Building Blocks for the Future

[Just Want A Title]

This might be similar to other posts.  We need to take a hard look at what players on our roster really are long-term solutions for what we need.  Bob Quin has brought in some good players but it may be too little, too late.  That being said:

 

QB--Stafford has some gas left in the tank.  Blough has showed enough to justify keeping him as at least our future #2QB.  Chase Daniel doesn't give us anything that Blough doesn't already provide.  We need a young QB to develop unless Blough shows he is the guy.

RB-Swift is a keeper.  Bo Scarborough should be the power runner we need but needs to be more consistent.  Kerryon Johnson is a role player because of his health issues.

TE--Hockenson is starting to flash.  Jesse James isn't worth the money we paid.  There are nothing but questions behind TJ Hockenson

OT-Taylor Decker has become a pretty good LT and deserved an extension.  Tyrell Crosby is finally developing into a solid RT.  Nothing but questions after that.

OG/OC-The one area we are string is interior OL.  Ragnow is a future pro-bowler.  Jonah Jackson has been steady despite the fact that he is a rookie.  Joe Dahl is solid.  Logan Stenburg should be solid given some time.  Back-up C is a question

WR-Kenny Golladay, Jamal Agnew and Quentez Cephus are long-term pieces.  Not sure the coaching staff is doing a good enough job of getting Agnew involved on the game plans.  Marvin Jones seems to have lost some speed so we need a replacement.  We need to add some players at this position

DE-We over paid for Trey Flowers but he is a pretty good DE.  Romeo Okwara is a solid player but this staff doesn't know how to use him.  Nothing but questions after that.  It would nice to say Austin Bryant has a future but he has disappeared.  This might be on the coaching staff.  The pass-rush needs a major upgrade

DT-John Penisini looks like a solid role player and could develop into a starter.  John Atkins (not playing this year is also a solid role player.  Nothing beyond that.  The pass-rush needs a major upgrade

LB-Jahlani Tavai might be a solid player but this staff can't seem get him to develop.  Reggie Ragland is solid.  Jamie Collins has a few good years.  Not much long-term potential beyond that.  

CB-Jeff Okudau needs time but he should develop.  Amani Oruwariye has developed into a decent #2CB. Justin Coleman should be around for a little while.  Tony McRae seems like a good depth player.  Not much after that but its tough to judge this group too harshly given the putrid state of our our pass-rush.  

S-We have a lot of talent at safety.  Tracy Walker is really good.  Duron Harmon has been really good also.  Will Harris has all the physical tools you can ask for and is a solid role player at this point.  Jayron Kearse is huge and has a lot left if the coaching staff can use him correctly.  Miles Killebrew is an enigma but is a really good special teams player.  Killerew and Austin Bryant might benefit the most from a new coahing staff.  CJ Moore is solid depth.

Special Teams-Jack Faox has been really good and should be around a long time.  Prater has good right now but we need to plan for a post-Prater future in 2-3 years.

 

The Bottom Line (for me):  This team has talent and should have record.  The offense is one or to fast WRs away from being dominant.  We would be smart to start planning for life after Matthew Stafford even if it is 2-4 years away.  The defense has some real talent in the secondary.  However, the front-7 needs major upgrades at DE, DT, OLB and ILB with a focus on creating a dominant pass-rush.  

Thoughts?

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

I agree completely. Throw in one more offseason of gains along the defensive front 7 and I think this team is capable of competing with most teams in the league.

[Louis Friend]

QB- Stafford is still my guy, but not sold on anything behind him.

RB- Swift is flashing, AD is still playing well but is not a long term player. Kerryon needs to decide if he wants to play in the NFL or not. This group has potential.

TE- Hockenson was a wasted #8 overall pick at this point. He had a great first career game against Arizona and has been trash since. Jesse James is a blocking TE who is not worth the contract we gave him. Wouldn’t mind bringing in a 3rd TE to see what they can bring. 

WR- Golladay deserves to get paid. Cephus and Hall are good depth backs. I wouldn’t re-sign Marvin Jones or Amendola at this point. 

OL- Decker, Ragnow, Jackson and Stenberg are our future. 3 of the 4 are starters and playing well. We need another tackle. I was hoping Crosby would be that guy but he can’t seem to stay on the field. Hopefully he can turn it around.

Our defense is a mess. I like Oruwariye and Okudah long term. Not sure there is anything else I am confident with long term on defense on any level. Our safeties are bad, our LBers cannot cover, our DL cannot pressure. For a “defensive guru”, Patricia really has **** the bed here. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Louis Friend

[LionArkie]

11 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

QB- Stafford is still my guy, but not sold on anything behind him.

RB- Swift is flashing, AD is still playing well but is not a long term player. Kerryon needs to decide if he wants to play in the NFL or not. This group has potential.

TE- Hockenson was a wasted #8 overall pick at this point. He had a great first career game against Arizona and has been trash since. Jesse James is a blocking TE who is not worth the contract we gave him. Wouldn’t mind bringing in a 3rd TE to see what they can bring. 

WR- Golladay deserves to get paid. Cephus and Hall are good depth backs. I wouldn’t re-sign Marvin Jones or Amendola at this point. 

OL- Decker, Ragnow, Jackson and Stenberg are our future. 3 of the 4 are starters and playing well. We need another tackle. I was hoping Crosby would be that guy but he can’t seem to stay on the field. Hopefully he can turn it around.

Our defense is a mess. I like Oruwariye and Okudah long term. Not sure there is anything else I am confident with long term on defense on any level. Our safeties are bad, our LBers cannot cover, our DL cannot pressure. For a “defensive guru”, Patricia really has **** the bed here. 

This is pretty much where I am. I think Cepheus might turn out to be good. Defense I feel is spot on.

[Just Want A Title]

4 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

QB- Stafford is still my guy, but not sold on anything behind him.

RB- Swift is flashing, AD is still playing well but is not a long term player. Kerryon needs to decide if he wants to play in the NFL or not. This group has potential.

TE- Hockenson was a wasted #8 overall pick at this point. He had a great first career game against Arizona and has been trash since. Jesse James is a blocking TE who is not worth the contract we gave him. Wouldn’t mind bringing in a 3rd TE to see what they can bring. 

WR- Golladay deserves to get paid. Cephus and Hall are good depth backs. I wouldn’t re-sign Marvin Jones or Amendola at this point. 

OL- Decker, Ragnow, Jackson and Stenberg are our future. 3 of the 4 are starters and playing well. We need another tackle. I was hoping Crosby would be that guy but he can’t seem to stay on the field. Hopefully he can turn it around.

Our defense is a mess. I like Oruwariye and Okudah long term. Not sure there is anything else I am confident with long term on defense on any level. Our safeties are bad, our LBers cannot cover, our DL cannot pressure. For a “defensive guru”, Patricia really has **** the bed here. 

I am not sure how you can call Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon bad.  Will Harris was playing not so great but Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon are playing at pretty high levels right now, especially considering out lack of pass rush.  TJ Hockenson has made big strides from last year and definitely not trash.  His consistency is compensating for the decreasing effectiveness of Marvin Jones.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Just Want A Title
Forgot something

[Sllim Pickens]

12 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

I am not sure how you can call Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon bad.  Will Harris was playing not so great but Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon are playing at pretty high levels right now, especially considering out lack of pass rush.  TJ Hockenson has made big strides from last year and definitely not trash.  His consistency is compensating for the decreasing effectiveness of Marvin Jones.

Walker has not been good this year.  Harmon has been average. Now some of that may lie on the fact that the LBs are trash and the D LIne cant get pressure, but still I would not call S a building block or even close to it right now.  Both starters could be upgraded and both starters would make solid depth pieces.  

Hock has been solid.  I dont think he will ever be a Kelce, Gates, Gonzalez, Kittle type which you would expect out of a top 10 TE but he has been good.  If he was drafted in the early second round, more people would be ok with him. 

 

In regards to the original post, I think you overrate S and LB.  See above for S but for LB, Tavai has been one of the worst LBs in the league.  He likely will have a similar fate to teez Tabor if he doesn't figure it out asap.  He is playing like the 7th round prospect he was.  We need at least three pieces on the D line, 2/3 LBs, and 1/2 S for this D to be good.  Our D line is so void of talent aside from Flowers its scary that is could actually get this bad.  We need more WRs and will let the line stay together another year to see how they develop.  Vaitai has actually been pretty good as a RG instead of RT.  So overall we are I would say 7/8 players away from being a championship contender.  The problem is this front office hasnt shown the ability to find that many solid pieces in a single offseason. 

[LionArkie]

12 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

I am not sure how you can call Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon bad.  Will Harris was playing not so great but Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon are playing at pretty high levels right now, especially considering out lack of pass rush.  TJ Hockenson has made big strides from last year and definitely not trash.  His consistency is compensating for the decreasing effectiveness of Marvin Jones.

In terms of Hockenson, do you think his production is worth the #8 pick, or comparatively speaking, is his production trash for the #8 pick?
I'll give you trash is a very strong word, but considering he has been selected at#8 the stats aren't the best considering all positions not just TE.

[Lions017]

 When I think of building blocks, I think that our team (particularly on defense) is really lacking. 

Swift looks good. Stafford can still play. Decker and Ragnow are both really good, and Jackson seems like he has potential too. Golladay and Hockenson are good offensive pieces. 

The defense is a mess. Flowers and Collins are guys that are still good but are older. I hesitate to call them building blocks because they're older, so if the team does a rebuild they'll be at the end of their contracts in a couple of years. Pensini looks like a solid run stopper, but I'm not sure if he's a game-changer. The linebackers are a hot mess. Okudah has potential still, Amari has developed well, and Walker is decent. 

When I think "building blocks,"" I think of players that you can build around long-term, three to five years out. Guys like Ceephus and Tavai have potential and might fill a role, but I'm not sure if you build a team around those players. 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

 When I think of building blocks, I think that our team (particularly on defense) is really lacking. 

Swift looks good. Stafford can still play. Decker and Ragnow are both really good, and Jackson seems like he has potential too. Golladay and Hockenson are good offensive pieces. 

The defense is a mess. Flowers and Collins are guys that are still good but are older. I hesitate to call them building blocks because they're older, so if the team does a rebuild they'll be at the end of their contracts in a couple of years. Pensini looks like a solid run stopper, but I'm not sure if he's a game-changer. The linebackers are a hot mess. Okudah has potential still, Amari has developed well, and Walker is decent. 

When I think "building blocks,"" I think of players that you can build around long-term, three to five years out. Guys like Ceephus and Tavai have potential and might fill a role, but I'm not sure if you build a team around those players. 

 

I agree with your stance on building blocks.  Honestly right now our offense seems solid.  We have a good O line, decent weapons but could use a burner to stretch the field.  I would consider Golladay, Hockenson, and Swift building blocks.  The O line has a few as well.  

On D, Flowers is only 27 and has three years after this one on his deal.  I would consider him and Okudah our only building blocks, and Okudah simply due to draft capital and potential.  Everyone else is expendable and upgradable.  

[diehardlionfan]

On 10/19/2020 at 8:55 AM, LionArkie said:

In terms of Hockenson, do you think his production is worth the #8 pick, or comparatively speaking, is his production trash for the #8 pick?
I'll give you trash is a very strong word, but considering he has been selected at#8 the stats aren't the best considering all positions not just TE.

The only time draft position matters is draft day. Number 8 can’t be justified for a TE imho but it’s irrelevant now.

TJ has improved blocking and is starting to get more looks. Given another year of development I believe the Lions starting TE has been found.

[diehardlionfan]

My keepers are as follows.

Stafford unless an offer is to good to turn down. The Lions also have to be in position to draft one of the top QB prospects.

Golladay, Hockenson, Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Swift, Flowers, Coleman, Okudah, Muhlbach.

There are a few players that I would like to see more of which is good because this roster is weak and you can’t churn enough roster in one year to show large improvements.

The vast majority of this roster is nothing but players to fill holes and are replaceable.

[LionArkie]

16 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

My keepers are as follows.

Stafford unless an offer is to good to turn down. The Lions also have to be in position to draft one of the top QB prospects.

Golladay, Hockenson, Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Swift, Flowers, Coleman, Okudah, Muhlbach.

There are a few players that I would like to see more of which is good because this roster is weak and you can’t churn enough roster in one year to show large improvements.

The vast majority of this roster is nothing but players to fill holes and are replaceable.

Muhlbach, lol. I agree with your list, but never thought of Muhlbach.

[LionArkie]

10 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

The only time draft position matters is draft day. Number 8 can’t be justified for a TE imho but it’s irrelevant now.

TJ has improved blocking and is starting to get more looks. Given another year of development I believe the Lions starting TE has been found.

I do get where you are coming from, but I'm not sure I agree on only mattering on draft day. Doesn't draft position also influence salary? If so, it's a multi-year issue.  Furthermore, I think everyone compares production to draft position on a rookie contract.

[Sllim Pickens]

22 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I do get where you are coming from, but I'm not sure I agree on only mattering on draft day. Doesn't draft position also influence salary? If so, it's a multi-year issue.  Furthermore, I think everyone compares production to draft position on a rookie contract.

Agreed.  It matters when that fifth year option is picked up or declined.  It will cost likely 10M to keep TJ for a 5th year so its either a 4 year deal or it means he is a top 3 TE in the league. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

22 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Agreed.  It matters when that fifth year option is picked up or declined.  It will cost likely 10M to keep TJ for a 5th year so its either a 4 year deal or it means he is a top 3 TE in the league. 

Or (and you aren't denying this or anything), he signs an extension for a different cap hit.