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What is Sam Darnold's Trade Value?

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I could see INDY being a good fit.   Solid OL, players at the skill positions.  Reich did well to get some solid play from Brissett.  Darnold has a decent amount of starting experience and has had some nice games.  But the crap organization that is NYJ has done him no favors in his development.  

TB might be a fair option after Brady.  Arians would like the gunslinger mentality that Darnold seems to possess.  Evans, Godwin, Miller would be a nice trio.  

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1 hour ago, drew39k said:

The Jets have done that time and again(as have many other teams, FYI) and it's a strategy the constantly fails and leads to years of franchise struggles.  Teams that are consistently relevant do so by building a team and creating identity then shaping their QB room. 

It's great that the Cardinals may have found a franchise guy in Murray, but let's not pretend there aren't weapons in place for Murray to rely on. He's had Fitz there to bail him out and now has Hopkins too. In fact, I just watched Murray make a bunch of bad throws against a terrible Jets team. The kid has talent but is prone to just as many bad plays as Darnold. The primary difference is that he has player that can bail him out while Darnold doesn't. 

the jets have literally taken 1 QB in the first round in the last 10 years, and before darnold wasted a few years with fitzpatrick and mccown

Edited by Turnobili
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10 hours ago, JetsandI said:

Colts and Steelers may make a trade for Darnold in the mid season if their starting qb isn't able to continue playing for respective team.

I would doubt the Jets trading Darnold mid-season unless it’s for a 1st round pick. Theirs no upside to it.

If they trade him and somehow they don’t end up with the #1 pick now they’re starting over with a QB that we can’t necessarily say has more potential than Darnold in Fields and Lance.

Even if their potential is slightly higher, they would be rookies having to learn and produce with a young offensive cast. I would think Darnold has the best chance at producing with such.

Thus it would make sense to hold on to Darnold entire season and if they have a shot at Lawrence with the #1 pick, then you likely take it. If not, trade out of the pick at the top (I’m sure some team will be willing to pay a price for Fields) and then use the draft to oversaturate the OL with talent while getting Darnold a few more skill position options to run with.

We saw what a terrible OL did to Baker Mayfield last season vs this season. If the Jets don’t finish 1st in the Lawrence sweepstakes, than having Darnold with far better upgraded OL pieces wouldn’t be the worst plan B you could hope for. All the while teams like the Steelers and Colts might get more desperate (and willing to spend a 1st round pick) in the event that their options for a legit QB with potential dry up after FA.

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So all in all I think Darnold either stays out or gets traded for a late 1st round pick. With a 2nd round pick as his worst case scenario.

In a college season impacted by Covid-19 that will make for a more difficult evaluation of talent, I’d be more likely to gamble away a 1st round pick for a more experienced young QB with potential like Darnold than doing the same for a guy like Trey Lance.

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I'd give a 3rd because that's what the Raiders like to trade away. 

In reality, I'm not giving more than a 3rd. He might have some upside, but the Jets are almost assuredly going to take a QB in rd 1 again. They won't have the bargaining power for Darnold once they do. 

At this very moment, he's a QB with a lot of tape, few highlights, a couple of injuries, possibly tainted by his current team, and (rumor I heard) is somewhat difficult to coach. 

If you're actively looking for a QB (rd 1 or 2) you're really just better off drafting someone you really really like. The question would become "We've seen Darnold not play well and he's not a transcendent talent. Is he good? Is he better than who we're targeting?". And you're picking early. 

If you're not picking early, you probably don't need a QB enough to trade a 1st, maybe not even a 2nd. 

Now, strictly personally, I'd trade a 2nd for him in a fantasy draft. But I have to imagine that his real-world trade value peaks at a 3rd and risks dropping by draft day and assuredly after. 

If anyone trades above a 3rd, my guess is that it will be a team that manages to acquire an extra 2nd rounder and pulls the trigger to ensure getting him.

Edited by ronjon1990

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15 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

True, but a team like the Steelers, Saints, or Bucs could be looking for their next guy as well. 

Rivers and Brissett are both free agents after this season so I could see the Colts trading for Darnold. 

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3 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

I'd give a 3rd because that's what the Raiders like to trade away. 

In reality, I'm not giving more than a 3rd. He might have some upside, but the Jets are almost assuredly going to take a QB in rd 1 again. They won't have the bargaining power for Darnold once they do. 

The Cardinals got a 2nd and a 5th for Rosen on draft day after they had just selected Murray. 

 

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A late round pick. He has not great tape out there and is making more than inexperienced backup money. A team would have had to love him coming out to give more than a 5th.

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6 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

So all in all I think Darnold either stays out or gets traded for a late 1st round pick. With a 2nd round pick as his worst case scenario.

In a college season impacted by Covid-19 that will make for a more difficult evaluation of talent, I’d be more likely to gamble away a 1st round pick for a more experienced young QB with potential like Darnold than doing the same for a guy like Trey Lance.

I think the discussion of Darnolds trade value also has to take philosophy of roster building into account.

I see some who wants to trade Darnold for whatever he is deemed worth, and then pick Lawrence/Lance/someoneelse. My opinion is, that a rookie QB would essentially end up in the same bad situation as Darnold baring an unbelievable turnaround of talent on the roster that would require them to hit on most of their draft picks and aquire a lot of talent through free agency.

If that was not the case, then they would end up "wasting" 2-4 years of a young QB contract.

My approach would be the Miami Dolphins way of doing this. Waiting a year to take the QB for the future, even though it would mean giving up on Lawrence. 

And for those who think you can't give up the opportunity to draft the best QB in the class, look at the last many drafts and see where the best QB's come from. Teams get better QB's when they have a good team around them.

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They should trade him for whatever they can get. People decided in their minds that Sam was a great QB before he stepped on an NFL team. Every time he makes a great play it's evidence of his talent, but all of his bad plays are everyone else's fault but him. Not only that but he's mentally fragile. He breaks down every time he starts making mistakes and doesn't seem to have anyone that believes in him on the roster.

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Box of Juicy Fruits, maybe a Box of Bon Bons thrown in too depending on the Rd?

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Jets only trade Sam if they land Lawrence.  They aren't dumping him unless they get a clear upgrade.  They would likely go all in on repairing the offense and give him another year before trading him.  If they do end up getting 1 it's a no brainier to take Lawrence.  They have prices of the OL in place and with their cap space and picks could out Lawrence in a good position to be successful and not repeat the mistakes they did with Sam.  I think JD is much smarter than Mac was and will get his QB a good OL and weapons and not continually draft DTs, ILBs and SSs in round 1.

I would think a 2 would get it done if Sam was to hit the market.  I think whoever gets him is getting a solid QB but he needs to have a good team around him.  He'll never be the guy to lift his teammates up like the great ones do.

People saying the Jets should pass on Lawrence need their heads examined.  

Edited by Rockice_8
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10 hours ago, Turnobili said:

the jets have literally taken 1 QB in the first round in the last 10 years, and before darnold wasted a few years with fitzpatrick and mccown

Sanchez was drafted at 6 overall in 2009. He had 3 different offensive coordinators and they routinely castoff the receivers he had the most chemistry with. Then they stupidly ended his Jets career by putting him under center in the 4th quarter of a preseason game , protected by third string lineman. Predictably,  he got sacked and injured.

They also used the 39th pick on Gino Smith and did him no favors by giving him Jeremy kerley, Stephen Hill and David Nelson... Kerley was a decent slot guy, but that's it.

They used a 2nd on Hackenberg. Not sure I can fault them for not playing him as he apparently SUPER sucked, but they still used a 2nd on a guy that was that bad. 

Then they picked Darnold and have done him incredibly dirty. Look at the wrs he is throwing to, the line that is blocking for him and the god awful play calling and tell me he ever had a chance.

That's four high picks used at the Qb slot over 11 seasons. If it takes 2-3 years to know if a guy busts or not that's pretty close to on schedule with regard to spending capital on the position. They've simply failed on a massive level when it comes to building a team that can allow a QB to be successful. 

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2 hours ago, drew39k said:

Sanchez was drafted at 6 overall in 2009. He had 3 different offensive coordinators and they routinely castoff the receivers he had the most chemistry with. Then they stupidly ended his Jets career by putting him under center in the 4th quarter of a preseason game , protected by third string lineman. Predictably,  he got sacked and injured.

They also used the 39th pick on Gino Smith and did him no favors by giving him Jeremy kerley, Stephen Hill and David Nelson... Kerley was a decent slot guy, but that's it.

They used a 2nd on Hackenberg. Not sure I can fault them for not playing him as he apparently SUPER sucked, but they still used a 2nd on a guy that was that bad. 

Then they picked Darnold and have done him incredibly dirty. Look at the wrs he is throwing to, the line that is blocking for him and the god awful play calling and tell me he ever had a chance.

That's four high picks used at the Qb slot over 11 seasons. If it takes 2-3 years to know if a guy busts or not that's pretty close to on schedule with regard to spending capital on the position. They've simply failed on a massive level when it comes to building a team that can allow a QB to be successful. 

i dont think Geno or Hackenberg were going to succeed anywhere from what we saw, and what their post-Jets careers have looked like anyway. Sanchez was the golden boy to start his career, but we all know he was protecting quite a bit by the structure of that team. 

drafting whiffs in geno and hackenberg does not justify passing on a prospect as good as Lawrence. it's a sunk cost fallacy.

i dont even think i can say with great confidence that Darnold is NOT the guy for them, but I still think dont think you can justify passing lawrence given the opportunity... certainly if the reasoning is based on other QB decisions made in the previous decade

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7 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Cardinals got a 2nd and a 5th for Rosen on draft day after they had just selected Murray. 

 

It should’ve been more had Keim not botched the entire thing by trying to keep it a secret until they made the pick.  
 

Darnold is the 49ers QB next year.  

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