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2021 NFL Draft Thread

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Kyle Trask might be the forerunner for the Heisman Trophy. His Comp % A YPT and TD to Int ratio is incredible. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Troublez said:

Where is all this criticism about his "Arm" coming from? Have you watched much of Kyle Trask? I have not seen a throw that he cannot make at the next level. Curious what you are seeing that I am not.
 

The scouting profiles I am reading on-line seem to indicate that his arm is strong. 
 

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021ktrask.php

I’ve probably watched him play 6 or 8 times now. I don’t think I’m missing anything. Maybe he has a more high powered weapon in the armory that he’s not firing, but I don’t see it.

It’s not a *bad* arm — not the Colt McCoy pop gun — but I would take issue with anyone who says it’s a strong arm. If his arm is “strong,” then what word do you have set aside for guys like Lance and Fields and Lawrence? When comparing prospects, everybody can’t have “A” grade arm strength. For Trask, it’s clearly not on the same level as those guys. I don’t think it’s even on the same level as Wilson, who I have a notch below those three. So call it “C” grade arm strength, I guess.

I think people like Walter might get fooled by his very large size and “pocket passer” profile and assume the arm must be better than it really is. It’s made definite progress since last year (when it was really a big problem), as @PARROTHEAD pointed out in his post. I think now it’s a sufficient NFL arm, but it’s not an asset.

As an aside, I’m a little concerned that I’m spending this much time talking about arm strength, which I personally believe is one of the more overrated QB traits. A strong arm means little if you don’t have accuracy, good ball placement, touch, and of course all the mental game. And very much to his credit, Trask is ahead of much of the field in those first 3 categories (I don’t know much about his intangibles), which is the reason he’s in this discussion in the first place. 

But you asked why scouts aren’t higher on this guy. Well, I think the reason is because he’s a pure pocket passer with limited mobility and a “good enough” arm. There’s not much to dream on there. His game looks very little like the most successful young QBs out there right now, the Mahomes and Jackson and Allen and Watson and Prescott and Burrow and Herbert types. Because of his physical limitations, his game actually resembles QBs much older than him. Which is cool, and could turn out to be great — but it takes an awfully long time to develop that sort of savvy and mastery at the NFL level.

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1 hour ago, Troublez said:

Where is all this criticism about his "Arm" coming from? Have you watched much of Kyle Trask? I have not seen a throw that he cannot make at the next level. Curious what you are seeing that I am not.
 

The scouting profiles I am reading on-line seem to indicate that his arm is strong. 
 

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021ktrask.php

I think it’s pretty clear Trask has a “good arm,” when @e16bball talks about arm strength he’s referring to “elite arm strength,” And I don’t think Trask has that.

I will say in regards to Mac Jones folks might want to watch his TD throw to to Devonta Smith in the red zone yesterday. Devonta Smith was covered in the back of the endzone coming across, Jones threw a laser past the defender and right into the arms of the diving Smith.

I’m not sure arm strength is an issue with him.

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3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Who’s Quincy Avery?

He's worked under Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow, two coaches well-known for their work with QBs.  He works with QBs at all levels- he's got programs for middle schoolers, high schoolers, college guys and does a good amount of prep for the pros.  Deshaun Watson will review every game with Avery as well.  He's also working extensively with Justin Fields right now as well.  Avery is a well-known name right now, and parents are paying quite a bit for their kids to be tutored by him.  In a couple years, his client base is going to be huge since he has only recently started his company.  

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@e16bball I like the BigBen comparison for Trask. If we happened to get him or Jones in the 2nd or after trading back into the 1st after taking Sewell, Chase, Parsons or Devonta Smith, I’d be pleased. Jones in a lot of people’s eyes has played better than Tua the last year and 1 month at Bama. He’s accurate and I think has better arm strength than people are giving him credit for.

I 💯 agree about not being as concerned about arm strength, it matters for sure, you can’t have a noodle arm QB and expect to win a lot games bc of your passing game but accuracy is so important. Drew Brees is a great example. Drew has never had elite arm strength even before his shoulder surgery in 2005 and it hasn’t mattered bc he’s the most accurate QB in the NFL.

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3 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

@e16bball I like the BigBen comparison for Trask. If we happened to get him or Jones in the 2nd or after trading back into the 1st after taking Sewell, Chase, Parsons or Devonta Smith, I’d be pleased. Jones in a lot of people’s eyes has played better than Tua the last year and 1 month at Bama. He’s accurate and I think has better arm strength than people are giving him credit for.

I 💯 agree about not being as concerned about arm strength, it matters for sure, you can’t have a noodle arm QB and expect to win a lot games bc of your passing game but accuracy is so important. Drew Brees is a great example. Drew has never had elite arm strength even before his shoulder surgery in 2005 and it hasn’t mattered bc he’s the most accurate QB in the NFL.

Who was the last second round pick at QB that had sustained success and won playoff games and contended for Super Bowls? Not being a smart *** here either. It has to be Drew Brees and to me that’s just insane that so many QBs taken in the second round just don’t succeed. If we don’t pick a QB in the first round then I’d rather just skip it altogether or make a play for Darnold. 

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On 11/20/2020 at 7:09 PM, turtle28 said:

Fassel was an avg HC, I think he would’ve been in the Gruden range - which was essentially what Gibbs 2.0 was. And, at least Fassel got to the Super Bowl in 2000. They went 12-4 that year, yeah who wants that?

He did that once.

His other six years as a head coach in the NFL: 10-5-1 (1st round playoff loss), 8-8, 7-9, 7-9, 10-6 (1st round playoff loss), and 4-12. Total: 46-49-1.

If you prefer, we can pull a gymnastics scoring system (throw out the best and worst record) and you get: 42-37-1. A nice average coach who would occasionally take the team to the playoffs and lose in the first round. No real hope of doing better than that.

Sort of the ceiling of the Snyder era.

 

Again, no team gave him a shot at head coach after 2003.

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10 minutes ago, Woz said:

He did that once.

His other six years as a head coach in the NFL: 10-5-1 (1st round playoff loss), 8-8, 7-9, 7-9, 10-6 (1st round playoff loss), and 4-12. Total: 46-49-1.

If you prefer, we can pull a gymnastics scoring system (throw out the best and worst record) and you get: 42-37-1. A nice average coach who would occasionally take the team to the playoffs and lose in the first round. No real hope of doing better than that.

Sort of the ceiling of the Snyder era.

 

Again, no team gave him a shot at head coach after 2003.

Well we haven’t done that since 1991 so, again, was he a better option than Zorn to at least continue what Gibbs was doing as our HC from 08 on? I’d say yes.

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20 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Who was the last second round pick at QB that had sustained success and won playoff games and contended for Super Bowls? Not being a smart *** here either. It has to be Drew Brees and to me that’s just insane that so many QBs taken in the second round just don’t succeed. If we don’t pick a QB in the first round then I’d rather just skip it altogether or make a play for Darnold. 

Colin Kapernick

So, you’re telling me all we need to do is trade back into the first round from our 2nd round pick and take Mac Jones and Kyle Trask and you’re good with the pick?

Edited by turtle28

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5 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Colin Kapernick

So, you’re telling me all we need to do is trade back into the first round from our 2nd round pick and take Mac Jones and Kyle Trask and you’re good with the pick?

I’m not sure you can really count Kaep because it was basically one great year? 
 

No, what I’m saying is history has shown second round QBs do not fair so well. I’d prefer not to pick a QB if we aren’t doing it in the first 20 picks of the draft. I’d much rather get Sewell and Moses or Waddle in the second round than just take it a QB to take one. Also, I’m not saying Jones or Trask are going to suck, just saying I think there’s a talent gap between those two and Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson. 

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On 11/21/2020 at 11:29 AM, e16bball said:

But the reality is, nothing is more important than having a young QB. Nothing else is even close, in all of American sports for that matter, let alone in just the NFL. Some teams aren’t in the market for one, but I’d say probably at least a third to half of the league’s teams are somewhere between “desperately need” and “could probably use” a young potential franchise QB — whether they don’t have any QB at all, have a mediocre QB, or need a long-term heir to the throne of an aging hero. 

By my count, that might be a bit low.

Draft pick as of week 10 in parentheses (the playoff picks (19-32) will not align with Tankathon's since they "project" winners and losers in the playoffs by marking the lowest winning team losers in each round until the "games" are done)

  • Could/Should Consider Drafting a QB
    • Desperately need a QB
      • NY Jets (1)
      • Jacksonville (2)
      • Washington (3)
      • Dallas (4) [dependent on what they do with Dak]
      • Denver (11)
      • San Francisco (12)
      • New England (15) [dependent on what they do with Cam]
      • Chicago (16)
      • Indianapolis (23) [I figure they'll re-sign Rivers, but that's just a Band-Aid]
    • Should consider a new QB
      • NY Giants (8) [I don't think they give up on Jones this year, but they probably should]
      • Carolina (9) [probably won't move on from Bridgewater at this point]
      • Minnesota (14) [four weeks ago, they would be in the "desperately need" category; would return there if they choose to let Cousins walk]
      • Tennessee (18) [they are starting to have buyer's remorse on that contract; probably cannot get out of it at this juncture]
    • Have their QB but should consider succession in near future
      • Atlanta (10)
      • Detroit (13)
      • Tampa Bay (27)
      • New Orleans (30)
      • Pittsburgh (32)
  • Could/Should NOT Consider Drafting a QB
    • Just drafted a QB
      • LA Chargers (5)
      • Cincinnati (7)
      • Miami (22)
    • Have their QB
      • Houston (6) [except they traded their 1st round pick to Miami]
      • Cleveland (17)
      • Philadelphia (19) [whether that is Wentz or Hurts, I'm not sure]
      • Arizona (20)
      • Seattle (21)
      • LA Rams (24)
      • Baltimore (25)
      • Las Vegas (26) [only here due to their play of late]
      • Buffalo (28)
      • Green Bay (29) [they've already addressed their succession problems ... perhaps a year too early, though]
      • Kansas City (31)
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21 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I’m not sure you can really count Kaep because it was basically one great year? 
 

No, what I’m saying is history has shown second round QBs do not fair so well. I’d prefer not to pick a QB if we aren’t doing it in the first 20 picks of the draft. I’d much rather get Sewell and Moses or Waddle in the second round than just take it a QB to take one. Also, I’m not saying Jones or Trask are going to suck, just saying I think there’s a talent gap between those two and Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson. 

He was good for a few years then he hurt his shoulder and started doing the off the field stuff. Still, playoff wins & almost won a super bowl. He checked those bench marks for you.

I think Andy Dalton would qualify as sustained success, can’t help that his bengal teams didn’t win bunch vs better teams in the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

No, what I’m saying is history has shown second round QBs do not fair so well. I’d prefer not to pick a QB if we aren’t doing it in the first 20 picks of the draft. I’d much rather get Sewell and Moses or Waddle in the second round than just take it a QB to take one. Also, I’m not saying Jones or Trask are going to suck, just saying I think there’s a talent gap between those two and Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson. 

Really, really this. 

NFL teams have not figured out how to tell who absolutely will be a star QB. But they’ve gotten pretty good at ruling out the guys who won’t be one. If the whole league is willing to pass on you, the odds are pretty darn long that you’re gonna be a star one day. 

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2 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I’m not sure you can really count Kaep because it was basically one great year? 
 

No, what I’m saying is history has shown second round QBs do not fair so well. I’d prefer not to pick a QB if we aren’t doing it in the first 20 picks of the draft. I’d much rather get Sewell and Moses or Waddle in the second round than just take it a QB to take one. Also, I’m not saying Jones or Trask are going to suck, just saying I think there’s a talent gap between those two and Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson. 

That makes no sense. Sewell is going to 5, Moses & Waddle will probably also get picks in the 1st round.

I definitely agree I’d rather take the QB first but I also don’t want to reach for one just to take the next best QB like say Wilson higher than other players who are ranked as better players bc Wilson is a QB and Sewell, Chase, DSmith & Parsons don’t play QB. I don’t think we should force the selection of a QB in round 1.

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