2021 NFL Draft Thread

[turtle28]

15 hours ago, Forge said:

Fwiw, in order to get traded, he's going to remove that 2022 guarantee. It's going to be a big deal for any team who wants him.  He's already said he's willing to work on the contract to facilitate the trade, and that's what is going to have to go. 

Secondarily, it's important to note that two thirds of his 2021 base salary cap hit is made up of unlikely to hit incentives. His actual salary is less than 4. So what's going to happen is, his base will count for 15 million in 2021, but it will be readjusted in 2022 and whatever team acquires him should get about an 11 million credit towards their 2022 salary cap. Theoretically, he could hit the escalators, but if he does, you're not complaining

As a 49ers fan, are you interested in Wentz? 
 

What do you think the 49ers do with their QB situation?

When Jimmy G plays the 49ers win more than they lose and last year they made it all the way to the Super Bowl with him although a few inaccurate throws from Jimmy G cost them a Super Bowl too.

[Forge]

Just now, turtle28 said:

As a 49ers fan, are you interested in Wentz? 
 

What do you think the 49ers do with their QB situation?

When Jimmy G plays the 49ers win more than they lose and last year they made it all the way to the Super Bowl with him although a few inaccurate throws from Jimmy G cost them a Super Bowl too.

Personally, I am not interested in Wentz. I think that there's obviously talent there, and maybe if you get him out of Philly and into a better situation / better coaching he can succeed again, but I mainly hate everything I hear about him mentally. He strikes me as a guy who's just too fragile upstairs. There's so much negative smoke about his personality that there has to be some fire there. 

That being said, I'd 100% understand if that was a move the 49ers made. If you can get him for reasonably cheap in trade, making comparable or less than Jimmy and believe he has more physical talent / upside, then it makes total sense (especially since the trade basically comes back around if you are able to trade Jimmy). So if Kyle likes the talent, I get it. Wentz has the talent to be more than one of those Jimmy / Goff / Kirk / Derek Carr types, and that's not the easiest thing to just track down. 

Right now, I think the 49ers are basically just in QB purgatory and it's a marriage of convenience more so than love. Jimmy isn't great, but he's not bad. I think he just slides into that middle grouping of a ton of guys between like 12-19, so basically he's just average. The problem for me is paying average guys 25-30 million dollars. When Shanny is your coach, you should have a 40 million dollar QB, or a sub 10 guy (rookie or prove it type guy). I just don't think that Jimmy brings enough to the table to make him worth the money. He does no heavy lifting and has a sky high turnover rate for how he approaches the game. If the niners can get better, they will...but they aren't too likely to  be able to get better. It's basically going to be Stafford and maybe Wentz depending on their eval of the latter who could be available. Bottom line is that this team is fine with Jimmy at the helm. He's probably holding them back some from really hitting bigger levels offensively,  but you can win with him. 

So I'm like 80% that they keep Jimmy on and either sign a better back up and draft a project in like rounds 5-7 or keep Jimmy, draft Mac Jones in rounds 2/3 as a back up, and let CJ Beathard and Josh Rosen compete for back up / Qb 3 role. I think the other 20% would be them making a big move up the draft to take their QB and cutting / trading jimmy, or swapping him out for another vet, which I find to be far less likely. 

[turtle28]

40 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/1346534539301183488?s=21 

Seems like picking a QB in round 1 is a good idea if we’re going to draft a QB this year.

[ovfd55]

22 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Seems like picking a QB in round 1 is a good idea if we’re going to draft a QB this year.

I'll disagree here based on that 
We're picking 19th 
the 24th is Aaron Rodgers who almost went #1(over Our current QB Alex Smith And shoulda went #( to Us instead of us drafting Carlos Rodger then Jason Campbell later in 1st)But he was 2nd QB drafted
1 32 is Drew Brees who was also 2nd QB draft that year behind Vick who only fell that far cause people thuaght he was too short(Same with the 75th pick)

Now the one you can make a case to be like this year is where we'd be drafting the 4th or 5th QB is the other 32 in Lamar Jackson

Also over half of  the ones not on Rookie deals aren't on the team that drafted them and one on a rookie deal in Trubiskey might not be on his team next year

[turtle28]

26 minutes ago, ovfd55 said:

I'll disagree here based on that 
We're picking 19th, the 24th is Aaron Rodgers who almost went #1(over Our current QB Alex Smith And shoulda went #9 to Us instead of us drafting Carlos Rodger then Jason Campbell later in 1st)But he was 2nd QB drafted

1 32 is Drew Brees who was also 2nd QB draft that year behind Vick who only fell that far cause people thuaght he was too short(Same with the 75th pick)

Now the one you can make a case to be like this year is where we'd be drafting the 4th or 5th QB is the other 32 in Lamar Jackson

Also over half of the ones not on Rookie deals aren't on the team that drafted them and one on a rookie deal in Trubiskey might not be on his team next year

Of the 14 playoff QBs this year and most years, only 3 weren’t 1st round picks. That’s all I’m saying.

Tom Brady & Russell Wilson continue to be an aberrations, as were Dak, Dalton, Foles & Kirk when their teams make the playoffs.

[ovfd55]

25 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Of the 14 playoff QBs this year and most years, only 3 weren’t 1st round picks. That’s all I’m saying.

Tom Brady & Russell Wilson continue to be an aberrations, as were Dak, Dalton, Foles & Kirk when their teams make the playoffs.

its a flawed way of looking at it though to me pretty sure 13 of the 18 teams that didn't make the playoffs started qbs for most of year that was 1st round picks to.Also as we know for every good 1st round QB there prob been 2 busts.

Also I'd be all for drafting a QB in top 10(if we didn't have to trade up) where a lot of the playoffs starters got picked, compared to where we going to pick where the guys picked there were the 2nd best qb or a player like Lamar the scouts over anlysed

[turtle28]

3 minutes ago, ovfd55 said:

its a flawed way of looking at it though to me pretty sure 13 of the 18 teams that didn't make the playoffs started qbs for most of year that was 1st round picks to.Also as we know for every good 1st round QB there prob been 2 busts.

Also I'd be all for drafting a QB in top 10(if we didn't have to trade up) where a lot of the playoffs starters got picked, compared to where we going to pick where the guys picked there were the 2nd best qb or a player like Lamar the scouts over anlysed

I think it was @e16bball or @Woz who pointed this out pages ago that for every first round QB bust there are dozens more who bust after first round and that’s proven out bc most of the starters in the league are 1st round picks.

I agree that getting around or into the top 10 would give us a better chance at hitting on a QB but at the same time picking in where we are picking gives us a better chance at hitting than any of the other rounds after the 1st combined most likely.

[ovfd55]

1 minute ago, turtle28 said:

I think it was @e16bball or @Woz who pointed this out pages ago that for every first round QB bust there are dozens more who bust after first round and that’s proven out bc most of the starters in the league are 1st round picks.

I agree that getting around or into the top 10 would give us a better chance at hitting on a QB but at the same time picking in where we are picking gives us a better chance at hitting than any of the other rounds after the 1st combined most likely.

I guess it depends on who falls if Trey Lance falls I wouldn't be mad at picking him,but force picking Trask or Jones I'd be mad at think it would be better to pull a broncos and pick a need 1st and hope they fall to 2nd like Locke did.

 

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, ovfd55 said:

I guess it depends on who falls if Trey Lance falls I wouldn't be mad at picking him,but force picking Trask or Jones I'd be mad at think it would be better to pull a broncos and pick a need 1st and hope they fall to 2nd like Lock did.

I agree with that too, and we could always trade up in the 2nd to make sure we get one of those two QBs too if that’s what we want to do. I’m not even sold we take a QB in the draft. I think it entirely depends on what happens in free agency and if Alex retires or not. I think a lot of people lose sight of that fact that Kyle Allen is only going to be 25 years old in March. He’s still a developing QB and from what I can tell he seems to be the young QB that Scotty Turner & Rivera want to develop for the time being.

[e16bball]

My big refrain is and will continue to be that for the last 15 years, the vast majority of QBs who have turned out to be legit franchise guys™️ are off the board in the first 12 picks.

I’ve previously used the “first half of the 1st round” as the range, but we really can refine it down even further — the only QBs taken between 13 and 16 during that span have been EJ Manuel and Dwayne Haskins. Not sure if anyone is familiar with either of those players, but it doesn’t appear they were particularly successful. 

If a guy falls further than that, it’s a real longshot that he’ll become a legit franchise QB. In 15 years, you’ve got one bona fide HOFer (Russell Wilson), one young burgeoning superstar (Lamar Jackson), a couple very good QBs (Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins), and then a few guys who have been kinda middle-of-the-road starters for a number of years (Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton). That’s it. In 15 years. 

It’s always possible that you’ll snag one of those very good players that the rest of league whiffed on. But the odds are not good, at all.

[e16bball]

When you look at the two stars who made it out of the top 12, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson, you can very easily pinpoint the reason why each fell down the board. 

Wilson fell because he was short. I really don’t know that there was any other reason behind it. Maybe he was a one-year wonder suspect, his numbers did take a huge jump after transferring to Wisconsin. But he was incredible in his one season there, and based on the athletic profile and the off-the-charts intangibles, that performance probably would have shot him up the board if it wasn’t for his height. The league has clearly corrected itself on this error, based on Mayfield and Murray going #1 in consecutive drafts. 

Lamar fell down the board because people thought he couldn’t throw accurately enough and no one believed in the run-heavy QB anymore after so many failures. Obviously his accuracy numbers from college weren’t great, but both he and draft classmate Josh Allen have shown that this actually can be remedied to a significant extent in the NFL. I’m not sure there’s been anyone quite like Lamar that’s come along to show that the league has learned its lesson, but Murray as a run-heavy QB going #1 seems to be suggestive of it at least. 

In both cases, there was something specific in the guy’s profile that turned people off despite magnificent college resumes and remarkable physical talents. For Wilson it was his height, and for Lamar it was his run-heavy style. People didn’t want to bite because they didn’t believe in that “type” of player being successful. 

Applying that concept to this draft, the guy that sort of sticks out to me as a possibility to fit that criteria is Trey Lance. Perhaps in a draft with so many high-major stars, teams will turn up their nose at an FCS kid? Maybe that’s the part of his profile that doesn’t really have any bearing on his ability but could cause him to fall further than he otherwise would?

Obviously, I’m reaching a little here, because Carson Wentz went #2 overall from the same school just a few years ago. But I think that’s the sort of thing we’re looking for — something in the profile that would cause teams to write a guy off, despite him being fully capable of being a star.

[turtle28]

I’m so happy that finally again the best player in college football won the Heisman and not just the best QB. 
 

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by turtle28

[turtle28]

@e16bball As we know the difference between the Carson Wentz draft & this years draft is that this year there are 3 QBs definitely above Trey Lance. Wentz didn’t have that issue, he was the 2nd best QB in the draft by a wide margin bc 2016 was a weak draft for QBs and this year isn’t. And obviously in 2016 people had Dak rated incredibly wrong. I’m still shocked at how well Dak has developed as a QB.

Lance being the 4th best QB prospect in this draft likely puts him the teens.

Edited January 6, 2021 by turtle28

[MikeT14]

I don't know anything about this guy, but the headline has me intrigued lol

https://irish.nbcsports.com/2021/01/08/notre-dame-te-tommy-tremble-heads-to-nfl-as-run-blocker-extraordinaire/ 

[ripsean21]

2 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

I don't know anything about this guy, but the headline has me intrigued lol

https://irish.nbcsports.com/2021/01/08/notre-dame-te-tommy-tremble-heads-to-nfl-as-run-blocker-extraordinaire/ 

Very talented player one of my value picks in class I believe.