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Bianconero

2020: Week 4 - v Denver Broncos [TNF]

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Yes I and putting money down on the jets. I get 3 points and they are home on a Thursday night making Denver travel half way across the US. No way a 3rd string QB wins this game. I want us to use so Gase can go but I think they hold onto him until the bye week. 

Final scire

Jets 16

Denver  8

Jets miss an extra point and and Denver scores late to put 8 on the board but lose the onside kick. 

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I'm so torn on this game.

On one side, we have looked so bad that any team should be able to beat us, and if losing meant we are going to be rid of Gase I'm all for it. If Gase is relieved of his duties I really don't care who the HC becomes as long as Jim Bob Cooter takes over play-calling. At the very least, the final 12 games of the season would be fun to watch with Bell, Crowder, Perriman, Mims, and Vyinct Smith all becoming available starting week 5. But as far as this game, you never know with Vic Fangio. 

 

On the other side, rationale tells me this is a game where the Jets and that snake Adam Gase could put up 34 points.

1) Sam Darnold slumps have come in 3's over his career.

  • In 2018 he had two 3-game slumps. The first was games 2-4, then he came out and beat Denver 34-16 while throwing 3 TDs. The second was games 7-9 where he was horrific, came back week 13 and lit it up in a winning effort. Three 3-game losing streaks total, but Sam was amongst the best QBs in the NFL in the 2 of the final 3 games.  
  • In 2019 he limited his slump to one: games 7-9. He had the worst game of his career against NE and it hung over for another 2 games. He had a very solid game after and then exploded for the next two. His play was up and down for the rest of the season but we were 6-2 and didn't have any back-to-back losses. 
  • This year, he has played bad in the first 3. He was worst against Buffalo, had a bad game against the Colts, and was uneven against San Fran.
  • It would go against all the data to say that he's definitely going to have a bad game, and chances are we will win if he has a good game. 

2) Jamison Crowder, Jeff Smith, Mekhi Becton and George Fant expected to play. Maybe not be sexy, but it's a boost. Considering how stubborn Gase is with personnel limitations, I would think he'll open it up with his coaching career on the line. Keep in mind Sam had a good connection with Jeff Smith in camp and he can threaten deep. I think we'll see a lot of Crowder/Berrios in the backfield and in the slot, with Smith/Hogan/Cager/Malone splitting reps. 

3) The 3 defenses we faced are among the top in the league dating back to the beginning of last season. I hate the excuses because teams should never look as bad as we have looked, but it's the truth. Colts/49ers/Bills are 1, 2, and 16 this year; Bills/49ers/Colts were 2, 8, 16 last year. All have a lot of talent and great coaching (even if SF had injuries). 

4) It's a short-week, the Broncos are banged up on both sides of the ball. They're missing their top player at every level of defense. DE Jurrell Casey, OLB Von Miller, ILB Mark Barron, CB AJ Bouye. Also out: DL Walker, DL Jones, OLB Attaouchu, ILB Calitro. On offense? QB Lock, OT Wilkinson, WR Sutton. RB Lindsay is questionable. 

5) Brett Rypien is making the first start of his NFL career. Say what you want about the defense thus far, but I'm taking Gregg Williams over a young undrafted player with arm limitations 99 times out of 100. The only way the Jets lose this game is if the offense sucks imo. 

 

Ultimately Gase is a snake (winning when his job is on the line), Darnold overcomes 3-game slumps, offensive reinforcements, and all the Broncos injuries, I think the Jets win. 

Jets 27 - Broncos 13

 

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Hoping for a double digit broncos win. Show gase the door we aint going anywhere this season no reason to hurt draft position.

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5 hours ago, Formula 14 said:

I'm so torn on this game.

On one side, we have looked so bad that any team should be able to beat us, and if losing meant we are going to be rid of Gase I'm all for it. If Gase is relieved of his duties I really don't care who the HC becomes as long as Jim Bob Cooter takes over play-calling. At the very least, the final 12 games of the season would be fun to watch with Bell, Crowder, Perriman, Mims, and Vyinct Smith all becoming available starting week 5. But as far as this game, you never know with Vic Fangio. 

 

On the other side, rationale tells me this is a game where the Jets and that snake Adam Gase could put up 34 points.

1) Sam Darnold slumps have come in 3's over his career.

  • In 2018 he had two 3-game slumps. The first was games 2-4, then he came out and beat Denver 34-16 while throwing 3 TDs. The second was games 7-9 where he was horrific, came back week 13 and lit it up in a winning effort. Three 3-game losing streaks total, but Sam was amongst the best QBs in the NFL in the 2 of the final 3 games.  
  • In 2019 he limited his slump to one: games 7-9. He had the worst game of his career against NE and it hung over for another 2 games. He had a very solid game after and then exploded for the next two. His play was up and down for the rest of the season but we were 6-2 and didn't have any back-to-back losses. 
  • This year, he has played bad in the first 3. He was worst against Buffalo, had a bad game against the Colts, and was uneven against San Fran.
  • It would go against all the data to say that he's definitely going to have a bad game, and chances are we will win if he has a good game. 

2) Jamison Crowder, Jeff Smith, Mekhi Becton and George Fant expected to play. Maybe not be sexy, but it's a boost. Considering how stubborn Gase is with personnel limitations, I would think he'll open it up with his coaching career on the line. Keep in mind Sam had a good connection with Jeff Smith in camp and he can threaten deep. I think we'll see a lot of Crowder/Berrios in the backfield and in the slot, with Smith/Hogan/Cager/Malone splitting reps. 

3) The 3 defenses we faced are among the top in the league dating back to the beginning of last season. I hate the excuses because teams should never look as bad as we have looked, but it's the truth. Colts/49ers/Bills are 1, 2, and 16 this year; Bills/49ers/Colts were 2, 8, 16 last year. All have a lot of talent and great coaching (even if SF had injuries). 

4) It's a short-week, the Broncos are banged up on both sides of the ball. They're missing their top player at every level of defense. DE Jurrell Casey, OLB Von Miller, ILB Mark Barron, CB AJ Bouye. Also out: DL Walker, DL Jones, OLB Attaouchu, ILB Calitro. On offense? QB Lock, OT Wilkinson, WR Sutton. RB Lindsay is questionable. 

5) Brett Rypien is making the first start of his NFL career. Say what you want about the defense thus far, but I'm taking Gregg Williams over a young undrafted player with arm limitations 99 times out of 100. The only way the Jets lose this game is if the offense sucks imo. 

 

Ultimately Gase is a snake (winning when his job is on the line), Darnold overcomes 3-game slumps, offensive reinforcements, and all the Broncos injuries, I think the Jets win. 

Jets 27 - Broncos 13

 

Agree with a lot you’re saying. Just can’t see us putting up that many points. But as you stated... I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we win. We have a history of losing games that we “should lose” to help this franchise (typically it’s more draft related though).

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The jets have literally done nothing for me to think they’ll put up points.  The Broncos defense still is talented and the Jets D isn’t.  

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Heymangold said:

The jets have literally done nothing for me to think they’ll put up points.  The Broncos defense still is talented and the Jets D isn’t.  

Well coached Defense, stout against the run, very good safeties and a competent #2 CB. That's about it really.

- Zero pass rush, and we're down 2 of our top 3 OLBs (Miller, Attaochu, the latter of which is bad anyway).
- Given we're in our Nickel more than our base, we'll have two rookies starting at CB. 
- ILBs are both good against the run but can't move laterally.
- Our DL doesn't have explosion to disrupt the passing game.

Offensively, we have a 3rd string QB starting his first NFL game, our best receiving threat is injured, we're down to our 3rd string RT and our interior OL has been awful thus far this season.

Basically, most Bronco fans are like you guys - they want to lose this game. Not to get the Coach fired, but to have a chance at getting a premier QB to get us out of this constant 4 to 8 wins a season cycle.

Best of luck at staying awake, everyone.

Edited by lomaxgrUK
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1 hour ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Well coached Defense, stout against the run, very good safeties and a competent #2 CB. That's about it really.

- Zero pass rush, and we're down 2 of our top 3 OLBs (Miller, Attaochu, the latter of which is bad anyway).
- Given we're in our Nickel more than our base, we'll have two rookies starting at CB. 
- ILBs are both good against the run but can't move laterally.
- Our DL doesn't have explosion to disrupt the passing game.

Offensively, we have a 3rd string QB starting his first NFL game, our best receiving threat is injured, we're down to our 3rd string RT and our interior OL has been awful thus far this season.

Basically, most Bronco fans are like you guys - they want to lose this game. Not to get the Coach fired, but to have a chance at getting a premier QB to get us out of this constant 4 to 8 wins a season cycle.

Best of luck at staying awake, everyone.

You won the game in your very first sentence.  Well coached.

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1 minute ago, Heymangold said:

You won the game in your very first sentence.  Well coached.

Haha. Very true.

For me it's just talent. Yes they have a QB making his 1st start which is a HUGE factor. But look at what he has to help him. A good OL, Gordon at RB and 3 good receiving options in Jeudy, Fant and Hamler. They should be able to put up points against our bad defense. 

On defense they're hurting. But our offense scares no one. I get we've played 3 good defenses... but we've score 1 legit TD in 3 weeks (2 garbage time TDs).

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This is the game we accept the fact that the losing and sucking will be a season long thing.

20-13 Broncos

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I just got a Jets update on my score app. The info. is that Gase job is NOT on the line tonight no matter if they win or lose. So I'm thinking the Jets will not fire Gase util the bye week. So now I want a win so we don't go 0-16. I just can't handle that. I remember the 1-15 season and that was bad. 

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1 hour ago, SDotNova said:

This is the game we accept the fact that the losing and sucking will be a season long thing.

20-13 Broncos

Who hasn’t already accepted that?

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13 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Agree with a lot you’re saying. Just can’t see us putting up that many points. But as you stated... I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we win. We have a history of losing games that we “should lose” to help this franchise (typically it’s more draft related though).

Gase is a weird, weird coach man. Look at these stats that circulated in my fantasy league chat... 

 

Since 2016, Adam Gase leads the NFL with losses 10+ points by a wide margin. 

  • Adam Gase (30-37): 29 
  • Hue Jackson (3-36-1): 21
  • Todd Bowles (14-34): 17
  • Jay Gruden (22-30-1): 17
  • Jon Gruden (13-22): 16
  • Doug Marrone (23-30): 16

In games where they are determined by 9 points or less, ranked by win percentage... 

  • Adam Gase (30-8): 0.789
  • Jon Gruden (13-6): 0.684
  • Jay Gruden (22-13-1): 0.625
  • Doug Marrone (23-14): 0.622
  • Todd Bowles (14-17): 0.452
  • Hue Jackson (3-15-1): 0.184

 

Gase average points scored in wins: 26.13 

In games determined by 9 points or less: 24.09

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