Changes in TV rights to NFL

[pf9]

Alright, most broadcast contracts are up at the end of 2022.

Sunday Ticket has an opt-out for DirecTV's exclusivity at the end of this year.

However, for the current TV partners to commit to the NFL beyond 2022, three major changes would need to occur.

First is the adoption of college overtime rules. The networks do not like when games end in ties. No other big 4 league allows it. NBC was livid a few years ago when an SNF game they broadcast ended in a tie. That same year, a nationally broadcast International Series game also ended in a tie. For perspective, only 4 games from 1989-2011 ended in ties. They have virtually occurred every year since 2012, when a rule change eliminated the ability for the team with the ball first in OT to win with a field goal, and especially after shortening OT to 10 minutes. Conversely, a team could lose without ever possessing the ball in OT if they allow a touchdown on the opening drive. This can't happen under college rules.

Second would be the elimination of seeding priority for division winners. The networks do not like the idea of mediocre teams opening at home just by winning a weak division. Most of the owners may want to keep top 4 seeds for division winners (I know one that probably does not: Jimmy Hasalm, owner of the Browns, who have not hosted a playoff game in their current venue, which opened all the way back in 1999), but the networks probably don't see it that way and probably hold more sway. Besides, a division winner last opened the playoffs on the road in 1989, the year before I was born, and we are way overdue for this to happen again.

Third would be Sunday Ticket being made available to all pay TV providers. Except for a short time after the Turner-Time Warner merger, until 2011 none of the NFL's TV partners were under common ownership with a competing pay TV provider to DirecTV. That year Comcast, owner of Xfinity, bought NBCUniversal, owner of Sunday Night Football broadcaster NBC. Since then, Disney, owner of MNF broadcaster ESPN, has taken control of Hulu which has a live TV plan that includes many major channels both broadcast and cable. AT&T, owner of DIrecTV, has also owned the former Time Warner, now known as WarnerMedia, since 2018. And if Charter buys ViacomCBS, parent of CBS, that would be three NFL TV partners under common ownership with a DirecTV competitor, as Charter owns Spectrum. Thus, the combined threats of at least two NFL broadcasters to walk away from the league should be enough to end DirecTV's hold on Sunday Ticket.

If all these changes are made, I see ESPN, NBC, CBS, and Fox keeping their current non-TNF rights.

Added to Sunday afternoon coverage would be the reverse mirror (see link for details), in conjunction with completely eliminating the no opposing games rule for primary markets. The reverse mirror would be used to distribute additional CBS and Fox games to markets using Paramount Movie Network (formerly Paramount Network and having more carriage than CBS Sports Network) and Fox Sports 1, respectively.

The reverse mirror could be used to bring in games perceived more entertaining if the local team is having a bad year. It could also be used in non-primary markets where multiple teams have substantial followings, like the Browns and Steelers in Youngstown, or the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers in Harrisburg,

While it reduces the need for Sunday Ticket, it wouldn't completely eliminate it. Usually a time slot will have at least 3 games in it (singleheader is counted as a single time slot), and thus Sunday Ticket would still be required if someone desires to watch a game not being carried locally on CBS, Fox or their affiliated cable networks.

When the playoffs are inevitably expanded to 16 teams, the reverse mirror would be used on the first weekend in the 1 PM slots on both Saturday and Sunday, with CBS/Paramount Movie Network and Fox/FS1 alternating every year which day they have their reverse mirror (which would involve 2 games being played at once).

I also see the TNF package not only airing on NFL Network, but Fox and ABC simulcasting the entire package, with each network getting half of the games. This would require new carriage contracts to be negotiated, which could stipulate that there must be some discernable difference between the Fox or ABC broadcast and the NFLN broadcast, namely different announcing teams and halftime shows.

ABC would also air a first round game on Saturday night, a Saturday Divisional round game, the Pro Bowl, any International Series games played outside of North and South America (and aired in a different timeslot from the CBS and Fox games, usually 9:30 AM for games in London) and every four years the Super Bowl on an exclusive basis. CBS and Fox would always televise AFC and NFC playoff games, respectively, while ABC and NBC trade off sharing the AFC and NFC playoffs with those networks every year.

[pf9]

Furthermore, in determining the teams that play on Thanksgiving outside Dallas/Detroit every year, I believe the networks will require NFL to prioritize teams with long Thanksgiving droughts, even if the teams in question did bad the year before, and thus the night game won't necessarily be a division rivalry.

[waterfish_21]

Link to sources please.

[pf9]

This is just my two cents. This stuff should happen though.

[candyman93]

You guys should read this thread.

 

[DontTazeMeBro]

The networks aren’t going to give up the NFL over message board issues like playoff seeding?

Im really excited about Sunday Ticket not being exclusive to Directv. I’m canceling Directv the day that happens.

[Superman(DH23)]

The networks don't care about anything you listed, the networks only care about the ad revenue generated by broadcasting NFL games.  As long as the NFL generates the revenue it does, they will fall all over themselves to be a partner.   As for Sunday Ticket exclusivity, again that comes down to money.  There are probably millions of subscribers to DirecTV that only subscribe bc of Sunday Ticket.  Sunday Ticket is a non ad revenue generator.  It's a subscription service where the vast majority of that $300 annual fee goes to the NFL not the provider.  For DirecTV it's a subscription driver, that's why they pay massive amounts of money to maintain exclusivity.  The larger cable companies don't need that to drive subscriptions.  DirecTV does bc TV is the only thing they can really sell you. I'll let you in on a trade secret, TV subscriptions generate very little revenue for Cable providers bc of the contracts they are forced to agree to in order to maintain broadcast rights to most networks.  The same reason you can't get a la cartel chs.  Cable providers almost make all of their money from being the best internet providers in their area.  That's money that goes almost entirely to profit.  Sure cable providers would love to have Sunday Ticket, if they didn't have to pony up the cash that DirecTV does, but until that happens, they are just fine bringing you football via traditional means bc it would not drive addl revenue to their door.