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What is Sam Darnold's Trade Value?

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1 hour ago, Turnobili said:

i dont think Geno or Hackenberg were going to succeed anywhere from what we saw, and what their post-Jets careers have looked like anyway. Sanchez was the golden boy to start his career, but we all know he was protecting quite a bit by the structure of that team. 

drafting whiffs in geno and hackenberg does not justify passing on a prospect as good as Lawrence. it's a sunk cost fallacy.

i dont even think i can say with great confidence that Darnold is NOT the guy for them, but I still think dont think you can justify passing lawrence given the opportunity... certainly if the reasoning is based on other QB decisions made in the previous decade

I'm not arguing that Smith and Hack were or would have been failures elsewhere, I'm bringing them up because you said the Jets have only tried once in the past ten years to develop a QB.

They've tried four times and have failed to put a real supporting cast around them most of that time.(year two of Sanchez being the exception)

Lawrence is a great, hyped prospect much like Darnold was. He will be a top pick in the draft much like Sanchez. Expecting him to succeed where they failed simply because he is the top qb prospect is a bad idea. Can he succeed,sure, but it will take a committed effort to team building and getting lucky with a head coaching hire( hiring a decent hc is something else they've struggled mightily with)

At some point  just continuing to hope a single qb can completely save a poorly built and coach team isn't going to happen. This Trading Lawrence represents a chance to inject so much talent into the team. This would allow the next qb a chance to have success.

 

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On 10/12/2020 at 12:04 PM, El Ramster said:

3rd

Yep. I'd take it and run.

The Jets predictably did this to themselves when they traded away Bridgewater. They deserve it.

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I think that Darnold is a franchise QB if given the right team. The Jets are obviously a extremely bad team. Adam Gase is a disaster of a coach. I just know that when Darnold just plays he looks fantastic, but hes also hurt by a terrible team and bad coaching. Hes very talented and a good kid who works really hard, you put him on a better organization you may find out how good he can be. 

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On 10/12/2020 at 4:39 PM, drew39k said:

I'm a jets fan and 100% against picking Lawrence and trading Darnold. Though that's mostly independent of my belief in Darnold as the guy. Honestly I'm fairly certain the Jets ruined him. Probably gonna need to sit for a year somewhere and get plugged into an offense that has an identity.

The Jets cannot continue to think the answer to building a competitive team is a savior QB. They need to build a team. Get a head coach in there and establish an offense. Build up the offense while Darnold or a veteran take snaps. Once the team has a solid foundation, if Darnold has failed, sign a vet and draft someone to sit and learn for a year. 

To just keep throwing talent young qbs into a dumpster fire of an offense is idiotic.

All that said, I do think the Jets are dumb, so I do think they take Lawrence. I'd hope they could get a 2nd for Darnold but, I'm guessing it would be a third(maybe conditionally rising to a second or even first)

I totally understand the reasoning behind this approach but wouldn't a better idea be to draft Lawrence if you have the #1 pick - I'm assuming it is generally agreed that he's a superb prospect and viewed as better than Darnold - and sit him for a year behind a veteran QB (Alex Smith, Mariota or Fitzpatrick maybe) while you add pieces on the OL and weapons in FA and the rest of the draft. You have a few more picks from the Adams trade and can trade Darnold, I would think someone would stump up a 2nd. Just focus on offense all off season, Becton is a good start and Crowder and Bell can really help out a young QB so the O can be made respectable at least I think.

Why risk missing out on such a clean prospect and then trying to find a suitable guy a year or two down the line? Maybe there won't be a great prospect there or maybe if the team is built up sufficiently they play themselves out of contention for the top couple QBs in 2022 or 2023. 

I do like Darnold but he has been put in an impossible situation and seems to have lost his confidence, it's unclear whether he'll ever reach his potential but I don't see how you can turn down a great prospect like Lawrence on the blind faith you can pick a guy up in 2 years time. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush IMO. 

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Just going to say that it’s sad we’re even talking about this.

Darnold has been short changed. Whoever gets him, in the event we trade him, is getting a guy who can be a good QB. Everything that could go wrong went wrong for him. Health issues, bad coaching, a horrendous OL his first two years and poor playmakers.

There are a couple areas I think are his fault though. He’s shown poor deep ball accuracy. And he can let the game get away from him, press and then make costly errors.

I still think he can be an above average QB. But he’ll need to go to the right situation.

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I could see the Bears or Cowboys being a good landing spot for Darnold.  Maybe even the Vikings, but I wouldn't want them to trade for him. 

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2 hours ago, DirtyDez said:

It should’ve been more had Keim not botched the entire thing by trying to keep it a secret until they made the pick.  

Darnold is the 49ers QB next year.  

And Darnold has flashed more potential than Rosen ever did plus this years QB class sucks after the top 2-3 guys. 

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10 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Cardinals got a 2nd and a 5th for Rosen on draft day after they had just selected Murray. 

 

And got seared by it. 

Rosen was 1 year removed from being drafted by a terrible team, with zero weapons, and a lame duck coach. 

Rosen was a relative unknown. I would argue his trade value was higher than Darnold's given the situation in Arizona. I would've given more for a guy in Rosen's position and what was known at the time than I would give for Darnold. 

It's the difference between grabbing last year's 1st Round QB away from a team that was beyond awful and underwent an entire schematic makeover and grabbing someone who has flashed a bit but is also bordering on a bust. 

Darnold has had 3 seasons to prove to be "the guy". He hasn't and if the Jets try to get out from under him, it's a murky situation as best. 

I'm not saying it's fair or that Rosen is better than Darnold, just that with what was known and visible at the time, Rosen's upside was arguably higher. Like I said, if I were partaking in a fantasy draft, I'd gladly trade a 2nd for Darnold and hope he worked out. But in real life? No way. 

Besides, the Dolphins haven't been known to make particularly good trades. I would expect them to overpay. Going into 2021, the teams that would likely entertain a trade for Darnold aren't laughing stock organizations. The 49ers? Colts? The Patriots? The "bad" teams largely have their QB situation taken care of (Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins*, Giants?, Vikings, etc) or are going to be in position for Lawrence, Fields, or Lance and whoever inevitably rises at season's end. Point being, I don't see 2021 being a seller's market for offloading a former 1st rounder who flopped enough to move on from. The Jets will likely have limited suitors, and for once it won't be franchises that suck at trade value (unless Gruden loves the guy enough to throw a 1st, 2nd, Carr, Jacobs, and Waller at them...). 

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I never have got the Darnold hype as the second coming nor will I ever get the hype.

It's insane Everytime I talk about him to knowledgeable football fans I hear nothing but praise but I just never saw it with him.

I really would love to think of a player who comes close but I'm struggling to think of one. 

As far as trades QBs are most valuable on their rookie deals and he spent a majority of his in a dumpster fire organization.

I can't envision a head coach and GM hitching their wagons to Sam. I'd imagine the picks in the trade would be a second and a conditional pick that can go from a 3 to a 1 based off of performance escalators and such.

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6 hours ago, drew39k said:

Sanchez was drafted at 6 overall in 2009. He had 3 different offensive coordinators and they routinely castoff the receivers he had the most chemistry with. Then they stupidly ended his Jets career by putting him under center in the 4th quarter of a preseason game , protected by third string lineman. Predictably,  he got sacked and injured.

They also used the 39th pick on Gino Smith and did him no favors by giving him Jeremy kerley, Stephen Hill and David Nelson... Kerley was a decent slot guy, but that's it.

They used a 2nd on Hackenberg. Not sure I can fault them for not playing him as he apparently SUPER sucked, but they still used a 2nd on a guy that was that bad. 

Then they picked Darnold and have done him incredibly dirty. Look at the wrs he is throwing to, the line that is blocking for him and the god awful play calling and tell me he ever had a chance.

That's four high picks used at the Qb slot over 11 seasons. If it takes 2-3 years to know if a guy busts or not that's pretty close to on schedule with regard to spending capital on the position. They've simply failed on a massive level when it comes to building a team that can allow a QB to be successful. 

Sanchez had about the best supporting cast any young QB could ask for.  They had the number 1 defense and the number 1 rush attack as a rookie.  Saying they didn't give Sanchez the tools to succeed is just flat out wrong.

You could have put Hackenburg on the All pro team and he wouldn't have been good.  Same goes for Geno for that matter.  He's a career backup.

Things started to decline for Sanchez for sure but he never improved which is why the team declined.  Can't just hope to have the number 1 defense and rush attack every year propping you up, eventually the cap caught up to them and he clearly wasn't a starting QB.

I firmly believe that Maccagnan ruined Darnold though.  After drafting a talented young QB he drafted 0 offensive linemen and 0 weapons in the premium rounds.  Actually just one colossal bust in Hill with guys like A Rob and I think Keenan Allen on the board.  Gase was the coach to put the final nail in that coffin.  Between those two he was definitely ruined.  It's incredible how awful a coach Gase is.  I hated the hirer but even the biggest pessimist couldn't have thought he was this bad.

I really think JD would build around a young QB I just think it's too late for that to be Sam.  He made the OL a priority which is key for young QBs so if their is a God the Jets will land Lawrence and JD is allowed to hire a real coach.

The narrative that the Jets ruin QBs just isn't the case outside of Darnold.  The rest were just not good unfortunately.

Edited by Rockice_8

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3 hours ago, drew39k said:

I'm not arguing that Smith and Hack were or would have been failures elsewhere, I'm bringing them up because you said the Jets have only tried once in the past ten years to develop a QB.

They've tried four times and have failed to put a real supporting cast around them most of that time.(year two of Sanchez being the exception)

Lawrence is a great, hyped prospect much like Darnold was. He will be a top pick in the draft much like Sanchez. Expecting him to succeed where they failed simply because he is the top qb prospect is a bad idea. Can he succeed,sure, but it will take a committed effort to team building and getting lucky with a head coaching hire( hiring a decent hc is something else they've struggled mightily with)

At some point  just continuing to hope a single qb can completely save a poorly built and coach team isn't going to happen. This Trading Lawrence represents a chance to inject so much talent into the team. This would allow the next qb a chance to have success.

 

i  never said that. what i did say is that the jets only invested 1 first round pick in the QB position

lawnrece isn't a "great, hyped prospect much like darnold was." darnold wasn't in the same tier of prospect as Lawrence, who is much more in the Andrew Luck category. if he busts, it will be a monumental affair that will have scouts scratching their heads for years to come. not to say people didnt believe in darnold during the draft, but we're talking apples and oranges

i agree that there are ways the jets can improve their situation to make it more condusive for a QB to be developed. clearly they lack weapons, and eveith with becton looking good, they could still to better on the line. still, getting a cant-miss qb talent is one that nobody in their right mind would pass up

Edited by Turnobili
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still think you would pretty easily get a 2nd for Darnold. the colts, Football Team seem obvious. there are a bunch of potential landing spots. heck i could see the Bucs doing it.

 i think a good team that's not going to be picking top 15-20 would even ponder sending a first for him, like the Patriots. might be a stretch, but it wouldnt shock me.

i think he has more value now than Rosen did during the draft last year

Edited by Turnobili

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2 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Rosen was a relative unknown. I would argue his trade value was higher than Darnold's given the situation in Arizona. I would've given more for a guy in Rosen's position and what was known at the time than I would give for Darnold. 

It's the difference between grabbing last year's 1st Round QB away from a team that was beyond awful and underwent an entire schematic makeover and grabbing someone who has flashed a bit but is also bordering on a bust. 

Darnold has had 3 seasons to prove to be "the guy". He hasn't and if the Jets try to get out from under him, it's a murky situation as best. 

Besides, the Dolphins haven't been known to make particularly good trades. I would expect them to overpay. Going into 2021, the teams that would likely entertain a trade for Darnold aren't laughing stock organizations. The 49ers? Colts? The Patriots? The "bad" teams largely have their QB situation taken care of (Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins*, Giants?, Vikings, etc) or are going to be in position for Lawrence, Fields, or Lance and whoever inevitably rises at season's end. Point being, I don't see 2021 being a seller's market for offloading a former 1st rounder who flopped enough to move on from. The Jets will likely have limited suitors, and for once it won't be franchises that suck at trade value (unless Gruden loves the guy enough to throw a 1st, 2nd, Carr, Jacobs, and Waller at them...). 

Rosen had one of the worst rookie seasons for a 1st round QB in NFL history and it was evident that his lack of arm strength and mobility were an issue. He was bad the entire season and never really flashed high end ability. Darnold is leaps and bounds better than Rosen from a physical tools perspective and when he has played well has looked like a guy that can be one of the better starting QB's in the league. 

During the second half of last year when he was healthy the Jets were 6-2 and he threw for 1,950 yards, 14 TD, and only 4 INT. Despite the Jets having the 31st best run game in the NFL, arguably the worst OL in the league (allowed 52 sacks), and Jamison Crowder as his #1 WR. 

I also think it's unfair to say that he's bordering on being a bust. He had a decent rookie season and was excellent during the second half of last season when he was healthy.

He has had two years and some change to prove he's the guy playing with arguably the least talented offense in football and has still flashed some big time ability especially down the stretch last season. Joe Douglas (Jets new GM) didn't draft Darnold and if they finish with the 1st pick it'd be almost impossible to pass on him because he looks like a generational talent. With that being said though I don't think Lawrence would have much more success than Darnold unless the Jets really overhaul their OL and skill position groups. The Jets have given up the 3rd most sacks in the league, Frank Gore is their leading rusher averaging 40 yards per game, and their top 3 WR's are Jamison Crowder, Chris Hogan, and Braxton Berrios. 

I doubt they'll get a 1st round pick for him but I could easily see the Colts, 49ers, Patriots, Jaguars or Bears trading a 2nd for him. He still has 2 years left on his rookie deal and the QB class isn't very good or deep after the top 3 guys. And I wouldn't say he "flopped enough to move on from" as the only scenario I realistically see the Jets moving on is if they have a chance at Lawrence who looks elite with a GM that didn't draft Darnold in charge now. 

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59 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

still think you would pretty easily get a 2nd for Darnold. the colts, Football Team seem obvious. there are a bunch of potential landing spots. heck i could see the Bucs doing it.

Darnold to the Colts makes too much sense and he'd definitely be worth a 2nd round pick for them. 

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