy. Oh wait...a QB is only as good as his staff and teammates so would that mean the QB is not so good....

But hey. A GM's job is to only draft a good QB. 

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3 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Lets fire Pace and hire a GM who is good at drafting QBs but is terrible at everything else and everyone will be happy. Oh wait...a QB is only as good as his staff and teammates so would that mean the QB is not so good....

But hey. A GM's job is to only draft a good QB. 

I agree with you. I get why people want to let Pace go. He messed up with the biggest decision a GM has to make and compounded it by trading more assets to make it happen.

Hindsight is always easy for us fans...however I say we let things play out a bit longer before we may any judgement calls on anyone's future.

For all we know this team could make some real noise with Foles as the starter now. We'll see.

The one thing I'll credit Pace for though because a lot of ppl just keep piling on him right now, is that he had the cojones to admit his mistake and come up with a contingency plan for QB in the short term.  He also didn't exercise Mitch's 5th year option.  Say what you want about him but that takes a lot and is what you want to see from your GM when things don't go as planned.

Pace may have effed up but he's not a blind fool. 

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