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Official 2021 QB Thread


NYRaider

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1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

      Mac's star rose when people who watch whole games (e.g. PFF, geeks, scouts) checked in and when a team with superlative coaching and blocking joined the top three drafters.

The only one we aren't sure on there is NFL scouts. PFF grades Justin Fields as the #3 overall player in the class with Mac at 13 overall. The only online geek / scout that I could find that have Mac higher than Fields was Todd McShay. Pauline, draft network, nate tice, ben solak, trevor sikkema, mel kiper, bucky brooks, Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, Ted Nguyen. So its not driven by that. It's a narrative that's coming from the NFL which may be accurate or not accurate (I'm old enough to remember when Sharrif Floyd was  a top 3 pick). Schefter relayed that an NFL GM stated that the NFL has Mac much higher rated than the media, and perhaps that is the case, we will find out. But also not something I will take for granted as being truthful. 

It's lying season. We will see how it plays out in 4 weeks. I still think Mac likely ends up going as QB 4 or 5

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9 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     Wilson eventually edged out Fields (and Jones) because highlight reelers prefer strong arms to accurate ones. 

For sure. Wilson makes way more “wow” throws than Fields. 

9 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

Profilers consider Fields more raw than Wilson. 

I consider both to be very raw. It’s about equal, but I’d give the edge to Fields in terms of decision making. Fields processes slower, but he doesn’t put the ball in harms way all that much. 

9 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

  Mac's star rose when people who watch whole games (e.g. PFF, geeks, scouts) checked in and when a team with superlative coaching and blocking joined the top three drafters.

Some people just want to get in base with their QBs. Others want to swing for the fences. 

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I have no idea why the ESPN peeps decided Mac Jones was their guy, but it has been pretty blatant.

 

It's an unfortunate coincidence that every thing they love about him is something that is subjective and can in NO WAY be measured.  

Nothing from analytics, of examples on film, or anything quantifiable.  Nope, Mac Jones leads all the QBs in the categories that are opinion. Gosh, that's sooooo weird.  

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1 minute ago, massraider said:

I have no idea why the ESPN peeps decided Mac Jones was their guy, but it has been pretty blatant.

 

It's an unfortunate coincidence that every thing they love about him is something that is subjective and can in NO WAY be measured.  

Nothing from analytics, of examples on film, or anything quantifiable.  Nope, Mac Jones leads all the QBs in the categories that are opinion. Gosh, that's sooooo weird.  

National Championship = marketing and money. That's why they love him.

 

I feel bad for whatever team takes him in the first round. I've seen bigger reaches, but if he is higher than QB5 in this draft, the GM should be fired.

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9 minutes ago, Forge said:

Schefter relayed that an NFL GM stated that the NFL has Mac much higher rated than the media, and perhaps that is the case, we will find out. But also not something I will take for granted as being truthful. 

Interesting statement that "an NFL GM".  Implies singular.  Could be SF, could be NE, could  be KC, could be any of the 32 teams. 

As you said, it's lying season and only 3+ weeks to go!!!!

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18 minutes ago, Forge said:

The only one we aren't sure on there is NFL scouts.

"Scouts" in the broadest sense, including profilers.

PFF grades Justin Fields as the #3 overall player in the class with Mac at 33 overall.

True, when judging their entire college careers, before and after they had the full benefit of years of coaching.  In 2020, after this training, Mac Jones was #1 among 178 QBs in PFF's current draft guide.  (Add this to the reasons why he is considered the most coachable QB in the 2021 draft.)

I still think Mac likely ends up going as QB 4 or 5

As long as he ends up with San Francisco or New England he'll make his team a Super Bowl contender.  As you say, we'll see.

 

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7 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

True, when judging their entire college careers, before and after they had the full benefit of years of coaching.  In 2020, after this training, Mac Jones was #1 among 178 QBs in PFF's current draft guide.  (Add this to the reasons why he is considered the most coachable QB in the 2021 draft.)

 

I'm not sure what you're implying here. 

This is their most current big board

https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2021

Fields is #3, Mac #13 (the 33 most have been a prior one).  This is after the 2020 season and would be more a projection on how PFF feels that they should be drafted and what they would be as NFL players. 

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52 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm not sure what you're implying here. 

This is their most current big board

https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2021

Fields is #3, Mac #13 (the 33 most have been a prior one).  This is after the 2020 season and would be more a projection on how PFF feels that they should be drafted and what they would be as NFL players. 

They changed it a day or two ago from this

I do wish they wouldn't switch metrics.

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25 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

They changed it a day or two ago from this

I do wish they wouldn't switch metrics.

His PFF rank is still #13 in that screen shot (top left hand corner).

You're conflating his big board ranking with his PFF Grade. These are not the same. By their statistical grading system, he was the best QB in college football last year. They do not view him as a better NFL prospect than Wilson / Fields / Lawrence / or Lance, however. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

His PFF rank is still #13 in that screen shot (top left hand corner).

Yes, but you were right in saying that it was originally 33rd overall.  I guess Mac has momentum of a sort, even among geeks.

By their statistical grading system, he was the best QB in college football last year.

Exactly. I was talking about his 2020 PFF grade in isolation, as stated in their 2021 draft guide (that I still haven't refreshed).  (The changes in snap counts are odd.)

Thanks for the heads up.

 

 

 

 

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On 4/2/2021 at 4:03 PM, NYRaider said:

Throughout the season Fields was considered the consensus #2 QB, now there are some arguing he's anywhere between 3-5. Can anyone tell me why the perception has shifted so much? 

He’s got flaws, as do all the prospects.

Lawrence is going #1 simply because it’s franchise malpractice despite his issues.

Wilson’s only flaw that’s been highlighted is level of competition which you can’t really see for yourself until he gets into the building. He’s accurate, mobile, smart, has a strong arm and has been the best QB of the group this season. 

Jones has a limited ceiling but overall has had amazing trajectory. He’s the safe not sexy pick. Thing is he’s a guy you let fall to you not a guy you burn 2 1s and a 3 for. 

Lance has limited tape. Who is he and who he isn’t are still questions needed to be answered.

Fields concerns stem from the offense he comes from and his lack of timing and anticipation on throws. The offense in itself did him no favors when digging deep. He’s extremely talented though but his transition to pro reads and timing on intermediate throws is a huge question mark.

Its all about which flaws are worth the risk to certain teams. 

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On 4/3/2021 at 11:12 AM, massraider said:

  Nothing from analytics, of examples on film, or anything quantifiable.  Nope, Mac Jones leads all the QBs in the categories that are opinion. Gosh, that's sooooo weird.  

Nothing quantifiable? Eventually you guys will realize that the quarterbacks who manage astronomical yards per attempt in the 11 range are doing something that has rarely been accomplished in the history of the sport. Once that number shows up and is sustained it means the quarterback is playing at an absurdly high level. It cannot be explained away by system or coaching or teammates or level of opposition, no matter how desperately the subjective goofs persist.

Tape has a miserable record. Obviously that comment is never popular on sites like this, where somehow tape remains the mesmerizing mystical gold standard. Teams wouldn't be increasingly relying on analytics and explosiveness and stats, etc if tape owned even bare minimal competence, given so many direct parallels between the college and pro game. Instead the way tape performs at swing and miss it's like the college game has 4 players on the field at all times compared to 44 in the NFL.

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