Let's Talk About.. Derek Carr

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Don't be scared Raiders fans, I am not here to pimp Carr and make any claims about him, thereby jinxing him and your season. I am just here to bring his season to FF's attention and see what people think about Carr. 

 

So I have hardly heard a thing about Carr, not here, not twitter, certainly not on TV, but he is having a pretty ridiculous start to the year. Here are the numbers:

1,442 yards, 11 TDs, 1 INT, 115.9 passer rating, 8.56 ANY/A, 80.8 QBR, 72.9 PFF grade, 2 GW drives

The only knock on him through 5 games is his 4 lost fumbles.

The Raiders are sitting at 3-2 w/ wins over the Saints and Chiefs, and while the jury may still be out on the Saints, beating the Chiefs in Kansas is certainly an impressive feat. Both of their losses look to be to playoff teams as well.

 

Two things stick out to me though.

1. The consistency. Look at his game log, you'll see 5 good games (at least going off numbers). 

• Just the 4th player in NFL history to have 5 consecutive games w/ a 70% completion rate while throwing 30 or more passes (1st to do it in 1st 5 games, regardless of pass attempts)
• Just the 3rd player to open the season w/ 5 consecutive games w/ a passer rating of 107 or more (2020 Rodgers could be 4th)
• ^Both obviously very specific parameters (68% no good, but 70% is?), but just serves to paint a picture that there has been some amazing consistency on paper to open the season.

 

2. Who he is throwing to.

• Darren Waller (47 targets)
• Hunter Renfrow (23 targets)
• Henry Ruggs (11 targets)
• Nelson Agholor (11 targets)
• Zay Jones (11 targets)
• Jason Witten (6 targets)
• Bryan Edwards (6 targets)

Fairly unremarkable group. Waller is certainly a nice go to and top 3ish TE, but Ruggs has only played 3 games, and even with him this isn't a particularly stellar group of WRs. 

 

Carr had a very good 2016, but has kind of been written off since then as far as I'm concerned. From 2017-2019 I've seen opinion of Carr range from franchise QB but nothing special, to should be replaced. Certainly no talk of top 10, which is a trajectory he was surely on after a 28 TD-6 INT season at 25. I remember a lot was said of Carr's passing under pressure, and his worse numbers post 2016 were a result of the pass pro not being elite like it was, but the Raiders pass block win rate per ESPN only ranks 20th this season and I have seen for myself some great throws under pressure. Now to counter, Carr has always put up efficient numbers. Even when the Raiders were 4-12 in 2018, Carr was nearly throwing at a 70% completion rate, so this might be a QB whose style and offense will always lead to pretty numbers.

Was it a matter of the pieces not being there, and Carr is, or has become, a Matt Ryan caliber QB? Or is it too early to make any such statements after only 5 games, as his critiques and concerns pre-2020 were warranted? 

 

 

[Xmad]

I've said it for years the man has the talent to be a top tier QB the problem is he inconsistent as ****.

The Matt Ryan comparison makes sense tbh given I think they're a very similair caliber of player (granted ryan has the higher highs but he had Julio for most of his career sooo)

[hoekd0250]

Derek carr is sam bradford before the injuries

Sam darnold is mathew stafford

 

[sryan66611]

Man...   He is so tough to really judge IMO.    I'm not a fan but I live in Vegas so I watch a decent amount of his games.   Some of the things that bother me is a lot of times he seems very timid or afraid to make a mistake/ throw a bad ball and it causes him to either eat a sack or check down (like the opposite of a gunslinger).  He has great arm talent though and throws a pretty ball.  I think the best game I have seen so far was this last KC game.  The next couple games or even this season will prove a lot more.  Although he doesn't have a great WR supporting cast I feel he has a really solid line and good running game that help him out a lot.

 

Also he needs structure and if anything goes wrong or out of the ordinary he won't be the one to make a play.   Hes not the guy to do amazing things off script ala Mahomes.

Edited October 14, 2020 by sryan66611

[SilverNBlackFan]

Us Raider fans come to NFL General to get away from the constant Derek Carr debate that occurs in the Raider section, and here you go with this thread, lol.

[SilverNBlackFan]

My take is Carr is and has been an above average QB. He was never bad but he's not as great as his 2016 season suggested he might become. He is not a guy who is a franchise changer that can consistently elevate those around him. He is having a very good start to the season, and he looks very comfortable in Grudens system with this being his 3rd year in it. Raiders have also done a good job of surrounding him with talent. We have a top oline (which you kind of have to have with Carr as your QB), a top 5ish RB in Jacobs, a top 3 TE in Waller and we drafted the most dynamic WR in the draft in Ruggs. Renfrow and Bryan Edwards are solid WRs we recently drafted as well, so Carr has the talent and coaching around him and he is taking advantage of it so far.

The knocks against Carr is he plays too conservative. Doesn't take risks downfield, quick to checkdown. Loses his $#$t when operating in a muddied pocket or pressured. Doesn't use his athleticism to extend plays. Cant play in cold weather games. Only beat 4 playoff teams in 7 year career, with two of those wins coming against Brock Osweiler led teams (although this year that # should change with us beating NO and KC).

Has his play so far this year alleviated any of those concerns? For me no although he did play more aggressively last week with Ruggs back. I think hes a good vet QB who can have a good to great season every now and then but has his limitations. He's in the Stafford, Tannehill, Kirk Cousins tier for me. The Alex Smith KC tier.

[Hunter2_1]

@RandyMossIsBoss have you gone back and tracked his games like you did with the CBs?

 

The reason I ask is because I've only seen him twice, one was his awesome game vs KC, but the other was vs NE and aside from one or two throws, he looked pretty poor again. Judging by his stats I'm assuming the game against us was just an out-lier. It was interesting to note that a) he was without Ruggs, and b) we completely shut Waller down. 2 targets all day, both in garbage time.

It's interesting watching how. NE used 9(!) different players in coverage of him over the course of the game, and it often included a chip at the line, and passing him off to others or re-routing etc. This clip is pretty typical;

 

Williams squares him up 3 yards in, then stuck to him, then McCourty picks him up and he's covered 100% the way through.

Notice Carr wants to go there but has to hold on, gets flushed and it's incomplete. This was frequently occuring.

 

So I guess what I'm saying is Carr certainly has seemed to have turned a corner, is CLEARLY more confident throwing the ball downfield now, but you can make him one dimensional.

 

[BayRaider]

Carr is definitely having a great season so far during what was a Make or Break year for him. He was coming off two terrible years in 2017 and 2018, and a pretty average year last year. Seems a long time since his 2016 MVP level year.

However, it's way too early to judge. Carr actually started off really, really well the first 7 games or so last year and looked like a Top 10 QB. Then the final 9 games or so he just kind of fell apart and ended up with a pretty average year. I said I would reserve all judgment about Carr this year until all 16 games are played, whether good or bad.

Obviously, I'm impressed with what I see so far, very much so. Especially with the monster 5 games we have had to go through.

Our first seven games is the fourth toughest seven game stretch in NFL History I saw on Twitter earlier. At least before Buffalo lost their game against the Titans.
 

@Carolina 3-2

vs New Orleans 3-2

@New England 2-2

vs Buffalo 4-1

at Kansas City 4-1

vs Tampa Bay 3-2

at Cleveland 4-1

Basically murderers row, and then the schedule eases up.

With that said, many of us Raider Fans are pessimistic because we've seen this story before where Carr goes on a crazy streak and then makes a 360 after the streak, and a streak of horror ensues. However, he is playing VERY VERY good football right now and I'm happy as can be. Haven't had this much fun as a fan since 2016. And the win against Kansas City was easily our most important win since the 2002 AFC Championship against the Titans. That big. I hope Carr keeps it up all 16 games and shows he has really turned a corner. I would love, love to not have to use a draft pick on a QB.

 

I will disagree with you that we have an average receiving core. Ruggs may have only had three games but he completely changes how defenses play us. I remember seeing a stat where Texans last year had the 4th Ranked Offense with Fuller and 23rd without him. Something like that. When we have Ruggs, teams have to respect the deep game at all times. So Carr can carve up the short/medium game, and take deep shots also to throw them off. You know... how an offense is suppose to operate. Ruggs also looks pretty damn good and solid starting WR. Also Nelson Agholor has been splendid for us. Silky smooth route running, always open, never drops the ball, very very aggressive as well. Agholor looks like he has turned a corner from Philly and looks like a true WR2. Also Renfrow looks like a solid Slot WR. And I would also say we have one of the best TE Trios in football in Waller, Monreau, and Witten. Also a Top 3 Pass Protection. Overall Line? Edge of the Top 10 probably, our Run Blocking has been suspect. But definitely a Top 3 Pass Protection when Trent Brown and everyone plays. So I will disagree about Carrs weapons being average, one of the better weapon cores in the league right now.

Overall, pretty dang satisfied with Carrs start to the season. However, like I said, we've all seen this type of start from Carr before and what matters is if he can keep it up all 16 games. It means nothing if he can't, and we'd possibly still be in QB Limbo come the off-season.

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by BayRaider

[ronjon1990]

For me, a lot of the Carr criticism was blown way out of proportion and made worse by the emergence of superstars like Mahomes. Some people think HOF caliber QBs are a dime a dozen.

He never had weapons outside of Crabtree and Cooper, and Cooper was dropping balls left and right and didn't want to be in Oakland. 

He actually had a solid enough rookie season under Greg Olson's O in 2014, then changed offenses in 2015 (Musgrave), again in 2017 (Downing), and then again in 2018 (Gruden-Olson braintrust). 2020 coincides with that magical "3rd year in an offense" mark for the first time in his career. In 18 and 19, we lacked weapons. Folks would scream "He doesn't throw down field!!!" and my question was always "LOL...to who?". 

As for the "he plays too conservative" bit... Our D sucks and can't make stops. He tries to limit turnovers because, well, he pretty much has to. Reference the opener against the Rams in 2018. Going into the 4th, it was a 7 point game. He started pressing and it snowballed out of control. The Rams took advantage of those mistakes and chewed off a total of 9 minutes  to kick 2 FGs on 11 and 12 play 51 and 69 yard drives because our D couldn't get off the field. 

With a D as bad as the Raiders' over the last few years, a miscue or two turns a 1 score game into a 3-score deficit that we're being overly aggressive to try and dig out of. The cumulative effect is ugly football and more turnovers and bigger blowouts. 

In 2016, we saw him play better and our D played well. Against Denver in week 1 last year, same thing. Against KC this week, the D actually stepped up and Carr had one of the best games in his career. Weapons and trusting the D to do their part allows him to take more risks because in the event that an errant pass gets picked off, it's not a death dagger. 

IMO, many fans have a weird memory and forgot that we were trotting out Jawalrus, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Aaron Brooks, Bruce Gradkowski, Andrew Walter, Matt Schaub, and the OG Ginger before Carr came along. You'd think we were Green Bay going from a HOF QB to another HOF QB prior to Carr. 

I'm not surprised that better weapons and schematic consistency has led to good numbers this year. So many people expect Madden stats and highlight reel plays but ignore the reality that O's and D's have to hold up their end of the bargain and that who you're tossing passes to matter (as an aside- Ronald Johnson was unstoppable in Madden 2012 on the 49ers if you just used him on deep slants, btw). When your D can make stops, you can try and make plays. When they can't, you have to be careful to not press too much, lest trying to play catch-up down 7 with a quarter left becomes down 14 with 3 minutes left. That's the reality of Raider football much of the time. 

 

Edited October 14, 2020 by ronjon1990

[raidersedge]

He's at least a top 7 qb at this moment and the team is getting healthy. Raiders drafted Ruggs a 12 for a reason, he opens everything open. They are 3-0 when Ruggs plays and they have scored 108 points in those 3 games. That's impressive.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

2 hours ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

My take is Carr is and has been an above average QB. He was never bad but he's not as great as his 2016 season suggested he might become. He is not a guy who is a franchise changer that can consistently elevate those around him. He is having a very good start to the season, and he looks very comfortable in Grudens system with this being his 3rd year in it. Raiders have also done a good job of surrounding him with talent. We have a top oline (which you kind of have to have with Carr as your QB), a top 5ish RB in Jacobs, a top 3 TE in Waller and we drafted the most dynamic WR in the draft in Ruggs. Renfrow and Bryan Edwards are solid WRs we recently drafted as well, so Carr has the talent and coaching around him and he is taking advantage of it so far.

The knocks against Carr is he plays too conservative. Doesn't take risks downfield, quick to checkdown. Loses his $#$t when operating in a muddied pocket or pressured. Doesn't use his athleticism to extend plays. Cant play in cold weather games. Only beat 4 playoff teams in 7 year career, with two of those wins coming against Brock Osweiler led teams (although this year that # should change with us beating NO and KC).

Has his play so far this year alleviated any of those concerns? For me no although he did play more aggressively last week with Ruggs back. I think hes a good vet QB who can have a good to great season every now and then but has his limitations. He's in the Stafford, Tannehill, Kirk Cousins tier for me. The Alex Smith KC tier.

Sounds like someone I've heard of. 

Edited October 14, 2020 by TecmoSuperJoe

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

So I guess what I'm saying is Carr certainly has seemed to have turned a corner, is CLEARLY more confident throwing the ball downfield now, but you can make him one dimensional.

We were also without Ruggs and lost Bryan Edwards early in that game as well. 

[Hunter2_1]

19 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

We were also without Ruggs and lost Bryan Edwards early in that game as well. 

I did mention without Ruggs

[Ryan_W]

I don't know if that's a historically strong test for the Raiders in 7 games; a strong test for sure.

at week 5; so far 12 teams have 1 win or less, so playing a 4-1 team that got all it's wins from 1> win teams; how strong are they?

week 7 (or 8 when Bucs plays NO) will be a good time to revisit. The Bucs have a similarly tough early schedule like the Raiders.

lets see who's on top from the current 3-2 leaders - Raiders, Bucs or Saints in 2-3 weeks.

[Darbsk]

3 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

For me, a lot of the Carr criticism was blown way out of proportion and made worse by the emergence of superstars like Mahomes. Some people think HOF caliber QBs are a dime a dozen.

He never had weapons outside of Crabtree and Cooper, and Cooper was dropping balls left and right and didn't want to be in Oakland. 

He actually had a solid enough rookie season under Greg Olson's O in 2014, then changed offenses in 2015 (Musgrave), again in 2017 (Downing), and then again in 2018 (Gruden-Olson braintrust). 2020 coincides with that magical "3rd year in an offense" mark for the first time in his career. In 18 and 19, we lacked weapons. Folks would scream "He doesn't throw down field!!!" and my question was always "LOL...to who?". 

As for the "he plays too conservative" bit... Our D sucks and can't make stops. He tries to limit turnovers because, well, he pretty much has to. Reference the opener against the Rams in 2018. Going into the 4th, it was a 7 point game. He started pressing and it snowballed out of control. The Rams took advantage of those mistakes and chewed off a total of 9 minutes  to kick 2 FGs on 11 and 12 play 51 and 69 yard drives because our D couldn't get off the field. 

With a D as bad as the Raiders' over the last few years, a miscue or two turns a 1 score game into a 3-score deficit that we're being overly aggressive to try and dig out of. The cumulative effect is ugly football and more turnovers and bigger blowouts. 

In 2016, we saw him play better and our D played well. Against Denver in week 1 last year, same thing. Against KC this week, the D actually stepped up and Carr had one of the best games in his career. Weapons and trusting the D to do their part allows him to take more risks because in the event that an errant pass gets picked off, it's not a death dagger. 

IMO, many fans have a weird memory and forgot that we were trotting out Jawalrus, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Aaron Brooks, Bruce Gradkowski, Andrew Walter, Matt Schaub, and the OG Ginger before Carr came along. You'd think we were Green Bay going from a HOF QB to another HOF QB prior to Carr. 

I'm not surprised that better weapons and schematic consistency has led to good numbers this year. So many people expect Madden stats and highlight reel plays but ignore the reality that O's and D's have to hold up their end of the bargain and that who you're tossing passes to matter (as an aside- Ronald Johnson was unstoppable in Madden 2012 on the 49ers if you just used him on deep slants, btw). When your D can make stops, you can try and make plays. When they can't, you have to be careful to not press too much, lest trying to play catch-up down 7 with a quarter left becomes down 14 with 3 minutes left. That's the reality of Raider football much of the time. 

 

This sums it up succinctly. Great post.

It's no coincidences his worst two years were 2017 and 2018. He had a broken bone in his back in 2017 and okayed with the lingering injury through half the seadon and of course we had Todd Downing as an OC in over his head. Combine that with the whole team taking a step back and he struggled.

In 2018 we dismantled the team around him, traded Cooper and his starting weapons were Doug Martin, Jordy Nelsons cadaver, Seth '3rd down drops' Roberts, Marcell Ateman, Ryan Grant until he was cut and Jared Cook. Couple that with 2 rookie tackles who were in way over their heads and the results were predictable. When the team around them are failing QBs usually either try and play hero ball like Wentz has done with predictable results or go into their shell and be over conservative as Carr has done.

We've now added some weapons, improved his protection and kept him in the same scheme and he's back playing at a Pro Bowl level. He'll always be a bit conservative, never be a great scrambler but he's a good to very good QB when given adequate supporting cast.