Fire Pace and Nagy

[dll2000]

14 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

 

One of my main arguments was that when presented with pretty compelling evidence that the offensive line was talent deficient, Pace did not pick more players or prospects there. At least not to the degree he should have, based on that evidence. 

How many championship caliber teams have you seen that have a bad offensive line? 

I agree.   Been complaining about many O line moves or lack thereof for 4 years.  

Coaching staff has made it worse though.   

[JAF-N72EX]

On 1/7/2021 at 10:57 AM, abstract_thought said:

Perhaps I mis-understood your methodology. Are you not taking the median of the average AV for each drafted player across all seasons played?

You need to quit the personal attacks when people are simply questioning your methodology. It's part of a normal discussion.

Yes, I'm using the median average because it's a better way to gauge Pace's draft picks vs the league based on the amount of hits or misses. 

Really?  You took what I said as a personal attack?  Cmon dude, don't be so sensitive.  I'm offended that YOU were offended by it. 

I posted a non-biased way to judge Pace's draft picks vs the league, and provided it with facts, and it seemed like you just keep on trying to find ways to discredit it only because you don't agree with the results, and I was simply just pointing it out is all.  If that wasn't the case then my bad. I wasn't trying to make it personal lol. 

 

On 1/7/2021 at 10:02 AM, WindyCity said:

Better

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

Indianapolis

Tennessee

Kansas City 

LA Chargers 

Buffalo 

New Orleans 

Dallas 

Packers 

Tampa

This is not a list of 17 GMs who are better than Pace at drafting.  This is a list of 11 teams that you think are better than the Bears at drafting and you could make a good argument for a good amount them. 

But whatever, that's your opinion. Nonetheless, even by your own admission it still shows that Pace is NOT as bad at drafting players that you think he is . 

On 1/7/2021 at 2:39 PM, abstract_thought said:

Just taking Total CarAV per season from 2015-2019 and ranking each team, the Bears are 14th out of 32 teams.

9th actually.  Did you include supplemental draft picks?  

 Notice how Pace has only had 32 drafts picks and he has still hit at a high rate.  

Tm	Total CarAV	# of Players drafted
CLE	381	52
KAN	369	36
IND	366	45
BAL	363	47
NOR	347	33
DAL	338	43
SFO	329	48
MIN	321	49
CHI	317	32
SEA	317	48
JAX	309	36
TAM	308	36
TEN	306	38
ATL	303	32
NWE	298	43
LAC	292	35
LAR	290	43
WAS	289	46
NYG	288	35
DET	280	41
MIA	280	36
GNB	278	44
CAR	263	32
BUF	262	35
HOU	261	35
CIN	243	48
PIT	242	39
DEN	241	41
PHI	240	32
OAK	232	44
ARI	228	38
NYJ	217	34

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by JAF-N72EX

[abstract_thought]

6 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Yes, I'm using the median average because it's a better way to gauge Pace's draft picks vs the league based on the amount of hits or misses. 

Really?  You took what I said as a personal attack?  Cmon dude, don't be so sensitive.  I'm offended that YOU were offended by it. 

I posted a non-biased way to judge Pace's draft picks vs the league, and provided it with facts, and it seemed like you just keep on trying to find ways to discredit it only because you don't agree with the results, and I was simply just pointing it out is all.  If that wasn't the case then my bad. I wasn't trying to make it personal lol. 

You know what you were doing but whatever.

If you're taking the median of a group of players, you've eliminated the effects of outlier players who are extremely good. I'm not sure if that's what you're doing, but if it is, it's problematic. The reason has nothing to do with my opinion of Pace and everything to do with the methodology.

I've done my own analysis of Pace and he grades out well, though not elite, on a per-pick basis when you look at AV relative to draft position (I compared the AV per season for each draftee to an approximate value of each pick). Where he fails is on volume.

[JAF-N72EX]

15 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

You know what you were doing but whatever.

If you're taking the median of a group of players, you've eliminated the effects of outlier players who are extremely good. I'm not sure if that's what you're doing, but if it is, it's problematic. The reason has nothing to do with my opinion of Pace and everything to do with the methodology.

I've done my own analysis of Pace and he grades out well, though not elite, on a per-pick basis when you look at AV relative to draft position (I compared the AV per season for each draftee to an approximate value of each pick). Where he fails is on volume.

Don't assume to know. That was your first mistake. 

No it is not eliminating them. I've already been through this. It is simply making sure that a particular player is not carrying the weight of an entire field of players. That's what median does. 

I wouldn't call Pace a top-5 but he is certainly top-10.  A 41% hit rate(as of now) in 6 years while drafting 3 All-Pros with only 32 picks and no 1st rnd for 2 years is pretty damn good no matter how anyone spins it. Pace has his flaws but drafting isn't one of them.  

If you are expecting to find a GM who is a consensus top-5 in drafting players and will not be happy until you do then you will be waiting a very long time for that "luck" to happen. And if you fire every GM who doesn't meet this (extremely) high standard then you will quickly become the new Browns. 

Pace missed big on Mitch and unfortunately for him that left a sour taste in alot of people's mouths. And that sour taste has made people look past the other picks that he has hit on and ultimately put it in their heads that he is terrible or below average when it's the exact opposite. 
 

[Heinz D.]

10 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Pace missed big on Mitch and unfortunately for him that left a sour taste in alot of people's mouths. And that sour taste has made people look past the other picks that he has hit on and ultimately put it in their heads that he is terrible or below average when it's the exact opposite. 

I would actually be more than willing to forgive Pace for picking Mitch if Mitch was the only problem the team has. He's not. 

[Madmike90]

Just to go on record before anything happens...firing Pace or Nagy would be a mistake at this point...get rid of Trubisky...probably Pagano as well...defos Phillips even tho I doubt that will ever happen.

[abstract_thought]

On 1/9/2021 at 2:21 AM, JAF-N72EX said:

9th actually.  Did you include supplemental draft picks?  

 Notice how Pace has only had 32 drafts picks and he has still hit at a high rate.  

Tm	Total CarAV	# of Players drafted
CLE	381	52
KAN	369	36
IND	366	45
BAL	363	47
NOR	347	33
DAL	338	43
SFO	329	48
MIN	321	49
CHI	317	32
SEA	317	48
JAX	309	36
TAM	308	36
TEN	306	38
ATL	303	32
NWE	298	43
LAC	292	35
LAR	290	43
WAS	289	46
NYG	288	35
DET	280	41
MIA	280	36
GNB	278	44
CAR	263	32
BUF	262	35
HOU	261	35
CIN	243	48
PIT	242	39
DEN	241	41
PHI	240	32
OAK	232	44
ARI	228	38
NYJ	217	34

 

You have to divide by number of possible seasons for each draftee or you'll get results that overweigh earlier drafts. CarAV per season is better than CarAV when comparing recent classes IMO.

[abstract_thought]

On 1/10/2021 at 12:35 AM, JAF-N72EX said:

No it is not eliminating them. I've already been through this. It is simply making sure that a particular player is not carrying the weight of an entire field of players. That's what median does. 

Let's take the 1st 4 picks from 2017:

Round	Player	Pick	CarAV
1	Mitchell Trubisky	2	33
2	Adam Shaheen	45	3
4	Eddie Jackson	112	35
4	Tarik Cohen	119	21
Median			27
1	Patrick Mahomes	10	54
2	Tanoh Kpassagnon	59	14
3	Kareem Hunt	86	35
4	Jehu Chesson	139	0
Median			24.5

 

Using the median over a group of players absolutely discards the positive impact of Mahomes and other outlier players. In this example alone the methodology treats Mahomes as no more valuable than Kareem Hunt.

[WindyCity]

4 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Just to go on record before anything happens...firing Pace or Nagy would be a mistake at this point...get rid of Trubisky...probably Pagano as well...defos Phillips even tho I doubt that will ever happen.

False, allowing Pace to continue to blow future resources to field a terrible offense and a team incapable of winning in the playoffs would be a mistake.

[WindyCity]

You cannot allow Pace to make more desperation moves. He is only burying the future GM who is going to need to rebuild this mess.

[Nads786]

Pace has to go. He has an eye for talent in later rounds and perhaps even defensive first round picks (Floyd looks good), however, unless you draft like the Ravens you cannot stay with a massive miss that is Mitch.

When he traded up to get Mitch my first thought was , this is perfect - he’s telling us exactly why he’s fired of this doesn’t workout.

[topwop1]

5 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Just to go on record before anything happens...firing Pace or Nagy would be a mistake at this point...get rid of Trubisky...probably Pagano as well...defos Phillips even tho I doubt that will ever happen.

Sometimes the mistakes are not firing someone but rather allowing them to continue to be employed when it is evident that there are flaws in the way they operate.  We can all specualte right now but we really don't know what the best course of action would be long term for this team. 

Arguments can be made either way but I don't know how many of us can feel that great about the direction of the team based on what we've see lately and the harsh cap and QB reality facing this team this offseason.

 

[WindyCity]

10 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Sometimes the mistakes are not firing someone but rather allowing them to continue to be employed when it is evident that there are flaws in the way they operate.  We can all specualte right now but we really don't know what the best course of action would be long term for this team. 

Arguments can be made either way but I don't know how many of us can feel that great about the direction of the team based on what we've see lately and the harsh cap and QB reality facing this team this offseason.

 

This team is regressing.

They are getting older, more expensive, and less productive.

[topwop1]

27 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

This team is regressing.

They are getting older, more expensive, and less productive.

Yup Pace's big gamble on Trubisky failed in hindsight.  The logic was there and the plan was sound...he just took the wrong guy. 

If he hits on the QB we're likely competing for multiple championships like the Chiefs are but it obviously didn't work that way so now you have to start over again.

I wouldn't entrust him to a second chance at that but at the end of the day it's not up to me to make that decision.

Hopefully Georgie Porgie comes to his senses.

[WindyCity]

58 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Yup Pace's big gamble on Trubisky failed in hindsight.  The logic was there and the plan was sound...he just took the wrong guy. 

If he hits on the QB we're likely competing for multiple championships like the Chiefs are but it obviously didn't work that way so now you have to start over again.

I wouldn't entrust him to a second chance at that but at the end of the day it's not up to me to make that decision.

Hopefully Georgie Porgie comes to his senses.

It is the desperation moves after the miss that kill me.

He compromised our future cap situations this year so he could go 8-8 and get pretty much stomped by all the good teams they played.