Which receiver should be acquired to help the offense improve?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

23 minutes ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

I’m more worried about RB. Ingram is already hurt and so far Dobbins doesn’t look good at all.

Strong disagree. Get him in space and this happens.

[Letsch80]

22 minutes ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

I’m more worried about RB. Ingram is already hurt and so far Dobbins doesn’t look good at all.

What exactly has transpired to make you think Dobbins doesn't look good?? The guy has been given little to no opportunity to show what he can do and when he has he has popped. Look at his YPC!!

[Danand]

8 minutes ago, Letsch80 said:

What exactly has transpired to make you think Dobbins doesn't look good?? The guy has been given little to no opportunity to show what he can do and when he has he has popped. Look at his YPC!!

Those YPC are inflated by 2-4 big runs, some of them in garbage time against the Texans

[DontTazeMeBro]

8 minutes ago, Letsch80 said:

What exactly has transpired to make you think Dobbins doesn't look good?? The guy has been given little to no opportunity to show what he can do and when he has he has popped. Look at his YPC!!

Why would I do that? I watch the games. That would basically be gaslighting myself. 
 

The YPC is pulled up by two runs in games where he only touched it once or twice. When he’s gotten a little bit of volume he’s failed. And tbh he’s looked like a soft runner.
 

 

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

Why would I do that? I watch the games. That would basically be gaslighting myself. 
 

The YPC is pulled up by two runs in games where he only touched it once or twice. When he’s gotten a little bit of volume he’s failed. And tbh he’s looked like a soft runner.
 

 

Wow this is a garbage take. He looks powerful and quick.  

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

Why would I do that? I watch the games. That would basically be gaslighting myself. 
 

The YPC is pulled up by two runs in games where he only touched it once or twice. When he’s gotten a little bit of volume he’s failed. And tbh he’s looked like a soft runner.

And when has that been? The most carries he's seen in a game was last week against Philly (9/28), and yes he failed but so did everyone else. Ingram (5/20) and Gus (14/26) didn't fare any better.

Dobbins, in contrast to Edwards and Ingram, has been very explosive when he's actually had space to make plays, and that's the major difference. He might not be the best between-the-tackles runner we have (Edwards), but in terms of playmaking ability and explosiveness and ability to make guys miss, Dobbins is by far our best runner there.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Danand said:

Those YPC are inflated by 2-4 big runs, some of them in garbage time against the Texans

What difference does it make if it’s from a few runs or not? Also a lot of Gus Edwards yards could be classified as “garbage yards” if we’re considering late in game carries. Does that somehow make his production inflated? Defenses late in games KNOW we’re trying to run it, if anything that makes such carries impressive In their own right.

Was Barry Sanders numbers also inflated because he had runs where he got tackled behind the LOS but then had game breaking runs on others (not actually comparing JKD to Sanders, but just the production aspect). Dobbins has games where he gets 1 and 2 carries and then makes the most of them. Against Philly he only got 9 carries and still had a run that popped.

Should we also say his numbers are deflated because of the quality of the OL play when he’s taken carries? Where he’s seeing defenders immediately at his feet the moment he touches it? Do we takeaway such runs from his production? And if so I’d be willing to bet if we take away such runs yet also take away the outlier long runs, he’d still be leading our running backs in rush YPC. So fair is fair you can’t rob someone of something they excelled in but then hold onto the negative plays as well. That’d make no sense.

1 hour ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

Why would I do that? I watch the games. That would basically be gaslighting myself. 
 

The YPC is pulled up by two runs in games where he only touched it once or twice. When he’s gotten a little bit of volume he’s failed. And tbh he’s looked like a soft runner.
 

 

So what? Same as above. Remove those runs and you need to remove the plays where the OL has him getting blown up in the backfield. If you do that he’s still averaging more YPC and certainly more YPT. The only “fair” way to look at this would be through the run splits for down and distance. If outlier runs exist, they wouldn’t exist within each split with Dobbins small amount of carries and if they do it proves that he’s at least a high level threat that defense’s have to account for the big play when he’s on the field... as he can make it happen at anytime.

Here are our three RBs ranked situationally in (carries, YPC.)

1st and 10: JKD (15, 5.5), Ingram (29, 4.0), Gus (23, 3.9)
1st and <10: Ingram (4, 3.0), JKD (2, 2.5), n/a
1st and >10: Gus (2, 1.5), n/a, n/a
2nd and 4-6: JKD (2, 7.0), Gus (9, 5.0), Ingram (8, 2.8)
2nd and 7-9: Ingram (1-, 20.0), Gus (2, 7.5), JKD (1, -2.0)
2nd and 10+: JKD (2, 7.0), Gus (4, 5.3), Ingram (3, 3.3)
3rd and 4-6: JKD (1, 6.0), Gus (1, 2.0), n/a
3rd/4th and short: Ingram (2, 15.0), Gus (7, 6.1), JKD (1, 1.0)

So we have 8 different run splits and JKD is the leader in 4 of them. Ingram leads in 3 and Gus leads by default in the other.

Yet of our runners the RB most propped up by outlier runs to lead a category appears to be Ingram with his 20.0 and 15.0 splits largely based on big runs off limited carries. In similar circumstance Dobbins is producing quality runs, but nothing within the “outlier” category that would throw those particular splits off statistically.

Whats more Ingram trails in two splits just like JKD. He just has had double the opportunity to prove that he’s the kind of back that behind this OL will average 4.5 YPC while Dobbins has had half the opportunities to show he can average 6.2 YPC. Both runners have had a few outlier runs to their credit. The biggest difference is that JKD has turned such runs into a long of 44 while Ingram to a long of 30.

If we’re deflating JKD for outlier runs for a 3.3 YPC average, than let’s be consistent here and rob Ingram of his outlier 20 and 30 yard runs where he averages 3.6 YPC. Gus robbed of his biggest two runs would average 3.7 YPC.

So who would we rather have a back that averages less than 4 YPC but will rip off the 30 and 40 yard runs with decent consistency? Or the backs who average less than 4 YPC but will sometimes rip off the 20 to 30 yard runs on rare occasions?

The difference between 3.3 and 3.7 is quite nominal. However the difference between 4.5 and 6.2 is not. Until JKD gets more carries and proves them to be wasted, there is no evidence to suggest that he’s not good... unless we’re also classifying Ingram and Gus as “not good” as well.

[DreamKid]

Uh Oh, you guys activated 'Post Titan' @diamondbull424 with your Dobbins slander lol...

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

27 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

What difference does it make if it’s from a few runs or not? Also a lot of Gus Edwards yards could be classified as “garbage yards” if we’re considering late in game carries. Does that somehow make his production inflated? Defenses late in games KNOW we’re trying to run it, if anything that makes such carries impressive In their own right.

Was Barry Sanders numbers also inflated because he had runs where he got tackled behind the LOS but then had game breaking runs on others (not actually comparing JKD to Sanders, but just the production aspect). Dobbins has games where he gets 1 and 2 carries and then makes the most of them. Against Philly he only got 9 carries and still had a run that popped.

Should we also say his numbers are deflated because of the quality of the OL play when he’s taken carries? Where he’s seeing defenders immediately at his feet the moment he touches it? Do we takeaway such runs from his production? And if so I’d be willing to bet if we take away such runs yet also take away the outlier long runs, he’d still be leading our running backs in rush YPC. So fair is fair you can’t rob someone of something they excelled in but then hold onto the negative plays as well. That’d make no sense.

So what? Same as above. Remove those runs and you need to remove the plays where the OL has him getting blown up in the backfield. If you do that he’s still averaging more YPC and certainly more YPT. The only “fair” way to look at this would be through the run splits for down and distance. If outlier runs exist, they wouldn’t exist within each split with Dobbins small amount of carries and if they do it proves that he’s at least a high level threat that defense’s have to account for the big play when he’s on the field... as he can make it happen at anytime.

Here are our three RBs ranked situationally in (carries, YPC.)

1st and 10: JKD (15, 5.5), Ingram (29, 4.0), Gus (23, 3.9)
1st and <10: Ingram (4, 3.0), JKD (2, 2.5), n/a
1st and >10: Gus (2, 1.5), n/a, n/a
2nd and 4-6: JKD (2, 7.0), Gus (9, 5.0), Ingram (8, 2.8)
2nd and 7-9: Ingram (1-, 20.0), Gus (2, 7.5), JKD (1, -2.0)
2nd and 10+: JKD (2, 7.0), Gus (4, 5.3), Ingram (3, 3.3)
3rd and 4-6: JKD (1, 6.0), Gus (1, 2.0), n/a
3rd/4th and short: Ingram (2, 15.0), Gus (7, 6.1), JKD (1, 1.0)

So we have 8 different run splits and JKD is the leader in 4 of them. Ingram leads in 3 and Gus leads by default in the other.

Yet of our runners the RB most propped up by outlier runs to lead a category appears to be Ingram with his 20.0 and 15.0 splits largely based on big runs off limited carries. In similar circumstance Dobbins is producing quality runs, but nothing within the “outlier” category that would throw those particular splits off statistically.

Whats more Ingram trails in two splits just like JKD. He just has had double the opportunity to prove that he’s the kind of back that behind this OL will average 4.5 YPC while Dobbins has had half the opportunities to show he can average 6.2 YPC. Both runners have had a few outlier runs to their credit. The biggest difference is that JKD has turned such runs into a long of 44 while Ingram to a long of 30.

If we’re deflating JKD for outlier runs for a 3.3 YPC average, than let’s be consistent here and rob Ingram of his outlier 20 and 30 yard runs where he averages 3.6 YPC. Gus robbed of his biggest two runs would average 3.7 YPC.

So who would we rather have a back that averages less than 4 YPC but will rip off the 30 and 40 yard runs with decent consistency? Or the backs who average less than 4 YPC but will sometimes rip off the 20 to 30 yard runs on rare occasions?

The difference between 3.3 and 3.7 is quite nominal. However the difference between 4.5 and 6.2 is not. Until JKD gets more carries and proves them to be wasted, there is no evidence to suggest that he’s not good... unless we’re also classifying Ingram and Gus as “not good” as well.

[Danand]

I expected a post like that tbh.

And that is fair. DB likes Dobbins so he will do a lot to justify his production. Yet, no matter how you break it down, Dobbins has 3 runs that accounts for 82 of his 154 rush yards. That means he has 22 carries for the rest 72 yards.

My guess is the argumet then will be it is not his fault due to bad blocking. That argument however is also applicant to Gus and Ingram, who also has big runs to pump up their tota l YPC. Its just not an argument to justify any of them has been good though.

 

[DreamKid]

22 minutes ago, Danand said:

That means he has 22 carries for the rest 72 yards.

This stat line reminds of the ol' Terrance West days. 

[Danand]

8 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

This stat line reminds of the ol' Terrance West days. 

To be fair, it is also often a Derrick Henry statline. He has just been good at breaking that long run eventually and do it consistently.

Adrian Peterson had the same tendency. Gaining 1 yard, 2 yard, minus 1 yard, 20 yards, 1 yard, 3 yards, 35 yards.

Some offenses live and die by that type of production.

When we had Ray Rice, atleast as I recall it, we had more consistent production in terms of positive yardage, also from dumb offs and swing passes, My hope is Dobbins develop into the same type of player with the ability to be an allround contributor. And my hope is we manage to extend Gus so we have a hammer.

Justice Hill is the forgotten man, but he still offers another dimension of speed I think could be used more, especially of Ingram has to sit out

[RavensfanRD]

Not being funny, but this may spell the end of Ingram. (For the record, I also think he's getting cut next year) But with him being hurt, I think Dobbins about to take over and that will be the story of Ingram.

[DreamKid]

49 minutes ago, Danand said:

Justice Hill is the forgotten man, but he still offers another dimension of speed I think could be used more, especially of Ingram has to sit out

I'd still like to see Hill given a chance here and there this season. I mean why not, right? It's not like our running game is functioning perfectly as of now. And Hill has game breaker qualities.

Would love to see some of his MPH numbers on kick coverage too, cause he is noticeably faster than everyone out there. This could be Edwards and Ingram's last season with the team. Improve our blocking up front and get the progression we're banking on out of Hill and Dobbins and boy- those two could be quite the playmaking duo going forward. 

[DreamKid]

Didn't he have some fans in here, a couple draft seasons ago?