Week 4 GDT - Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

[J-ALL-DAY]

Well, last week was fun with so many starters out and still being able to dominate the way he did. Even though the Eagles look like a mess, I don't think this game will be nearly as easy. They still have a very formidable DL and our OL is mediocre at best. Our run game is going to get stifled again and it went will come down to Mullens making enough plays and avoiding costly turnovers. He's going to push his limits and take risks, but that comes at a price. Got fortunate last week that he didn't turn the ball over and hope he has another clean game.

Kittle should be ready to go which we desperately need after Reed got hurt last week. Dwelley played well but Kittle is a different animal. There is a chance Deebo plays but likely next week as reported by the national media. I'm expecting Aiyuk to carry over his performance from the second half of last week. He just needs to get the ball in his hands and he will do the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if this is the week we pass heavy to our backs against the Eagles backers. 

Defensively, I don't expect much pass rush but solid enough. The Eagles offense, and Wentz in particular has been awful. Sanders looks to be a nice back, but Kwon/Warner should be able to contain him in the receiving game. They will get their yards in the run game. Key will be to again bend, but don't break and force Wentz into a few turnovers.

I'll say we win this one 24-17 in a game that is pretty tight up until the end. 

[N4L]

I am wondering if we get mostert back this week. He is being reevaluated on Wednesday.

His injury may not have been very severe. We were blowing out the jets and then they just didnt want him to play on the turf again. 

 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

49ers should win this game by at least ten points. Wentz is playing like the worst QB in the NFL, and the 49ers are expected to get some key guys back. I'll be very disappointed if they drop one to the Eagles. 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by TecmoSuperJoe

[NinerNation21]

Per Pro Football Outsiders:

Total Team DVOA: 49ers - #3 / Eagles - #29

Offensive DVOA: 49ers - #8 / Eagles - #32 (ouch)

Defensive DVOA: 49ers - #5 / Eagles - #18

 

What I'm keying in on:

 

Blocking

As cliche as this sounds, this game will be won in the trenches. The 49ers are uncharacteristically bad at blocking right now. We're the 31st ranked run blocking O-line and the 20th rank pass blocking O-line. On the flip side, the Eagles are the 5th best pass rushing team in the NFL, courtesy of their 8 sack performance last week. The 49ers must clean up their blocking this week or we will be solely depending on Wentz gifting us this win. 

 

Stopping the Run

Another interesting match up this week will be the Eagles run game vs. our run defense. When speaking specifically about stopping RBs this year, the 49ers are performing extremely well. QB's are a completely different story:

Niners Run Defense Against RBs: 59 carries / 200 yrds / 3.39 ypc / 1 TD

Niners Run Defense Against QBs: 21 carries / 150 yrds / 7.14 ypc / 1 TD

Wentz is the #2 rusher for the Eagles offense, which is our biggest problem on defense. Miles Sanders is the best RB the 49ers will have faced so far this year and he's been pretty darn good so far this year. We will see this week if our defense is a product of playing two bad offenses back to back, or if the 49ers are still a top 10 defense in this league. 

 

Stopping the Pass

 

We know Wentz is firmly on the struggle bus in the passing game. The Eagles offense is primarily relying on 5 players in the passing game - Ertz, DeSean Jackson, Greg Ward, Goedert, and Sanders. The majority of their targets are going to their TE's with Goedert being a little bit more of a playmaker than Ertz so far.

It's a good thing Goedert is not playing this week as Goedert has been the Eagles best passing playmaker so far this year. Almost 50% of Goedert's yards come after the catch (71 of 138 yards), which puts him #10 among TE's in yardage. Ertz has been more of a check down, possession TE so far this year. Ertz is 3rd among TE's in catches and 12th in yardage, but only has a yard average of 8.7 and 30 YAC. To sum up, Goedert seems to be their "big play" guy, with Ertz being the 3rd down possession, check down option.

This plays right into the 49ers' hand with the strength of our coverage unit being our LB's. 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by NinerNation21

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

49ers should win this game by at least ten points. Wentz is playing like the worst QB in the NFL, and the 49ers are expected to get some key guys back. I'll be very disappointed if they drop one to the Eagles. 

Only Kittle is likely to return, what other key player is returning? Deebo? I think he would like to come back, but the word is the Niners are targeting week 5 for him. Mostert? I have no idea with his injury, I just thought it was a 2-3 week injury as originally reported.

Like we have a TON of injuries and regardless of the depth and our top level coaching staff, majority of the games aren't going to be easy. The Eagles have played bad ball thus far no doubt about it, but not crazy to think their DL can dominate our OL and make this into a dog fight...Because we shouldn't expect all for our run game to be all that effective. I'm confident in our defense but the Eagles OL hasn't been too bad since week 1 and Wentz should be able to have time back there....If he plays a solid clean game, the Eagles offense should be able to move the ball fairly decent. 

At this point, I will take a win any way we can get it. Going 3-1 with our reinforcements returning would be HUGE.

[NcFinest9erFan]

20-13. us.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Only Kittle is likely to return, what other key player is returning? Deebo? I think he would like to come back, but the word is the Niners are targeting week 5 for him. Mostert? I have no idea with his injury, I just thought it was a 2-3 week injury as originally reported.

Like we have a TON of injuries and regardless of the depth and our top level coaching staff, majority of the games aren't going to be easy. The Eagles have played bad ball thus far no doubt about it, but not crazy to think their DL can dominate our OL and make this into a dog fight...Because we shouldn't expect all for our run game to be all that effective. I'm confident in our defense but the Eagles OL hasn't been too bad since week 1 and Wentz should be able to have time back there....If he plays a solid clean game, the Eagles offense should be able to move the ball fairly decent. 

At this point, I will take a win any way we can get it. Going 3-1 with our reinforcements returning would be HUGE.

Isn't Greenlaw also coming back? 

As for Wentz, he's been playing bad even when protected. That's how alarming his play has been apparently. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

20 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Isn't Greenlaw also coming back? 

As for Wentz, he's been playing bad even when protected. That's how alarming his play has been apparently. 

Definitely, he's been terrible this season no doubt about it. But he's always been at least a solid QB so you would think he would get back to that. If not, then something is really going on and maybe he has just regressed badly. I don't know, haven't watched enough Eagles games to say one way or another.

I have no idea about Greenlaw tbh. Didn't hear anything about him returning, but if so? Great! 

[NinerNation21]

20 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Definitely, he's been terrible this season no doubt about it. But he's always been at least a solid QB so you would think he would get back to that. If not, then something is really going on and maybe he has just regressed badly. I don't know, haven't watched enough Eagles games to say one way or another.

I have no idea about Greenlaw tbh. Didn't hear anything about him returning, but if so? Great! 

Not sure the bolded will happen this week. No Goedert, no Reagor, possibly no Jackson, No Jeffery, and no Arcega-Whiteside. He has Ertz, Ward, and Sanders to work with. Sanders can certain cause major problems, but I just don't see this being the week the Eagles snap out of the funk. 

[StevenK]

2 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Not sure the bolded will happen this week. No Goedert, no Reagor, possibly no Jackson, No Jeffery, and no Arcega-Whiteside. He has Ertz, Ward, and Sanders to work with. Sanders can certain cause major problems, but I just don't see this being the week the Eagles snap out of the funk. 

I was listening to a podcast (I think Pat McAfee’s) and they were talking about Wentz and how he’s digressing. I think he feels as if all the team’s success is completely on his shoulders and that’s why he’s trying so hard. Especially with all the injuries the team has faced. 

[NinerNation21]

30 minutes ago, StevenK said:

I was listening to a podcast (I think Pat McAfee’s) and they were talking about Wentz and how he’s digressing. I think he feels as if all the team’s success is completely on his shoulders and that’s why he’s trying so hard. Especially with all the injuries the team has faced. 

That would make sense. Hero ball is not Wentz' style though. Honestly, it's hard to know who he really is with all of the injuries preventing him from play a full season most years. But, I agree with you that he's trying too hard right now to compensate. 

[NinerNation21]

 

[P_locniners]

This should be a very winnable game, though I do think the PHI pass-rush is easily the best we have faced yet and that will be the true test. Their defense can be pretty darn good, luckily we get Kittle back.

I fully expect another Mullins start and we get back Kittle, but I DO NOT think we get Jimmy G, Mostert,  Deebo, Ford or Greenlaw back. K. Williams injury scares me a bit also. I just think Shannahan will want to make sure those guys are healthy for when we start hitting the grind of the schedule and that we have a team good enough to step up and beat the Eagles as-is. I think that win over the Giants, even though they are the Giants, was a major morale booster for the backups that have come in and contributed.

Side note: Also very much looking for to Hasty getting more snaps, I think he could be a wild card for this game and for Verrett to continue playing well. I think that if Verrett puts together another solid game, he could very well take over that #2 spot across from Sherman moving forward.

[757-NINER]

Its crazy to me that if you had asked me before the season of a worst case scenario for us, I would have probably said losing both Ford and Bosa for a extended amount of time or losing Jimmy for more than a couple of games. And the fact that we're heading into Week 4 having lost both Bosa and Thomas for the season, no Jimmy or for what looks to be his 2nd game in a row, no Ford since week 1 and are on the verge of having our top 3 CBs all out, along with our top 2 RBs, and can STILL be looked at as favorites heading into a game against a playoff team from last year is utterly mind-blowing. 

Now of course, all these injuries happening at this point in the schedule is very fortuate for us. Let's not kid ourselves. But if we could go into that week 6 game against the Lambs at 5-1 with the amount of personnel losses and games missed from our starters, it could catapult us the to the top of the division.

I mean the NFCW is easily the best division in football. Every divisional game is pretty much a playoff game at this point. The intensity of those types of games gets you ready to face other potential playoff teams. If we can at least split with the Hawks and Lambs, while also avenging our week 1 lost against the Cards, I like our chances to be at top of division. We would be getting alot of talent back right when the schedule gets tougher. And if we could somehow secure a pass-rusher before the trade deadline that would be icing on the cake.

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by 757-NINER

[757-NINER]

3 minutes ago, P_locniners said:

This should be a very winnable game, though I do think the PHI pass-rush is easily the best we have faced yet and that will be the true test. Their defense can be pretty darn good, luckily we get Kittle back.

I fully expect another Mullins start and we get back Kittle, but I DO NOT think we get Jimmy G, Mostert,  Deebo, Ford or Greenlaw back. K. Williams injury scares me a bit also. I just think Shannahan will want to make sure those guys are healthy for when we start hitting the grind of the schedule and that we have a team good enough to step up and beat the Eagles as-is. I think that win over the Giants, even though they are the Giants, was a major morale booster for the backups that have come in and contributed.

Side note: Also very much looking for to Hasty getting more snaps, I think he could be a wild card for this game and for Verrett to continue playing well. I think that if Verrett puts together another solid game, he could very well take over that #2 spot across from Sherman moving forward.

There's no way Verrett starts over Manny if he's healthy. I could see Verrett maybe leapfrogging Spoon and being the guy to play opposite Manny until Sherm returns. But I don't see a situation where his play puts Manny on the bench.