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VonKarman

2021 Salary Cap Thread

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GBP 2021 Salary Cap Thread

In light of the amount of posts talking about whom we can re-sign and how much cap we are going to have next year I’d thought it’d be interesting to have a thread to talk about it. That way we can see if it is possible to re-sign Bakh, Jones and King (and maybe others)

 

Current 2020 cap situation:

7.66M according to Overthecap.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

7.89M according to Ken Ingalls (5.38M effective cap space)

https://twitter.com/KenIngalls/status/1316115311834411009

 

We will probably spend some more in the following 12 weeks (waiver wire+PS promotions), so I would estimate us having around 4M to roll over for next year.

 

2021 cap situation

It gets a bit tricky to estimate what’s gonna happen with all the COVID-reduced cap situation. The NFL and the NFLPA association agreed to have the cap at a minimum of 175M (the league tried to push for 165M, that should tell you a bit about what the situation is). Cap is almost 100% going to go down, and the most probable scenario is for it to go down to 175M. Overthecap has his estimate at 176M (made after asking people inside the NFL what they thought it was gonna happen).

I’ll present 2 different scenarios, 1 assuming the 2021 cap is 176M, and another being a bit more optimistic and assuming it only goes down to 190M. I will also assume in all scenarios that we need to have 6M of cap space for draft picks and PS members.

Also, before heading into the different scenarios, I’ll estimate how much resigning our guys would cost. I’ll estimate the cap hit in the first year around 40-50% of the yearly average as that is what happened with the Smith, Turner and Amos contracts. Heck, I’ll even backload it more at leave it at 40% in 4-year contracts since 2021 will be a weird year. I’ll also assume that we let Corey Linsley go.

David Bakhtiari 4Y/80M, 2021 8M cap hit

Kevin King 3Y/42M, 2021 6M cap hit

Aaron Jones, 3Y/36M, 2021 5M cap hit

Jamaal Williams 3Y/10M, 2021 1.5M cap hit

To keep all 4 would mean to clear 20.5M in cap space.

 

How to make cap space:

 

Possible cuts/trades

Preston Smith (8M+ in cap space). For me this is an obvious one. One of the Smiths need to get cut or traded, a Preston is the correct answer.

Billy Turner (3.55M+ in cap space). We invested quite a bit in the draft this past year to strengthen the IOL.

Christian Kirksey (6M+ in cap space). He’s always injured, just cut him.

Dean Lowry (3.3M+ in cap space). We could replace him with a bag of potatos and our defense would look better.

Rick Wagner (4.25M+ in cap space). Another possible cut, though it’d be hard for our OL to get both Turner and Wagner cut. Might be possible if we move Jenkins to RT and have Hanson/Patrick/Runyan as our IOL. A bit risky for my taste.

Devin Funchess (1.27M+ in cap space). Another obvious cut for me. One year without playing is going to be hard for him.

Josh Jackson (1.33M+ in cap space). He sucks.

These are the players who would give as more than 1M by cutting/trading them. However, we need to take into account that they free up a spot, and for each of these guys we cut/trade we need to account for the minimum 0.61M a guy who makes the 53 is going to make. Cutting all of them would give us around 27-28M in cap space.

 

Restructures

Aaron Rodgers. We can get a maximum of +13.95M in cap space.

Za’darius Smith. We can get a maximum of +7.13M in cap space.

Adrian Amos. We can get a maximum of +2.95M in cap space.

 

No other restructures would give us more than a million in cap space.

 

Extensions

The only guy I see us doing it would be Davante Adams. We could probably free up to 6M.

 

 

Scenario no. 1

Salary Cap 176M, Packers keep their conservative strategy when facing new contracts

Current estimated effective cap space by Overthecap -4.77M

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

We only have 39 people signed for 2021, which makes our ECS go down quite a bit. Besides, if we take into account Ingalls’ estimation of 2020 cap space and other future signings, our ECS for 2021 is probably around –8M. So we need to at least make 14M in cap space before signing any extensions. If we gonna extend everyone we will need to make 34.5M in cap space.

 

How to get to 34.5M and resign all 4 guys.

Cut Preston, Wagner, Kirksey, Lowry, Funchess, Jackson and restructure Rodgers.

We keep do not resign Jamaal.

Cut Preston, Wagner, Kirksey, Lowry, Funchess and restructure Rodgers.

We keep Jamaal but not Aaron or Kevin

Cut Wagner, Kirksey, Lowry, Funchess, Jackson and restructure Rodgers.

 

Scenario no. 2

Cap is 190M, to keep everyone we need to make around 20M in cap space. Much much easier to do. One way to do it would be cutting Wagner, Lowry and restructuring Rodgers. As you can see there are multiple combinations in this case. I just think is not very realistic to expect the cap to be so high.

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Good thread.

The Covid cap squeeze does seem to hit us in a really bad year. Not drafting replacements for some of these guys and especially an OT prospect was a bad move. We are shelling out for Turner and other stop gaps because TT left the cupboards bare for years. I do need to emphasize that I love our day 3 picks and I have hope for Dillon but still don't like an RB at that pick. Likewise Love depends on how Love performs.

 

It will be a tough off season. Hard decisions upcoming. And no easy solution except kicking the can down the road.

 

Of the four guys to resign, Bakh is the most obvious release. I don't know how they view King. It does seem the plan was to resign Bakh and our only backup plan would be to shift Jenkins to LT until we find a replacement. Davante is gone imo. Lazard, Williams, Jones are less in guaranteed then Adams will command. He'll be 20M +/ yr.

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How many teams next year are sitting pretty?  I have this unexplored idea in the back of my head that 75%+ of the teams out there are in similar situations and there is no way that 75% of the teams are going to start cutting their star players, that somehow, a solution will be done to inflate the 175 minimum.

I think the 165 proposed by the owners was a negotiating tactic.  They're going to take a hit this year, but being successful on the field is what increases the value of a franchise--and that will be hard to do if players like Bahktiari are potential cuts due to the lower cap.  BUT, it's also possible the owners are seeing this as an opportunity to deflate the value of contracts across the board--which is a billionaire's idea of a great idea--or justify cutting higher priced players who are underperforming relative to their contract--which is mostly about using the pandemic cap to avoid negative PR.

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I don't see the top players taking a pay cut. A few teams will be happy to pay Bakhtiari 20M. Guys in the 4-10M range are the ones who are going to suffer this situation the most.

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7 minutes ago, Smidgeon said:

How many teams next year are sitting pretty?  I have this unexplored idea in the back of my head that 75%+ of the teams out there are in similar situations and there is no way that 75% of the teams are going to start cutting their star players, that somehow, a solution will be done to inflate the 175 minimum.

The league would definitely have to come up with some solution to spread the pain of a severe cut over a few years. I can’t see how they would invite the chaos of over half the teams (maybe as much as 75% as you stated) to need to purge star contracts. Imagine what the free agent market would look like and what a hit it would be for fans of the teams and players to see the complete shuffling of rosters.

Right now, we don’t really have any facts to work with, but it wouldn’t be surprising to have a down or flat year. How drastic it is will determine the response but I’m sure all sides are using it as a bargaining chip as far as contracts are concerned. This would seem to favor management as far as leverage goes. 

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The cap space is going to massaged in some manner for 2021 that "borrows" from future years.   I feel it is in the best interest of both the NFL (owners) and NFLPA to not have many teams in cap hell if the cap goes down to $175M for 2021.

Looking at overthecap projections....they are just projections but they seem to be pretty close on this most years

2021 = $176M

2022 = $227.5M

2023 = $241M

 

Something like borrowing $10M from 2022 and $15M from 2023 now puts the numbers at

2021 = $201M

2022 = $217.5M

2023 = $226M

 

Flatter cap, but something that could increase if new TV deals are done and other streams of revenue is realized.  The MNF double header to get another prime time game.  Swapping in Tuesday night for Thursday night might be a better draw and sell from the NFLPA.  Extra bye week and a 17th game can also add some revenue.  

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30 minutes ago, squire12 said:

The cap space is going to massaged in some manner for 2021 that "borrows" from future years.   I feel it is in the best interest of both the NFL (owners) and NFLPA to not have many teams in cap hell if the cap goes down to $175M for 2021.

Looking at overthecap projections....they are just projections but they seem to be pretty close on this most years

2021 = $176M

2022 = $227.5M

2023 = $241M

 

Something like borrowing $10M from 2022 and $15M from 2023 now puts the numbers at

2021 = $201M

2022 = $217.5M

2023 = $226M

 

Flatter cap, but something that could increase if new TV deals are done and other streams of revenue is realized.  The MNF double header to get another prime time game.  Swapping in Tuesday night for Thursday night might be a better draw and sell from the NFLPA.  Extra bye week and a 17th game can also add some revenue.  

The 2022 and 2023 projections are preCOVID projections, they only changed the 2021. So forget about that. In fact, there is a high chance that the "real cap" is much lower than 175M and therefore part of that loss is redistributed in the next years. I believe that in the NFL/NFLPA agreement contemplated that actually (something like an even redistribution of the remanent loss y the next 4 years).

It's time to stop dreaming about having a higher cap. It's going to be 175M or something similar.

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2 hours ago, VonKarman said:

Preston Smith (8M+ in cap space). For me this is an obvious one. One of the Smiths need to get cut or traded, a Preston is the correct answer.

There's always the restructure/extend scenario.  Not saying it's a given, but they're not going to get rid of a productive pass rusher for the hell of it.  In terms of easy cuts, Kirksey and Wagner are easy cuts based off of right now.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

There's always the restructure/extend scenario.  Not saying it's a given, but they're not going to get rid of a productive pass rusher for the hell of it.  In terms of easy cuts, Kirksey and Wagner are easy cuts based off of right now.

Yeah, that's why a put the cut/trade tag. I believe we can easily trade Preston and maybe Turner.

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If we pay both Aaron Jones AND Jamaal we are doomed. I'd rather pay Jamaal and give 33's money to Linsley. I think we have seen that paying a RB is hardly worth it - what Carolina is doing right now should be evidence enough. 

As @CWood21 mentioned I would hope for a restructure on Preston and anyone else we can get away with. Cut Turner and Make an OL of Bakh - Elgton- Linsley - ? -  Wagner work. ? could be rookie who moves to RT later, or can use a bum at RG and have a good rookie at RT. idk

Edited by JBURGE

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This thread is majorly depressing.

Normally I would say don’t ever sign a RB to a hefty contract but Aaron Jones is a giant part of what we do and makes our offense so much better.

Lets just win it all this year and deal with the repercussions later...

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3 hours ago, VonKarman said:

The 2022 and 2023 projections are preCOVID projections, they only changed the 2021. So forget about that. In fact, there is a high chance that the "real cap" is much lower than 175M and therefore part of that loss is redistributed in the next years. I believe that in the NFL/NFLPA agreement contemplated that actually (something like an even redistribution of the remanent loss y the next 4 years).

It's time to stop dreaming about having a higher cap. It's going to be 175M or something similar.

I just don't think $175 million is possible. 14 teams already have more than $175 million committed for 2021.

The Cowboys are the closest team to the 175million and under, at 173. They don't have Dak signed.

The Titans are the next closest at 172. They only have 33 players signed through 2021.

The 49ers are the next closest at 168. They only have 37 players through 2021, and don't have a single CB.

 

Going to $175 absolutely GUTS every team. The NFLPA is going to flip their **** when 2/3 of veterans get cut in order to just fill rosters up to 53 players and keep it under $175, and that says nothing about Free Agents just not getting signed. 

 

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12 hours ago, JaireAlex said:

Good thread.

The Covid cap squeeze does seem to hit us in a really bad year. Not drafting replacements for some of these guys and especially an OT prospect was a bad move. We are shelling out for Turner and other stop gaps because TT left the cupboards bare for years. I do need to emphasize that I love our day 3 picks and I have hope for Dillon but still don't like an RB at that pick. Likewise Love depends on how Love performs.

This is where I have to blame Dom for everything. While we were too busy trying to satisfy unrealistic and theoretic goals Dom set out, we robbed ourselves of keeping the offense on par with where it was for a good 5 years of drafting; we even backed up that tom****ery with the entire first half of the 2015 draft just because a borderline PS player screwed us on ST. This is on the entire organization and Dom tarnished the legacy of MM, TT, and robbed AR of multiple Super Bowls. 

In short, you can't blame TT for where we were 3 years ago. There were several other factors that clouded his judgment, especially on draft day...

 

We have recovered, at least temporarily and given how well this team has gelled, which is to MLF's credit, we need to take advantage of an oddly laid out season which should play into the win-this-week narrative that so many teams try to establish. Let us also not forget that we have cultivated a mindset of sacrificing to win with this current leadership, which should influence certain players to sign team-friendly contracts in order to continue our success, which should breed success. So forget about what WAS, and let's keep an optimistic attitude celebrating what IS knowing that our needs are still well-defined and achievable. 

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12 hours ago, Refugee said:

The league would definitely have to come up with some solution to spread the pain of a severe cut over a few years. I can’t see how they would invite the chaos of over half the teams (maybe as much as 75% as you stated) to need to purge star contracts. Imagine what the free agent market would look like and what a hit it would be for fans of the teams and players to see the complete shuffling of rosters.

Right now, we don’t really have any facts to work with, but it wouldn’t be surprising to have a down or flat year. How drastic it is will determine the response but I’m sure all sides are using it as a bargaining chip as far as contracts are concerned. This would seem to favor management as far as leverage goes. 

Great post.  I would tend to agree.  There's going to be something done to help smother the hit that teams are taking.  Either it's going to be a situation where teams can borrow from future caps (up until a certain point), or as a league they're going to be able to steal from future years.  It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

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6 hours ago, Siman08/OH said:

This thread is majorly depressing.

Normally I would say don’t ever sign a RB to a hefty contract but Aaron Jones is a giant part of what we do and makes our offense so much better.

Lets just win it all this year and deal with the repercussions later...

The structure is always going to be revealing.  I mean, look at how Kenny Clark's structure is.  It pretty much suppresses the cap hit in 2021 and spreads it out over the last 3 years.

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