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What is Sam Darnold's Trade Value?


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8 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The Cardinals still had a top 10 running game, Fitzgerald/Kirk at WR, spent a 2nd round pick on Isabella, and traded for Kenyan Drake. Then went and got Hopkins this offseason and have been very proactive in building a good offense around him. 

Specified last season. I don’t think mentioning Isabella really moves the needle at all - that’s like mentioning Adam Mims for the Jets. Also don’t believe Crowder/Anderson is a drop off from Fitz/Kirk...granted AZ ran better than I thought. 

8 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Luck's situation is the only one that I think is comparable but Wayne was still a 1,000+ yard WR his rookie season and then TY Hilton emerged as a top 10 WR in his second year. 

Again was looking at the rookie year there. Oldman Reggie was nice, but the team around Luck was pretty bad.

8 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

And that's the thing for me as well, do I think Lawrence will be better than Darnold? Definitely. But unless they really get better up front, add some legit weapons at WR, and improve their running game it's going to impossible for any QB to have success with them. 

Could probably say the same about all the QB busts. Get rid of Gase and bring someone competent in, it’d do wonders. 

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12 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Didn't Flacco just play a better game than Sam had all season? That's what I read heard offense had a ton of drops though if that's true idk how people see a first

Led the Jets to 250 yards and 10 points against the powerhouse Arizona Cardinals. I doubt they get a 1st but I could definitely see a 2nd. 

The Patriots got a 2nd for Jimmy G when he had like 2 career starts. 

The 49ers got 2 2nd round picks for Alex Smith. 

The Patriots got a 2nd for Matt Cassell after only 1 year as a starter. 

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16 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Specified last season. I don’t think mentioning Isabella really moves the needle at all - that’s like mentioning Adam Mims for the Jets. Also don’t believe Crowder/Anderson is a drop off from Fitz/Kirk...granted AZ ran better than I thought. 

Again was looking at the rookie year there. Oldman Reggie was nice, but the team around Luck was pretty bad.

Could probably say the same about all the QB busts. Get rid of Gase and bring someone competent in, it’d do wonders. 

But now we're also comparing Murray's rookie season to Darnold's 2nd year because in Darnold's rookie year his top 2 WR's were Anderson and Enunwa. When Darnold had Anderson/Crowder last season he had a decent year, especially in the 2nd half of the season.

The Jets didn't retain Anderson for whatever reason and replaced him with Perriman who has missed 3 games this season. I think that it's also worth mentioning that Denzel Mims hasn't played at all this season and Crowder has only played in 2/4 games with Darnold this year. So for 50% of this season so far Darnold's top 3 WR's have been Braxton Berrios, Lawrence Cager, and Chris Hogan. 

Wayne was their only proven talent but they spent a 2nd on Coby Fleener and a 3rd on TY Hilton and Dwayne Allen in that same draft so they were actively looking to put more talent around him. 

That's true but as I said earlier Darnold played really well down the stretch with just average weapons in the passing game, a horrible run game, and a terrible offensive line last season. And one of the reasons he has struggled so much this year is because they lost their best WR in Anderson while Mims hasn't played, Crowder has missed time, and Perriman has also missed time. 

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It's interesting that when I first read the thread title, my first thought was "nobody is doing to give up much for him."  After reading through this and thinking about it, I could actually see there being a fairly good number of teams who would be willing to take a chance on him.  You never know, it might not be too late for him to get his career on track with a decent organization.

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12 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

It's interesting that when I first read the thread title, my first thought was "nobody is doing to give up much for him."  After reading through this and thinking about it, I could actually see there being a fairly good number of teams who would be willing to take a chance on him.  You never know, it might not be too late for him to get his career on track with a decent organization.

It's not easy to find a good starting quarterback unless you have a high draft pick or are willing to give up the capital to go up and get one. It's even harder to find a good starting QB on a team friendly deal. When you look at good starting QB's around the league that have been drafted in the last 10 years only almost all of them were 1st round picks with the only 5 exceptions being Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy G. 

Good quarterbacks almost never hit the open market in free agency unless they're nearing the end of their career like we've seen with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The only starting QB's in their prime that we've seen leave in free agency in recent years are Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, Brock Osweiler, and Teddy Bridgewater. They all got huge contracts and I wouldn't consider any of them elite players. 

I also think that people are being too harsh on their evaluations of Darnold based on his poor play this season. He had an okay 2nd year and as I've said before was excellent during the final 8 games of the year. He has struggled this year but they're the worst running team in the league, have given up the third most sacks, and he has been without his top 3 WR for most of the time he has been on the field. 

This years class is pretty weak at QB after the top 2 or 3 guys and it doesn't look like there will be any starting caliber QB's available in free agency either, both of which improve his trade value. For a team like the Colts giving up a 2nd round pick for Darnold who has two years left on his rookie deal is a low risk/high reward situation. Because at best they get a good starting QB for $9M over the next two seasons when they're paying Rivers $25M and Brissett $15M this year. And at worst they can move on relatively quickly without any major financial concerns from the move. 

People also really tend to overvalue draft picks as well. Jalen Hurts, Drew Lock, DeShone Kizer, and Christian Hackenberg are the 4 QB's that have been drafted in the second round over the past few drafts. Would you take any of those guys over Darnold? 

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2 hours ago, drew39k said:

Trading away number one overall for the right to select a "generational" for 2 1s 2 2s and 2 3s is conservative. 

The first 1 rounder is just a swap so its costing you 1 first, 2 2nds and 2 3rds. That's pretty on par with some of the other major qb move up trades and none of them were for a supposed generational talent.

I was being conservative by not looking at prior deals and going over their trade values to compensate for the alleged talent gap being offered up here.

That haul is the Goff trade. And that was unprecedented. No guarantees that someone trading up for Lawrence won't have a worse record than the Rams did--thus, shrinking the return. 

Also, no guarantee the Jets end up with the worst record. 

And no, you weren't being "conservative", you were being hopeful. There's a big difference. 

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1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Led the Jets to 250 yards and 10 points against the powerhouse Arizona Cardinals. I doubt they get a 1st but I could definitely see a 2nd. 

The Patriots got a 2nd for Jimmy G when he had like 2 career starts. 

The 49ers got 2 2nd round picks for Alex Smith. 

The Patriots got a 2nd for Matt Cassell after only 1 year as a starter. 

If your point is that there is no exact science to it all...you're right. 

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Just now, Heinz D. said:

If your point is that there is no exact science to it all...you're right. 

We've seen 3 guys with minimal starting experience traded for 2nd round picks and an average starter traded for 2 2nd round picks recently so I think it's safe to assume the Jets will get at least a 2nd for Darnold. 

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

We've seen 3 guys with minimal starting experience traded for 2nd round picks and an average starter traded for 2 2nd round picks recently so I think it's safe to assume the Jets will get at least a 2nd for Darnold. 

Maybe. There could be another four first round quarterbacks taken next draft. Or, there could be two. It's a mess. 

I'm not even sure the Jets will look to trade Darnold. 

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1 minute ago, Heinz D. said:

Maybe. There could be another four first round quarterbacks taken next draft. Or, there could be two. It's a mess. 

I'm not even sure the Jets will look to trade Darnold. 

I think Lawrence, Fields, and Lance are all locks to go in the 1st. Trask could move into that range but I think he's a 2nd round prospect. 

Me either, I think the only way they trade him is if they end up with the 1st pick and want to take Lawrence. But I could also see a scenario where they trade the pick for a king's ransom so they can build around Darnold. 

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On 10/12/2020 at 11:39 AM, drew39k said:

I'm a jets fan and 100% against picking Lawrence and trading Darnold. Though that's mostly independent of my belief in Darnold as the guy. Honestly I'm fairly certain the Jets ruined him. Probably gonna need to sit for a year somewhere and get plugged into an offense that has an identity.

The Jets cannot continue to think the answer to building a competitive team is a savior QB. They need to build a team. Get a head coach in there and establish an offense. Build up the offense while Darnold or a veteran take snaps. Once the team has a solid foundation, if Darnold has failed, sign a vet and draft someone to sit and learn for a year. 

To just keep throwing talent young qbs into a dumpster fire of an offense is idiotic.

All that said, I do think the Jets are dumb, so I do think they take Lawrence. I'd hope they could get a 2nd for Darnold but, I'm guessing it would be a third(maybe conditionally rising to a second or even first)

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Jesus, I really hope the organization you follow feels the same way.

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On 10/12/2020 at 12:31 PM, Tk3 said:

Here's the way I look at it.. There are a couple reasons why you would trade for a QB like this..

1. You are a team without a QB who is looking for a potential franchise guy

This is tricky.. This is where the Dolphins fell when they acquired Rosen. They looked at him and must have thought Rosen still had more upside potential than any rookie they could acquire in the 2nd round. I don't know if that team actually exists. Team like the Jags or Football Team or Broncos probably don't see him as an upside over their current youth prospects and would probably just draft a guy if they were willing to move on. I think Darnold actually has LESS value than Rosen did, because Rosen was still earlier in his career at the time, which left a team like the Dolphins thinking maybe he had more upside than he actually had.

2. You are a team with a veteran QB who is looking for a backup - with the potential for him to take over down the line (think Bucs, Saints, Steelers types)

This is probably the best shot at receiving some actual value. Maybe a late 2nd or 3rd as a draft pick in that range will likely not yield a player with higher upside OR more readiness to fill in now, and they won't have the draft capital to draft a guy in the 1-12 overall range.

I don't mind the concept of going the Cards route and drafting Lawrence and moving Darnold for a day 2 pick - but I think the options are going to be limited which might result in a not so great return. And like someone else said, if you do that, you HAVE to make more of an effort to give Lawrence the tools he needs

It's dumb. The Dolphins traded for Rosen despite that we were already all-in on Tua because of the preceived value when Rosen was in actuality damaged goods. Darnold is probably moreso than Rosen. And now Rosen is a PS player.

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

I think Lawrence, Fields, and Lance are all locks to go in the 1st. Trask could move into that range but I think he's a 2nd round prospect. 

Me either, I think the only way they trade him is if they end up with the 1st pick and want to take Lawrence. But I could also see a scenario where they trade the pick for a king's ransom so they can build around Darnold. 

They can even trade the pick and hedge their bet with a lower tier guy (who could produce)--like Ehlinger. 

That's what I'd do. Darnold hasn't done enough to prove to me he's a bust. And he does (inarguably, in my opinion) still have enough physical intangibles to suggest that he could still yet succeed. I think a lot of us here, consciously or not, agree with that, and that's why this thread is even a thing. 

If I'm the Jets, I keep Darnold and trade the pick. They already have a great draft bonanza ahead of them--add to it. 

Just now, TheKillerNacho said:

giphy.gif

Jesus, I really hope the organization you follow feels the same way.

Why? It's not like the Jets have a perfect situation for Lawrence to step into. Jeezus, the Jets could trade the first pick, add to their prodigious bounty of picks, and still end up with Fields or Lance--if they decided to even go that route. 

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1 minute ago, Heinz D. said:

They can even trade the pick and hedge their bet with a lower tier guy (who could produce)--like Ehlinger. 

That's what I'd do. Darnold hasn't done enough to prove to me he's a bust. And he does (inarguably, in my opinion) still have enough physical intangibles to suggest that he could still yet succeed. I think a lot of us here, consciously or not, agree with that, and that's why this thread is even a thing. 

If I'm the Jets, I keep Darnold and trade the pick. They already have a great draft bonanza ahead of them--add to it. 

Why? It's not like the Jets have a perfect situation for Lawrence to step into. Jeezus, the Jets could trade the first pick, add to their prodigious bounty of picks, and still end up with Fields or Lance--if they decided to even go that route. 

He's a bust.

Trading back for Fields or even Lance wouldn't be a horrible move. But keeping Darnold? LOLLLLLL

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