NYRaider Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said: Most of those guys were top picks if they came out of HS. It saved most from drafting Nico Mannion in the 1st round. Or taking RJ barret or Cam Reddish or Bol Bol over Zion because in HS people didnt think his game would translate. It helped people realize Trae Young and SGA were better than Trevon Duvall. It helped people know Harry Giles and Josh Jackson weren't better than Tatum. I could keep going but yes some guys are still drafted on potential if they have tools and don't screw up too bad. That really couldn't be further from the truth though. You think Nico Mannion, a 6'2" 190 pound guard with a 6'2" wingspan and average athleticism would've been selected in the 1st round if he declared for the draft? Again, history tells us this isn't the case, even when guys could make the jump directly from HS to the NBA not very many did. And the very few that did and were selected in the lottery were very highly touted recruits with NBA bodies. 1995: Kevin Garnett (#5 pick) - No recruiting rankings then but he was the NPOY in HS. 1996: Kobe Bryant (#13 pick) - No recruiting rankings then but he was the NPOY in HS. 1997: Tracy McGrady (#9 pick) - No recruiting rankings then but he was the NPOY in HS. 1999: Jonathan Bender (#5 pick) - #8 overall recruit in his class, was viewed as a Kevin Durant type prospect at 6'11" with guard skills. 2000: Darius Miles (#3 pick) - #3 overall recruit, was compared to Tracy McGrady as a 6'9" athlete with guard skills 2001: • Kwame Brown (#1 pick) - #6 overall recruit, was 6'11" 240 with freakish athleticism, compared to KG. • Tyson Chandler (#2 pick) - #4 overall recruit, was 7'1" 220 with freakish athleticism back when that was what the league coveted. • Eddy Curry (#4 pick) - #1 overall recruit, was 7'0" 280 and compared to Shaq coming into the league, had some good years before he got hurt. • DeSagana Diop (#8 pick) - #8 overall recruit, was a 7 footer with high level athleticism when the league was built around bigs. 2002: Amar'e Stoudemire (#9 pick) - #1 overall recruit, was a 6'10" forward with an NBA body and freak athleticism. 2003: LeBron James (#1 pick) - #1 overall recruit, not much to say here, lol. 2004: • Dwight Howard (#1 pick) - #1 overall recruit, not much to say here. • Shaun Livingston (#4 pick) - #2 overall recruit, a 6'7" point guard with elite athleticism that was trending upwards until he had one of the worst knee injuries in NBA History. • Robert Swift (#12 pick) - #8 overall recruit, a 7'1" center with good athleticism and a high skill level, injuries and drug abuse ruined his career. • Sebastian Telfair (#13 pick) - #6 overall recruit, he's the one outlier as a smaller PG that made the leap but also had a tremendous amount of hype around him coming out of NYC with the documentary. 2005: Martell Webster (#6 pick) - #3 overall recruit, 6'7" 220 wing with elite athleticism compared to great NBA wings. Career was derailed by injuries. Andrew Bynum (#10 pick) - #10 overall recruit, 7 foot big man that went onto become an All-Star caliber player and then have his career derailed by injuries. Edited August 5, 2021 by NYRaider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 So as you can see @Sllim Pickens even when there wasn't a one-n-done rule there were only 3 drafts where multiple HS kids were selected in the lottery in the same class. You can also see that of all the HS players to make the leap and be selected in the lottery, the only 6 that were multi-time All-Stars were also the #1 recruit in their class and/or the NPOY in Garnett, Kobe, McGrady, Amar'e, LeBron, and Dwight. It's not like NBA teams need to see Nico Mannion and Vernon Carey Jr play a year of college basketball to realize that they're not great NBA prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said: And yes, someone would have drafted Boston in the lotto had he gone right from high school. Refer to my posts above to see why this is false. Even the year Kobe declared after being the NPOY the first 12 picks were all guys that went to college. When McGrady declared after being the NPOY the first 8 picks ahead of him were all guys that went to college. Of the 17 HS players that declared and went in the lottery 6 of them are future HOF (KG, Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, Amar'e, McGrady), 2 of them were very good NBA players (Bynum, Chandler), 4 of them carved out decent careers as role players but were injury prone (Livingston, Curry, Webster, Miles), and the other 5 were busts for various reasons (Swift, Telfair, Brown, Bender, Diop). 6/17 that were deemed good enough to be lottery picks is a 35% hit rate. So you had a 1/3 chance to potentially get one of the greatest players to ever play the game, lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 5 hours ago, NYRaider said: Refer to my posts above to see why this is false. Even the year Kobe declared after being the NPOY the first 12 picks were all guys that went to college. When McGrady declared after being the NPOY the first 8 picks ahead of him were all guys that went to college. Of the 17 HS players that declared and went in the lottery 6 of them are future HOF (KG, Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, Amar'e, McGrady), 2 of them were very good NBA players (Bynum, Chandler), 4 of them carved out decent careers as role players but were injury prone (Livingston, Curry, Webster, Miles), and the other 5 were busts for various reasons (Swift, Telfair, Brown, Bender, Diop). 6/17 that were deemed good enough to be lottery picks is a 35% hit rate. So you had a 1/3 chance to potentially get one of the greatest players to ever play the game, lol. Cool story, but the guys who scout prospects had Boston as a top 3 pick this year based on his HS abilities when they projected this draft last year. When Kobe was drafted, high school players didn’t go pro. He is the equivalent today of a Cade Cunningham for this class. Pretending like Cade wouldn’t have gone first last year if he was a HS, is crazy. Kwame Brown was the #1 pick once they started drafting more HS kids and then Kwame caused them to change it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 6, 2021 Author Share Posted August 6, 2021 2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said: Cool story, but the guys who scout prospects had Boston as a top 3 pick this year based on his HS abilities when they projected this draft last year. When Kobe was drafted, high school players didn’t go pro. He is the equivalent today of a Cade Cunningham for this class. Pretending like Cade wouldn’t have gone first last year if he was a HS, is crazy. Kwame Brown was the #1 pick once they started drafting more HS kids and then Kwame caused them to change it. Cool stories but the reality is HS kids that made the leap were very rarely drafted highly by NBA teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OkeyDoke21 Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 (edited) The value of the one-and-done to the NBA has more to do with marketing than it does protecting GMs from busts. They get a kid that can sell tickets, and draw advertisers vs someone who is unknown to the casual fan. They don't come out of high school with that kind of drawing power. LeBron was really the only high school kid that could do that, and that's because the major media outlets covered him like they do a college star, on the National stage. Zion was worth exponentially more to the NBA, after his one year at Duke, than he was coming straight out of high school. It was never about improved scouting. It was about getting an established brand into their markets, at no cost. Edited August 6, 2021 by OkeyDoke21 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 14 hours ago, NYRaider said: Cool stories but the reality is HS kids that made the leap were very rarely drafted highly by NBA teams. They werent in 1996, they were by the early 2000s when it was becoming the trend. 2001 3 of the top 4 were highschool kids. In 2003 Lebron went 1. In 2004 Dwight Howard, went 1, Livingston went 4 and Swift 12. The next year Bynum was 10 Martell Webster was 6. Martell Webster was the 4th ranked recruit in the class, Bynum was 7th. They were picked high, especially the elites with top end athleticism and production. Cade, Green, and Mobely all likely would have went 1-3 last year. Even Kuminga might have gone 4 last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 8, 2021 Author Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 8/6/2021 at 1:31 PM, Sllim Pickens said: Cade, Green, and Mobely all likely would have went 1-3 last year. Even Kuminga might have gone 4 last year. So nothing would've changed then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oregon Ducks Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 hours ago, Oregon Ducks said: Paolo is going to feast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 12 hours ago, NYRaider said: Paolo is going to feast. He won't be there n 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: He won't be there n 2022 Dariq Whitehead gonna feast! lol Paolo to Detroit would be so beautiful, Chris Webber Jr on the Pistons, oooof. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Updated early top 25 projection via ESPN: 1. Gonzaga 2. Kansas 3. UCLA 4. Villanova 5. Texas 6. Purdue 7. Michigan 8. Kentucky 9. Baylor 10. Duke 11. Oregon 12. Illinois 13. Arkansas 14. Houston 15. Alabama 16. North Carolina 17. Tennessee 18. Ohio State 19. Maryland 20. Florida State 21. Auburn 22. Oklahoma State 23. Virginia Tech 24. Texas Tech 25. Virginia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Think people are sleeping on Duke this year, a starting 5 of: G: Jeremy Roach G: Wendell Moore F: AJ Griffin Jr F: Paolo Banchero F: Mark Williams Is going to be absolutely filthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texansfan713 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 1:22 PM, NYRaider said: Updated early top 25 projection via ESPN: 1. Gonzaga 2. Kansas 3. UCLA 4. Villanova 5. Texas 6. Purdue 7. Michigan 8. Kentucky 9. Baylor 10. Duke 11. Oregon 12. Illinois 13. Arkansas 14. Houston 15. Alabama 16. North Carolina 17. Tennessee 18. Ohio State 19. Maryland 20. Florida State 21. Auburn 22. Oklahoma State 23. Virginia Tech 24. Texas Tech 25. Virginia where memphis at? 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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